Erik Karlsson vs other great offensive defencemen in history
As an Ottawa fan, I've watched Karlsson a lot this year. He's the best offensive defenceman I can remember seeing - but then, I can't really compare players before the year 2000.
How does he compare to the likes of Coffey, Leetch, Bourque, and Housley? Or even Bobby Orr?
Here's a statistical look at Karlsson's even strength points this year, now that he has hit 50 ESP on the season (first since Scott Stevens in 93-94.)
Rank
Year
Player
ESG
ESA
ESP
LgESG
$ESG
$ESA
$ESP
Forward
Shared%
1
1971
Bobby Orr
29
52
81
182
26
46
72
Phil Esposito
24%
2
1974
Bobby Orr
21
61
82
193
18
51
69
Phil Esposito
41%
3
1975
Bobby Orr
28
55
83
201
22
44
67
Phil Esposito
28%
4
1986
Paul Coffey
30
62
92
225
22
44
66
Wayne Gretzky
53%
5
1970
Bobby Orr
18
46
64
159
18
47
65
John McKenzie
22%
6
1972
Bobby Orr
22
50
72
179
20
45
65
Phil Esposito
32%
7
1984
Paul Coffey
25
55
80
230
17
38
56
Wayne Gretzky
51%
8
1985
Paul Coffey
23
53
76
228
16
37
54
Wayne Gretzky
48%
9
1977
Larry Robinson
16
52
68
205
13
41
53
Guy Lafleur
36%
10
2012
Erik Karlsson
16
34
50
162
16
34
50
Jason Spezza
38%
11
1973
Bobby Orr
21
40
61
201
17
32
49
Phil Esposito
30%
12
2010
Duncan Keith
10
38
48
165
10
37
47
Patrick Kane
27%
13
1992
Brian Leetch
11
44
55
190
9
37
47
NA
NA
14
1987
Ray Bourque
16
43
59
211
12
33
45
Charlie Simmer
22%
15
1974
Brad Park
21
32
53
193
18
27
44
Jean Ratelle
22%
16
1994
Scott Stevens
12
38
50
185
10
33
44
NA
NA
17
1978
Brad Park
13
42
55
204
10
33
43
Peter McNab
31%
18
1997
Brian Leetch
11
35
46
174
10
32
43
Mark Messier
49%
19
1991
Paul Coffey
16
35
51
194
13
29
42
NA
NA
20
1972
Brad Park
14
33
47
179
13
30
42
Jean Ratelle
37%
$ESP, $ESG, and $ESA are all adjusted to 162 ESG per team-season.
Karlsson is 10th in defenceman even strength points adjusted for scoring level since 1968. Only Bobby Orr, Paul Coffey, and Larry Robinson on the greatest team of all time have finished higher.
I've also noticed that Karlsson has worked together with Jason Spezza on a lot of his points this season. Spezza has been involved in 19 of Karlsson's 50 even strength points. So I also included a column showing the forward that collaborated with the player on the most ES points, and the percentage. The Karlsson-Spezza connection is a little on the high side, but nothing close to the Coffey-Gretzky combination.
I'm with you on this on OP.
He's been very impressive this season. Most importantly, he has improved his defensive play. Not saying he's a shut down guy or anything but definitely solid, holds his own and is no longer a liability out there at times.
What's most impressive is his even strength production for sure. He's a decent PP QB but has yet to really bring that to the next level.
When he does though, man, he could be the 6th D-man to crack 100 points or at least come close.
Lets just hope he can keep it up, haven't had a true top of the line offensive D-man in the league since Leetch, Mac and Bourque retired.
I think he's been comparable to the way Mike Green was in his two big seasons. For the sake of hockey let's hope he keeps that pace up for a while. Even if he ends up with a Housley-type career the truth is I still would want Housley on my team from an offensive standpoint.
But he has one season so far at the top. Let's see what he does. Will he turn into Drew Doughty and take the money and run? In 2010 after that great season from Doughty you probably had him side by side with Stamkos as to who was the better young player. Now, it isn't even close. Doughty has dropped his production. So let's hope Karlsson can maintain it.
I wouldn't put him up there with Bourque, Coffey, Leetch, MacInnis or Housley yet when it comes to offense. Those guys year after year threw together great seasons. They carried the play and controlled the speed and pace of the game. Housley could have run a power play until he was 60 years old.
So I think we need to see more of Karlsson here to ensure he isn't a flash in the pan. We probably didn't think Mike Green would be a flash in the pan but he either has to get back to his old level or he will be labelled as such.
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I was looking at this recently and it seems like it fits in this thread so I'll throw it in here. Here's the list of top even strength points per 60 performances by defenceman since 97-98 (min 20 EV points).
1. Erik Karlsson (11-12) - 1.80
2. Brian Rafalski (10-11) - 1.77
3. Mike Green (09-10) - 1.75
4. Sergei Gonchar (99-00) - 1.70
5. Duncan Keith (09-10) - 1.69
6. Joni Pitkanen (06-07) - 1.68
7. Mike Green (08-09) - 1.67
8. Brian Campbell (06-07) - 1.64
9. Sergei Gonchar (01-02) - 1.63
10. Niklas Kronwall (07-08) - 1.57
And here are the top 10 simply by points per game (min 50 games) during that time span.
1. Mike Green (08-09) - 1.07
2. Mike Green (09-10) - 1.01
3. Nicklas Lidstrom (05-06) - 1.00
4. Erik Karlsson (11-12) - 0.97
5. Brian Leetch (00-01) - 0.96
6. Bryan McCabe (05-06) - 0.93
7. Nicklas Lidstrom (07-08) - 0.92
8. Al MacInnis (00-01) - 0.92
9. Chris Pronger (00-01) - 0.92
10. Sergei Zubov (05-06) - 0.91
Last edited by Doomsday Device: 04-06-2012 at 03:23 AM.
Count me as very impressed with Karlsson as well.. He is a not a great defender by any means but he isa guy who skates well enough to be a double back defender, which really controls the flow of play. ... I find the comparison to Mike Green valid but he is a better skater than Green which gives him a greater dimension in the flow of play. As for his defense, it should improve but I think he will always need Cowen or some other big, mean d partner. The speed, the takeaways, and the decisiveness all indicate he will be special though.
Last edited by cursednumber6: 04-06-2012 at 04:22 PM.
That's an unfair comparison. Byfuglien has only played 65 games. He's on an 82-game pace of 67 points.
Nevertheless, staying healthy is a skill. And Byfuglien has had a great season anyhow (otherwise he wouldn't be the comparison player for Karlsson here).
In fact, the comparison is very fair (by any fair definition of "fair") - it just doesn't benefit Byfuglien in this instance.
Very impressive season. I think the the overall improvement of the Senators comes a lot from having a steady PP QB and offensive threat from the point. Look at how lethal the capitals can be when mike green is the PP QB. I also agree his defensive zone play has improved. If he can stay steady offensively and put up 60+ pts a year and improve his defensive play I think he could become a HoF defender. But to be honest, it is waay to early to be saying that. this is his first season that he is a plus player, and I would like to think its due to his improved play rather than the 30 pt jump in his stats.
I think he's been comparable to the way Mike Green was in his two big seasons. For the sake of hockey let's hope he keeps that pace up for a while. Even if he ends up with a Housley-type career the truth is I still would want Housley on my team from an offensive standpoint.
But he has one season so far at the top. Let's see what he does. Will he turn into Drew Doughty and take the money and run? In 2010 after that great season from Doughty you probably had him side by side with Stamkos as to who was the better young player. Now, it isn't even close. Doughty has dropped his production. So let's hope Karlsson can maintain it.
I wouldn't put him up there with Bourque, Coffey, Leetch, MacInnis or Housley yet when it comes to offense. Those guys year after year threw together great seasons. They carried the play and controlled the speed and pace of the game. Housley could have run a power play until he was 60 years old.
So I think we need to see more of Karlsson here to ensure he isn't a flash in the pan. We probably didn't think Mike Green would be a flash in the pan but he either has to get back to his old level or he will be labelled as such.
Green was 23 when he had his big year, Karlsson is only 21. Green also had injury problems, as did Doughty. I think Karlsson is better than Green was (or is) defensively.
Sure Karlsson has a lot to prove, but he's already done more than about 99% of 21 year-old Dmen ever.
What's most impressive is his even strength production for sure. He's a decent PP QB but has yet to really bring that to the next level.When he does though, man, he could be the 6th D-man to crack 100 points or at least come close.
Lets just hope he can keep it up, haven't had a true top of the line offensive D-man in the league since Leetch, Mac and Bourque retired.
I think most of this is reliant on his surroundings. At some point, he'll probably play on a power play that has 5 guys that are ideal for a top unit...and not 2.5-3 like he has now.
As far as PP QB skill set...it's already evident there is no one that has what he has. It's a matter of time, he's a sponge. Some of the stuff he does, I've personally never seen from a Dman in my lifetime...relatively young still though.
I think people are getting a little carried away here. Karlsson had a great year, no doubt about it, but it's early going for his career and I also feel that instead of thinking Orr or Coffey, Mike Green seems like maybe a name one should consider first.
I mean the stats posted here are actually quite funny in their selective nature, first we're looking at *adjusted* even strength points, then it's % over the 2nd placed D-man never mind the guy missed 17 games (or the fact that it's not 1992 and most good teams don't let D-men play like Karlsson is playing for a fringe playoff team).
As I said, lovely season but before you break out all the metrics to make a point that simply isn't there, let's just relax and wait.
And the most dominant by a guy not named Orr, Coffey, or Kelly.
True his domination has been impressive but Big Buff and Letang have both missed time with injuries, had those guys been healthy the margin would ahve been quite less.
That being said it was probably a bit easier for Coffey and Orr to have a larger margin due to their teams utter dominance on the rest of the pack, especially offensively.
I'm with Phil here a great Mike Green type of season, let's hope he keeps it up and injuries don't derail his career like they ahve done with Mike Green.
I think people are getting a little carried away here. Karlsson had a great year, no doubt about it, but it's early going for his career and I also feel that instead of thinking Orr or Coffey, Mike Green seems like maybe a name one should consider first.
I mean the stats posted here are actually quite funny in their selective nature, first we're looking at *adjusted* even strength points, then it's % over the 2nd placed D-man never mind the guy missed 17 games (or the fact that it's not 1992 and most good teams don't let D-men play like Karlsson is playing for a fringe playoff team).
As I said, lovely season but before you break out all the metrics to make a point that simply isn't there, let's just relax and wait.
You have to adjust EV points for scoring level if you want to compare today's players to players from the 70s, 80s, or early 90s. The scoring level is a lot lower today than in those seasons. Since I want to look at Karlsson's season in a historical perspective I use adjusted points. This is obvious and no reasonable argument against it exists.
As for leaving out PP points, Karlsson actually finished second among defencemen in PP points, so it's not as if he's lacking there. It's just not where his season has been historically good.
His unadjusted PP points are low compared to most other seasons, because there just haven't been very many penalties called or PP goals scored this season. And teammates make a bigger difference on the PP than ES, and while he has some skilled teammates they don't exactly measure up to the teammates that, say, Paul Coffey or Mike Green had.
The thing that sets it apart is that it is the 3rd season for a player 4 years out of his draft year that is still 21 and going to play all next season as a 22 year old.
Since drafted he has gone from 10 points in the Swedish elite league to 26 points as a rookie NHLer to 45 points to 78 points. All while being one of the lightest weight defencemen in the NHL.
His upward potential is huge. As a none finished product he is able to dominate NHL defenceman scoring. Getting 50 ES points when the next best D-Man has 34 ES points. Being second in PP points. His defence has improved each season, or almost every month of his career, his upward trajectory on defence is higher then his upward move offensively it is just not as obviously seen in statistics.
He doesn't play a purely offensive role, he competes defensively just as hard as he does on offence. He cheats at the proper moments and is not just playing the role of a guy trying to score. He makes STELLAR defensive plays all the time, plays few others or no one else is likely to make in the NHL. (some are made fixing his own mistakes though!) He also gets beat on plays when stuck in the defensive zone that the average NHL defenceman is going to contain. He is unique, and by no means poor defensively overall. He isn't near the very best of the best defensively but he is far above average for an NHL defenceman.
He reminds me of an extremely offensively aggressive Lidstrom. He has some of the same skills Lidstrom does on defence, like a strong ability to get guys going on the outside with his stick, ability to anticipate breaking up passes, an ability to get the steal the puck in most situations. He has much better speed as well, and an increasingly better read on how to position himself. Increased positioning this season is maybe his biggest improvement. Now Lidstrom rarely gambles, Karlsson will but it is calculated, he does not just seek to make low percentage plays if they give the team an offensive chance. Heck Spezza still does that more then Karlsson and Spezza has improved on doing that a great deal over the years.
It is not a given Karlsson continues to improve, but as a guy who has watched most his games he has given no reason to think he has stopped making dramatic improvements. He should improve offensively and defensively for several more seasons barring injury. He will get stronger and smarter on defence, improving until he is likely among the very best in the NHL overall even if he uses a unique skill set and style to do it. Offensively he is already top among defencemen and likely to improve. Won't be surprised if he scores 80-90 points each season and gets 100 at least once.
It is not a given Karlsson continues to improve, but as a guy who has watched most his games he has given no reason to think he has stopped making dramatic improvements. He should improve offensively and defensively for several more seasons barring injury. He will get stronger and smarter on defence, improving until he is likely among the very best in the NHL overall even if he uses a unique skill set and style to do it. Offensively he is already top among defencemen and likely to improve. Won't be surprised if he scores 80-90 points each season and gets 100 at least once.
It's been a great year but scoring 80-90 points year in year out and at least 100 once in a more balanced schedule, when it comes up, seems highly improbable given the current rules in the NHL.
I had similar excitement and feeling about Letang going into this season but we see how that ended.
It would be very interesting to see how both Kalsson and Letang do next year offensively and if a guy like Dougie Hamilton can reach his full potential in Boston or any of the other top Dmen in the 2012 draft.
It's been a great year but scoring 80-90 points year in year out and at least 100 once in a more balanced schedule, when it comes up, seems highly improbable given the current rules in the NHL.
I had similar excitement and feeling about Letang going into this season but we see how that ended.
It would be very interesting to see how both Kalsson and Letang do next year offensively and if a guy like Dougie Hamilton can reach his full potential in Boston or any of the other top Dmen in the 2012 draft.
Well the reason I would think he can do 80-90 regularly is he is an incredibly young player still visibly improving all the time. 78 in 81 games for a 21 year old undersized defenseman? Top 10 in scoring? 3rd in NHL in assists? If he was 23 or 24 and fully filled out and doing this it would be different but to do it this year.... Is astonishing. Thinking he can have sustained production 10-15% higher doesn't seem unreasonably to me.
Letang is awesome as well... Far better defensively and almost as good offensively. If he can get healthy and has Crosby and Malkin healthy for a year he could get a PPG or maybe a bit more than that.
Both will likely be Norris contenders or winners for years...
