I know this isn't rocket science, but for those that want a quick guide.
If TSN does it like they have in the past, they will reveal the team in position five first, then team four, and so on.
If the team in position five is:
TOR - that means TOR, ANA, MIN, CAR, and WPG did not win the lottery.
NYI - that means either TOR, ANA, MIN, CAR won the lottery.
WPG - that means WPG has won the lottery.
If you're a EDM/MON fan, you want nothing to change until your team's current draft position. At that point, you wish to see the team just above you in the pre lottery draft order, which would mean you have won.
Seems like we are due for a team entering the lottery in the #1 slot to be bumped down, last time it happened was 2007...
I agree. While the chances of Columbus retaining their pick is 48.2%, the likelihood of the 30th ranked team (in their respective years) drafting first in five consecutive drafts should be (.4825 =) 2.6% if I understand probability correctly.
I agree. While the chances of Columbus retaining their pick is 48.2%, the likelihood of the 30th ranked team (in their respective years) drafting first in five consecutive drafts should be (.4825 =) 2.6% if I understand probability correctly.
Actually, the likelihood of the 30th ranked team (in their respective years) drafting first in five consecutive drafts is 48%.
Past lotteries have no bearing on this year's lottery, just like how the roulette ball can roll on red 15 times in a row.
I'm sure you're right, but it seems counterintuitive (just like it seems very improbable that a roulette ball will roll on red 15 times in a row).
Rolling on red 15 times in a row is only improbable if you're talking about the next 15 rolls. If it already landed on red 14 times, and you're about to bet on the 15th roll, chances are 50-50.
Same as here. The odds that the 2012-2016 draft lotteries all have the 30th team picking first is slim. But 2008-2012? Not so slim because it's not about 2008-2012 anymore, it's just about 2012.
Actually, the likelihood of the 30th ranked team (in their respective years) drafting first in five consecutive drafts is 48%.
Past lotteries have no bearing on this year's lottery, just like how the roulette ball can roll on red 15 times in a row.
that cant be true... with a coin in one flip the probability to flip a heads is 50%, two flips the probability of flipping 2 heads is 1/2 * 1/2= 1/4 = 25%, three in three is 1/8 and so on so the first part isnt true in the perspective of the past few years
But you are right in the assertion that this particular draft its 50/50 pretty much...
Ill put it this way, what we are dealing with with the past 3-4 years with the #1 retaining the pick is a statistical anomaly... I guess it all depends on how you want to look at it, as each draft lottery as part of a whole group or as each individual one its own beast/... in a practical sense its best to do each one individually I guess
that cant be true... with a coin in one flip the probability to flip a heads is 50%, two flips the probability of flipping 2 heads is 1/2 * 1/2= 1/4 = 25%, three in three is 1/8 and so on so the first part isnt true in the perspective of the past few years
But you are right in the assertion that this particular draft its 50/50 pretty much...
Ill put it this way, what we are dealing with with the past 3-4 years with the #1 retaining the pick is a statistical anomaly... I guess it all depends on how you want to look at it, as each draft lottery as part of a whole group or as each individual one its own beast/... in a practical sense its best to do each one individually I guess
We're also due for the 2 slot to win the lottery as it has never happened. Probably not what you wanted to hear though.
I would be excited if the Oil went up to #1, it means the Habs stay 3rd, which is fine by me as it means one of Grigo/Gally is available for sure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dubey
That can't be right
#2 has never won the lottery?
I just checked and it seems to be accurate.
The only year I question is 1998, where was expansion Nashville in that lottery? The 2nd worst team that season, the Panthers, ended up ''winning'' the lottery and TB had the pick via a trade with SJ. SJ had previously acquired it from FLA.
(via COL)
