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"Closing Time" - CBJ vs. New York Islanders

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Old
04-10-2012, 01:27 PM
  #201
blahblah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pete goegan View Post
Yes. Nordique understands this, blahblah does not.
Quote:
The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event will "even out" within a small sample.

As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur.[1] Typical applications of the law also generally assume no bias in the underlying probability distribution, which is frequently at odds with the empirical evidence.[citation n
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

I am quite aware of what I am arguing. The reality is the "Law" is like most law's that govern us. Meaning rather poor.

Since I actually back up most of my data when discussing averages and these concepts, it is more than simple "wishful thinking" as quoted above.

When Nordique forms a coherent argument against what I am saying, I will give credence. Up until now, it's more of "Uh un".

The reality is with a large enough sample size if the odds are 50% that something will occur, after a while it will be statistically around 50%. It might be 50.8%, 49.7%. The larger the same, the closer it will be to 50% - without an outside influence. However, there will be peaks and valleys within that 50%. Those peaks may reach 100%. Those are the peaks in which I am talking about when saying that, eventually, those peaks will benefit us. Sooner or later, the majority of variables will move into our favor. For a time.

So what am I missing here? Is it that you don't agree? If so, with what?


Last edited by blahblah: 04-10-2012 at 01:41 PM.
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Old
04-10-2012, 01:30 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by blahblah View Post

I am quite aware of what I am arguing.
Have any of you stopped to wonder why, though?

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04-10-2012, 01:44 PM
  #203
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It's clear this board has run out of things to argue about.

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04-10-2012, 01:44 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by Double-Shift Lassť View Post
Have any of you stopped to wonder why, though?
Yes, that was apparent in a previous post. I wasn't the one that decided to go all academia. Sadly, I got annoyed by it.

My suspicion is that this is like arguing with your wife, husband, or whoever. It's rarely about the actual topic at hand.

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04-10-2012, 02:15 PM
  #205
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It's clear this board has run out of things to argue about.
Has not.

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04-10-2012, 02:19 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
My suspicion is that this is like arguing with your wife, husband, or whoever. It's rarely about the actual topic at hand.
No, it's usually to provoke them just enough to achieve maximum freakiness during the making up part.

If the two of us ever stop arguing, I'm running like hell.

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04-10-2012, 02:39 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by Columbus Mike View Post
It's clear this board has run out of things to argue about.
Probably, but as long as real work is boring, there will be arguing on internet message boards.

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04-10-2012, 02:45 PM
  #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Columbus Mike View Post
It's clear this board has run out of things to argue about.
Oh, don't be so cynical. I'm sure we can find many, many more things to argue about, given enough time and patience.

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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
No, it's usually to provoke them just enough to achieve maximum freakiness during the making up part.

If the two of us ever stop arguing, I'm running like hell.
Mutual nonaggression treaties are the way to go. Makes it much easier.

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04-10-2012, 02:59 PM
  #209
Mayor Bee
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Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
Mutual nonaggression treaties are the way to go. Makes it much easier.
We all know how those end up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad

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04-10-2012, 03:25 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
Mutual nonaggression treaties are the way to go. Makes it much easier.
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Viqsi and I have been under a mutually beneficial one for quite a while. Seems to have worked out great. Oh I guard my borders still, but it's more out of habit than anything else... Thus far she's been quite honorable.... :p

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04-10-2012, 04:12 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Columbus Mike View Post
It's clear this board has run out of things to argue about.
It's gonna be ANOTHER long off-season!

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04-10-2012, 04:13 PM
  #212
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
No, it's usually to provoke them just enough to achieve maximum freakiness during the making up part.

If the two of us ever stop arguing, I'm running like hell.
I tell ya what's been weird. You and I are rarely on totally opposite sides of a discussion. Thank you Scott Howson for bringing some variety to my life!

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04-10-2012, 04:32 PM
  #213
Mayor Bee
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Originally Posted by blahblah View Post
Viqsi and I have been under a mutually beneficial one for quite a while. Seems to have worked out great. Oh I guard my borders still, but it's more out of habit than anything else... Thus far she's been quite honorable.... :p
Yes, but this is me we're talking about. Barring the chance to specifically target opposing people, I'd resort to thinly-veiled shots at anyone who espouses said viewpoints.

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04-10-2012, 04:44 PM
  #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Yes, but this is me we're talking about. Barring the chance to specifically target opposing people, I'd resort to thinly-veiled shots at anyone who espouses said viewpoints.
I'm sorry, are you implying something about my posting strategy?

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