Political Discussion - "on-topic & unmoderated"Rated PG13, unmoderated but threads must stay on topic - that means you can flame each other all you want as long as it's legal
So your whole premise is that the party that currently in power is going to fragment and break up and the 3rd place party is going to get 99 out of 103 seats in Ontario all while McGuinty keeps tarnishing the brand in Ontario.
Also Ontario is getting 15 more seats next election while Alberta and BC get 6 more.
The Liberals are also becoming a third place party when it comes to fundraising. The party is broke and most riding associations are in shambles. Most potential candidates are still deep in debt from the previous leadership race.
All of your points seemed to be pulled from thin air as opposed to having any credible knowledge behind them. The Liberals have 11 MP's from Ontario right now. The Conservatives got 44.5% of the vote and we'll over 50% of the vote in rural seats where the Liberals were not even competitive. It's thinking like yours which has the LPC in its position today. The Party needs to be blown up and built from the grass roots up. 4 leaders in 5 years shows just how much trouble the party is in.
No, my whole premise is that Harper is holding together a party with many different sides. I did not say that they would break up. I said Kenney was not marketable in eastern Canada, which is 100% true. It's your thinking that leads you to believe that any western province not named BC has any type of power. The Majority of this governments seats are based in Ontario. If they lose them, they what, because neither the PC's or Reform were competitive at all provinces wide, and the NDP is simply too far left. I bet your were sold on the same crap in 1992, I mean Mulroney will win again, the Liberals have had two crappy leaders (Turner and Gray), whatever.
And what is your basis for say Quebec is no political clout. Seriously?
We know you don't like mcguinty, not like you have a plan for ontario so keep that out of this.
330 seat plan died in the last parliament is has not been brought up again. The number is 308 and any new seats will not come without QC getting some.
Diarrhea has higher approvals than Charest in Quebec.
Except with the anglo vote, where he beats it by a decent margin. The lack of competition with this part of the electorate in Québec is staggering (and worrying, to be honest.)
Problem is, the anglo vote wouldn't follow him to the CPC.
Harper will run again in 2015. I believe he was born in 1964 which puts him at 48 years old now. He's young, not even 50. Canada wasn't really damaged during the recession in 2008, we were hit a bit, but in general stayed pretty steady. Voters remembered this in 2011, or just couldn't stomach voting for Michael Ignatieff.
He'll be around for a while, I'm not too worried. I do wish he'd rock the boat with certain things though but he might want another majority and then on his way out make some changes. That's how politics goes in Canada for some reason.
The future Liberal leader - Justin Trudeau - I am no fan of. He's put his foot in his mouth too many times with things and represents a lot of what is wrong about Canada. But............his name is Trudeau, not Smith, and someday he might be PM just based on former fans of his father. Until then, Harper is pretty much a puppet master if he wants to be.
Harper will run again in 2015. I believe he was born in 1964 which puts him at 48 years old now. He's young, not even 50. Canada wasn't really damaged during the recession in 2008, we were hit a bit, but in general stayed pretty steady. Voters remembered this in 2011, or just couldn't stomach voting for Michael Ignatieff.
He'll be around for a while, I'm not too worried. I do wish he'd rock the boat with certain things though but he might want another majority and then on his way out make some changes. That's how politics goes in Canada for some reason.
The future Liberal leader - Justin Trudeau - I am no fan of. He's put his foot in his mouth too many times with things and represents a lot of what is wrong about Canada. But............his name is Trudeau, not Smith, and someday he might be PM just based on former fans of his father. Until then, Harper is pretty much a puppet master if he wants to be.
I agree. Except the Liberal Leader should be me . Harper was born in 1959.
As long as the Conservatives stay united, conditions in 1997 and 2000 which allowed the Liberals to "come up the middle" in countless Ontario ridings simply will not exist. What is so hard to understand about that? This is assuming the Liberals can even come back from their current state of decline, which is by no means certain.
A 1993-style "throw the bums out!" wave is still possible, but even that year there was still a right-wing vote split, with the PCs and Reform combining to win 37% of the Ontario vote - which translated to just one seat.
As long as the Conservatives stay united, conditions in 1997 and 2000 which allowed the Liberals to "come up the middle" in countless Ontario ridings simply will not exist. What is so hard to understand about that? This is assuming the Liberals can even come back from their current state of decline, which is by no means certain.
A 1993-style "throw the bums out!" wave is still possible, but even that year there was still a right-wing vote split, with the PCs and Reform combining to win 37% of the Ontario vote - which translated to just one seat.
Which will not happen post Harper. People do not not give Stephen enough credit for being a pragmatist, something Kenney is not and never will be.
Which will not happen post Harper. People do not not give Stephen enough credit for being a pragmatist, something Kenney is not and never will be.
This I agree with. The only pragmatic guy among the current crop of potential CPC leaders post-Harper is James Moore, but he's a longshot compared to guys like Kenney, who has way too much old Reformer stink on him for most red tories.
I would have thought people would have learned their lesson about dismissing politicians considering where Harper is. Everything (and more) people are saying about Kenney's unsuitability and unelectability were said about Harper just 6 years ago. Kenney has basically become Harper's most important minister politically (if not administratively, where Flaherty is obviously the #2) and is a part of Harper's inner circle. If there was no pragmatism in Kenney, how could he serve so closely in the Harper government?
That being said, what many here about Harper is also true. That he has held this still young party together is nothing short of impressive. Not only has he held it together, but he has turned it into the post efficient and effective political machine in Canada. For a sense of how impressive this is, take a look at what is going on in Alberta where his base is currently split between two parties. His Alberta caucus has considerable ties to both sides of this election, yet not only has it not been an issue, nobody is even talking about how it hasn't been an issue. A family fued in Alberta could easily engulf the federal party but it hasn't.
I think Harper will best be judged (and Harper will judge his own performance) not by what is done during his premiership, but by what happens in Canada and the conservative movement after he's gone. Make no mistake, Harper is a genuine small 'c' conservative, and he has appeared to win the argument, with Red Tories and with blue Tories like Kenney, that incrementalism (even in majority) is their recipe for prolonged, generational success.
As for somebody mentioning Baird, it is tough, at this point, to imagine him replacing Harper. He is an effective administrator, and his political skills in the house and on messaging with the media are impressive (for all their mockery of him, the Liberals and NDP would love to have a John Baird). I could actually see him serving as an interem leader or Prime Minister during a leadership race.
As far as a leadership contest in general, it would, as these things typically do, come down to individuals with a strong regional power bloc going at each other. From the west, people have talked about Kenney and Prentice (honorable mention to James Moore). From Quebec, Bernier is basically the only guy I can think of who could and would mount a leadership bid. Obviously Mckay in Atlantic Canada.
That leaves what is now the biggest provincial caucus of any party and that is the Ontario Tories. I'm thinking Flaherty's window for leadership has past as he is already 62. People have mentioned Chris Alexander (who is intriguing) but he would need some serious help from Baird/Flaherty in order to lock up Ontario. There doesn't appear to be any obvious individual who could step in and be 'the Ontario candidate'.
I guess in summation, it is entirely wide open as to who could replace Harper. There is no heir apparent or no rival that credibly exists (though I have a feeling we could see Kenney emgerge as an heir apparent so to speak, his being from Alberta will hurt him outside of the west).
I think people are underestimating Kenney, or at least paining him with a bigger "Reform" brush than necessary. The guy has been very successful reaching out to different communities. He's one of the main reasons the CPC has been able to expand from their traditional voter based and steal a significant portion of the immigrant vote, which used to be solely Liberal territory. From a personality standpoint as well, he's quite a bit more approachable than some of the other "younger" Tories (Baird, Van Loan). McKay used to have the gig in the bag, but he's shot himself in the foot too many times to have any chance now.
I think the CPC get a minority next time so given that I see Harper stepping down in the middle of 2016. No idea on who the next leader may be. I always thought Mackay would do it but the guy's a career politician now himself (Been a MP since he was 32, he's 47 now) and may look at resigning soon.
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Exhibit A as to how hockey doesn't matter on ESPN:
Last night an ESPN program was discussing how the Detroit Pistons needed a hero citing the heroes on the Detroit Tigers, Detroit Lions and no mention of the Detroit Red Wings. All this despite the Red Wings probably being the most succesful team in Detroit right now.
. Harper was born in 1959.
