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"Closing Time" - CBJ vs. New York Islanders

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Old
04-08-2012, 11:33 PM
  #176
Mayor Bee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
You crack me up!

Looks like our Saturday Night Fever soundtrack year was Ken Hitchcock in 2008!
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Originally Posted by MattTheMask View Post
And Howson got 65 points this year. Worse than 3 out of the previous 4 years, and the single worst under his 5 year reign, and the worst in the entire NHL for this year. Yeah looks like he is doing a fantastic job
In all seriousness, there are a ton of actual important variables that would have to be considered.

- 2nd-youngest team in the NHL
- Huge number of games lost to injury/suspension, particularly from important players
- Team record for numbers of players in the lineup during the season
- Team record for number of defensemen used during the season
- Excellent in-season moves that were made

If you're looking to make up some more graphs, how about going next to "Points - Antoine Vermette" or "Points - RJ Umberger" or "Points - Kristian Huselius"? Each one of those tells a lot about the story of the season.

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04-08-2012, 11:53 PM
  #177
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
In all seriousness, there are a ton of actual important variables that would have to be considered.

- 2nd-youngest team in the NHL
- Huge number of games lost to injury/suspension, particularly from important players
- Team record for numbers of players in the lineup during the season
- Team record for number of defensemen used during the season
- Excellent in-season moves that were made

If you're looking to make up some more graphs, how about going next to "Points - Antoine Vermette" or "Points - RJ Umberger" or "Points - Kristian Huselius"? Each one of those tells a lot about the story of the season.
OK let's consider those points.

2nd youngest team in the NHL.
This was Scott Howson's decision making. In his fifth year at the helm, this squad could have been young, old, or anything in between. He opted for inexperience on the ice, in net, and behind the bench.

Huge number of games lost to injury/suspension, particularly from important players
A problem created in part by Howson himself. He signed a backup goalie coming off a high ankle sprain. He signed an injury prone Martinek. But has been pointed out, the Blues had more games lost to injury than we did.

Team record for numbers of players in the lineup during the season
This is as much a by product of being out of the playoff race by Thankgiving as it was due to injury. Don't have depth on the NHL squad? Call up the youth and see what they can do.

Team record for number of defensemen used during the season
Too bad it wasn't NHL caliber defensemen. Lebda and Aaron Johnson don't really qualify. Savard BARELY qualifies.

Excellent in-season moves that were made
Howson deserves the credit you're giving him for this.

If you're looking to make up some more graphs, how about going next to "Points - Antoine Vermette" or "Points - RJ Umberger" or "Points - Kristian Huselius"? Each one of those tells a lot about the story of the season
Only if I get to make some more focusing on Goaltending, Penalty Kill, Team Offense, Scott Arniel's coaching record, Goals scored by Pahsson vs. Malhotra, and so on. You can't pin the blame on RJ and Vermette because it was Howson's decision to not only keep them, but to sign them to hefty contract extensions.


Last edited by leesmith: 04-09-2012 at 12:10 AM.
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04-09-2012, 12:20 AM
  #178
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I'm going to re-order these, then address them.

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Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
OK let's consider those points.

Huge number of games lost to injury/suspension, particularly from important players
A problem created in part by Howson himself. He signed a backup goalie coming off a high ankle sprain. He signed an injury prone Martinek. But has been pointed out, the Blues had more games lost to injury than we did.
It's not all Martinek and Dekanich. To compare to St. Louis....

Among skaters, Columbus had 2 players play 80 games this year (Prospal and Nash). St. Louis had 7. Columbus had 5 players play 70 games this year. St. Louis had 12.

Among players who had under 70 games played, the numbers of Blues who could be described as "contributors" were David Perron, Alex Steen, and Andy McDonald...everyone else was depth. The Blue Jackets who could be described as "contributors" were Tyutin, Wisniewski, Carter, Methot, Martinek, and Huselius. I'm not even including others who missed extended time like Letestu.

Huselius has a very short injury history; 2010-11 was the first year in his 10-season (to that point) career of less than 74 games played. Martinek has a Klesla-like injury history; a couple of major, a lot of minor. Methot has no real injury history. Carter had no injury history. Wisniewski is several years removed from anything. Tyutin has no injury history to speak of.

Quote:
2nd youngest team in the NHL.
This was Scott Howson's decision making. In his fifth year at the helm, this squad could have been young, old, or anything in between. He opted for inexperience on the ice, in net, and behind the bench.
See above. Important players get injured, young players get called up.

Quote:
Team record for numbers of players in the lineup during the season
This is as much a by product of being out of the playoff race by Thankgiving as it was due to injury. Don't have depth on the NHL squad? Call up the youth and see what they can do.
After what New Jersey did last year, no one's truly acting out of the playoff race until they're 25 points behind everyone else.

Quote:
Team record for number of defensemen used during the season
Too bad it wasn't NHL caliber defensemen. Lebda and Aaron Johnson don't really qualify. Savard BARELY qualifies.
NHL-caliber defensemen usually are in the NHL, not being old and in the AHL or young and being kept down just for the heck of it.

Quote:
Excellent in-season moves that were made
Howson deserves the credit you're giving him for this. Too bad his offseason moves didn't meet this same level of quality.
Carter was the only piece used to get Johnson and the first-rounder, and Wisniewski cost a whopping 5th-rounder.

Quote:
If you're looking to make up some more graphs, how about going next to "Points - Antoine Vermette" or "Points - RJ Umberger" or "Points - Kristian Huselius"? Each one of those tells a lot about the story of the season
Only if I get to make some more focusing on Goaltending, Penalty Kill, Team Offense, Scott Arniel's coaching record, Goals scored by Pahsson vs. Malhotra, and so on. You can't pin the blame on RJ and Vermette because it was Howson's decision to not only keep them, but to sign them to hefty contract extensions.
Wait, are you suggesting that perhaps we should look at the whole picture? Maybe we need to look not just at Filatov, but at the overall picture of the last five drafts? Maybe we need to look not just at Carter, but at the overall trade history?

That's a novel idea...I welcome a new acolyte.

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04-09-2012, 12:38 AM
  #179
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Y'know, I'm tempted to return to putting public votes of confidence in Howson out of the vain hope that it'll SHUT YOU PEOPLE UP ALREADY.

Sure, I'd be arguing a bit of a lie (I still like much of what he's achieved, but am no longer convinced he'll get us to the next level), but at least I wouldn't find myself implicitly included in some of these idiotic assertions.

WE WON THE DAMN GAME. GET OVER IT. Sheesh!

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04-09-2012, 03:43 AM
  #180
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Carter was the only piece used to get Johnson and the first-rounder, and Wisniewski cost a whopping 5th-rounder.

I have to call you out here because that's a bit of a misrepresentation. It only cost us a 5th rounder to negotiate; to sign Wiz cost an awful lot more, and there was a fair amount of criticism for the richness of his actual contract.

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That's a novel idea...I welcome a new acolyte.
If Patrick is the new Priest, then I can support Howson for another season. The in-season moves (Nikitin, Letestu, Arniel, JMFJ/Carter, Prospal) have been strong. If Howson has been hamstrung by Priest, I'm not willing to blame that on the GM, because he does seem both intelligent and straightforward.

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04-09-2012, 07:03 AM
  #181
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I just figured there was a "We're Sorry" video because there usually is one when they don't make the post season, I wasn't at the game, so I just assumed there was one. The "Letter" at midseason must have been it.

And Bee, I don't think Brass had played a regular season game until 07-08, which would have been the season after MacLean.

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04-09-2012, 07:19 AM
  #182
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Why are we still talking Howson? In this thread no less?

He's done a good job of assisting us in regressing the last 3 seasons. Since most of our defense is new from the playoff team, the assertion that the defense needed a make over proved accurate. For that reason alone Howson needs to get the boot.

However, he's not going to. At least for a while. Move on already. I despise him with a fiery passion that can not be described (professionally mostly). However, my feelings aren't taken into consideration at the higher levels of management. Nothing to do this off season but see what is in the cards.

MB, I generally enjoy your posting. However, the defense of Howson isn't doing you and your posting ability justice. Even if you can create excuses, or as you would view them, reasons - they really aren't very good reasons. Howson, at some point, will get "vindication". At some point the farm system will save him. Not because he was a good GM, it's just that sooner or later the law of averages will come into your favor. The question is when. Next year, three years, five years? 10?

At any rate, this game isn't going to be deleted from my DVR for a while. It was the highlight of the season.


Last edited by blahblah: 04-09-2012 at 08:42 AM.
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04-09-2012, 08:31 AM
  #183
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I want Howson and Richards fired. What I want doesn't matter, one or both may be back next season. I, along with all others who want change, will have to deal with it. I do not agree with those who think signs and petitions will make a bit of difference in these decisions.

Nice win, Saturday, wish there were more like that, this year, and I hope there are more like it, next year, no matter who is GM, behind the bench, or on the ice.

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04-09-2012, 10:30 AM
  #184
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I do not agree with those who think signs and petitions will make a bit of difference in these decisions.

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04-09-2012, 10:48 AM
  #185
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I have to call you out here because that's a bit of a misrepresentation. It only cost us a 5th rounder to negotiate; to sign Wiz cost an awful lot more, and there was a fair amount of criticism for the richness of his actual contract.
It was a 7th to negotiate, which bumped to a 5th when he signed. If he hadn't signed, the 7th-rounder would have been burned with nothing to show for it.

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MB, I generally enjoy your posting. However, the defense of Howson isn't doing you and your posting ability justice. Even if you can create excuses, or as you would view them, reasons - they really aren't very good reasons. Howson, at some point, will get "vindication". At some point the farm system will save him. Not because he was a good GM, it's just that sooner or later the law of averages will come into your favor. The question is when. Next year, three years, five years? 10?
Laws of averages generally don't apply in sports. We've seen this in the last 50 years of sports in Ohio.

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And Bee, I don't think Brass had played a regular season game until 07-08, which would have been the season after MacLean.
True, but he was in the system and ready to at least crack the NHL lineup.

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04-09-2012, 12:07 PM
  #186
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Laws of averages generally don't apply in sports. We've seen this in the last 50 years of sports in Ohio.
Indians, Bengals, and Reds, along with the CBJ for a single season, have all had their moments. The Cavs had a strong run. Actually a couple. If you are going back 50 years, you can include the Browns in there as well. Outside of the Big Red machine, the Reds even had another championship in that time span.

I fail to see where you are coming from with this statement.

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04-09-2012, 12:52 PM
  #187
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So - how about that last game, huh?

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04-09-2012, 01:01 PM
  #188
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So - how about that last game, huh?
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At any rate, this game isn't going to be deleted from my DVR for a while. It was the highlight of the season.
What more needs said?

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04-09-2012, 01:23 PM
  #189
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Worthless fact of the year: Vinny Prospal scored both the first and last CBJ goals this season....

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04-09-2012, 01:25 PM
  #190
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Worthless fact of the year: Vinny Prospal scored both the first and last CBJ goals this season....
He is the alpha and the omega.

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04-09-2012, 01:46 PM
  #191
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What more needs said?
Was wondering the same thing. Let's see.

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04-09-2012, 02:12 PM
  #192
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Was wondering the same thing. Let's see.
Nobody who drives their company from the middle of the pack to the very bottom deserves to keep their job. Nothing MB throws out there is going to convince me otherwise. So MB and I are just gonna hafta agree to disagree on this one. Otherwise, let's discuss this in a separate thread - which, conveniently, I just made! LOL

Yeah, great game! Despite Howson needing to go, I stand by my 10 silver linings.


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04-10-2012, 09:51 AM
  #193
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MB, I generally enjoy your posting. However, the defense of Howson isn't doing you and your posting ability justice. Even if you can create excuses, or as you would view them, reasons - they really aren't very good reasons. Howson, at some point, will get "vindication". At some point the farm system will save him. Not because he was a good GM, it's just that sooner or later the law of averages will come into your favor. The question is when. Next year, three years, five years? 10?

At any rate, this game isn't going to be deleted from my DVR for a while. It was the highlight of the season.
The law of averages or law of large numbers only applies to random events (like the spin of the roulette wheel, or the flip of a coin). There is nothing randome about winning or losing in the NHL. When you are a bad team/organization, like we were when Howson took over, you have a disadvantage when trying to improve, the obstacles are substantial. Draft picks help, but there is so much more to overcome, FA bias, the challenge of attracting a good coach (Boucher), to name 2. I'm not defending Howson, but lets be honest, his job is like playing seven card stud with only 5 or 6 cards in your hand.

I'm fine with a new GM, but not an experimental one. If we can't land a proven winner at GM, then why roll the dice again on a new guy?

And yes, I'm happy to say we've watched the game twice, front to back, and I'm not planning on deleting it anytime soon.

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04-10-2012, 10:17 AM
  #194
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The law of averages or law of large numbers only applies to random events (like the spin of the roulette wheel, or the flip of a coin). There is nothing randome about winning or losing in the NHL.
Most team will eventually make the playoffs at some point. We did it once, we will do it again. Eventually a larger percentage of his trades, draft picks, FA signings and such will exceed his normal averages and the stars will align (no major injuries, for example) and we will have a good run. It may not last more than a season or two, it may not even result in a playoff win. But it will happen. At that point, all the Howson neophytes will rise up and proclaim vindication.

That, sir, is the law of averages. Things that normally work against us will work in our favor for a period of time.

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04-10-2012, 10:59 AM
  #195
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Most team will eventually make the playoffs at some point. We did it once, we will do it again. Eventually a larger percentage of his trades, draft picks, FA signings and such will exceed his normal averages and the stars will align (no major injuries, for example) and we will have a good run. It may not last more than a season or two, it may not even result in a playoff win. But it will happen. At that point, all the Howson neophytes will rise up and proclaim vindication.

That, sir, is the law of averages. Things that normally work against us will work in our favor for a period of time.

No its really not. The law of averages/large numbers only applies to random events. Grab a stats book, or google it. I make a living in predictive modeling, believe me, you can't say the law of averages applies to sports.

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04-10-2012, 11:40 AM
  #196
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I stand by what blahblah and leesmith are saying. Sure it isnt the law of averages at work, but I will readily attribute a single postseason appearance in the near future or a very good draft pick to luck over Howson's machinations.

If his defense thus far is bad luck, his reasoning for a good season must be good luck.

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04-10-2012, 12:48 PM
  #197
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No its really not. The law of averages/large numbers only applies to random events. Grab a stats book, or google it. I make a living in predictive modeling, believe me, you can't say the law of averages applies to sports.
Oh boy. This is really a conversation?

Averages are everywhere in sports. One year a player will score 35 goals because he had a shooting percentage of 18.2%, from his career average of 9.8%. The reality is your next year your average is likely to shift more back to 9.8% than 18.2% and he will return to closer to 20 goals - unless he has made a large step in his development. That 15 goal difference can be the difference from a -10 goal differential, borderline playoff team, to a 7th seed. The resulting "normalization" swings you back the other direction without a countering influence the next season.

I use this simple method for predicting our falls when we are in a winning streak. It's easy to look over the data and say we aren't going to continue to win this way. It's also easy to determine if the streak is sustainable. I've done it numerous times and it, predictably, comes to pass.

I am not really sure what you are trying to prove here. Things like this and other concepts like injury minutes are easy to see how changes in either direction from normal can have an immediate and, sometimes, dramatic effect on your team.

Sooner or later a greater majority of each variable will swing in your favor, creating the illusion of improvement. In the case of rookies developing, that can have a lasting effect. Things like spikes in shooting percentage are far less impacting over time and will be weighted less. Those changes tend to normalize far more quickly.

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04-10-2012, 01:06 PM
  #198
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Is there a technical Law Of Averages? I've always understood it to be a colloquial lay term.

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04-10-2012, 01:19 PM
  #199
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Is there a technical Law Of Averages? I've always understood it to be a colloquial lay term.
Yes. Nordique understands this, blahblah does not.

Edit: perhaps this will help -

The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event will "even out" within a small sample. As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur. Typical applications of the law also generally assume no bias in the underlying probability distribution, which is frequently at odds with the empirical evidence.


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04-10-2012, 01:26 PM
  #200
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Oh boy. This is really a conversation?

Averages are everywhere in sports. One year a player will score 35 goals because he had a shooting percentage of 18.2%, from his career average of 9.8%. The reality is your next year your average is likely to shift more back to 9.8% than 18.2% and he will return to closer to 20 goals - unless he has made a large step in his development. That 15 goal difference can be the difference from a -10 goal differential, borderline playoff team, to a 7th seed. The resulting "normalization" swings you back the other direction without a countering influence the next season.

I use this simple method for predicting our falls when we are in a winning streak. It's easy to look over the data and say we aren't going to continue to win this way. It's also easy to determine if the streak is sustainable. I've done it numerous times and it, predictably, comes to pass.

I am not really sure what you are trying to prove here. Things like this and other concepts like injury minutes are easy to see how changes in either direction from normal can have an immediate and, sometimes, dramatic effect on your team.

Sooner or later a greater majority of each variable will swing in your favor, creating the illusion of improvement. In the case of rookies developing, that can have a lasting effect. Things like spikes in shooting percentage are far less impacting over time and will be weighted less. Those changes tend to normalize far more quickly.
That's not really the law of averages; Bill James referred to this particular thing as the whirlpool effect (which dealt with regression to the average), with a major prong of it being the plexiglass principle (resistance is more powerful than momentum).

I, too, am someone with a good track record of benefiting from accurately predicting normalization. Most of it is in fantasy baseball, but I did manage to barely win a hockey league a couple years ago with Mikael Samuelsson on the basis of shooting percentage normalization (and then some).

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