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Sidney Crosby's last statistical 82 games

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04-06-2012, 11:10 AM
  #1
vecens24
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Sidney Crosby's last statistical 82 games

Before saying anything, I'm going to mention this is entirely conjecture, and it's difficult to garner any actual real meaning from it due to it being accumulated over two seasons as opposed to third place's single season. I just think it's a pretty outrageous statistic.

Crosby has scored 133 points in his last 82. That would give him a 36% advantage on third place this season, Steven Stamkos, giving Stamkos a generous 2 points in his final game to lift him to 98. The reason I say third place is because it's difficult to tackle the Malkin issue with them being teammates.

In my research (post expansion only), I've only come up with with a few seasons of defeating third place by about 25%. Jagr in both 99 and 2000 (both around 25%), Lemieux in '96 (34%), 89 (28%), 88 (28%), Gretzky (>35% multiple times), Lafleur in 77 (29%), Esposito '74 (38%) '73 (30%), 71 (by 31%, however all top 4 scorers were Bruins), Orr '70 (39%).

Therefore, basically only the 70s Bruins four times, Gretzky I believe 8 times (I lost track after a while), Lemieux once, and Lafleur once have defeated 3rd place by 35%. Jagr came close. So in the past 45 years of hockey, there are only 14 examples of this, 12 of them coming from two singular examples.

So I guess my question is two-fold. How ridiculously dominant has Crosby been statistically over his last 82 comparatively, and do we think that honestly this could possibly be a transitional period of weak hockey where Crosby is just rising to the top of as an all-time great?

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04-06-2012, 11:19 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Curious to see what Ovechkin looks like if you look at his 2009-10 season before the suspension and then go back into the end of 2008-09.

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04-06-2012, 11:23 AM
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jigglysquishy
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I have an Excel file that lists the percent domination of 1st to 2nd place from 1950 to today.

I haven't started on the 3rd place, but I could certainly do it and post it on here.

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04-06-2012, 11:35 AM
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overpass
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Curious to see what Ovechkin looks like if you look at his 2009-10 season before the suspension and then go back into the end of 2008-09.
Last 8 regular season games of 2008-09: 6 G, 10 A, 16 P
14 playoff games in 2009: 11 G, 10 A, 21 P
First 60 regular season games of 2009-10: 44 G, 52 A, 96 P

Over 82 games: 61 G, 72 A, 133 P

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04-06-2012, 11:41 AM
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vecens24
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Last 8 regular season games of 2008-09: 6 G, 10 A, 16 P
14 playoff games in 2009: 11 G, 10 A, 21 P
First 60 regular season games of 2009-10: 44 G, 52 A, 96 P

Over 82 games: 61 G, 72 A, 133 P
That's just super outrageous. Unreal there too. Guy was every bit as good a point producer as Crosby was (maybe better honestly)

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04-06-2012, 11:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
Before saying anything, I'm going to mention this is entirely conjecture, and it's difficult to garner any actual real meaning from it due to it being accumulated over two seasons as opposed to third place's single season. I just think it's a pretty outrageous statistic.
Crosby's last 82 games are actually over 3 separate seasons.
Third place in the first two of those seasons was 109 and 98 points.

For comparison's sake:

Lindros had 135 points in 82 consecutive games over the '95 and '96 seasons. In another period that did not overlap with that one, he had 131 points over the '96, '97 and '98 seasons.

Jagr had 146 points over the '99 and '00 seasons. He also had 151 points over the '95 and '96 seasons, not much higher than his banner 1996 season.

I'm sure Lemieux's best 82 consecutive games are mind-blowing. For instance he had 176 points over '96 and '97. He obviously had higher than that previously, but league scoring was over 7 GPG so it's hard to compare.

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04-06-2012, 12:01 PM
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overpass
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
I'm sure Lemieux's best 82 consecutive games are mind-blowing. For instance he had 176 points over '96 and '97. He obviously had higher than that previously, but league scoring was over 7 GPG so it's hard to compare.
I don't know if this is Mario's best but...

Last 6 regular season games of 1991-92
15 playoff games in 1991-92
60 regular season games in 1992-93
The first playoff game of 1992-93

He scored 93 G, 123 A, and 216 P. (One ahead of Gretzky's single season records in goals and points.)

I'm sure Gretzky beat those numbers at some point - just looking at his 1983-84 regular season and his first 8 playoff games in 1984 he had 92 G, 129 A, 221 P.

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04-06-2012, 12:05 PM
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Lemieux had 199 points in 76 games in 88-89.

If you tack on the last 4 games of 87-88 that turns into

80 games - 90 goals - 117 assists - 207 points

If you tack on the first 4 games of 89-90 that turns into

80 games - 85 goals - 1222 assists - 207 points



A more interesting look is at Lemieux's 92-93 season. He had 160 points in 60 games. That's the second highest PPG ever (after Gretzky's 205 points in 74 games). Lemieux had the benefit of playing in an 84 game season. Let's hop to it then.

The season as is

60 games - 69 goals - 91 assists - 160 points

using the last 24 games of the 91-92 season gets

84 games - 84 goals - 129 assists - 213 points

using the 22 games of the 93-94 season and first 2 games of the 95-96 season. To get to the 84 games you need to go start in 92-93 and end in 95-96

84 games - 88 goals - 116 assists - 204 points


I want to do Gretzky's 205 points in 74 games, but there were no game logs back then (that I know of).

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04-06-2012, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
I want to do Gretzky's 205 points in 74 games, but there were no game logs back then (that I know of).
I checked the Hockey Summary Project site for the boxscores. http://hsp.flyershistory.com/

It's a bit more time consuming than a game log and harder to find the absolute best 82 games.

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04-06-2012, 12:13 PM
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Ohashi_Jouzu
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85 goals + 1222 assists = 1307 pts

But yeah, logs where overpass pointed to: http://www.flyershistory.com/cgi-bin/hspgames.cgi

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04-06-2012, 12:49 PM
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BenchBrawl
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yeah but by making stats like this , I'm sure you could find some insane numbers by taking end of season-beginning of seasons of other players from the past.

One could make a case that Crosby was injured therefore below his level , or that crosby was rested and above the level if he played the entire year.

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04-09-2012, 01:29 AM
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I would like to know what Brian Savage's 82 game pace would be if you only looked at games played in October.

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04-09-2012, 01:44 AM
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
yeah but by making stats like this , I'm sure you could find some insane numbers by taking end of season-beginning of seasons of other players from the past.

One could make a case that Crosby was injured therefore below his level , or that crosby was rested and above the level if he played the entire year.
Perhaps, but at some point it goes beyond making him look good. During the "streak" in 10/11, we were discussing when Crosby took off as a 130+ point scorer and never looked back.

It was game #27 of the 2009/2010 regular season, versus the Rangers. November 28, 2009 to be exact, and Crosby got 5 points that game. Since then, in 131 games, including playoffs, he has:

85 goals
121 assists
206 points

That is a huge sample size and more than enough to base judgement on. It prorates, over an 82 game season, to:

53 goals
76 assists
129 points.

Obviously the injuries are unfortunate, but I think that history will look at this stretch as one of the greatest feats ever, especially considering:

- His very good defensive play and >55% faceoff percentage
- Him being for the majority of the time on a line with Kunitz and Dupuis, or Cooke and Sullivan.
- The high proportion of even strength goals (don't have exact figures but Pittsburgh's PP wasn't great for the majority of the time)
- The proportion of the team's goals he factored into during this stretch. It was over 45% I believe.


I'd be very curious to see the last time someone has been as dominant for such a long stretch of time. Probably Jagr in the late 90s, but he still mailed it in sometimes and I don't think he had a 130 game stretch like this.

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04-09-2012, 02:15 AM
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BenchBrawl
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Jagr was just as dominant as Crosby is now , but Jagr was rarely injured.

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04-09-2012, 03:18 AM
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Joe Thornton was every bit as Dominant or maybe more so as Crosby in 82 games in 05-06

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04-09-2012, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by FakeKidPoker View Post
Joe Thornton was every bit as Dominant or maybe more so as Crosby in 82 games in 05-06
But Thorton did less point in 82 games, in a period where the nhl was scoring much more goals by games with better wingers.

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04-09-2012, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by billybudd View Post
I would like to know what Brian Savage's 82 game pace would be if you only looked at games played in October.
Well, adding up all the games he played in October for Montreal, this is what I came up with:

Gp: 66
G: 41
A: 20
Pts: 61
Pim: 28
+/-: -13
Shots: 175
Shooting %: 23.4%

Considering that his next highest goal total is 26, point total is 60, and that his shooting % never broke 20% (not counting the season where he played three games), this is ridiculous. Not only that, but in two of the "Octobers" he only had a combined 11 games and 2 points. Remove those, and is he above a point per game.

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04-09-2012, 05:35 PM
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Joe Thornton's actually about just as good now as he was then. The 1/3 drop in points was the decline in league scoring, the decline in powerplays (which suited his game), and McLellan using him as a power-on-power two-way guy whereas Wilson just sheltered him and sent him to the half boards. He turned from Henrik Sedin to Henrik Zetterburg or Pavel Datsyuk.

Anyway, Crosby. Yeah that is very impressive, but it needs to put into the context that we're cherry-picking samples, which can always give you a better PPG, and that those huge rests probably helped in PPG terms.

I hope to God he plays a full season next year, not as a fan or detractor, but just so we can get a clearer idea of how good he is one way or another. I've never thought of him as the best player in the world but if he can get 120+ points in a full 82 game season in today's NHL, I will likely have to change my mind.

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04-09-2012, 05:38 PM
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LeBlondeDemon10
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I am curious as to why you chose the third leading scorer to illustrate your point.

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04-09-2012, 05:39 PM
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Best would probably be 10th leading scorer or so. You want it to be a star player, but the lower the seed you compare to the less randomness there is.

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04-09-2012, 08:28 PM
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SidGenoMario
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There's no cherry picking of statistics here. This is literally a period of 82 games in a row.

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04-09-2012, 08:46 PM
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Originally Posted by billybudd View Post
I would like to know what Brian Savage's 82 game pace would be if you only looked at games played in October.
Year GP G A PTS +/- PIM EV PP SH GW S S%
1995-96 11 11 2 13 1 4 8 3 0 2 23 47.8
1996-97 10 7 5 12 -1 10 3 4 0 0 29 24.1
1997-98 5 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
1998-99 5 2 0 2 -4 4 1 1 0 1 11 18.2
1999-00 12 10 4 14 0 0 6 3 1 2 38 26.3
2000-01 11 5 5 10 -2 8 3 2 0 0 38 13.2
2001-02 11 6 7 13 -1 6 3 3 0 2 31 19.4
2002-03 6 1 0 1 -5 2 1 0 0 0 11 9.1
2003-04 6 1 1 2 1 4 1 0 0 0 9 11.1
2005-06 10 1 0 1 -1 6 0 1 0 0 14 7.1
Total 87 44 24 68 -13 44 26 17 1 7 207 21.256%

Through his first 82 Mr. October was 43-24-67, -11 and had 42 PIMs and 201 shots on goal.

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04-09-2012, 08:54 PM
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vecens24
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I am curious as to why you chose the third leading scorer to illustrate your point.
Just because of the impossibility of knowing how Malkin would be affected by Crosby's return. I thought I explained that in the OP but yeah, that was the reasoning.

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04-09-2012, 10:28 PM
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If I calculated correctly, Forsberg had 126 points in 82 during '03 and '04, while Kariya had 121 points over '97 and '97.

I don't see Crosby rising to the top and becoming dominant. I see him as currently unable to play close to a full regular season and much less valuable than he was a couple years ago. There are many superstars who likely could close to or surpass Crosby's production over 82 games in 3 seasons, if you told them "just play when you feel completely healthy and 100%."

I don't knonw what OP means by "transitional period of weak hockey." If he means the NHL, I would say the competition in the top tier of point leaders is quite weak the past two seasons, but the depth in the NHL only increases over time.

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04-10-2012, 06:04 PM
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Hardyvan123
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Perhaps, but at some point it goes beyond making him look good. During the "streak" in 10/11, we were discussing when Crosby took off as a 130+ point scorer and never looked back.

It was game #27 of the 2009/2010 regular season, versus the Rangers. November 28, 2009 to be exact, and Crosby got 5 points that game. Since then, in 131 games, including playoffs, he has:

85 goals
121 assists
206 points

That is a huge sample size and more than enough to base judgement on. It prorates, over an 82 game season, to:

53 goals
76 assists
129 points.

Obviously the injuries are unfortunate, but I think that history will look at this stretch as one of the greatest feats ever, especially considering:

- His very good defensive play and >55% faceoff percentage
- Him being for the majority of the time on a line with Kunitz and Dupuis, or Cooke and Sullivan.
- The high proportion of even strength goals (don't have exact figures but Pittsburgh's PP wasn't great for the majority of the time)
- The proportion of the team's goals he factored into during this stretch. It was over 45% I believe.



I'd be very curious to see the last time someone has been as dominant for such a long stretch of time. Probably Jagr in the late 90s, but he still mailed it in sometimes and I don't think he had a 130 game stretch like this.
Offensively it's always fun to compare numbers but the intangibles in bold is what makes Sid's run even more special.

Hopefully he can have good health and we can get a better grasp where he stands all time in 15 years or so.

I think that after 12 he will undoubtedly be on everyone's top 100 list and might end up in the single digits when all is said and done.

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