Yeah, he's drastically improved his offense this year, but it's not because of simple bounces. He has a rocket of a shot and comes from a good offensive background.
If you go back to his BCHL days, he was nearly a PPG blueliner. He also had 35 points in his first full rookie AHL season in 08-09. Jumping from 18 points last year to 31 points this year isn't exactly a massive increase either. It's a common progression for a guy like him, especially when he finally gets himself onto a PP...which he finally did this year.
Defensively, yeah, he's a work in progress. But he's a big body who's fairly physical. He'll be fine in that area of his game. I would feel comfortable with him as a top 4 guy. He's not just a depth defender.
Do I think he's worth north of 4.5 million dollars? No. Will he get that? Most likely.
Nothing changed from year to year with Garrison only this year magically more of his shots have found the net. Its not like he all of a sudden learned to shoot this season, hes had the same shot his whole career. He's like any bottom 6er or bottom pairing guy, every one of those guys have one year where they put up significantly better stats compared to their career averages. Shoot even players like McCleod had a 15 goal season. It just happens, Garrison is just lucky it happened on a contract year.
Garrison is no more than a bottom pairing guy, that is probably good for 7-10 goal max and probably 25-30pts max. The Avs have plenty of players (Wilson, Gaunce just name a couple) that can give those numbers and are going to paid a lot less than Garrison (I guarantee some stupid team will give a 4mil+ per year contract for this guy). And guess what they will get a bottom pairing guy, that is average defensively and can give a few goals here and there.
Exactly. Ehrhoff IS making $10M this year salary, but his cap hit the next 8 years is only $4M.
Wisniewski IS making $7M in salary this year, but his cap hit for the next 5 years is $5.5M.
What the player makes in any given year isn't what's important, it's the cap hit.
It matters to the owner. *shrug* Hopefully ours lets Sherman do whatever is necessary to secure Suter if he hits FA. I'd love to give him one of those career contracts that'll likely be banned in the next CBA. That way even when he's old and not not worth the price in his later years, his actual salary will be greatly less than his cap so it wouldn't be that hard to ship him off to some young cap floor team like we were this year that could use his intelligence, guidance and monetary savings as the team wouldn't actually need to spend all of the money necessary to get to the cap floor due to his inflated cap hit in those years.
Nothing changed from year to year with Garrison only this year magically more of his shots have found the net. Its not like he all of a sudden learned to shoot this season, hes had the same shot his whole career. He's like any bottom 6er or bottom pairing guy, every one of those guys have one year where they put up significantly better stats compared to their career averages. Shoot even players like McCleod had a 15 goal season. It just happens, Garrison is just lucky it happened on a contract year.
Garrison is no more than a bottom pairing guy, that is probably good for 7-10 goal max and probably 25-30pts max. The Avs have plenty of players (Wilson, Gaunce just name a couple) that can give those numbers and are going to paid a lot less than Garrison (I guarantee some stupid team will give a 4mil+ per year contract for this guy). And guess what they will get a bottom pairing guy, that is average defensively and can give a few goals here and there.
Agree to disagree I guess. I'm a fan of his and have followed his game for the last 3 seasons. Like I said, the biggest reason for his growth this year is added PP time and confidence in his ability to finally provide offence.
And it's funny that you are so sure that he is a "bottom pairing" defender. I think Florida's fans and coaches would disagree. They are a playoff team and he is averaging 23:43 of ice time this season. That's quite a bit for a guy who isn't good enough to even be in a team's top 4.
When you look at his PP stats:
He went from 1:33 of PP time a game last year (with 0 goals and only 3 assists) to 2:34 of PP time a game this year (with 9 goals and 3 assists).
Sure, his shots are just 'magically finding the net this year'.
But with all this being said, I don't want him on our team if he's going to cost us over 4 million dollars, which he will surely get. It would be nice to find a guy that is somewhat of a Quincey replacement, but I think it can be found elsewhere.
Agree to disagree I guess. I'm a fan of his and have followed his game for the last 3 seasons. Like I said, the biggest reason for his growth this year is added PP time and confidence in his ability to finally provide offence.
And it's funny that you are so sure that he is a "bottom pairing" defender. I think Florida's fans and coaches would disagree. They are a playoff team and he is averaging 23:43 of ice time this season. That's quite a bit for a guy who isn't good enough to even be in a team's top 4.
When you look at his PP stats:
He went from 1:33 of PP time a game last year (with 0 goals and only 3 assists) to 2:34 of PP time a game this year (with 9 goals and 3 assists).
Sure, his shots are just 'magically finding the net this year'.
But with all this being said, I don't want him on our team if he's going to cost us over 4 million dollars, which he will surely get. It would be nice to find a guy that is somewhat of a Quincey replacement, but I think it can be found elsewhere.
Well said and I agree completely.
The problem with guys like Garrison is that they are sort of in a Jeff Finger situation. The question becomes, has this player finally 'made it' and reached his full potential or is he just exceeding all expectations.
I don't know the answer but I don't want the Avs to be the team that finds out.
Reading the comments from David Jones and Jay McClement in Dater's article today, I think we will lose both in free agency. They both seemed to want to remain but they have no idea what the Avs' intentions are with respect to a contract. I think Jones will be in high demand due to a sparse market for scoring wingers after Parise. McClement will have value to teams as a third line penalty-killing center with decent faceoff skills.
McCleod could also be valued as a checker with fighting skills (the days of a fighting only goon seem to be gone).
I think it is a distinct possibility that Jones, McClement, McCleod, O'Brien, and Hunwick all depart via free agency. O'Brien and Hunwick may not be a surprise with the number of defensive prospects that we have ready to potentially step up (Barrie, Elliott, and Gaunce with Siemens on the horizon in a couple of years).
I do think that Hejduk will be back, albeit at a lower cap hit than $3 million.
The possible loss of Jones, McClement, and McCleod could hurt in terms of their size and grit. We have a small forward group in general with no forward prospects with size on the horizon (other than possibly Brad Malone).
Gawd, they better not lose McClement. Jones I'm pretty sure will bolt, but they need to get McClement signed pronto. Way too valuable to the PK, especially with Winnik now gone.
If McClement leaves, I will be surprised. There's too many reasons for him to stay.
It'll certaintly have a similar feeling to the way Bruno and Lappy departed the teams if he goes.
McLeod I couldn't care less. He's a good teammate and certaintly not entirely useless on the ice, but he's far from irreplaceable.
Jones... well I want him back. Some will see him as replaceable, but he is one of the better secondary scorers in the league in my opinion. A guy you can rely on to be around that 20 goal mark, provide some strength around the boards and do the dirty work in the crease. He could benefit from some consistency, but a lot of scorers could. He looked bad at times this year because we were relying on him to do the bulk of our goalscoring for awhile, on the #1 line. He's better served as a complimentary guy on any line. I think the pressure weighs on him too much when he's asked to play above his talent level.
I think the Avs would be willing to match the annual cap hits on McClement and Jones (assuming Jones does not sign with someone for an absurd annual hit), but I think the term will be the sticking point for management. Sherman and company seem very focused on not commiting cap dollars years in the future until the CBA is resolved. Unfortunately, the CBA does not expire for six weeks after the commencement of the UFA season, and both may sign with another team during that time.
I could see Sherman and company looking at three centered lines from Stastny-O'Reilly-Duchene and questioning the value of retaining McClement. I think this is particularly the case when you consider that Stastny and O'Reilly are superior faceoff players and Duchene is at McClement's level and seemingly improving. McClement brings a lot in terms of penalty killing and leadership intangibles, but I could see management passing.
Whatever management's intentions are at this point, all of the aforementioned soon to be UFAs would be wise to check out the UFA market and possible other offers. I would think that is the advice they will receive from their agents. If they hit free agency it will be a dicey proposition regarding their return.
I suppose the silver lining will be that we should have a hell of a lot of money to spend, even after considering raises to EJ, O'Reilly, Duchene, Downie, McGinn, and Wilson. Of course, management may not spend the difference in any event.
We very well could be even younger next season, although I could see one or two "veteran" type players being signed on one year deals (a la O'Brien).
I am not holding out much hope for a Suter or Parise signing, based on both the large interest from other teams in those players and uncertainty regarding the direction from management and ownership.
Remember when Avs don't do anything in the regular season? Yeah it's just a case here. Also remember how long it too to sign Stewart and Mueller? They take their time, but I wish they were more open to the players, IE: Brunette and Flash.
It doesn't sound to good that either will be coming back, but it does sound like both want to stay if given the right offer.
The issue with Silent Jay is that we have a glut of centers. With Stastny, Duchene, and O'Reilly the Avs will have ~14.5-16 million wrapped up in centers. Do you really want to use 2.5-3 million more on a guy that will play mostly PK and 4th line minutes? I would because he means so much to the PK unit, but I think that is what the Avs are looking at. If they think Malone is ready for the 4th line/PK specialist role, he is as good as gone.
Jones' issue is something else. The Avs wouldn't know what they are really getting. Are they getting the 25-30 goal scoring 2nd line winger or the 15-20 oft injured tweener who is good on the penalty kill. Jones will get paid like a 2nd line winger and get 3.5-4 million for somebody that needs scoring. I don't think the Avs would want to go over 3 to keep him. I'd rather over pay to have three solid scoring lines, but I think the Avs will be counting on Olver and Mueller to stay healthy and maybe adding a cheap, overlooked 35-40 point player looking for a rebound year. A Brad Boyes type.
O'Brien I think will be back. He is liked by his teammates and Sacco and is a solid player who is being overused. To have some stability I'm sure he would sign for a discount. Maybe a 3 year 1.75-2 million deal.
Hunwick I also think will be back. Sacco likes him and he has looked decent out there. The only question is will Hunwick want to be back on a low salary? If I was him I would want to play another year under Sacco as it would allow him to be put on display for a year to get a better contract. If he goes elsewhere he likely won't get the ice time he would here.
Hejduk will be back if he wants to. I doubt he will, and honestly it is time for him to retire.
McCleod will be gone. I might be the only person who will miss him, but he won't really be missed in the lineup.
Remember when Avs don't do anything in the regular season? Yeah it's just a case here. Also remember how long it too to sign Stewart and Mueller? They take their time, but I wish they were more open to the players, IE: Brunette and Flash.
Quincey mentioned it when he left and Jones mentioned it in Dater's article today. I think it is obviously something that is bothering some players.
I can understand management taking that approach on a case by case basis, but applying it to every player in every situation seems shortsighted. Unless, of course, the primary direction from ownership is to spend as little money as possible, in which case this approach provides some cover for management IMO.
I can understand management taking that approach on a case by case basis, but applying it to every player in every situation seems shortsighted. Unless, of course, the primary direction from ownership is to spend as little money as possible, in which case this approach provides some cover for management IMO.
I agree and I picture it as, corporate (management) and employees (players). Corporate makes rules to cover for themselves and lack of communication while the employees get the short end of the stick in certain situations and have no idea of what is going on. It has it's pros and cons, like Unions.
Remember when Avs don't do anything in the regular season? Yeah it's just a case here. Also remember how long it too to sign Stewart and Mueller? They take their time, but I wish they were more open to the players, IE: Brunette and Flash.
There is a difference between the way we treat UFA and the way we treat RFA players.
Often you will not hear why or even if there were negotiations with the UFA players we do not extend early.
Koci, Sakic, Foote, Liles are the only UFA players we have re-signed since 07/08, ignoring AHLers.
Clark, Lappy and Hejduk have all been extended as UFA players.
As long as Jones, McClement and O'Brien's salary demands aren't completely out of whack, I expect all of these players to return next season.
The Avs policy is not to re-negociate contracts during the season. That's not their policy only when it suits them, it's their policy all the time. The season isn't over yet, so it's normal that none of these guys have been in talks with the team much to the chagrin of one, Kyle Quincey.
Jones has been very good the past 2 months and I think they decided not to deal him at the deadline because they were intent on keeping him. [They could have gotten a 2nd round pick minimum for him, so they are going to keep him unless he wants over $3.5M per season, in my opinion]
McClement is a bit of a catch-22. He plays better when he's getting 3rd line minutes but his limited offense dictates that he's better suited as a 4th line Center with a big PK role. I understand he's going to want to get paid but if he's looking for anything north of $2M per season, I think he'll probably going to need to look elsewhere. That's not to say that he's not a usefull player but you can't really screw up your salary structure for a very good role player. That's my take on it anyways. If he's willing to accept something like $1.8M per season, I could see him coming back. If not, perhaps Brad Malone gets a longer look next fall.
O'Brien has been logging a lot of minutes and acquitting himself quite nicely for the most part. He's had a few tough games here and there but for the most part, he's been good. I don't believe he's good enough for a top pairing role nor should he in that position but the fact that he can play anywhere within the bottom 4 speaks for his versatility. I think he'll be looking at a deal with 3+ years on it at anywhere from $1.75M to $3M per season. I think somewhere between $2M and $2.5M would be good value for him and the club. We definitely need to acquire a minute munching D-man at some point though to take some of the pressure off because he's probably playing more than he should be and consequently making more mistakes.
Hunwick will likely sign elsewhere, I don't see him fitting in with Barrie, Elliott and Gaunce on the way up.
McLeod might be retained but I think he would need to accept a deal under $1M for it to happen. Every year, there seems to be some Zenon Kenopka (that guy is awesome on faceoffs 58.9% again this year) kind of player that signs for the minimum so it's not like he's irreplaceable. I wouldn't mind Cody returning but the price has to make sense and it doesn't appear he'll be back to anywhere close to 15 goals per season again anytime soon.
Ok everyone. Suter is a dream situation, but I don't think it will happen.
We need a veteran, stable left handed d-man that can play big minutes and that is a leader. Who is out there that we may be able to snag by trade? (Ideally a Timonen type player)
I could see the Avs trading their 1st round pick again if it gets them a good return.
Niklas Grossman is an interesting stay-at-home left hand shootingdefenseman that could play with EJ. He is young in his prime and fits the profile of the Hejda signing from last summer.
Unfortunately, I think Philly will make a strong play to keep him.
As far as left-hand shooting defenseman available in trade, maybe we should keep an eye on Keith Yandle in Phoenix. OEL is an emerging star and Rundblad and Gormley are ready to graduate to the NHL full-time IMO.
I would be very surprised if Phoenix is not in Quebec City next year. Paul Statsny might have some appeal to the fans in that city. Phoenix/Quebec lacks a front line center and forward scoring talent, so perhaps it is plausible, although I think the Avs would have to add a pick or a prospect.
But trading Stastny would further deplete our scoring depth up front as well.
I could see the Avs trading their 1st round pick again if it gets them a good return.
I don't see the Avs trading their 1st two years in a row. I think they only way they do that is if they decide next year at the dealine that a deep postseason run is possible.
I like mcclement but lets not mistake what he is. A somewhat slow, somewhat soft third/fourth line defensive specialist.
Do I think he's a good player? Yes, but is he worth that much money? No,especially when you have a more physical two way center behind him on the depth chart.
Wisniewski getting 7 million, ehrhoff 10, and people saying we can get Suter for a 6 something average.
