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Old
03-03-2012, 11:13 AM
  #1
TonySCV
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Kings Playoff Scenarios

Hi All:

Here's the current magic #'s. This assumes that Detroit, Vancouver, St. Louis and Nashville are unable to be caught by the Kings, so that leaves 4 spots for the remaining 11 teams. So long as 7 teams are eliminated before the Kings elimination # hits zero, the Kings will make the playoffs.

Magic numbers:

Updates from action through 3/14:

Chicago – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 29
Dallas – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 28 (-2)
San Jose – Games remaining: 13. Magic number: 27
Phoenix – Games remaining: 11. Magic number: 26 (-0)
----------------------------------------------------------
Los Angeles – Games remaining: 12 Elimination Number: 25
Calgary – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 25
Colorado – Games remaining: 10. Elimination number: 23 (-0)
Anaheim – Games remaining: 11. Elimination number: 16 (-0)
Minnesota – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 15
Edmonton – Games remaining: 12. Elimination number: 8 (-0)
Columbus – ELIMINATED

LA Kings W = 2 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings OTL = 1 point off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
LA Kings L = 0 points off of ALL opponents’ magic numbers
Opponent W = 0 points off of their magic number
Opponent OTL = 1 point off of their magic number
Opponent L = 2 points off of their magic number


Last edited by TonySCV: 03-15-2012 at 03:49 PM.
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Old
03-03-2012, 11:28 AM
  #2
Sydor25
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Just shows that the NW is a horrible division, they only had 1 playoff team last year too. It's all Central and Pacific teams fighting each other.

Almost the same teams as last season. Hopefully St. Louis replaces Anaheim and the Kings make it over Dallas.

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Old
03-03-2012, 11:41 AM
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Josh Deitell
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The last two games of the season against San Jose are basically going to decide if we make it or not. They might also decide if we win the division. Pretty wild

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03-03-2012, 11:48 AM
  #4
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Hoping it happens, and disappointed that they put themselves in this position, but overall I am not too concerned about it. I like the team composition and the core we have built. I've already known for some time that mathematically, we are in a lot of trouble, hopefully the guys respond and put on a show here for us in these final few games. We definitely have a team capable of pulling it off.

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Old
03-03-2012, 11:52 AM
  #5
TwoForRoughing
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As mentioned, we have to get some sort of winning streak going here. We've played extremely well the last three games (I thought we played great in Nashville...) and we need to build on that. We have a tough schedule coming up (although, MOST of the hard teams we face are at home) and tonight against ANA at home is a must win. That's a no-brainer.

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Old
03-03-2012, 11:57 AM
  #6
TonySCV
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Remaining schedule:

Anaheim** vs. Los Angeles
Los Angeles @ Nashville
Los Angeles @ Columbus
Los Angeles @ Detroit*
Los Angeles @ Chicago
Detroit vs. Los Angeles
Los Angeles @ Anaheim
Nashville vs. Los Angeles*
San Jose** vs. Los Angeles
St Louis** vs. Los Angeles
Boston vs. Los Angeles

Los Angeles @ Vancouver
Los Angeles @ Calgary
Los Angeles @ Edmonton
Los Angeles* @ Minnesota
Edmonton** vs. Los Angeles
San Jose vs. Los Angeles
Los Angeles @ San Jose


* = 2nd game of a back-to-back for LA.
** = 2nd game of back-to-back for the opposing team.
Bold = "tough" games to win.

Pre-diddly-ictions:

Anaheim** vs. Los Angeles - W
Los Angeles @ Nashville - L
Los Angeles @ Columbus - W
Los Angeles* @ Detroit - L
Los Angeles @ Chicago - W
Detroit vs. Los Angeles - OTL
Los Angeles @ Anaheim - W
Nashville vs. Los Angeles* - L
San Jose** vs. Los Angeles - W
St Louis** vs. Los Angeles - W
Boston vs. Los Angeles - OTL
Los Angeles @ Vancouver - L
Los Angeles @ Calgary - OTL
Los Angeles @ Edmonton - W
Los Angeles* @ Minnesota - W
Edmonton** vs. Los Angeles - W
San Jose vs. Los Angeles - W
Los Angeles @ San Jose - L

11-5-3.


Last edited by TonySCV: 03-03-2012 at 12:09 PM.
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Old
03-03-2012, 11:57 AM
  #7
Josh Deitell
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Something to keep in mind as well: the Sharks project 5 points ahead of us and we play three games against them down the stretch. That's a potential six point swing right there.

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03-03-2012, 12:05 PM
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TonySCV
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The unfortunate part is that the team we need to catch (Dallas) we don't play again.

Dallas' remaining schedule:

Sun Mar 4, 2012 Stars Flames
Tue Mar 6, 2012 Stars Canucks
Thu Mar 8, 2012 Sharks Stars

Sat Mar 10, 2012 Ducks Stars
Tue Mar 13, 2012 Stars Wild
Wed Mar 14, 2012 Stars* Jets
Fri Mar 16, 2012 Blackhawks Stars
Tue Mar 20, 2012 Coyotes Stars
Thu Mar 22, 2012 Canucks Stars

Sat Mar 24, 2012 Flames Stars
Mon Mar 26, 2012 Stars Flames
Wed Mar 28, 2012 Stars Oilers
Fri Mar 30, 2012 Stars Canucks
Sat Mar 31, 2012 Stars* Sharks
Tue Apr 3, 2012 Sharks Stars
Thu Apr 5, 2012 Stars Predators

(Blues will be resting players)
Sat Apr 7, 2012 Blues Stars

Bold = "tough" games to win.
* = back-to-back (only 2 vs. the Kings 3)

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Old
03-03-2012, 12:17 PM
  #9
Jason Lewis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Josh Deitell View Post
The last two games of the season against San Jose are basically going to decide if we make it or not. They might also decide if we win the division. Pretty wild
On top of that...they also might decide wether SJ makes the playoffs or not. At least the way they are playing right now.

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03-03-2012, 12:29 PM
  #10
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I can see a mix match of things happening besides our having to only allow our selves 5 more losses.

SJ is up and down and PHO could struggle too (though they seem to be incapable of this they also have been known to be streaky in the past so it is possible).


There are several scenarios that are actually possible that might help us along the way.

That said, if we aren't capable of finishing the season with the type of record that we are said to need then will we be ready for the playoffs?

I think we can do it and if we get in have a great shot at doing allot of damage.

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03-03-2012, 12:31 PM
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I know I'm jumping the ship here a little bit, but I actually wouldn't mind facing Vancouver in the 1st round. Detroit, on the other hand.

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03-03-2012, 12:34 PM
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Jason Lewis
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I am trying not to get disheartened but when I look at our remaining games I am scared. Some super tough opponents.

Vancouver, Nashville twice, San Jose tree times, Detroit twice, Boston once, Blues once...

some reaaaallly tough ones.

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Old
03-03-2012, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaygokings View Post
I am trying not to get disheartened but when I look at our remaining games I am scared. Some super tough opponents.

Vancouver, Nashville twice, San Jose tree times, Detroit twice, Boston once, Blues once...

some reaaaallly tough ones.
Kings seem to play better against the top teams though. At least they tend to "show up".

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03-03-2012, 02:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaygokings View Post
I am trying not to get disheartened but when I look at our remaining games I am scared. Some super tough opponents.

Vancouver, Nashville twice, San Jose tree times, Detroit twice, Boston once, Blues once...

some reaaaallly tough ones.
Some those Teams I fully expect to check out Mental (wise), It's Human nature to let up once they have a spot locked up in the dance.

I know seeding is important, but I bet some of those teams have letdown games in March. San Jose is really the only team Fighting for their playoff lives.

The Kings will be desperate I hope.

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03-03-2012, 02:24 PM
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I do not fear vancouver at all, if that is our fate then so be it. But look at our schedule... ouch

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03-03-2012, 03:01 PM
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Definitely will be exciting down the stretch. By no means is it over, but it will definitely put this team to the test. We've been looking for that balance of defense and offense and if the last three games are any indication, then I think we'll make it.

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03-03-2012, 07:56 PM
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Only 6 games vs. non PO teams?

out of 18 games left?

We can't afford many OT or SO losses, especially the latter,

and we need to get 1 pt from almost every game,

very tough task but can be done if we get on a roll,

and SJ might not have any thing to play for in the last couple of games, having their seed cemented and finishing behind Phoenix in the division, so we could have an advantage there,

but man, we shouldn't even be in this position of having to get on a hot streak just to get the 8th seed with the talent we have...

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03-04-2012, 12:20 AM
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TonySCV
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This is what it looks like when everything goes your way: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...osAngeles.html

Kings went from a 33% chance to make the playoffs to a coin flip in one night.

I'll update post one tomorrow. Kings still on the outside looking in though. Need to keep the foot on the gas.

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03-04-2012, 01:37 AM
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03-04-2012, 02:06 AM
  #20
Jason Lewis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post

chance to make the playoffs a coin flip
That sounds about right. Heh.

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03-04-2012, 03:34 AM
  #21
Ron
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The remaining schedule is pretty daunting, with two games against Detroit and Nashville, and one each against Boston, St. Louis, and Vancouver. What we got going for us here is that the Kings, for some reason, have played their best hockey against so-called "elite" teams (and winning as well).

The fact that they play San Jose three more times is also interesting...but San Jose is playing terrible of late; not sure what team will show up against the Kings.

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Old
03-04-2012, 10:44 AM
  #22
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Call me greedy gentlemen and ladies but this may well be the last year the Pacific division title is awarded. They are 3 points out of the lead, I say **** just making the playoffs lets go for the #3 birth.

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03-04-2012, 12:01 PM
  #23
TonySCV
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Updated projected final standings assuming teams continue to earn points at their current rate this season:

Before last night:

VAN (NW) 114
DET (C) 112
PHX (P) 96
STL (C) 110
NAS (C) 104
CHI (C) 96
SJS (P) 95
DAL (P) 92
---------------------------------------------------
LAK (P) 90
COL (NW) 88


After last night:

DET (C) 112
VAN (NW) 112
PHX (P) 95
STL (C) 111
NAS (C) 105
CHI (C) 96
SJS (P) 94
DAL (P) 92
---------------------------------------------------
LAK (P) 91
CGY (NW) 87

Kings moved to 29th in scoring. Notable because no team has ever made the playoffs at #30.

As I noted in the OP, the Kings can only afford 5 or fewer regulation losses in (now) the next 17 games to make the playoffs. 9-5-3, 10-5-2, some combination of 5 losses in regulation or less should safely land the Kings in the playoffs. This takes in to account tiebreakers, which the Kings will likely lose.

Playoff odds increased from a 33% chance to essentially a coin flip (47%) last night due to getting so much help from other teams. They (still) have gone 4 months without a 3 game win streak. If they win in Nashville, that will be 3 wins in a row for the first time since October.

They've won 3 out of 4. Realistically, there is only one team the Kings can hope to leapfrog, and that's still Dallas.

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03-04-2012, 12:26 PM
  #24
Maynard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
They've won 3 out of 4. Realistically, there is only one team the Kings can hope to leapfrog, and that's still Dallas.
What about San Jose? They have the same number of points as Dallas and there are three games left against them

EDIT - I see what you're saying, you're talking strictly point projections at the current pace.

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03-04-2012, 12:49 PM
  #25
TonySCV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maynard View Post
What about San Jose? They have the same number of points as Dallas and there are three games left against them

EDIT - I see what you're saying, you're talking strictly point projections at the current pace.
Correct... and realistically, there is very little overall movement post all-star break because top 8 teams play each other so often. Teams in the top 8 tend to stay there. Overtaking even one team is extremely difficult.

Just look at the Ducks. When Boudreau took over on Dec. 2, 2011. The team was 10 points out of a playoff spot.

Even after the ridiculous run they went on, they only made up 4 points of that 10 point playoff deficit. They were 6 points out of the No. 8 seed. How many points are they out today? 7. Even if they had won last night. 5 points out. They haven't really moved at all.

Just too many teams to leapfrog. Goal differential is another key stat. Kings are +, Dallas is - (and the only - GD team in the playoffs at present). San Jose should start winning games again soon. Phoenix will stay in. Dallas and LA should swap spots, so say the stats anyway

Almost every team in the top 12 or so has gone on a ridiculously hot run at some point this season except the Kings. If the Kings are going to do it, now would be a really good time.

We'll see.

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