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The Official 2012 Draft Thread: Part VI | Countdown To Draft Lottery: 2 Days

View Poll Results: Murray or Grigorenko
Murray 61 30.50%
Grigorenko 90 45.00%
I'm happy with either 44 22.00%
Other 5 2.50%
Voters: 200. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
03-31-2012, 09:51 PM
  #76
nexttothemoon
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Final games to watch down the stretch:

Tampa Bay at Montreal (probably TB win)

Montreal at Carolina (probably Canes win)

Toronto at Montreal (battle of the suck... probably goes to OT to extend the agony of each team's fanbase... probably 1 point to Montreal in an OT/SO loss)

That would give Montreal 74 points.


Minny at Chicago (should be a Hawks win)
Minny at Nashville (should be a Preds victory)
Chicago at Minny (another likely Hawks win)
Phoenix at Minny (Phoenix is in a very tight playoff chase so I would give this one to the Desert Dogs as well.)

Not hard to picture zero points in the last 4 games for the Wild... but they'll probably pick up at least 1 point somewhere in there.

Wild will likely end up with ~77 points (2 points for them vs LA tonight)



Edmonton at Anaheim (probably a Ducks win looking at current Oilers D)

Edmonton at LA (Likely a Kings win on their home ice since they are in a heated playoff battle)

Anaheim at Edmonton (Oilers could pull out at win in this one... final game on home ice... I'd hope they'd want to put in a good showing for the fans.)

Edmonton at Vancouver (Should be an easy win for Vancouver but you can bet the Nucks will be playing at half speed and will be resting several key players... game could go either way and Oilers may get a point from this game.)

Oilers will likely end up with 73 or 74 pts... 73 would likely give them 29th and the #2 pick and 74 pts probably puts them in 28th with the #3 pick (subject to who ins the lottery).

With the new spate of injuries decimating the Oilers D... I can't see them chalking up many points over their final 4 games. Once again the most exciting day of the year will be Lotto day.

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03-31-2012, 09:53 PM
  #77
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Minne wins in SO!!

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Old
03-31-2012, 09:54 PM
  #78
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Minny beats LA 4-3 in a shootout.

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03-31-2012, 09:57 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
Minny beats LA 4-3 in a shootout.

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03-31-2012, 09:59 PM
  #80
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I can see only one more win for the Oilers this season so the worst they will draft is the #3 position. They have a great chance at #2 as the Habs got a point tonight.

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03-31-2012, 10:00 PM
  #81
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The Oilers ain't catching Minny.With 4 games left it comes down to only Montreal.


Edmonton final 4
Anaheim
LA
Anaheim
Vancouver


Montreal final 3
Lightning
Hurricanes
Leafs

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03-31-2012, 10:01 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
The Oilers ain't catching Minny.With 4 games left it comes down to only Montreal.


Edmonton final 4
Anaheim
LA
Anaheim
Vancouver


Montreal final 3
Lightning
Hurricanes
Leafs
Montreal will likely beat the Leafs in the final game.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:02 PM
  #83
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**** you la!

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:04 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
The Oilers ain't catching Minny.With 4 games left it comes down to only Montreal.


Edmonton final 4
Anaheim
LA
Anaheim
Vancouver


Montreal final 3
Lightning
Hurricanes
Leafs
I wouldn't write off the Wild just yet.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:05 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asher View Post
I wouldn't write off the Wild just yet.
Your overrating Edmonton too much.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:08 PM
  #86
nexttothemoon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asher View Post
I wouldn't write off the Wild just yet.
Oilers would need 5 points in their last 4 games even if Minny gets zero points the rest of the way.

I don't question the Wild's ability to suck the rest of the way... but The Oilers have pulled out the Barker card... they are very serious about finishing 29th.

Schultz - Whitney
Sutton - Potter
Barker - Teubert

If that doesn't scare Montreal and Minny into giving up hope for 29th... nothing will.

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03-31-2012, 10:13 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
The Oilers ain't catching Minny.With 4 games left it comes down to only Montreal.


Edmonton final 4
Anaheim
LA
Anaheim
Vancouver


Montreal final 3
Lightning
Hurricanes
Leafs
For comparison, Minny's remaining games:
@ Chicago
@ Nashville
vs. Chicago
vs. Coyotes


Honestly I think both us and Montreal have 2 wins at best remaining on our schedule.

In comparison, I'm I think Minny will split the games left against Chicago.

I dunno, I wouldn't rule out overtaking both Minny and Montreal.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:16 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
Your overrating Edmonton too much.
When I looked at the standings they had yet to be updated with Minny's win tonight. You're probably right about MTL being the only serious threat now.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:21 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilbleeder View Post
For comparison, Minny's remaining games:
@ Chicago
@ Nashville
vs. Chicago
vs. Coyotes


Honestly I think both us and Montreal have 2 wins at best remaining on our schedule.

In comparison, I'm I think Minny will split the games left against Chicago.

I dunno, I wouldn't rule out overtaking both Minny and Montreal.

Minny will likely win at least 1 out of the 4 that they have.If Edmonton was to catch Minny,we would have to win 3 out of our last 4 games.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:26 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
The Oilers ain't catching Minny.With 4 games left it comes down to only Montreal.


Edmonton final 4
Anaheim
LA
Anaheim
Vancouver


Montreal final 3
Lightning
Hurricanes
Leafs
If Smid and Petry don't come back, we're more then likely to lose both games on the road trip. I see us winning only 1 more game unfortunately.

Montreal IMO, can beat the Bolts and Leafs.

I still think we'll get leaped via the lottery and draft 3rd OV though. Destined to draft Murray!

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03-31-2012, 10:28 PM
  #91
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Looks like it's basically a two horse "race" (lol) for the no.2 position in the draft between us and the Habs now.

Although since everyone is telling us we have to draft for "need" this year, Montreal may end up getting their precious Grigorenko either way. I'm sure they'd love that because it would lead right into Patrick Roy being hired as head coach.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:30 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soli View Post
If Smid and Petry don't come back, we're more then likely to lose both games on the road trip. I see us winning only 1 more game unfortunately.

Montreal IMO, can beat the Bolts and Leafs.

I still think we'll get leaped via the lottery and draft 3rd OV though. Destined to draft Murray!
Even if they pick second I can't imagine the Oilers picking Grigorenko.

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03-31-2012, 10:31 PM
  #93
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The top 10 will be interesting, how teams see prospects. Some teams might see a fwd prospect ahead of a defenseman because they place more value on fwds.
Top fwds in this draft are:
Yak - Will go number 1 no matter what
Grigs -I think he is a legit number
Galchenyuk - Did he show enough in the playoffs; will he play for the under 18 team or is he too old. I would see him as number 3 in my view, he offers so much.
Forsberg - A lot of people see him as a top 5 pick; I think it will depend on what teams value more.
Faksa - He has been rising all year and a lot of people see him in the top 10.
Gaunce - Another fwd that some people have in the top 10
That is 6 fwds that can make the top 10.

For defense:
Murray - Nothing but positive things all year long.
Dumba - High risk high reward can he translate the game to the NHL level.
Trouba - Big dman from the USHL
Rielly - Been nothing but rising
Reinhart - NHL ready
Ceci - Big dman that can move the puck.

That is 12 players that after Yak goes 1st you just never know who will go next.
How do you think they will go in the draft if the top 10 teams are:
CBJ; EDM; MON; MIN; TO; NYI; ANA; CAR; TB; WIN

This is how I would see it:
CBJ - They just can't let this top end talent go no matter how bad experience they have had with Russians.
EDM- Grigs/Gal; We need size in our top 6 and definately a big body behind RNH.
MON- Grigs/Gal; whom ever EDM doesn't take they will take the other as they need size.
MIN - Murray; they need help every where except in goal; having a top dman will help.
TO- I know a lot of people think dmen here but I see Faksa; Burkie wants a centreman with size and they have more young dmen and need that big centreman.
NYI - Trouba; just too big to pass on plus their last few picks were fwds.
ANA - Gaunce; they been wanting a 2nd line centreman for a few years now with Koivu getting over the hill. Gaunce is their man.
CAR - Forsberg; adding a big winger to this team is just what they need.
TB - Dumba; They are hurting for dmen and Dumba is a high risk high reward.
WIN- Ceci/Reinhart; I think they would really rather have a fwd but just can't let one of these men pass up.

I just feel that with players being so close that teams can also go for need.

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03-31-2012, 10:31 PM
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soli View Post
If Smid and Petry don't come back, we're more then likely to lose both games on the road trip. I see us winning only 1 more game unfortunately.

Montreal IMO, can beat the Bolts and Leafs.

I still think we'll get leaped via the lottery and draft 3rd OV though. Destined to draft Murray!
I think we'll win.

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Old
03-31-2012, 10:32 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
The Oilers ain't catching Minny.With 4 games left it comes down to only Montreal.


Edmonton final 4
Anaheim
LA
Anaheim
Vancouver


Montreal final 3
Lightning
Hurricanes
Leafs
I agree. With Wild winning tonight, I do not think The Oilers will catch them. Like you, I think Montreal and us are going for the 29th spot. Then again, if some other team in the top 6 or 7 (depending if we are 2 or 3 spot) wins the lottery, we would be bumped down anyway...Really, I will be happy just to in the top 5.

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03-31-2012, 10:33 PM
  #96
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Even if they pick second I can't imagine the Oilers picking Grigorenko.
I know what you mean. I was a pretty big fan of Grigorenko, but I have a hockey boner for Murray. I am leaning towards that big Top-6 center being our biggest need, but I don't see Grigorenko or Galchenyuk playing the gritty game I envision that center playing.

I hope we draft Ryan Murray and next offseason sign Ryan Getzlaf. Bring another Regina boy on board.

Hall - Getzlaf - Hemsky
Paajarvi - RNH - Eberle

PP#1: Eberle - Getzlaf - Hall; RNH - Petry/J. Schultz.

*Drool*

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03-31-2012, 10:40 PM
  #97
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Lottery Odds for the bottom 5 teams:


Finish 30th: Pick #1 48.2% Pick #2 51.8%
Finish 29th: Pick #1 18.8% Pick #2 42.0% Pick#3 39.2%
Finish 28th: Pick #1 14.2% Pick #3 56.1% Pick#4 29.7%
Finish 27th: Pick #1 10.7% Pick #4 66.7% Pick#5 22.6%
Finish 26th: Pick #1 8.1% Pick #5 74.7% Pick#6 17.2%


Last edited by nexttothemoon: 04-01-2012 at 07:54 AM.
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Old
03-31-2012, 10:41 PM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soli View Post
I know what you mean. I was a pretty big fan of Grigorenko, but I have a hockey boner for Murray. I am leaning towards that big Top-6 center being our biggest need, but I don't see Grigorenko or Galchenyuk playing the gritty game I envision that center playing.

I hope we draft Ryan Murray and next offseason sign Ryan Getzlaf. Bring another Regina boy on board.

Hall - Getzlaf - Hemsky
Paajarvi - RNH - Eberle

PP#1: Eberle - Getzlaf - Hall; RNH - Petry/J. Schultz.

*Drool*
If there's any questions at all about Grigor's work ethic I think the Oilers pass him by. It looks like they've made a conscious decision to stay away from those types of players. I think Murray is the safest choice, which makes him a Tambo kind of guy. I'm actually quite intrigued by Dumba and would be comfortable drafting him, but he's the supposed wilcard and once again I don't see Tambo as a gambler. If by some chance they do pass Murray over for Dumba it will be because of Lowe's influence IMO.

P.S. I never get my hopes up over highly prized free agents for obvious reasons. lol

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03-31-2012, 10:43 PM
  #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soli View Post
I know what you mean. I was a pretty big fan of Grigorenko, but I have a hockey boner for Murray. I am leaning towards that big Top-6 center being our biggest need, but I don't see Grigorenko or Galchenyuk playing the gritty game I envision that center playing.

I hope we draft Ryan Murray and next offseason sign Ryan Getzlaf. Bring another Regina boy on board.

Hall - Getzlaf - Hemsky
Paajarvi - RNH - Eberle

PP#1: Eberle - Getzlaf - Hall; RNH - Petry/J. Schultz.

*Drool*
His agent lives in Edmonton. He's actually my friends dad. Pretty cool, I've talked to him about maybe talking Getzlaf into coming here.

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03-31-2012, 10:44 PM
  #100
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Depending on how the season ends and on the lottery, the Oilers will likely be picking in the 1-4 range (They may catch Montreal, but not Minnesota or Toronto).



If they win the lottery, they gotta take Yakupov, who is clearly the BPA.

At No.2, you take Grogirenko.
At No.3, assuming Yakupov and Grigorenko are gone, you take the best D-man, which is Murray.

At 4, assuming all of Yakupov, Grigorenko and Murray are gone, you take the best available centre or d-man, which is probably one of Dumba/Trouba/Galchenyuk.

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