The best defenseman or best forward from this draft? As in they will have the best career of a forward or defenseman from anyone else in this draft year.
I would personally pick the d-man just because they would likely be a bonafide #1 defenseman.
While I would rather have the best defenseman from this draft, I think it is harder to predict the best defenseman, so I would only use a top 3 pick on a forward.
I think the poster is saying when it's all said and done, which would you want, not so much at the draft. Because, obviously Yakupov goes first, he projects to be the best player in the draft. But for example let's take the 1989 entry draft...
Sundin went 1st overall
Federov went 74th overall
Those were the 2 best forwards
Lidstrom went 53rd overall
He was the best dman.
Obviously, everyone would take Lidstrom over everyone else. He ended up being the being the best dman, and the best player (regardless of position).
What I believe the OP is asking is, not knowing the outcome yet, just knowing we could have either the best dman or the best forward, regardless of where they were picked (be it 1st or 222nd), and also not knowing which ended up better in the end, the dman or the forward, who would you want? the forward or the dman. If you said forward in 1989, you would get Federov, if you said dman, you would get Lidstrom, if you said Goalie, you would get Olaf Kolzig.
I would take the forward, even though we need the dman, I just believe there is better chance of hitting a home run with the forward, more so than the dman.
I think the poster is saying when it's all said and done, which would you want, not so much at the draft. Because, obviously Yakupov goes first, he projects to be the best player in the draft. But for example let's take the 1989 entry draft...
Sundin went 1st overall
Federov went 74th overall
Those were the 2 best forwards
Lidstrom went 53rd overall
He was the best dman.
Obviously, everyone would take Lidstrom over everyone else. He ended up being the being the best dman, and the best player (regardless of position). Would you take Letang if you can have Crosby? I know, I would not.
What I believe the OP is asking is, not knowing the outcome yet, just knowing we could have either the best dman or the best forward, regardless of where they were picked (be it 1st or 222nd), and also not knowing which ended up better in the end, the dman or the forward, who would you want? the forward or the dman. If you said forward in 1989, you would get Federov, if you said dman, you would get Lidstrom, if you said Goalie, you would get Olaf Kolzig.
I would take the forward, even though we need the dman, I just believe there is better chance of hitting a home run with the forward, more so than the dman.
If that's the case, the question is silly. Of course, everybody would say the best player.
If that's the case, the question is silly. Of course, everybody would say the best player.
But at this point you don't know if the Dman or the Forward ends up being the better player. So his question is, do you want to gamble on the forward or the dman, when it's all said and done, who ends up being the better player. The answer won't be known for at least 5 to 10 years, minimum. 5 years into their careers, most people would of took Federov or Lidstrom, 10 years, it was closer, 15 years, it was easily Lidstrom.
I honestly do not believe the Oilers can afford to wait 3, 4, 5 years for Murray/Trouba/whomever the decide to draft, to make a significant contribution to this team.
I would rather walk away with the best forward, because it is clear as day this team is still missing some major pieces upfront.
I think there are other ways of getting star d-men other than drafting them in the top 10 and I don't buy the hype that our D long term is that bad.
Smid Petry is a solid pairing already and Klefbom is there. If you can acquire a Justin Schultz, that's 4 solid pieces to build a top 4 around and then you still have Marincin, Gernat, Musil, Teubert, etc. in the pipeline.
And that's not even factoring in that another star forward could allow you to move a player like Gagner for another d-man like a Gormley or Ellis or Schenn.
I think there are other ways of getting star d-men other than drafting them in the top 10 and I don't buy the hype that our D long term is that bad.
Smid Petry is a solid pairing already and Klefbom is there. If you can acquire a Justin Schultz, that's 4 solid pieces to build a top 4 around and then you still have Marincin, Gernat, Musil, Teubert, etc. in the pipeline.
And that's not even factoring in that another star forward could allow you to move a player like Gagner for another d-man like a Gormley or Ellis or Schenn.
The thing is other than Yakupov who will go 1st, Murray probably is the BPA. If they are in position to draft him, they should. He will be in the NHL next year and will step into a top 4 within a couple of years. If Klefbom and Marincin pan out and they somehow sign J. Schultz, so much the better. The surplus of young d-men is a nice problem to have.
The thing is other than Yakupov who will go 1st, Murray probably is the BPA. If they are in position to draft him, they should. He will be in the NHL next year and will step into a top 4 within a couple of years. If Klefbom and Marincin pan out and they somehow sign J. Schultz, so much the better. The surplus of young d-men is a nice problem to have.
Maybe but 3-4 years from now we likely won't be able to say "ooops, one line of Hall/Eberle/RNH isn't enough elite talent to hang with Colorado/Pittsburgh/etc. now we need another high end forward because we keep getting knocked out of the 1st/2nd round of the playoffs" ... because good luck getting one then without benefit of a high pick.
If the Flames tank for MacKinnon next year and Baertschi turns out for them, they could very quickly be equivalent to us in talent upfront ... this idea that we're so loaded upfront honestly is just a myth. Gagner is nothing great. MPS is a fringe prospect. Hemsky is not a long term solution here. We're not as talented as the Pittsburghs/Washingtons/etc. or even close yet.
This is not a Murray vs Yakupov thread.. its best forward vs best Dman.
who knows if it turns out to be a Norris winning Trouba vs Art ross winning Galchenyuk.
I'll take the 90 point scorer over the best Dman of a draft class.
Maybe but 3-4 years from now we likely won't be able to say "ooops, one line of Hall/Eberle/RNH isn't enough elite talent to hang with Colorado/Pittsburgh/etc. now we need another high end forward because we keep getting knocked out of the 1st/2nd round of the playoffs" ... because good luck getting one then without benefit of a high pick.
If the Flames tank for MacKinnon next year and Baertschi turns out for them, they could very quickly be equivalent to us in talent upfront ... this idea that we're so loaded upfront honestly is just a myth. Gagner is nothing great. MPS is a fringe prospect. Hemsky is not a long term solution here. We're not as talented as the Pittsburghs/Washingtons/etc. or even close yet.
You can't draft everybody. at certain point they will have to sign or trade for a 2nd liner. It's doable. I also think you underestimate some of the prospects they already have: Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Pitlick, Rieder have potential. We'll see where they are at in 2 years.
It all depends. I wanted Larsson last yr. This yr I want either Yakupov or Grigorenko if available. We still need another 1 or 2 top 6 forwards. Gagner is not gonna work longterm in Edmonton. If the Oilers can get Justin signed then this rebuild is almost complete. Don't forget we'll still might get another top 10 pick in next yrs draft.
You can't draft everybody. at certain point they will have to sign or trade for a 2nd liner. It's doable. I also think you underestimate some of the prospects they already have: Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Pitlick, Rieder have potential. We'll see where they are at in 2 years.
Rieder intrigues me ... but the rest of them are not exactly elite talents.
My worry is that we're going to come of this rebuild having a "pretty good" core of forwards and D.
Now you might say "hey that doesn't sound so bad ...", but the thing is we may not be good enough in any one area to scare anyone.
We don't need just a "2nd line C" or a "a good d-man".
We actually need another *great* player. Another star player. That is what is going to elevate us as a whole to different stratosphere.
Then any competent GM should be able to fill in the supporting pieces.
When your second line center is an All-Star (like we used to be in the 80s, or the Penguins/Canucks/Red Wings/Black Hawks are today) ... that's when you know the teams on the other side of the ice are probably crapping their pants a little bit when you step into their barn.
Rieder intrigues me ... but the rest of them are not exactly elite talents.
My worry is that we're going to come of this rebuild having a "pretty good" core of forwards and D.
Now you might say "hey that doesn't sound so bad ...", but the thing is we may not be good enough in any one area to scare anyone.
We don't need just a "2nd line C" or a "a good d-man".
We actually need another *great* player. Another star player. That is what is going to elevate us as a whole to different stratosphere.
Then any competent GM should be able to fill in the supporting pieces.
When your second line center is an All-Star (like we used to be in the 80s, or the Penguins/Canucks/Red Wings/Black Hawks are today) ... that's when you know the teams on the other side of the ice are probably crapping their pants a little bit when you step into their barn.
RNH will be as good as they come in this league. 100 point potential in his prime. Eberle is top 10 in scoring as 21 year old. Hall is Hall. If they draft Yakupov/Grigorenko this year, there won't be too many teams that will be able to match that kind of forward depth. Defense will still require work, but if ONE of Klefbom/Marincin realizes his potential and they add a legit top 4 guy through free agency in the next year or two, this team will soon be a perennial contender, even if all other prospects become no more than depth players.
I'm always of the mind that you build from the Net out. A quality team starts and ends with the crew they can put on the back line. However, there are lots of ways to build a team, you don't necessarily HAVE to build your D through the draft. Just look at our cup run corps: Pronger-trade; Smith-trade; Staios-FA; Spacek-trade; Bergeron+Greene-draft.
High picks are better spent on forwards, especially with the resource management argument (forwards tend to develop a lot quicker, you can get more out of them before they hit UFA years).
Give me the top forward early, take some swings at D and bigger forwards in the middle rounds, and then try to hit home runs on goalies and boom/bust talents in the later rounds.
That all being said, I'm in the Ryan Murray camp because I absolutely love everything I hear about the kid. So, there's that.
2006: Toews vs. Erik Johnson (or Petry!)
2005: Crosby vs. Yandle (or Letang)
2004: Malkin vs. Green (Barker selected 3rd overall, buyer beware)
2003: Eric Staal (or Perry) vs. Weber
2002: Nash vs. Keith
2001: Kovalchuk vs. Tyutin (or Zidlicky, or Hamhuis)
2000: Gaborik (or Heatley) vs. Visnovsky
Interesting note that pretty much all the best defencemen were taken later than round 1. Pretty much all the best forwards were taken near the top of the draft.
This shouldn't really surprise anyone... most defensemen are signficantly further from being every day NHL players than most forwards coming into the draft. So the very nature of the position makes it more difficult to project how a player will turn out. Which should, logically, reduce the willingness of teams to gamble on a d-man with a high draft pick in all but a few exceptional cases. The reward just isn't typically there, especially when you have reasonably similar odds of hitting on a quality prospect in later rounds.
