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Referee Analytics: An Analysis of Penalty Rates by National Hockey League Officials

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04-06-2012, 01:24 AM
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Referee Analytics: An Analysis of Penalty Rates by National Hockey League Officials

if anyone is interested in scientific research on hockey


Referee Analytics: An Analysis of Penalty Rates by National Hockey League Officials

Michael Schuckers, Lauren Brozowski

St. Lawrence University and Statistical Sports Consulting, LLC


Penalties in ice hockey change the game by reducing the number of players on the ice from the team that committed the infraction. In this analysis, we investigate factors that impact rates of penalties with particular focus on the impact of individual officials. Using play-by-play data collected from NHL.com for the 2008-09 and 2009-10 regular seasons, we develop a logistic regression model to predict the probability of a penalty occurring that accounts for the on-ice officials as well as how close the score is, the period, the time remaining in the period, and the teams playing the game. Our original use of play level data accounts for the amount of action at a given time in a game. This is the first analysis of referees done at the individual play level of which we are aware. We find that no individual referee or linesman differs significantly from the rest. Further we confirm empirically two things that even casual NHL fans have observed. First, the home team is less likely to be called for a penalty than the visiting team and, second, late in close games, the rate at which officials call penalties drops precipitously (and the same is true for overtime games).

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04-06-2012, 01:27 AM
pretty damn valuable
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Interesting study, though the abstract read at about the 6th grade level with a lot left to be desired grammatically and punctuation-wiseI'm going to dissect this puppy a bit before a deeper, more detailed response. Thanks for posting.

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