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Speculation: Grigorenko to Edmonton. Is that even fair?

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Old
04-08-2012, 03:58 PM
  #176
Mr Forever
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
That's a strategy that may work for other teams, but how is it working for the Oilers? You can talk about Klefbom, Musil, Marincin and Gernat all you want but for now, they're only prospects, so the jury's out.

Going back to 2002, Edmonton has only developped three legitimate NHL defensemen from any round - Peckham, Petry and Greene. Syvret and Chorney are there, but look like AHL tweeners at best. And none of the aforementioned 3 guys are approaching #1 D status any time soon.

So why say "we can always develop a defenseman from the later rounds" if your organization hasn't proved it can do that competently yet? Why not just take the shortcut of drafting the best one in the entire draft, which the Oilers are in a prime position to do?
Taking a short cut is never the answer.

The Oilers have weaknesses on D and up front. If they were stacked down the middle, I would agree with you, but they're not. RNH, Horcoff, Belanger and Lander? That's pathetic. Any of those guys past RNH dries up the wingers to a point where this no scoring depth.

Saying Murray will automatically be a top D-man is absurd. He is just as big of a risk and a project as Klefbom is. Murray still has to be developed, he is not an NHL player. There is absolutely no way he steps in and becomes a top pairing guy within the next couple of years.

The only short term fix that is remotely feasible is trading the pick away along with someone like Paajarvi or Gagner to acquire an established, young top pairing guy, but the odds of that happening are almost as low as Weber and Suter signing in Edmonton this July.

Reality is, we're going to have to be patient. We have the best young core of D in the system now that we have ever had. Greene, Peckham and whoever else Lowe and Pendergast drafted hale in comparison to Marincin, Klefbom and Musil. We have a new scouting staff now and comparing the picks they have made to the failures of our past staff is unfair. Assembling a core Vancouver style is the best option for this team. Smid, Schultz and Petry are established top 4 guys. Add in two more guys, Musil, Gernat Klefbom or Marincin and a FA signing or trade and we have a Vancouver-esque D-core.

Give this group time, take the BPA, sign some depth D and roll with it.

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04-08-2012, 04:24 PM
  #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
That's a strategy that may work for other teams, but how is it working for the Oilers? You can talk about Klefbom, Musil, Marincin and Gernat all you want but for now, they're only prospects, so the jury's out.

Going back to 2002, Edmonton has only developped three legitimate NHL defensemen from any round - Peckham, Petry and Greene. Syvret and Chorney are there, but look like AHL tweeners at best. And none of the aforementioned 3 guys are approaching #1 D status any time soon.

So why say "we can always develop a defenseman from the later rounds" if your organization hasn't proved it can do that competently yet? Why not just take the shortcut of drafting the best one in the entire draft, which the Oilers are in a prime position to do?
During that time, they've developed a number of defenders, with no true #1's. (e.g. Gilbert, Smid, MA Bergeron.) The drafting in the early 2000's was suspect, though, so not much of a surprise.

Here are all of the Oilers draft picks, listed as defenders, since 2000.
2011 Oscar Klefbom
2011 David Musil
2011 Dillon Simpson
2011 Martin Gernat
2010 Martin Marincin
2010 Jeremie Blain
2010 Brandon Davidson
2009 Troy Hesketh
2009 Kyle Bigos
2008 Johan Motin
2008 Jordan Bendfeld
2007 Alex Plante
----
2006 Jeff Petry
2006 Theo Peckham
2006 Cody Wild
2005 Taylor Chorney
2005 Danny Syvret
2004 Roman Teslyuk
2004 Bryan Young
2004 Max Gordichuk
2003 Mathieu Roy
2003 Josef Hrabal
2002 Matt Greene
2002 Ivan Koltsov
2002 Mikko Luoma
2001 Doug Lynch
2001 Kenny Smith
2001 Mikael Svensk
2001 Kari Haakana
2001 Ales Pisa
2000 Alexander Ljubimov
2000 Paul Flache
2000 Jason Platt

They've taken 32 picks, and 12 have been since 2007. Since 2007, the median pick taken for a defender has been 87, compared to 137 for a defender prior. They seem to be going with the "draft defenders in the second and third rounds" strategy, and we're just starting to see the results of those picks. It's interesting to see the split - I wouldn't be shocked to see Edmonton develop one of the current defenders into a #1. Given the list, I'd bet it'd be Klefbom, but Gernat would be the darkhorse pick. Impressive stats and play for his age.

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04-08-2012, 04:24 PM
  #178
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So are you guys going to take MacKinnon next year?

You would have RNH, Hall, Eberle, Grigorenko, MacKinnon. Think of all those goals!

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04-08-2012, 04:28 PM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tedenby21 View Post
So are you guys going to take MacKinnon next year?

You would have RNH, Hall, Eberle, Grigorenko, MacKinnon. Think of all those goals!
If he's the best player available, and falls to where ever Edmonton picks, I'd bet that they take him, too.

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04-08-2012, 04:32 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
That's a strategy that may work for other teams, but how is it working for the Oilers? You can talk about Klefbom, Musil, Marincin and Gernat all you want but for now, they're only prospects, so the jury's out.

Going back to 2002, Edmonton has only developped three legitimate NHL defensemen from any round - Peckham, Petry and Greene. Syvret and Chorney are there, but look like AHL tweeners at best. And none of the aforementioned 3 guys are approaching #1 D status any time soon.

So why say "we can always develop a defenseman from the later rounds" if your organization hasn't proved it can do that competently yet? Why not just take the shortcut of drafting the best one in the entire draft, which the Oilers are in a prime position to do?
You do realize that Edmonton didnt even have a farm team before last season right? The previous ownership group were idiots not to acquire one so that the Oilers prospects could be properly developed. Now the OKC Barons are the best in the western conference. Couple that with a new scouting staff and you're comparing apples and oranges

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04-08-2012, 04:34 PM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tedenby21 View Post
So are you guys going to take MacKinnon next year?

You would have RNH, Hall, Eberle, Grigorenko, MacKinnon. Think of all those goals!
For both Edmonton and the opposing team!

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04-08-2012, 04:49 PM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrForever View Post
Taking a short cut is never the answer.

The Oilers have weaknesses on D and up front. If they were stacked down the middle, I would agree with you, but they're not. RNH, Horcoff, Belanger and Lander? That's pathetic. Any of those guys past RNH dries up the wingers to a point where this no scoring depth.

Saying Murray will automatically be a top D-man is absurd. He is just as big of a risk and a project as Klefbom is. Murray still has to be developed, he is not an NHL player. There is absolutely no way he steps in and becomes a top pairing guy within the next couple of years.

The only short term fix that is remotely feasible is trading the pick away along with someone like Paajarvi or Gagner to acquire an established, young top pairing guy, but the odds of that happening are almost as low as Weber and Suter signing in Edmonton this July.

Reality is, we're going to have to be patient. We have the best young core of D in the system now that we have ever had. Greene, Peckham and whoever else Lowe and Pendergast drafted hale in comparison to Marincin, Klefbom and Musil. We have a new scouting staff now and comparing the picks they have made to the failures of our past staff is unfair. Assembling a core Vancouver style is the best option for this team. Smid, Schultz and Petry are established top 4 guys. Add in two more guys, Musil, Gernat Klefbom or Marincin and a FA signing or trade and we have a Vancouver-esque D-core.

Give this group time, take the BPA, sign some depth D and roll with it.
what about Gagner?

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04-08-2012, 04:51 PM
  #183
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Don't worry we'll still suck.

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04-08-2012, 04:56 PM
  #184
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Not saying we shouldn't pick a dman but man, after watching the Oilers play the last couple years, I think they need more scoring depth just as much as help on defence. We have 3 players that score all the goals. That's it.

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04-08-2012, 05:15 PM
  #185
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The reality is the Oilers have been drafting BPA for a while now and it seems to be working out fine, otherwise we would have drafted Larssen last year instead of RNH. This year we have to wait to see what CLB drafts and take what ever is left.

my draft order for this years draft from an oiler standpoint goes like this;

1) Yakupov
2) Grigorenko
3) Murray
4) Dumba

If everything goes right we get Grigorenko, but if someone leap frogs them at the lottery then we draft Murray or Dumba. There is no way that CLB passes on both Russians, but my gut tells me they take the center after seeing what happened in the Ovechkin/Malkin draft. Ovechkin was a slam dunk for the first overall, but right now most people would rather have Malkin.

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04-08-2012, 05:17 PM
  #186
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Edmonton deserves Grigorenko for having to endure **** hockey since 2007.

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Old
04-08-2012, 05:17 PM
  #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MooseheadCanadiens View Post
what about Gagner?
Gagner does nothing to make the team better

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04-08-2012, 05:24 PM
  #188
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Hall - RNH - Eberle
Hemsky - Gagner - Grigorenko

....omg

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04-08-2012, 05:33 PM
  #189
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Originally Posted by birddog View Post
Sad thing is if they do draft him all we'll see are Gagner for your top pairing Dman for the next 3 years. There should be a rule against that.

Haha, this coming coming from a leafs fan. Its only fans of other teams that really want us to draft a D with our first, so the top flight centres will fall to them.

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04-08-2012, 05:34 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by I Hate Jay Feaster View Post
Edmonton deserves Grigorenko for having to endure **** hockey since 2007.

This is true

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04-08-2012, 05:37 PM
  #191
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Now I want to draft Grikorenko, JUST TO PISS EVERYONE OFF!

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04-08-2012, 05:40 PM
  #192
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canucksPK View Post
Hall - RNH - Eberle
Hemsky - Gagner - Grigorenko

....omg
I'd rather move Gagner to the wing, but yea, that should be a good top 6. Now we just have to figure out the rest of the roster...

Jones / Horc should be great 3rd liners. Not sure about Smyth anymore... Belanger is a solid 4th line center. Petry/Smid are both top 4 guys, but Whitney is a question mark at this point due to his injuries. Schultz should be a top 4 guy too. There's nobody that can really be a bottom pairing defenseman - Potter/Sutton might be okay but I wouldn't be confident with them and the rest of the guys are either gonna be gone or are too young to make an impact. At goalie we have Dubnyk but who knows if he will be a #1..and Khabi is at the end of his career.

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04-08-2012, 05:40 PM
  #193
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canucksPK View Post
Hall - RNH - Eberle
Hemsky - Gagner - Grigorenko

....omg
Those lines are too soft. Get rid of Gagner and pencil in Hartkianen.

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04-08-2012, 05:44 PM
  #194
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The only people to who this is unfair to is the Edmonton picks themselves, cause they now have to play in Edmonton.

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04-08-2012, 05:45 PM
  #195
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Originally Posted by Braden Carlzner View Post
For both Edmonton and the opposing team!




don't care to go find the bowing smiley, but insert here.

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04-08-2012, 05:45 PM
  #196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by canucksPK View Post
Hall - RNH - Eberle
Hemsky - Gagner - Grigorenko

....omg
Grigs game is best suited for a center.

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04-08-2012, 05:48 PM
  #197
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I wonder what kind of deal Hall will sign.

He has been good for sure.. but it is not like he has lite the world on fire and been as good as guys like Tavares, when they came in.

Could the Oilers get him signed long term for hell maybe even under 5?

and yes Oilers need D bad... Maybe trade this years pick for some solid D-man?
Are you sure?
Tavares in his 2nd year had 29G 67 pts in 79 games.
Hall in his 2nd year had 27G 53 pts in in 61 games.

I don't see too much of a difference there.

I expect somewhere between $5.5 mil and $6 mil/yr for Hall similar to Tavares' contract but with the rising cap, he'll probably get a bit more.

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04-08-2012, 07:58 PM
  #198
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Originally Posted by CupofOil View Post
Are you sure?
Tavares in his 2nd year had 29G 67 pts in 79 games.
Hall in his 2nd year had 27G 53 pts in in 61 games.

I don't see too much of a difference there.

I expect somewhere between $5.5 mil and $6 mil/yr for Hall similar to Tavares' contract but with the rising cap, he'll probably get a bit more.
The huge issue here is Tavares for 79-82 games vs. Hall playing at a 60-65 game clip. RNH can't stay healthy either. The comparable talents of Seguin/Hall makes you wanna have the guy who actually plays his way through a season. Their first seasons are hardly comparable as Seguin as a healthy scratch half the year doesn't compare with Hall's first line minutes. Hopefully RNH can stay healthy because he's so fun to watch, but he's also so fragile and looks noticeably like a boy. This is why I think Forsberg is the dark horse for Edmontons pick. Adding a little size and skill wouldn't hurt, although I'm sure Oilers fans are hesitant after the Paajarvi ordeal. I'm also disappointed that Oil fans are righting MPS off, I think he still has a future in the top 6.

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04-08-2012, 08:14 PM
  #199
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The huge issue here is Tavares for 79-82 games vs. Hall playing at a 60-65 game clip. RNH can't stay healthy either. The comparable talents of Seguin/Hall makes you wanna have the guy who actually plays his way through a season. Their first seasons are hardly comparable as Seguin as a healthy scratch half the year doesn't compare with Hall's first line minutes. Hopefully RNH can stay healthy because he's so fun to watch, but he's also so fragile and looks noticeably like a boy. This is why I think Forsberg is the dark horse for Edmontons pick. Adding a little size and skill wouldn't hurt, although I'm sure Oilers fans are hesitant after the Paajarvi ordeal. I'm also disappointed that Oil fans are righting MPS off, I think he still has a future in the top 6.
No we aren't. Renney just misused him and screwed up his development a bit. He's been playing very well in the AHL and when he was called up he played a lot better. He'll never be that physical but he has learned to use his size and muck it up in the dirty areas more instead of being a purely perimeter player. He will probably take that #2 LW spot some time in the future.

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04-08-2012, 08:51 PM
  #200
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The Oilers are also getting:

2013-Nathan Mackinnon
2014-Jake Virtanen
2015-...
...

Until they realize they need to do something about their Defense.

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