Columbus keeps it = 48.2% (482 combinations)
Columbus loses it = 51.8% (518 combinations)
*Remember that only the top 5 teams have a chance at the 1st overall selection, as a team can only move up 4 spots by winning the lottery.
I figured that it would be nice to get some discussion going, as we all know this subject will be taking up much of the discussion over the next 3 days. As soon as the lottery is over, we can take the discussion back to the draft sticky.
I just want to remind all of you that if Toronto ends up picking before the Habs and then they pick the exact player we want, well just how anger will you be that the Habs did NOT dump that last game.
What if it's found out that Burke cut a deal with Molson. That the Habs win that last game allowing Toronto to move up to the bottom 5 for a much better pick, then Burke stabs Molson in the back and steals our player right from under Molson's nose.
3rd is ok. 1st would be awesome. 4th would be a little meh since, as far as I know, the top end quality of players drops quite a bit with each pick this year. Not that I think the 4th overall pick will end up being terrible but we have a better chance with someone like Yakupov for example.
I just want to remind all of you that if Toronto ends up picking before the Habs and then they pick the exact player we want, well just how anger will you be that the Habs did NOT dump that last game.
What if it's found out that Burke cut a deal with Molson. That the Habs win that last game allowing Toronto to move up to the bottom 5 for a much better pick, then Burke stabs Molson in the back and steals our player right from under Molson's nose.
HUMMM
That's the dumbest thing I've ever read.
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"Our priority is finding the best possible person to help us win." - Geoff Molson
Teams can only go up 5 spots so we only need to worry about :
28th MTL = 14.2% (142 combinations)
27th NYI = 10.7% (107 combinations)
26th TOR = 08.1% (081 combinations)
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25th ANA = 06.2% (062 combinations)
24th MIN = 04.7% (047 combinations)
23rd CAR = 03.6% (036 combinations)
So in total, there's a 33.3% of one of those 5 teams winning the lottery, thus pushing the Habs back to 4th. Otherwise, we have a 14.2% chance of drafting 1st and the rest = 3rd.
Err according to op it's up 4 spots so redo the math. So around 30% chance of us getting screwed instead.
