This summer one of the most important questions for GM Chevy will be what to do with Tobias Enstrom. Will the Jets try and trade him? Will they sign him to an extension? Do they try and move him at the trade deadline? There are many possible routes for the organization to go, lets examine some of the more likely options but first lets look at Tobias Enstrom as a player and try to project what the Jets can expect from him in the future.
Toby up until the last 2 years has been very dependable giving the team 22+ minutes a night for all 82 games 3/5 seasons, he can also rack up the points. In total he's contributed 202 points in 379 NHL games good for a .53 PPG over his career. The powerplay is not as important to Tobys point production as it is to some Dmen, accounting from anywhere from 68%-35% of his total offense, he will of course benefit from a better team PP but its not the be all end all of his offensive game.
These stats look really really good, early in his career Toby was used in a shut down role, he didn't do very well. That being said he was playing with a pretty terrible partner, and against top completion as a rookie. He put against worse and worse competition and as expected his Corsi rose and his GA/60 dropped. The last 2 years are where it starts to get good, he has seen an overall increase of .590 in the quality of his competition and his Corsi has seen an increase of 10.18 over that same time! Just this past year his competition increased .155 from just below average to well above average and his Corsi still jumped 9.63. His GA/60 also dropped 0.23 despite his SV% dropping by 4 points. We should also point out at this point that his SH% and SV% have been dropping for 4 straight years, and at this point are well below average. Theoretically an increase in SV% and SH% should happen increasing his point totals and decreasing goals against. These are not 2nd pairing or offensive specialist numbers these are true top pairing numbers that rival the best in the game, and they are improving. The final step is to ramp the QoC back up to a top pairing level and see if he can sustain the improved play. I don't expect to see a Corsi above 10 again but if he can put up a number above 4.00 while playing QoC above 1.000 that's a true top pairing Dman, one every other team would want.
From a scouting perspective Toby moves the puck very well in the defensive zone, he is never out of position, nor does he ever let the forechecking pressure get to him. He does struggle with larger more physical forwards but this could be mitigated by playing with a more physical partner(Buff is not that physical). In the offensive zone he is a wiz he moves the puck well and if he was out on the PP with a real shooter his point total would be much higher.
In conclusion I would expect Toby to continue getting better, even if you doubled the strength of his competition as long as you pair him with a solid partner he should have no problem continuing to generate positive Corsi numbers. We also have evidence from his first 2 years that even when he is playing tough competition he is still capable of generating 30-40 points. We have to remember that he is still developing as an NHL player, even though he started at a much older age this is still only his 5th season, Bogo's on season 4 and we expect much more growth from him.
The Jets Options
1) Trade Toby this summer:
There are many arguments to be made for trading Enstrom, he is by far the best trade chip the Jets posses. His value is such that he should return a young center or rightwinger the Jets desperately need. If Chevy can not come to terms on a contract extension, or at least get the framework of one in place this is the route that needs to be fallowed, the Jets are not competing for a cup next year and they can not afford to lose a top pairing defensemen for nothing. His value will also be highest at this point, bottom pairing guys can create bidding wars down the stretch, players that will command the return of Enstrom are far more valuable in the summer.
2) Trade Toby MidSeason
This is the worst option and can not be allowed to happen. As stated above his value will be way less, and any extra wins you get from having him will be wasted the next year when you are in a much worse position.
3) Sign Toby to a contract extension
Going into his age 28 season hes got lots of gas left in the tank, he doesn't play physical so I don't see him breaking down anytime soon. A 5 year extension will cover seasons age 29-33 most of his "prime". How much would such a contract cost? Brent Burns signed a 5 year 28 million dollar deal this summer a year younger than Toby, and like Enstrom he had 1 year remaining at 3.55M when he signed the extension. James Wisniewski also a year younger signed a 6 year 33 million dollar deal on the open market. An extension in the 29/5 or 34/6 would be comparable to other deals signed and be fair for both the player and the team. That would create a cap hit in the 5.66-5.80 range.
To be completely honest when I first started looking at Enstrom I was of the opinion that he should be traded for the forward help. After doing this I can not see a situation where trading Enstrom would benefit the team, if he is willing to sign an extension that is. If Bogo is the #1 D of the future he needs a running mate, his "Ryan Suter", Tobias is that player. The Jets need to pair up Bogo and Enstrom, Zach can play physical and cover Enstrom in that department while Toby can cover Zach positionally. They need to play together and they need to be deployed as a true top pair, logging top minutes and playing the toughest opponents. This opens up Buff to do his thing against the weaker players and will ultimately make the Jets a better team. If Bogo's offensive game progress's to the point where he can be the trigger man on the 1st PP then you look to trade Buff.
As a result of this you have to trade Ron Hainsey, hes going to cost to much to retain when you are already paying your top 3 over 13 million,(plus Bogos salary increase). Ether at the draft, or mid season but at some point he needs to be turned into an asset.
Of course opinions will differ on Enstrom so what do others think is the best option moving forward?
Very nice break down and thanks for the work wpgpage
I have no idea how this plays out but if they can't get an extension done this summer they have to maximize the asset. does Toby see himself in Winnipeg the next 3 to 5 years I really don't have a feel for that at all?
Whatever the numbers say, I know I don't care for what I see on the ice night in night out. Too ticky-tacky and very little confidence.
You must be watching a different team. He makes excellent passes under pressure and rarely causes any unforced turnoevers.
I prefer the wait and see approach. If any of our young defenceman are ready to contribute next year, trade Enstrom before the deadline. While he is a good player, he is going to cost us a lot of money and he can be used to bring in some more talent upfront. If no one is ready to take his place I say sign him to a 1-2 year deal.
Nice analysis. At this point I will only say that I am more conflicted with Toby than any other Jet. I really really would like to see him play with Bogo as they would be a dominant pairing in both ends.
I am in agreement with you. I think it would be great to sign him to a long term deal. Sure we could try to turn him into a forward, but it's also hard to find guys with Enstrom's talent as well. And I also agree with you that Enstrom should be with Bogo.
If an extension this summer isn't in the cards, or if Enstrom isn't going to sign here, it's best to know this summer to maximize his value IMO.
If we can get a bona fide top line forward for him, I say trade him. He's not a bad player by any means, but nor is he "pocket Lidstrom" (at least this year).
I can understand wanting to move him, if this is the case then it has to be this summer there is no point waiting until mid season it will only hurt the team. Again I would like to keep him but if he doesn't want to sign then it has to happen before training camp opens.
If we can get a bona fide top line forward for him, I say trade him. He's not a bad player by any means, but nor is he "pocket Lidstrom" (at least this year).
This is the view that I also have. He's OK but it would be nice to add a legitimate top 6 forward to the franchise.
He has played OK but is really soft behind the goal line in his own end.
I'm taking the wait and see approach. I think he had an off year this season, I'd like to see how he rebounds and plays next year.
Can you afford to do that though? Before the season starts you could most likely get a mid 1st and an NHL ready player, or 2 A prospects. At the trade deadline what do you get? A late first and a B prospect? Maybe a late first and an NHL ready player if a team is desperate. As much as we would all like to wait and see if Toby can play with Bogo, or if he can indeed handle being a true top pair I really don't think that's an option. It would just be to damaging to lose Toby for anything less than 2 players who can crack the D-core or top 6.
Can you afford to do that though? Before the season starts you could most likely get a mid 1st and an NHL ready player, or 2 A prospects. At the trade deadline what do you get? A late first and a B prospect? Maybe a late first and an NHL ready player if a team is desperate. As much as we would all like to wait and see if Toby can play with Bogo, or if he can indeed handle being a true top pair I really don't think that's an option. It would just be to damaging to lose Toby for anything less than 2 players who can crack the D-core or top 6.
I'm not sure that his value will be lowest during next season.
This was a pretty weak season by Toby and I think his value is pretty low (for him) right now. I think if I'm an opposing GM I'm looking to buy low with Enstrom. I think that if he rebounds and plays like the Toby of a couple seasons ago the return will be greater. It's not that he was awful this past year, but he certainly didn't play his best and that hurts his trade value.
Unless we get some kind of offer that absolutely blows us away, I say we try to sign Toby next year.
If a contract can't be worked out then look to deal him. I don't see his trade value fluctuating in the meantime.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wpgpage
Can you afford to do that though? Before the season starts you could most likely get a mid 1st and an NHL ready player, or 2 A prospects. At the trade deadline what do you get? A late first and a B prospect? Maybe a late first and an NHL ready player if a team is desperate. As much as we would all like to wait and see if Toby can play with Bogo, or if he can indeed handle being a true top pair I really don't think that's an option. It would just be to damaging to lose Toby for anything less than 2 players who can crack the D-core or top 6.
Even though this wasn't Enstrom's best year. He's still considered a top pairing 1-2 defenseman league-wide. Look at what some teams reportedly were offering for Suter.
He isn't your classic definition of rental either as whoever acquires him will immediately be looking to sign him.
You could be right but I just don't see how a GM could ask the same price for Toby with only 40 some odd games left as he could with a full season. Looking at the Kabrerle deal the Leafs got a very late 1st and a B prospect in Colborne, the rumoured deal at the start of the season was Wheeler plus the 1st or a prospect. Now I realize by the time they got Kabby Wheeler had already been dealt but if your the Leafs would you not rather have Wheeler and that pick (Biggs) rather than what they ended up getting?
He's going to get more than 5M per if you can get him at the Buff number 26/5 I would consider that a huge steal. I really think the Burns deal is the one that will be looked at as the best comparable both players are in very similar situations. Assuming you can get Bogo long term at around 4M per that's around 14 million locked up in your top 3 D which is pretty comparable to the other top teams in the league.
I'm all for re-signing him. Something similar to the Burns contract. If we can't re-sign him, then you deal him at the draft IMO. I don't want to have a Kaberle situation next year that could be a possible distraction to the team. Better to get players back before next season starts, rather than wait till the dead line when we have to make a trade. Chevy should be the one looking to initiate a deal, not waiting to see what offers come to him.
I'm all for re-signing him. Something similar to the Burns contract. If we can't re-sign him, then you deal him at the draft IMO. I don't want to have a Kaberle situation next year that could be a possible distraction to the team. Better to get players back before next season starts, rather than wait till the dead line when we have to make a trade. Chevy should be the one looking to initiate a deal, not waiting to see what offers come to him.
I agree Paradise. Chevy and Toby's agent are both going to have a high low range and unless the Jets have certainty he is going to be around for at least 3 years (minimum) then I don't think it would be great to drag it out.
If Cheveldayoff trades Enstrom, he should be run out of town faster than a Mike Milbury/JFJ hybrid.
Resign him long term. $5M for 5 years.
And what if Cheveldayoff talks with Enstrom this summer and Enstrom says he wants to explore Free Agency next year?
What do you do then? All your posts in regards to Enstrom have been to say how stupid Chevy would be to trade him. Have you thought for 1 second about the situation where Enstrom is NOT going to resign here? Or gives Chevy no indication that he even might? What is Chevy supposed to do then next year, keep his fingers crossed, hope for the best, and pray it doesn't turn into a constant distraction and circus show?
If they do decide to move him, the only thing that makes sense to me is to get a #1C back in return. I'm not interested in any 1st+prospect+3rd liner type deals. This team is building, not rebuilding, so the only type of deal that makes sense is one that makes us better immediately.
The exception is, of course, if he won't re-sign. Then you take what you can get at the deadline, and we curse the guy for the next 3 years
The more I think about this team, the more I think that either Toby should be traded for help up the middle. I feel like the team's been built on a flawed philosophy of "offense from the defense" and I don't think that gets you to a championship. You need strength up the middle and in net. There are a LOT of good pieces at other positions, but we really need a dominant #1C to make everything else fit into place.
I'd rather see them get a #1C, and backfill for Toby with a (cheaper) stay-at-home guy. Little drops down to the second line, Burmi to the third, and we look a lot more like a playoff team.
I agree with those who see Toby's value dropping as the season goes on. In the off season if we are unable to resign Toby, you need to start shopping him. I would think you cound get a first round pick and and a solid player, or maybe you trade him to move up in the draft and get additional prospects as well etc. A sell at next year's trade deadline will bring a lot less. Even worse, we hold onto him as a bubble team and fall short of the playoffs again. I would hate the Jets to be right where they are now again next season with an unsigned Enstrom. Then we have to over pay or watch him walk away for nothing. What would Suter be doing if Nasville failed to make the playoffs and GM's were lining up to throw cash at him? Toby's not a Suter, but he will get good offers.
And what if Cheveldayoff talks with Enstrom this summer and Enstrom says he wants to explore Free Agency next year?
What do you do then? All your posts in regards to Enstrom have been to say how stupid Chevy would be to trade him. Have you thought for 1 second about the situation where Enstrom is NOT going to resign here? Or gives Chevy no indication that he even might? What is Chevy supposed to do then next year, keep his fingers crossed, hope for the best, and pray it doesn't turn into a constant distraction and circus show?
Very true. Also what if he got us (in a package) a player like Duschene or Parise? Should we run Chevy out of town for that?
Again, it's absolute short sightedness. Calling something before knowing anything about the situation. (like saying the coach is horrible before he coaches game one)
If Chevy gets one of the pieces we desperately need up front (A big centre for the first line for example) then he has improved this hockey club very significantly.
Friendly ManiBROba
