HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Prospects
Notices

Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

Speculation: Grigorenko to Edmonton. Is that even fair?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-08-2012, 09:10 PM
  #201
xlnc66
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: B.C.
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,845
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik Estrada View Post
The Oilers are also getting:

2013-Nathan Mackinnon
2014-Jake Virtanen
2015-...
...

Until they realize they need to do something about their Defense.
You do realize that the majority of impact D-men currently in the league are not top 10 picks. Guys like Keith, Weber, Chara, Edler, Boyle, Karlsson, Seabrook, Letang were all mid 1st round, or 2nd/3rd round picks or beyond.

xlnc66 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 09:12 PM
  #202
victor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,797
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by xlnc66 View Post
You do realize that the majority of impact D-men currently in the league are not top 10 picks. Guys like Keith, Weber, Chara, Edler, Boyle, Karlsson, Seabrook, Letang were all mid 1st round, or 2nd/3rd round picks or beyond.
What are these "fact" things you keep using. Everyone knows that you can prove anything even remotely true with these "facts"


victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 09:40 PM
  #203
5RingsAndABeer
John MacKinnon Fan
 
5RingsAndABeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 10,699
vCash: 1220
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erik Estrada View Post
The Oilers are also getting:

2013-Nathan Mackinnon
2014-Jake Virtanen
2015-...
...

Until they realize they need to do something about their Defense.
Guess how many teams finished worse than Edmonton in GA this season.

Answer: 7, including a playoff team.

It's such a typical board mentality that when people say the same thing over and over again it becomes true. Try using facts instead of hearsay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post




don't care to go find the bowing smiley, but insert here.
Hey bud, guess where how Anaheim's +/- ended up relative to Edmonton's this season.

Answer: Dead even.

5RingsAndABeer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:01 PM
  #204
hototogisu
Global Moderator
Poked the bear!!!!!
 
hototogisu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Montreal, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,935
vCash: 500
Awards:
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrForever View Post
Taking a short cut is never the answer.
When I said "shortcut", I didn't mean that drafting a defenseman this year would be a shortcut to success for the Oilers. I just meant that instead of jumping through the hoops previously described (scouring the later rounds for a potential #1-2 defenseman, developping him slowly, being patient, hoping he pans out), you could cut to the chase and take the best defenseman on the board, no questions asked.

Quote:
The Oilers have weaknesses on D and up front. If they were stacked down the middle, I would agree with you, but they're not. RNH, Horcoff, Belanger and Lander? That's pathetic. Any of those guys past RNH dries up the wingers to a point where this no scoring depth.
If we're comparing centre vs. defense depth purely on an NHL level, your defense is in much worse shape in my opinion.

Quote:
Saying Murray will automatically be a top D-man is absurd. He is just as big of a risk and a project as Klefbom is. Murray still has to be developed, he is not an NHL player. There is absolutely no way he steps in and becomes a top pairing guy within the next couple of years.
I didn't say anyone would automatically be a top D-man, but I think your chances are much better at drafting the top-ranked D-man and having him fulfill his potential than drafting a guy in the later rounds and hoping he turns into a star. And I think it's a little disingenuous to say that Murray is as big of a risk and a project as Klefbom is. Could Klefbom turn out better than Murray? Sure, anything can happen. But there's also a reason why one is battling for top-three in his draft year and the other was picked at #19.

Quote:
The only short term fix that is remotely feasible is trading the pick away along with someone like Paajarvi or Gagner to acquire an established, young top pairing guy, but the odds of that happening are almost as low as Weber and Suter signing in Edmonton this July.
True but again, I wasn't suggesting drafting a D-man would be a "quick fix" as I explained above.

Quote:
Reality is, we're going to have to be patient. We have the best young core of D in the system now that we have ever had. Greene, Peckham and whoever else Lowe and Pendergast drafted hale in comparison to Marincin, Klefbom and Musil. We have a new scouting staff now and comparing the picks they have made to the failures of our past staff is unfair. Assembling a core Vancouver style is the best option for this team. Smid, Schultz and Petry are established top 4 guys. Add in two more guys, Musil, Gernat Klefbom or Marincin and a FA signing or trade and we have a Vancouver-esque D-core.

Give this group time, take the BPA, sign some depth D and roll with it.
That group of D prospects does look nice, but not one of them has played an NHL game, and may never for all we know. Edmonton has young, NHL-proven talent up front, but can't say the same for their back-end. That's what it comes down to for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
During that time, they've developed a number of defenders, with no true #1's. (e.g. Gilbert, Smid, MA Bergeron.) The drafting in the early 2000's was suspect, though, so not much of a surprise.

Here are all of the Oilers draft picks, listed as defenders, since 2000.

[...]

They've taken 32 picks, and 12 have been since 2007. Since 2007, the median pick taken for a defender has been 87, compared to 137 for a defender prior. They seem to be going with the "draft defenders in the second and third rounds" strategy, and we're just starting to see the results of those picks. It's interesting to see the split - I wouldn't be shocked to see Edmonton develop one of the current defenders into a #1. Given the list, I'd bet it'd be Klefbom, but Gernat would be the darkhorse pick. Impressive stats and play for his age.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homesick View Post
You do realize that Edmonton didnt even have a farm team before last season right? The previous ownership group were idiots not to acquire one so that the Oilers prospects could be properly developed. Now the OKC Barons are the best in the western conference. Couple that with a new scouting staff and you're comparing apples and oranges
I'll concede that maybe it is too soon to tell, but all you're saying is that you're hoping it'll work out with the new ownership group. I'm saying the proof is in the pudding - 10 years of drafting with no real results, and a chance to better those results greatly this year. And even if you do pick a defenseman this year and all your D prospects do turn out as you hoped, it's not like anyone has ever accused a winning team of having too much defense.

hototogisu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:12 PM
  #205
victor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,797
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
I'll concede that maybe it is too soon to tell, but all you're saying is that you're hoping it'll work out with the new ownership group. I'm saying the proof is in the pudding - 10 years of drafting with no real results, and a chance to better those results greatly this year. And even if you do pick a defenseman this year and all your D prospects do turn out as you hoped, it's not like anyone has ever accused a winning team of having too much defense.
Problem is, it's not 10 years without results. Jeff Petry lead Edmonton in minutes played and points for a defender, and he's 24. His partner is 25, and came out +4 playing first pairing minutes(Smid.)

They've clearly drafted better - they're best prospect is Klefbom, who was a WJC all star this year, and plays minutes in the SEL. I've only seen him at the WJC, but from all I've heard, he seems like a blue chip prospect.

Gernat, Musil, Marincin look like they're developing well. Bigos, Blain, Davidson? Teubert? Even Plante, who's now an AHL all-star team player. That, combined with the likelihood that Edmonton will take 2-3 defenders in the upcoming draft, and it adds up to drafting the best player available.

victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:22 PM
  #206
xlnc66
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: B.C.
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,845
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
Problem is, it's not 10 years without results. Jeff Petry lead Edmonton in minutes played and points for a defender, and he's 24. His partner is 25, and came out +4 playing first pairing minutes(Smid.)

They've clearly drafted better - they're best prospect is Klefbom, who was a WJC all star this year, and plays minutes in the SEL. I've only seen him at the WJC, but from all I've heard, he seems like a blue chip prospect.

Gernat, Musil, Marincin look like they're developing well. Bigos, Blain, Davidson? Teubert? Even Plante, who's now an AHL all-star team player. That, combined with the likelihood that Edmonton will take 2-3 defenders in the upcoming draft, and it adds up to drafting the best player available.
A lot of people fail to realize that the Oilers scouting was a complete gong show until Stu Macgregor arrived and his first draft with the team wasn't until 2008, the year they took Eberle 22nd overall.

xlnc66 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:27 PM
  #207
victor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,797
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by xlnc66 View Post
A lot of people fail to realize that the Oilers scouting was a complete gong show until Stu Macgregor arrived and his first draft with the team wasn't until 2008, the year they took Eberle 22nd overall.
They picked Dubnyk in 2004, Cogliano in 2005, Petry and Peckham in 2006, and Gagner in 2007. Not great, but not really a gong show.

victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:27 PM
  #208
hototogisu
Global Moderator
Poked the bear!!!!!
 
hototogisu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Montreal, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,935
vCash: 500
Awards:
Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
Problem is, it's not 10 years without results. Jeff Petry lead Edmonton in minutes played and points for a defender, and he's 24. His partner is 25, and came out +4 playing first pairing minutes(Smid.)
I already acknowledged Petry in my post before, but he hasn't even played a season and a half in the NHL. He looks like a nice player, but he's not what I would call a slam dunk either. Smid we can add too (although he wasn't drafted by the Oilers, they played a big role in his development). But still...2 guys in 10 years is supposed to change my mind?

Quote:
They've clearly drafted better - they're best prospect is Klefbom, who was a WJC all star this year, and plays minutes in the SEL. I've only seen him at the WJC, but from all I've heard, he seems like a blue chip prospect.

Gernat, Musil, Marincin look like they're developing well. Bigos, Blain, Davidson? Teubert? Even Plante, who's now an AHL all-star team player. That, combined with the likelihood that Edmonton will take 2-3 defenders in the upcoming draft, and it adds up to drafting the best player available.
It looks like they've drafted better - have they? No one can say for sure until we see what these guys turn into. You can have all the prospects in the world and it looks fine and dandy on HF, but if they don't turn into NHL players, what do you have? As I said in my last post, on the Oilers I see proven NHL forward talent versus potential NHL defense talent.

hototogisu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:31 PM
  #209
tsnTpoint
Registered User
 
tsnTpoint's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 800
vCash: 500
I love how all the Montreal fans are trying to convince the Oiler fans to draft a d-man in desperate hopes that Grigs will fall to them.

tsnTpoint is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:40 PM
  #210
pocketful
"We'll see"
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 553
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBurke View Post
The huge issue here is Tavares for 79-82 games vs. Hall playing at a 60-65 game clip. RNH can't stay healthy either. The comparable talents of Seguin/Hall makes you wanna have the guy who actually plays his way through a season. Their first seasons are hardly comparable as Seguin as a healthy scratch half the year doesn't compare with Hall's first line minutes. Hopefully RNH can stay healthy because he's so fun to watch, but he's also so fragile and looks noticeably like a boy. This is why I think Forsberg is the dark horse for Edmontons pick. Adding a little size and skill wouldn't hurt, although I'm sure Oilers fans are hesitant after the Paajarvi ordeal. I'm also disappointed that Oil fans are righting MPS off, I think he still has a future in the top 6.
No one has written MPS out. He and Lander will be back at some point.

Not going to deny that RNH looks like a little boy but he shouldn't have a problem with staying health as long as he can avoid freak accidents.

Size and skill added to the Oilers forward line? Yes please!

pocketful is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-08-2012, 11:41 PM
  #211
victor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,797
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
I already acknowledged Petry in my post before, but he hasn't even played a season and a half in the NHL. He looks like a nice player, but he's not what I would call a slam dunk either. Smid we can add too (although he wasn't drafted by the Oilers, they played a big role in his development). But still...2 guys in 10 years is supposed to change my mind?

It looks like they've drafted better - have they? No one can say for sure until we see what these guys turn into. You can have all the prospects in the world and it looks fine and dandy on HF, but if they don't turn into NHL players, what do you have? As I said in my last post, on the Oilers I see proven NHL forward talent versus potential NHL defense talent.
Vancouver hasn't won a cup in their existence. Does that mean that they can't? No, and with anything historical, you have to take into consideration a number of factors.

Edmonton drafted poorly - no question. They had a poor development system prior to Petry and Peckham, surely. Does that mean they'll never be able to develop the players they need?

In the last ten years, they've developed players like Gilbert, MA Bergeron, and Grebeshkov (moved for a 2nd round pick) Like Smid, they didn't draft them. They have a number of prospects, including at least one "blue chip" one, and appear to have improved their development.

Personally, I'd say that this ranks up with the goaltending controversy earlier this season. Edmonton hadn't developed a goaltender since Ranford, or drafted one since Fuhr. Does that mean Dubnyk can't play? Ask Higgins, or any of the teams he played to get to his 0.914SP, 20 Win season.

victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:08 AM
  #212
Tedenby21
Boo's Dangles
 
Tedenby21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Burlington, Vermont
Country: United States
Posts: 8,196
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsnTpoint View Post
I love how all the Montreal fans are trying to convince the Oiler fans to draft a d-man in desperate hopes that Grigs will fall to them.
I'm not a Montreal fan and I don't have anything against the Oilers, and I think they should take a d-man. Whether it is taking Murray or moving down and taking someone else.

I don't want to hear about how most top d-men aren't taken in the beginning of the first round or how d-men can be acquired in UFA or a trade. Oilers fans seem to hope that they will get lucky with a later round d-man turning into a top guy. You can sit and wait all day for that.

It's like someone saying oh we don't have to worry about forwards because Detroit drafted Datsyuk in the 6th round and Zetterberg in the 7th round. Things like that are exception to the rule.

In today's NHL, you have to build your team through the draft. If you continue to neglect taking d-men you will most likely never have a good defensive unit or depth. You are putting all your eggs in one basket hoping a couple of your d-men pan out or the ones that look like they could be making the next step don't regress.

Tedenby21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:12 AM
  #213
hototogisu
Global Moderator
Poked the bear!!!!!
 
hototogisu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Montreal, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,935
vCash: 500
Awards:
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsnTpoint View Post
I love how all the Montreal fans are trying to convince the Oiler fans to draft a d-man in desperate hopes that Grigs will fall to them.
So what you're saying is that my intentions in this thread are to convince the Edmonton Oiler fans to draft a defenseman with their pick (a job that used to be reserved for the GM and scouting staff, to my knowledge) so that I can get my hands on the almighty Mikhail Grigorenko, who I have been secretly coveting all this time?

Well you've got me dead to rights then.

Quote:
Originally Posted by victor View Post
Vancouver hasn't won a cup in their existence. Does that mean that they can't? No, and with anything historical, you have to take into consideration a number of factors.

Edmonton drafted poorly - no question. They had a poor development system prior to Petry and Peckham, surely. Does that mean they'll never be able to develop the players they need?

In the last ten years, they've developed players like Gilbert, MA Bergeron, and Grebeshkov (moved for a 2nd round pick) Like Smid, they didn't draft them. They have a number of prospects, including at least one "blue chip" one, and appear to have improved their development.

Personally, I'd say that this ranks up with the goaltending controversy earlier this season. Edmonton hadn't developed a goaltender since Ranford, or drafted one since Fuhr. Does that mean Dubnyk can't play? Ask Higgins, or any of the teams he played to get to his 0.914SP, 20 Win season.
My point wasn't that Edmonton can't develop a defenseman - it's that they haven't (well they have, but nothing that would exactly bowl anyone over or suggest that this pattern is in for an immediate reversal of fortunes). It seems like quite a lot to pin one's hopes on - the hope that 10 years of history is suddenly in for a timely correction. It would be nice if it were, and it might be, but it's a pretty big risk nevertheless.

hototogisu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:12 AM
  #214
Vdhawan89
#FireLowe
 
Vdhawan89's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 3,758
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by I Hate Jay Feaster View Post
Edmonton deserves Grigorenko for having to endure **** hockey since 2007.
This.

Vdhawan89 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:13 AM
  #215
victor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,797
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by tsnTpoint View Post
I love how all the Montreal fans are trying to convince the Oiler fans to draft a d-man in desperate hopes that Grigs will fall to them.
I'm an Oilers fan, and I'd draft the best player available, and trade up, if feasible.

If Yakupov is the best player (and it appears that he is,) I'd try and add him to Edmonton's roster, regardless of the perceived holes.

At the start of last season, Edmonton's biggest weakness was a young, starting goalie. Now, it's a young, top pairing defender. Next year?

victor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:14 AM
  #216
oilersfan87
Registered User
 
oilersfan87's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,162
vCash: 500
Hall- RNH- Eberle
Haartikinen - Grigorenko- Hemsky
Paajarvi- Gagner- Jones
Smyth- Lander- Hamilton

If all these players play to their potential this would just be beastly by 2013-2014 hopefully Hemsky and Smyth would be replaced by someone better by then though

oilersfan87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:27 AM
  #217
Edgeworth*
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,847
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by oilersfan87 View Post
Hall- RNH- Eberle
Haartikinen - Grigorenko- Hemsky
Paajarvi- Gagner- Jones
Smyth- Lander- Hamilton

If all these players play to their potential this would just be beastly by 2013-2014 hopefully Hemsky and Smyth would be replaced by someone better by then though
Considering that 4th line is getting 5-10 minutes a night, who gives a ****?

Edgeworth* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:29 AM
  #218
Philly85
Moody'
 
Philly85's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 12,003
vCash: 500
Defensive depth is easier to shore up than bonafide offensive depth. Plus, history has shown - whether it be through drafting, trade, free agency etc., that it is "easier" to acquire top end D talent than it is for say, number one or number two centers. It's clear that the Oilers have began to get better in their pipeline with D prospects, the pool is as strong and as deep as it's ever been. Perhaps there is no pure stud waiting in the wings but they do have 1 or 2 very good bets to become NHL'ers along with another 2-3 players who have top 4 potential. Of course, that's all it really is: potential. They also, however, have finally gotten a proper organizational development system in place with the Oklahoma City Barons, that will go a long way in helping them develop their defensemen as efficiently as possible. This was a major problem the Oilers had for years which has finally been rectified under Daryl Katz. It's why they couldn't pump out anyone worth noting for such a long stretch. A new organizational philosophy has been put into place over the past 2-3 years in the prospect/development department, I'm confident enough to say we will see some good homegrown D-men entering the NHL in the next few years.

Make no mistake, as big of a buffoon that Tambellini and Lowe are, they went into this season with their band-aid/duct tape D-corps hoping for another low finish so they could draft high. Petry turned a massive corner in the second half of the season and Smid finally looks like a very good top 4 shutdown D-man. Whitney and Shultz are good players and I think a full season with these guys healthy playing together will be decent enough. It buys them time for Klefbom, Marincin and the likes. I'm sure they'll sign an FA or two as well. Situation isn't as dire as some make it out to be. I'm confident things will turn around for them in due time. Can't stress it enough though that Petry really turned the corner this year development wise and looks like a complete stud in the making. He was slept on this year, big time.

The Oilers should draft BPA, and if that is Grigorenko, then perfect.

Philly85 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 02:23 AM
  #219
pouskin74*
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Swansea, UK
Posts: 4,388
vCash: 500
i make it short, yes its fair enough.

pouskin74* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 02:32 AM
  #220
Clownpipe*
Whitney Smash!
 
Clownpipe*'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Bhancoubhair
Country: Scotland
Posts: 1,978
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tedenby21 View Post
In today's NHL, you have to build your team through the draft. If you continue to neglect taking d-men you will most likely never have a good defensive unit or depth. You are putting all your eggs in one basket hoping a couple of your d-men pan out or the ones that look like they could be making the next step don't regress.
Everything you say about Dmen is just as true wrt centers, if not more so. EDM needs a better option than Gagner in the 2 hole. They need size and grit in their top 6 as well. EDM has some nice D prospects developing. If they roll with the philosophy that they might not have a dominant 1D norris candidate, but instead a solid group of top 4 guys, depth, in addition to a deadly offence, PP, etc...there's no reason to think they can't be a contender. Once they become a decent team, they will also be able to fill more holes via UFA...nothing elite - just more solid pickups that make us harder to play against. The Oilers haven't neglected Dmen...they're just not ready yet. What they have neglected is secondary offence and a one line team is easy to shut down in the playoffs. The Oilers need a big, skilled center more than a Dman.

Clownpipe* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 03:06 AM
  #221
boredmale
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 22,882
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tedenby21 View Post
In today's NHL, you have to build your team through the draft. If you continue to neglect taking d-men you will most likely never have a good defensive unit or depth. You are putting all your eggs in one basket hoping a couple of your d-men pan out or the ones that look like they could be making the next step don't regress.
If you look at top scoring forwards, it's much easier to find them in the top 10 picks then later in the draft. Top Defensemen on the other hand seem to be available later in the draft.

I know offensive stats are the be all and end all to a player but here is where the top scoring forwards and defensemen were picked


Top 20 Forwards
1-10: Malkin, Stamkos, Spezza, Kovalchuk, Kessel, Tavares, H. Sedin, Thornton, Gaborik, Staal(should be noted all these guys are top 3 picks besides Kessel who was 5th)

11-30: Giroux, Hossa, Eberle, Kopitar

2nd: Neal, Elias, Whitney, Pominville, Eriksson

UFA: St Louis

Beyond these guys
Moulson(9th), Sharp(3rd), Parise(1st), Zetterberg(7th), Hartnell(1-10), Iginla(1st), D Sedin(1-10), Seguin(1-10), Lupul(1-10), Datsyuk(6th)

Defensemen

1-10: Pietrangelo, Suter, Phaneuf, J Johnson

11-30:Karlsson, Shattenkirk, Del Zotto

2nd: Weber, Keith

3rd: Chara, Elder, Letang

4th+: Byfuglien, Campbell, Striet, Wideman, Bieska, Yandle, Timonen

UFA: Boyle

Looking at what kind of picks get picked where there is a case you take a high scoring forward when you have a chance(although there is always exceptions to the rule when you have a hopeful top pairing guy)

boredmale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 03:31 AM
  #222
5RingsAndABeer
John MacKinnon Fan
 
5RingsAndABeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 10,699
vCash: 1220
^ Completely agree.

If you do an analysis of where the top forwards and top defenseman come from, it becomes clear why most teams shy away from taking defensemen at the top of the draft. Forwards are mostly found in the top part of the draft, while defenseman are littered all over the draft.

Everyone needs to stop assuming that Edmonton is an offensive powerhouse. They have a lot to improve on in their forward corps too.

5RingsAndABeer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 03:47 AM
  #223
boredmale
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 22,882
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5RingsAndABeer View Post
^ Completely agree.

If you do an analysis of where the top forwards and top defenseman come from, it becomes clear why most teams shy away from taking defensemen at the top of the draft. Forwards are mostly found in the top part of the draft, while defenseman are littered all over the draft.

Everyone needs to stop assuming that Edmonton is an offensive powerhouse. They have a lot to improve on in their forward corps too.
For the sake of argument not as many defensemen are taken in the top 10 so you have a less of a sample size

Here is all the defensemen taken since 2000 in the first 10 picks

Klesla(4th), Lars Jonsson(7th), Komisarek(7th), Bouwmeester(3rd), Pitkanen(4th), Whitney(5th), Suter(7th), Coburn(8), Phaneuf(9th), Barker(3rd), Smid(9th), Valabik(10th), J Johnson(3rd), Lee(9th), Bourdon(10th), E Johnson(1st), Hickey(4th), Alzner(5th), Ellerby(10th), Doughty(2nd), Bogosian(3rd), Pietrangelo(4th), Schenn(5th), Hedman(2nd), Ekman-Larsson(6), Cowen(9th), Gudbranson(3rd), McIlrath(10th), Larsson(4th), Hamilton(9th), Brodin(10th)

Looking at if the team made the right pick or not the hit rate on defenseman is actually pretty good(it seems like forwards are more likely to bust on a whole)

Only Jonsson, Coburn, Barker, Valabik, Lee, Bourdon(I added him because they really should have taken Kopitar), Hickey, Ellerby and McClrath look like bad picks compared who they could have had that were picked in the relative same area. It should be pointed out that Hickey and McClrath where both stretches by there teams where they were picked. It basically looks that teams that picked defensemen in the first 10 picks though made the right choice 22 of 31 times(or at least they didn't totally screw up because you could argue there was somebody slightly better picked a few picks after)


Last edited by boredmale: 04-09-2012 at 03:53 AM.
boredmale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:48 PM
  #224
Tedenby21
Boo's Dangles
 
Tedenby21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Burlington, Vermont
Country: United States
Posts: 8,196
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
For the sake of argument not as many defensemen are taken in the top 10 so you have a less of a sample size

Here is all the defensemen taken since 2000 in the first 10 picks

Klesla(4th), Lars Jonsson(7th), Komisarek(7th), Bouwmeester(3rd), Pitkanen(4th), Whitney(5th), Suter(7th), Coburn(8), Phaneuf(9th), Barker(3rd), Smid(9th), Valabik(10th), J Johnson(3rd), Lee(9th), Bourdon(10th), E Johnson(1st), Hickey(4th), Alzner(5th), Ellerby(10th), Doughty(2nd), Bogosian(3rd), Pietrangelo(4th), Schenn(5th), Hedman(2nd), Ekman-Larsson(6), Cowen(9th), Gudbranson(3rd), McIlrath(10th), Larsson(4th), Hamilton(9th), Brodin(10th)

Looking at if the team made the right pick or not the hit rate on defenseman is actually pretty good(it seems like forwards are more likely to bust on a whole)

Only Jonsson, Coburn, Barker, Valabik, Lee, Bourdon(I added him because they really should have taken Kopitar), Hickey, Ellerby and McClrath look like bad picks compared who they could have had that were picked in the relative same area. It should be pointed out that Hickey and McClrath where both stretches by there teams where they were picked. It basically looks that teams that picked defensemen in the first 10 picks though made the right choice 22 of 31 times(or at least they didn't totally screw up because you could argue there was somebody slightly better picked a few picks after)
Please don't bring logic into this.

Tedenby21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
04-09-2012, 12:59 PM
  #225
dem
Registered User
 
dem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,579
vCash: 500
Valabik was definitely a stretch when drafted. He was ranked high on lists... but it was mind boggling.

The only things he had going for him were size and nastyness. 100% project. One of the worst first rounders I can remember.

dem is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:58 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.