An interesting analysis by a poster who had a nice argument against Gretzky's 92 goals season being by far the most impressive of all time. With Stamkos nearing 60 goals in a season where he is the only 50 goal scorer, how does Gretkzy's 92 goals stack up to let's say, Ovechkin's 65 or Hull's 86?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Saku
We all know that the 92 goals season by Gretzky will never be achieved again if there are no drastic changes to the rules. Some would argue that scoring 60 goals in 2012 is more impressive than scoring 80 goals in the 80s. For that matter, I tried to make a statistical comparison in order to observe the differences between an era to another and come up with conclusions as to what would be considered the equivalent of a 92 goals in today's NHL.
Methodology
Basically, the methodology is quite simple. For each season starting from 1960, I took the higher goal per game for a player and then divided it by the average goal per game for the season.
This number would give the percentage of goals scored by the highest goal scorer per game. In other words, it means that if the average goals per game is 5 goals, and if a player scores 0.5 goals per game, then the player would have a 10% goals scored each game.
I didn’t take the top scorer per season. Instead, I took the player that have highest goal per game. However, the minimum games required was 40 games/season.
Example:
In 2011-2012 season, the average goal per game is 5.44 goals.
Steven Stamkos has a 0.725 goal per game.
Result = 0.725/5.44 = 13.33% (This percentage mean that Stamkos scores 13.33% of the goals during a game)
Disclaimer
This is by no mean supposed to be a scientific research. Take it for what it’s worth.
Results
Season
avg g/g
Top scorer
g/g
%
1960-1961
6.00
Bernie Geoffrion
0.781
13.02
1961-1962
6.02
Bobby Hull
0.714
11.86
1962-1963
5.95
Gordie How
0.543
9.13
1963-1964
5.55
Bobby Hull
0.614
11.06
1964-1965
5.75
Bobby Hull
0.639
11.11
1965-1966
6.08
Bobby Hull
0.831
13.67
1966-1967
5.96
Bobby Hull
0.788
13.22
1967-1968
5.58
Stan Mikita
0.556
9.96
1968-1969
5.96
Bobby Hull
0.784
13.15
1969-1970
5.81
Phil Esposito
0.566
9.74
1970-1971
6.24
Phil Esposito
0.974
15.61
1971-1972
6.13
Phil Esposito
0.868
14.16
1972-1973
6.55
Phil Esposito
0.705
10.76
1973-1974
6.39
Phil Esposito
0.872
13.65
1974-1975
6.85
Phil Esposito
0.772
11.27
1975-1976
6.82
Reggie Leach
0.762
11.17
1976-1977
6.64
Steve Shutt
0.750
11.30
1977-1978
6.59
Guy Lafleur
0.769
11.67
1978-1979
7.00
Mike Bossy
0.863
12.33
1979-1980
7.03
Charlie Simmer
0.875
12.45
1980-1981
7.69
Charlie Simmer
0.862
11.21
1981-1982
8.03
Wayne Gretzky
1.150
14.32
1982-1983
7.73
Wayne Gretzky
0.887
11.47
1983-1984
7.89
Wayne Gretzky
1.176
14.90
1984-1985
7.77
Jari Kurri
0.973
12.52
1985-1986
7.94
Jari Kurri
0.872
10.98
1986-1987
7.34
Mario Lemieux
0.857
11.68
1987-1988
7.43
Mario Lemieux
0.909
12.23
1988-1989
7.48
Mario Lemieux
1.118
14.95
1989-1990
7.37
Brett Hull
0.900
12.21
1990-1991
6.91
Brett Hull
1.103
15.96
1991-1992
6.96
Brett Hull
0.959
13.78
1992-1993
7.25
Mario Lemieux
1.150
15.86
1993-1994
6.48
Cam Neely
1.020
15.74
1994-1995
5.97
Peter Bondra
0.723
12.11
1995-1996
6.29
Mario Lemieux
0.986
15.68
1996-1997
5.83
Jaromir Jagr
0.746
12.80
1997-1998
5.28
Teemu Selanne
0.712
13.48
1998-1999
5.27
Teemu Selanne
0.627
11.90
1999-2000
5.49
Pavel Bure
0.784
14.28
2000-2001
5.51
Mario Lemieux
0.814
14.77
2001-2002
5.24
Jarome Iginla
0.634
12.10
2002-2003
5.31
Milan Hejduk
0.609
11.47
2003-2004
5.14
Ilya Kovalchuk
0.506
9.84
2004-2005
0.00
2005-2006
6.17
Jonathan Cheechoo
0.683
11.07
2006-2007
5.89
Vincent Lecavalier
0.634
10.76
2007-2008
5.57
Alex Ovechkin
0.793
14.24
2008-2009
5.83
Alex Ovechkin
0.709
12.16
2009-2010
5.68
Alex Ovechkin
0.694
12.22
2010-2011
5.59
Sidney Crosby
0.780
13.95
2011-2012
5.44
Steven Stamkos
0.725
13.33
Observations
1) The top 5 most impressive seasons are:
1. 1990-91: Brett Hull, 15.96%, 86 goals in 78 games
2. 1992-93: Mario Lemieux, 15.86%, 69 goals in 60 games
3. 1993-94: Cam Neely, 15.74%, 50 goals in 49 games
4. 1995-96: Mario Lemieux, 15.68%, 69 goals in 70 games
5. 1970-71: Phil Esposito, 15.61%, 76 goals in 78 games
2) Gretzky's 92 goals season in 81-82 is NOT the most impressive one. As shown, all of the above records are more impressive.
3) The most impressive season in the post-lockout is 2007-08 Alex Ovechkin’s 65 goals in 82 games (14.24%) which is arguably as impressive as Gretzky’s 92 goals in 81-82 (14.24% vs 14.32%). Another comparison with Gretzky’s record is Pavel Bure’s 58 goals in 74 games in 1999-2000 (14.28%).
4) The most impressive season in the dead puck era is 2000-01 Mario Lemieux’s 35 goals in 43 games (14.77%) which is even more impressive than Gretzky’s record season. To get an idea, Lemieux’s 35 goals in 2000-2001 would have been projected to 66 goals in 82 games.
5) There is not a single player that stood out over the rest on an extended timeframe. The most impressive numbers for a single player are Mario Lemieux’s with seasons as high as 15.86%, 15.68%, 14.95% , 14.77% but was not at the top other than these 4 seasons.
6) The top guys in today’s NHL are as dominating, if not, more dominating than the top players in the 60s, 70s and 80s. The 90s being an exception with guys like Hull, Lemieux, Bure and Selanne who had records way over the average numbers.
7) The equivalent of Gretzky's 92 goals record in 2011-2012 would be 64 goals
8) If we take for instance, the top scorer of last year, Corey Perry, his 50 goals in 82 games would be the equivalent of 74 goals in 1981-82 and 67 goals in 92-93!
Conclusion
As a conclusion I prepared this table that shows the equivalent of 50 goals in 2011-2012 in previous seasons.
Season
Goals
1959-1960
54.23
1960-1961
55.15
1961-1962
55.33
1962-1963
54.69
1963-1964
51.01
1964-1965
52.85
1965-1966
55.88
1966-1967
54.78
1967-1968
51.29
1968-1969
54.78
1969-1970
53.40
1970-1971
57.35
1971-1972
56.34
1972-1973
60.20
1973-1974
58.73
1974-1975
62.96
1975-1976
62.68
1976-1977
61.03
1977-1978
60.57
1978-1979
64.34
1979-1980
64.61
1980-1981
70.68
1981-1982
73.81
1982-1983
71.05
1983-1984
72.52
1984-1985
71.42
1985-1986
72.98
1986-1987
67.46
1987-1988
68.29
1988-1989
68.75
1989-1990
67.74
1990-1991
63.51
1991-1992
63.97
1992-1993
66.64
1993-1994
59.56
1994-1995
54.87
1995-1996
57.81
1996-1997
53.58
1997-1998
48.53
1998-1999
48.44
1999-2000
50.46
2000-2001
50.64
2001-2002
48.16
2002-2003
48.81
2003-2004
47.24
2004-2005
0.00
2005-2006
56.71
2006-2007
54.14
2007-2008
51.19
2008-2009
53.58
2009-2010
52.21
2010-2011
51.38
2011-2012
50.00
A plot of this chart is attached to the thread.
References
I used the following two references to collect my data:
1) It would be interesting to compare with eras between the 20s and the 50s but I didn't include them because I thought it would be too long, if you'd like I can make a comparison with them
2) I would have also liked to make the same exercise for number of points but it's almost impossible because there is no reference that gives the average number of points collected by players during a game, and it's difficult to predict, because a goal could go unassisted, one assist or two assists.
An interesting analysis by a poster who had a nice argument against Gretzky's 92 goals season being by far the most impressive of all time. With Stamkos nearing 60 goals in a season where he is the only 50 goal scorer, how does Gretkzy's 92 goals stack up to let's say, Ovechkin's 65 or Hull's 86?
I still think Gretzky's 87 goals in 74 games in 83-84 is more impressive than his 92 goal season. Highest GPG average of all time. And he had 100 goals that year including playoffs - something that nobody, not even him, has ever accomplished before or since.
Great read, but I think I would appreciate the study a lot more if it used actual goals scored rather than goals per game. If the goal is to determine the most impressive full season, does it really make sense to use "per game" numbers?
Can a season where Cam Neely only plays 49 of 84 available games really be the third most impressive goal scoring season of all time? I'll tell you one thing, I would definitely take Gretzky's 92 goal season over Cam Neely's 50 goal season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe
This has to be more impressive than Neely's 50 in 49, even taking scoring level into account, right?
Gretzky first 39 games of 81-82: 1.28 GPG
Neely's 93-94 season: 1.02 GPG
Using the second step of the OP's methodology:
1.28/8.03 = 15.96% for Gretzky in 1981-82 through 39 games
1.02/6.48 = 15.74% for Neely in 1993-94 for his 49 games
Then Gretzky proceeded to actually finish the season, though at at slightly lower rate.
I really don't think 92 goals back then would be nearly as impressive as 92 goals today.
I don't know about that. I was around then and that feat was pretty ****ing impressive... considering he blew away the previous record for goals in a season by 16. In doing so, he was also destroying a record that was, when it happened, an even larger statistical outlier (Esposito beat the previous record by 18 goals... albeit against lesser opposition). Impressive... pants****tingly impressive, even. People talked about it... people who hated hockey talked about it... people who lived in countries where they don't play hockey knew about Gretzky.
Ovie, Stamkos, Brett Hull... all deserve serious kudos for racking up some of the greatest scoring seasons in the history of hockey, but 92 is 92.
/Interestingly enough, Barry Bonds' single season HR record* is almost the same order of magnitude better than Babe Ruth's as Gretzky's is from Esposito's.
Last edited by Ogie Goldthorpe: 04-06-2012 at 03:55 PM.
92 is not 92, it's absurd to say that. It's now harder to get big point totals in 2011-12 than it was in the 1992-93. That's just an obvious fact.
92 is in fact 92.... Numbers are like that.
While I agree scoring 92 in 2012 would be more impressive, 59 in 2012 just isn't as impressive.
People still try for 50 in 50 because Rocket did it in one of the weakest seasons in NHL history when most players were in WWII... Still it was a goal a game!!!!
People remember the truly memorable seasons like Ruth with 60 home runs in baseball. Or 200 points for Gretzky... Or the 50 in 50 for Rocket.
If someone got 70 goals or a goal a game today... Or 150 points them you can start arguing to compare it to Gretzky's records in a different era. 59 goals, or even 65 doesn't cut the mustard.
IMO, Bobby Hull's goal scoring exploits are a bit overrated by the fact that he faced very little competition from other elite goal scorers in the mid 1960s. A Frank Mahovlich held back by Punch Imlach, an aging Gordie Howe, and a Norm Ullman were a far cry from prime Gordie Howe, Maurice Richard, Bernard Geoffrion, and Andy Bathgate who all competed against each other in the 1950s. Jean Beliveau and Stan Mikita were dominant overall offensive players in the 1960s, but not really that close to the 1950s guys as pure goal scorers.
I used to buy that Bobby Hull's best seasons were better than Gretzky's 92 (as a goal scorer only, not as an all-round offensive player), but Gretzky beat a prime Mike Bossy 92-64 in one of Bossy's best seasons.
IMO, Bobby Hull's goal scoring exploits are a bit overrated by the fact that he faced very little competition from other elite goal scorers in the mid 1960s. A Frank Mahovlich held back by Punch Imlach, an aging Gordie Howe, and a Norm Ullman were a far cry from prime Gordie Howe, Maurice Richard, Bernard Geoffrion, and Andy Bathgate who all competed against each other in the 1950s. Jean Beliveau and Stan Mikita were dominant overall offensive players in the 1960s, but not really that close to the 1950s guys as pure goal scorers.
I used to buy that Bobby Hull's best seasons were better than Gretzky's 92 (as a goal scorer only, not as an all-round offensive player), but Gretzky beat a prime Mike Bossy 92-64 in one of Bossy's best seasons.
Here we go. Downgrading someone's accomplishments because they were that much better than everyone else. Three 50 and more seasons in the defensive oriented late original 6 is an incredible accomplishment. I say Hull's dominance beats Gretzky's regarding goal scoring dominance.
Here we go. Downgrading someone's accomplishments because they were that much better than everyone else. Three 50 and more seasons in the defensive oriented late original 6 is an incredible accomplishment. I say Hull's dominance beats Gretzky's regarding goal scoring dominance.
So beating out Frank Mahovlich is as impressive as beating out Mike Bossy in your mind?
I'm aware there is a good argument that Bobby Hull was the best goal scorer ever, but I don't think it's as clear cut as "he beat out second place by a greater percentage than anyone else."
So beating out Frank Mahovlich is as impressive as beating out Mike Bossy in your mind?
I'm aware there is a good argument that Bobby Hull was the best goal scorer ever, but I don't think it's as clear cut as "he beat out second place by a greater percentage than anyone else."
Does it really matter who they beat out? The fact that Hull was able to score over 50 in the original 6 is what matters. Others came close but nobody else did it. BTW, Mahovlich was no slouch as a goal scorer even under Imlach. In 61, he scored 48 and looked like he would be the first guy to break 50. Personally, I think Mahovlich's 48, Gordie Howe's 49,Geoffrion's 50 are far more impressive than any single season Bossy had.
Does it really matter who they beat out? The fact that Hull was able to score over 50 in the original 6 is what matters. Others came close but nobody else did it. BTW, Mahovlich was no slouch as a goal scorer even under Imlach. In 61, he scored 48 and looked like he would be the first guy to break 50. Personally, I think Mahovlich's 48, Gordie Howe's 49,Geoffrion's 50 are far more impressive than anything Bossy did.
And Gretzky was able to score over 90 in the 1980s. Others came close but nobody did it.
So Mahovlich scored 48 in 1961, but only 32 in 1965. If Mahovlich's 48 goal season was in 1965, would that make Bobby Hull a worse player somehow? I just don't see the % over second place to be a very useful measure of goal scoring dominance - it often tells more about the second place scorer than it does about the first place scorer.
I think Bobby Hull very well may have the most impressive goal scoring season of all time, but I'm not as sure about it as I used to be.
This is true you get all this adjusted and peer comparison is not better than actual goals, but you rarely heard this when comparing goaltender from the 80' and today.
Hull's 86 is the highest adjusted goal scoring season ever at almost 80adjusted goals. He was automatic that year.
Neely's 50 in 49 is my personal favorite though. Sooo much heart. He led the league with 13 game winners that year too!!
Its very simple, if you are age 30-40 and grew up in new england, cam neely was god.
The thing about Brett Hull, is he only had 45 assists, and focussed entirely on scoring those 86 goals. Gretzky had 120 assists (almost 3 times as many as Hull), and focussed more on creating plays and scoring chances. Despite this, he was still able to score 92 goals! Just imagine if he had focussed entirely on goals like Hull? How many would he have scored? 120? 130? Let's adjust that...
IMO, Bobby Hull's goal scoring exploits are a bit overrated by the fact that he faced very little competition from other elite goal scorers in the mid 1960s. A Frank Mahovlich held back by Punch Imlach, an aging Gordie Howe, and a Norm Ullman were a far cry from prime Gordie Howe, Maurice Richard, Bernard Geoffrion, and Andy Bathgate who all competed against each other in the 1950s. Jean Beliveau and Stan Mikita were dominant overall offensive players in the 1960s, but not really that close to the 1950s guys as pure goal scorers.
I used to buy that Bobby Hull's best seasons were better than Gretzky's 92 (as a goal scorer only, not as an all-round offensive player), but Gretzky beat a prime Mike Bossy 92-64 in one of Bossy's best seasons.
Some people might make too much of the % over the next guy in individual seasons but leading the NHL in goal scoring 7 times is an incredible feat period in my books and that's why hull and Beliveau as 2 guys I always flop flop on for the 5th best player of all time.
Bure when he scored 58 goals, 31.8% better than 2nd place while missing 8 games ( and probably struggling for a few after, during injury ).
Amazing. Panthers are nowhere near playoffs without him.
9 of those were into an empty net, and he held a significantly high margin above #2 because there was a void at the top usually filled by Selanne (33 goals because of the effects of his leg - this after having three-straight 50-goal seasons) and Jagr (42 goals because he missed 19 games), hence why 2nd and 3rd place were Nolan and Amonte. By comparison, Selanne beat an actual goaltender 50 times in 1998 despite missing 9 games in an even lower-scoring season. Bure in 2000 wasn't the best of the years surrounding the turn of the century, let alone all-time.
