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2012 NHL Entry Draft Talk 7.0

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:35 AM
  #926
Fozz
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The Grigorenko vs Galchenyuk baby-war we have on this thread is bordering on ridiculous. Are you guys seriously arguing about who speaks the better English? Who the hell cares?

I personally don't care who we draft in the first round. One of those 2 or another or even a d-man... Don't care. All I know is that we'll get a top talent and that he will be a big part of the team for years. Heck, I wouldn't be against trading down if they feel the best guy will still be available later. I trust the scouting team to make the right choice.

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04-06-2012, 11:39 AM
  #927
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fozz View Post
The Grigorenko vs Galchenyuk baby-war we have on this thread is bordering on ridiculous. Are you guys seriously arguing about who speaks the better English? Who the hell cares?

I personally don't care who we draft in the first round. One of those 2 or another or even a d-man... Don't care. All I know is that we'll get a top talent and that he will be a big part of the team for years. Heck, I wouldn't be against trading down if they feel the best guy will still be available later. I trust the scouting team to make the right choice.
If at our turn Forsberg and Gally are still available and Timmins believe both are equivalent he could make a trade with the team behind him, still at this stage i'm pretty sure there's a clear cut between each of the players in the mind of Timmins.

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04-06-2012, 11:39 AM
  #928
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fozz View Post
The Grigorenko vs Galchenyuk baby-war we have on this thread is bordering on ridiculous. Are you guys seriously arguing about who speaks the better English? Who the hell cares?

I personally don't care who we draft in the first round. One of those 2 or another or even a d-man... Don't care. All I know is that we'll get a top talent and that he will be a big part of the team for years. Heck, I wouldn't be against trading down if they feel the best guy will still be available later. I trust the scouting team to make the right choice.
The real argument should be who speaks the better french!

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:40 AM
  #929
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
The Oilers have lots of options.

They can't be sold on Gagner, so maybe they want Grigorenko as a 2nd line C.

Their defence is horrid, so they might want Murray to help stabilize the backend.

RNH is not a real physical C, so maybe they want a guy like Galchenyuk to be a 2nd line C since he is more hard nosed.

Perhaps they want Forsberg to get MPS out of whatever developmental funk he's in.

They really are a wild card.
Perhaps the should let the Habs cut in line if they haven't made up their mind

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:42 AM
  #930
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
The Oilers have lots of options.

They can't be sold on Gagner, so maybe they want Grigorenko as a 2nd line C.

Their defence is horrid, so they might want Murray to help stabilize the backend.

RNH is not a real physical C, so maybe they want a guy like Galchenyuk to be a 2nd line C since he is more hard nosed.

Perhaps they want Forsberg to get MPS out of whatever developmental funk he's in.

They really are a wild card.
Even though they clearly need a defenseman, I think they'll decide to take BPA.

So unfortunately, if we pick at 3, I think Yakupov and Grigorenko will be gone.

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:45 AM
  #931
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Originally Posted by Pierre Dagenais View Post
Only Ashton and Aulie were prospects at the time of the trades
Yeah and that trade shows that when you trade the Defence Prospect for the Forward Prospect, you end up with the worse player.

Carter "Ben Maxwell" Ashton

15 games 0 pts -10

Teams are seeing that legit top 6 forwards are a rarity and thats why we've seen Cowen, Gormley, Fowler, Hamilton, and Murphy slide in recent drafts, in favour of the Neiderreiters, Glennies, Kadris, Johannsen, Skinner, Connolly, Schiefele, Strome, Zibanejad type prospects.

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:50 AM
  #932
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Probablity of top 4 pick cracks nhl roster at 1st year eligible

A little FYI

data from last
10 years = 62.5 % of cracking roster 1st yr eligibility (2004 lockout- assuming Ovie and Malkin play, Barker and Ladd do not)
5 years = 75% of cracking roster 1st yr eligibility


Higher chance of if we don`t pick a russian

Based on the last 5 years, chances are very good we see our pick play in the NHL


2002
Rick Nash YES
Kari Lehtonen NO
Jay Bouwmeester YES
Joni Pitkanen NO

2

2003
Marc-Andre Fleury YES
ERIC STALL YES
NATHAN HORTON YES
NIKOLAI ZHERDEV YES

4

2004
ALEX OVECHKIN NO
EVGENI MALKIN NO
CAM BARKER NO
ANDREW LADD NO

0

2005

SIDNEY CROSBY YES
BOBBY RYAN NO
JACK JOHNSON NO
BENOIT POULIOT NO

1

2006

ERIK JOHNSON NO
JORDAN STAAL YES
JONATHAN TOEWS NO
NICKLAS BACKSTROM NO

1

2007
PATRICK KANE - YES
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK- NO
KYLE TURRIS - YES (3 GAMES)
THOMAS HICKEY - NO

2

2008
STEVEN STAMKOS - YES
DREW DOUGHTY - YES
ZACH BOGOSIAN - YES
ALEX PIETRANGELO - YES ( 8 GAMES)

4

2009
JOHN TAVARES - YES
VICTOR HEDMAN - YES
MATT DUCHENE - YES
EVANDER KANE - YES

4

2010
TAYLOR HALL - YES
TYLER SEGUIN - YES
ERIC GUDBRANSON - NO
RYAN JOHANSEN - NO

2

2011
RYAN NUGENT HOPKINS -YES
GABRIEL LANDESKOG -YES
JONATHAN HUERDEAU-NO
ADAM LARSSON -YES

3


Last edited by coolasprICE: 04-06-2012 at 12:03 PM.
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Old
04-06-2012, 11:51 AM
  #933
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre Dagenais View Post
Who are the prospects
Jack Johnson and Carter are accomplished players 2 years removed from being considered "prospects". It's rather intellectually dishonest to question the validity of the "drafting for BPA then trading them" concept, because we are naming trades involving names that are no longer "prospects" as per HFboards. Our point was always that you trade from a position of positional strength. By drafting someone like Murray you may end up concluding that Beaulieu is someone that you can dangle for big prizes. But this, most the time happens after a few years of development. (See Jack Johnson getting you a still young Carter.)

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:53 AM
  #934
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He seems like a really humble kid. Doesn't have the arrogance of Yakupov.

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:53 AM
  #935
Pierre Dagenais
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SOLR View Post
Jack Johnson and Carter are accomplished players 2 years removed from being considered "prospects". It's rather intellectually dishonest to question the validity of the "drafting for BPA then trading them" concept, because we are naming trades involving names that are no longer "prospects" as per HFboards. Our point was always that you trade from a position of positional strength. By drafting someone like Murray you may end up concluding that Beaulieu is someone that you can dangle for big prizes. But this, most the time happens after a few years of development. (See Jack Johnson getting you a still young Carter.)
I understand your point but Jeff Carter and Jack Johnson were not 2 years removed from being prospects.

Jeff Carter played his first full season in 05-06, 6 years ago
Jack Johnson played his first full season in 07-08, 4 years ago

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:54 AM
  #936
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
Yeah and that trade shows that when you trade the Defence Prospect for the Forward Prospect, you end up with the worse player.

Carter "Ben Maxwell" Ashton

15 games 0 pts -10

Teams are seeing that legit top 6 forwards are a rarity and thats why we've seen Cowen, Gormley, Fowler, Hamilton, and Murphy slide in recent drafts, in favour of the Neiderreiters, Glennies, Kadris, Johannsen, Skinner, Connolly, Schiefele, Strome, Zibanejad type prospects.
I agree. We need more talented forwards badly. Strong offense means less stress on the defense. Grigo/Gally/Forsberg all the way for me (in that order )

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:55 AM
  #937
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
Yeah and that trade shows that when you trade the Defence Prospect for the Forward Prospect, you end up with the worse player.

Carter "Ben Maxwell" Ashton

15 games 0 pts -10

Teams are seeing that legit top 6 forwards are a rarity and thats why we've seen Cowen, Gormley, Fowler, Hamilton, and Murphy slide in recent drafts, in favour of the Neiderreiters, Glennies, Kadris, Johannsen, Skinner, Connolly, Schiefele, Strome, Zibanejad type prospects.
You're using ONE example. With such a sample size you can prove anything.

I can easily say that Neal and his 40 goals for Goligoski trumps Ashton for Aulie trade.

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:57 AM
  #938
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Did you account 2004 picks in your data? It was the lockout year, Ovechkin and Malkin definitely would have played.

I would at least give a few games at the beginning of the season to our future russian superstar. He could be sent back to junior if he's clearly not ready.

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:57 AM
  #939
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre Dagenais View Post
I understand your point but Jeff Carter and Jack Johnson were not 2 years removed from being prospects.

Jeff Carter played his first full season in 05-06, 6 years ago
Jack Johnson played his first full season in 07-08, 4 years ago
Emelin, PK, Gorges are not prospects either but each of them can be valuable trading pieces with prospects taking their place ithe line up.

Or we can trade a prospect if that's what it would take. Having a mix of young talent and prospects is NEVER a bad thing.

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Old
04-06-2012, 11:59 AM
  #940
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Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
Did you account 2004 picks in your data? It was the lockout year, Ovechkin and Malkin definitely would have played.
oopsie

will adjust that now...


Ovie and Malk for sure would have played...

Barker and Ladd ???

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Old
04-06-2012, 12:01 PM
  #941
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Originally Posted by Habsfan18 View Post
Even though they clearly need a defenseman, I think they'll decide to take BPA.

So unfortunately, if we pick at 3, I think Yakupov and Grigorenko will be gone.
Ryan Murray and Matt Dumba are hardly big dropoffs after Grigs. Edmonton has 4 great young top sixers on their big league roster that are 22 or younger, and 2 of them are centers in RNH and Gagner. I don't see how Edmonton take another forward, maybe they look to trade down, but they are definitely looking to add an elite young defenseman...

Maybe if the forward was a power winger, but the last thing they need is another pure skill center like Grigs.

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Old
04-06-2012, 12:01 PM
  #942
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Originally Posted by shutehinside View Post
You're using ONE example. With such a sample size you can prove anything.

I can easily say that Neal and his 40 goals for Goligoski trumps Ashton for Aulie trade.
not prospects... try again.

When it comes to unproven players the forwards have more value, hence why guys like Strome, Schiefele and Zibanjed (lesser prospects) all got taken ahead of the better player in Hamilton.

Same with the Gormley/Fowler slipping and Jared Cowen.

The big issue the Habs will face is that with all the D going to Hamilton 4 or 5 rookies next year 3 in 2013, plus a few more after that, we are gonna run out of icetime to develop all these guys if we keep drafting d

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04-06-2012, 12:03 PM
  #943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre Dagenais View Post
I understand your point but Jeff Carter and Jack Johnson were not 2 years removed from being prospects.

Jeff Carter played his first full season in 05-06, 6 years ago
Jack Johnson played his first full season in 07-08, 4 years ago
Your arguing for the sake of arguing, you know what I meant. Change it to trading young players for another players if you like, it doesn't change the intent @ draft day and the reality that it is done quite a bit when teams get "defensive surpluses". There's nothing wrong with having Murray-Beaulieu-Tinordi-Subban-Emelin fight for spots and to trade for value upfront down the line if one or two others like Ellis, etc make it.

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04-06-2012, 12:07 PM
  #944
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
not prospects... try again.

When it comes to unproven players the forwards have more value, hence why guys like Strome, Schiefele and Zibanjed (lesser prospects) all got taken ahead of the better player in Hamilton.

Same with the Gormley/Fowler slipping and Jared Cowen.

The big issue the Habs will face is that with all the D going to Hamilton 4 or 5 rookies next year 3 in 2013, plus a few more after that, we are gonna run out of icetime to develop all these guys if we keep drafting d
Or the contrary, the Ds have more value and teams are hanging on to them? (This isn't rhetorical in anyway)

What about Mcdonagh for Gomez?

If Mcdonagh was widely available we would have gotten many offers of offensive prospects for him, many.

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04-06-2012, 12:09 PM
  #945
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Originally Posted by SOLR View Post
Or the contrary, the Ds have more value and teams are hanging on to them? (This isn't rhetorical in anyway)

What about Mcdonagh for Gomez?

If Mcdonagh was widely available we would have gotten many offers of offensive prospects for him, many.
McDonagh for Gomez proves my point even further... we gave up the defence prospect and ended up with a worse player at forward.

Forward value and prices are being inflated by the rarity of them, this is especially true of centres.

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Old
04-06-2012, 12:10 PM
  #946
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Originally Posted by SergeConstantin74 View Post
If it was the other way around (Galchenyuk speaking better english than Grigorenko)' Grig's haters would use it as an argument to say Galchenyuk is better, works harder and a real American.
More importantly, as a polyglot, Galchenyuk is more likely to learn French.

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04-06-2012, 12:18 PM
  #947
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
not prospects... try again.

When it comes to unproven players the forwards have more value, hence why guys like Strome, Schiefele and Zibanjed (lesser prospects) all got taken ahead of the better player in Hamilton.

Same with the Gormley/Fowler slipping and Jared Cowen.

The big issue the Habs will face is that with all the D going to Hamilton 4 or 5 rookies next year 3 in 2013, plus a few more after that, we are gonna run out of icetime to develop all these guys if we keep drafting d
Well you can't expect the same production from a prospect as you can from young forward. You're trying to compare apples to oranges.

The point is trades for a defensman for a forward happen often whether they be prospects or young players or older vets is irrelevant.

You're nit picking on semantics to try to prove some irrelevant point but your missing the point.

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Old
04-06-2012, 12:19 PM
  #948
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Overall I think defenseman lose their value when it comes draft time. I understand that they might be the BPA but if you look at the recent drafts, guys like Fowler in Beaulieu were deemed as top 10 materials no question asked and they both where overlooked by many team who would have rather a shot at a possible 2nd line player than a top 4 d.

I understand that Edmonton badly need a defenseman, but they take time to develop and usually a couple of years away from making it in the NHL. They might want to take a shot a Suter or other UFAs and draft Grigs or another foward.

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04-06-2012, 12:19 PM
  #949
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
McDonagh for Gomez proves my point even further... we gave up the defence prospect and ended up with a worse player at forward.

Forward value and prices are being inflated by the rarity of them, this is especially true of centres.
But it's a false argument. Gainey-Gauther really failed on this one like they failed most times they traded prospects or young players. Ribeiro, Kostitsyn etc. For Mcdonagh to "prove your point" we would have to know what others options were out there. You can't make a trend out of poor GMs moves...

And there's another angle to this, we are talking about top 5 Ds pick right?

Bogosian, Doughty, Hedman probably could have fetch the same quality forward(top 5), but once you take a top 5, you usually don't trade them for another because you like it. Is Murray of that quality? I would agree with you he is not, in a strong year, hes a bubble top 10 pick.

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04-06-2012, 12:24 PM
  #950
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Originally Posted by Commandant View Post
not prospects... try again.

When it comes to unproven players the forwards have more value, hence why guys like Strome, Schiefele and Zibanjed (lesser prospects) all got taken ahead of the better player in Hamilton.

Same with the Gormley/Fowler slipping and Jared Cowen.

The big issue the Habs will face is that with all the D going to Hamilton 4 or 5 rookies next year 3 in 2013, plus a few more after that, we are gonna run out of icetime to develop all these guys if we keep drafting d
Seeing as all these defensman were drafted in different years and will develop at different times I don't tend to worry about playing time and stunted development. In fact, I see it as a positive that they'll be playing a lot together and getting to know each other that much more. Besides, I've never, ever heard a team complain that they have too much defensive depth. All you hear is that defensman are at a premium as good ones are hard to come by. If you're stacked with prospects and young payers defensive prospects then again, trading one for a forward is that much easier.

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