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Significant dropoff at # 10 pick, in 2012 draft

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04-01-2012, 09:17 AM
  #1
CREW99AW
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Significant dropoff at # 10 pick, in 2012 draft

I won't be surprised, if the teams in the top 10 are trading among themselves.Moving up or down the draft board a few spots.I will be surpised if any of those top 10 teams, totally trade out of the top 10.


http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story...rst-mock-draft
Originally Published: February 16, 2012
By Grant Sonier | Special to ESPN Insider
After the third pick we'll see the first drop-off. If you recall our Top 50 prospects list, our Top 3 (Yakupov, Grigorenko and Forsberg) are the only prospects I graded in the "A" range. That's the cutoff for what I consider the elite prospects this season. We see the next drop at the No. 10 pick, and that drop appears to be a significant one, but that does not mean teams picking later in the draft will not get a quality prospect.

Another positive about this draft is there appears to be a clog of defensemen and centers, excellent building blocks for teams that may be facing long-term development and rebuilding plans.

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04-01-2012, 09:22 AM
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dannyboy8920
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I dont really agree.

Between 10-15, if you are able to grab on fwd: Gaunce, Faksa or Girgensons. or a falling Dman.

Its an interesting year. I think at least one of Faksa or Gaunce will be in the top 10. Which we will likely see a good dman drop in the 10 range.

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04-01-2012, 09:38 AM
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NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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For all bashing ESPN, you do realize the Grant Sonier was a former NHL scout and Director of Hockey Operations for the Panthers, right?

It's not like they got some intern to write the article.

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04-01-2012, 09:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyboy8920 View Post
I dont really agree.

Between 10-15, if you are able to grab on fwd: Gaunce, Faksa or Girgensons. or a falling Dman.

Its an interesting year. I think at least one of Faksa or Gaunce will be in the top 10. Which we will likely see a good dman drop in the 10 range.
I don't recall seeing Faksa or Gaunce projected to go top 10 ,but I have been focusing on the top 4-5 defensemen.

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04-01-2012, 10:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
I don't recall seeing Faksa or Gaunce projected to go top 10 ,but I have been focusing on the top 4-5 defensemen.
I think both (Gaunce and Faksa) are the type of players certain teams may covet.

If the leafs miss out on the big name Center, it wouldn't be out of the question to see them take Gaunce.

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04-01-2012, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
For all bashing ESPN, you do realize the Grant Sonier was a former NHL scout and Director of Hockey Operations for the Panthers, right?

It's not like they got some intern to write the article.
Yeah, becasue they did such a wonderful job in both areas the past 15+ years since the Cup run.

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04-01-2012, 10:14 AM
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this is a deep draft for d-men

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04-01-2012, 10:29 AM
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They are certainly not the 1st media group to report a drop off. Some say 10. Some say 12-15, but it sure sounds like there is a significant drop off.

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04-01-2012, 10:41 AM
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What does ESPN know..?

There's quite a few prospects who could drop out of the top-10 who are still good and there are some risers who won't go top 10.

Grig, Yak, Galchenyuk, Murray, Dumba, Forsberg, Faksa, Gaunce, Reinhart, Reilly Troube, Ceci, Greigensons, Maata...

That's 13 guys off the top of my head who could all god top 10, easily.

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04-01-2012, 10:51 AM
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Yakupov, Murray, Grigorekno, Galchenyuk, Forsberg

drop off 1

Dumba, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faska, Gaunce

drop off 2

IMO.

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04-01-2012, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smoke meat pete View Post
They are certainly not the 1st media group to report a drop off. Some say 10. Some say 12-15, but it sure sounds like there is a significant drop off.
Around 15th sounds more reasonable to me. There are certainly 15 players I would be very happy to see my team draft.

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04-01-2012, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisx101 View Post
Yakupov, Murray, Grigorekno, Galchenyuk, Forsberg

drop off 1

Dumba, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faska, Gaunce

drop off 2

IMO.
That is about right.

So the 10-11th drop off might be right.
However, looking at the top 11- All seem to be very decent picks.

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04-01-2012, 11:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrForever View Post
What does ESPN know..?

There's quite a few prospects who could drop out of the top-10 who are still good and there are some risers who won't go top 10.

Grig, Yak, Galchenyuk, Murray, Dumba, Forsberg, Faksa, Gaunce, Reinhart, Reilly Troube, Ceci, Greigensons, Maata...

That's 13 guys off the top of my head who could all god top 10, easily.
What scouting service or draft guru (Mckeens,Bob McKenzie,Red Line,etc),has had
Ceci, Greigensons or Maata in their top 10?

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04-01-2012, 11:16 AM
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I don't expect all teams you'd expect to take a dman as a dman in the top 10 so I'm guessing we'll have another Fowler like situation where a team will get a steal or Murphy to a lesser extent.

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04-01-2012, 11:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
What scouting service or draft guru (Mckeens,Bob McKenzie,Red Line,etc),has had
Ceci, Greigensons or Maata in their top 10?
What?

When did I even say that I was referring to a list?

These are guys who teams in the top 10 of the draft, could definitely select with their pick.

Not all of our opinions have to be 100% based on these self proclaimed experts

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04-01-2012, 11:26 AM
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i think guance will be this years scheifele and be picked around 7-10 range, i prefer faksa but with his recent injury i see him falling into the mid 1st, unless a team was really sold on him before the injury and arent scared off


there are too many similar skilled dman i think 1 or 2 will drop due to a team needing fwd in top 10
murray and dumba are locks
rielly, trouba, rienhart are wildcards imo
i think out of the 3 trouba should be the one on the outside looking in, who knows... a team may be high on a guy like ceci


Last edited by Im Old Gregggg: 04-01-2012 at 11:31 AM.
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04-01-2012, 11:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisx101 View Post
Yakupov, Murray, Grigorekno, Galchenyuk, Forsberg

drop off 1

Dumba, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faska, Gaunce

drop off 2

IMO.
The Finnish kid could be a wild card. I'm not a draft junkie, but I've heard a few people talk about him being a possible early pick. But I won't even try to spell his name.

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04-01-2012, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrForever View Post
What?

When did I even say that I was referring to a list?

These are guys who teams in the top 10 of the draft, could definitely select with their pick.

Not all of our opinions have to be 100% based on these self proclaimed experts
Aren't the former scouts and GMs being employed to write articles more acclaimed than self-proclaimed hfexperts? If self-proclamation provided success then every poster would be employed. I mean if there's one thing this site gets right, it's draft projections months prior to the actual draft date, right?

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04-01-2012, 11:33 AM
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CREW99AW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrForever View Post
What?

When did I even say that I was referring to a list?

These are guys who teams in the top 10 of the draft, could definitely select with their pick.

Not all of our opinions have to be 100% based on these self proclaimed experts
No,our opinions don't have to be 100% based on these self proclaimed experts.

I'm gonna guess though,that gms opinions will be very heavily influenced by these
self proclaimed experts.
A gm with a top 10 pick and his scouts saying,there is a significant drop off outside the projected top 10,will be less likely to want to drop out of that top 10.

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04-01-2012, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
I don't recall seeing Faksa or Gaunce projected to go top 10 ,but I have been focusing on the top 4-5 defensemen.
Really IIRC Faksa was ranked 4th in the midterm rankings by I think NHL central scouting.

Also every one is forgetting about Ceci. I've watch him play numerous times and he's easily a 5-10 pick and a kid almost certain to fulfill his role as an nhler.

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04-01-2012, 11:37 AM
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I wouldnt be suprised if this ends up similar to the 08 draft....

1 clear cut #1 forward, the next few picks (top 5 and 10) are dominated by dmen
there was a clear consensus about the top 4 dmen (doughty, bogo, pietrangelo, schenn) and then several talented dman wild cards


a few years later turns out most of the other dmen taking later are on about the same level as the highest touted ones (myers, karlsson, del zotto, gardiner, carlson etc)


there isnt much seperating the troubas, riellys, reinharts, cecis from the top 2, infact i could see a guy like rielly becomming the best out of the bunch looking back in a few years

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04-01-2012, 11:37 AM
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Marc the Habs Fan
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Do you guys do realize this article is from 6 weeks ago? Things have changed a bit since then. Galchenyuk returned. Rielly is close to a return.

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04-01-2012, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Do you guys do realize this article is from 6 weeks ago? Things have changed a bit since then. Galchenyuk returned. Rielly is close to a return.
Yes,I realize it's from around Feb. 16th.

Other then Galchenyuk returning,what has changed?

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04-01-2012, 11:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
Yes,I realize it's from around Feb. 16th.

Other then Galchenyuk returning,what has changed?
ya really.......


and other than a few nut jobs that think galchenyuk would fall to the mid 1st cuz of his injury, most felt he was a top 5 to begin with

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Old
04-01-2012, 11:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisx101 View Post
Yakupov, Murray, Grigorekno, Galchenyuk, Forsberg

drop off 1

Dumba, Trouba, Reilly, Reinhart, Faska, Gaunce

drop off 2

IMO.
Does not belong in that 1st group. He has not talken that next step and all of those 4 forwards in that 1st group are dynamic offensively or have that potential. Murray belongs in group 2. He and Dumba are the leaders of that group.

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