I would love to see them sign Parise. Although I think the bidding war for him will be high and the Bruins may not be willing to offer what it takes. I think Parise to some degree makes Horton expendable so I would look to trade him at some point if they landed Parise.
While I think Suter or Weber would be nice, I think the team needs a Parise type player more than another defenseman (but Suter would be nice if Parise doesn't work out).
I think we'll need to see whether Chia thinks that Pouliot has done enough to earn the raise he's likely to get in a deal. I'm sure his performance this year has some other teams interested, but he's probably not ever going to play a top 2 line role with us. I personally think Rolston is a near sure-bet to come back if the Bruins let Paille walk and he wants to play. He's great depth as an emergency forward, he's played great with us, and he's not likely to command a lot of money. I think he could replicate most of Paille for less money.
I think Kelly is re-signed for probably what we might consider overpayment (3.25-3.5m) and Campbell walks, looking for more than 1.5m or so. Paille, I think, will also walk.
That'd leave Horton, Krejci, Lucic, Marchand, Begeron, Seguin, Peverly, Kelly, Caron, Rolston and Thornton under contract. If Pouliot would take less than 2m and sign for 1 year, I think he'd be the likely guy to plug in there. I think you could give a shot to Camper, Knight, Spooner, Sauve, etc. to beat out Rolston for an active spot, but I'd be uncomfortable with less than 12 NHL capable forwards entering the year. If the Bruins had some concern over Horton for next year I think they'd need to bring in another top 3 line type as well.
Defensively, I'd definitely bring back Zanon if it's reasonable (1-2 years, ~2m or so). Zanon, Ference, McQuaid, Chara, Seidenberg and Boychuck would all be under team control, and again, you could give Hamilton or Krug a chance to win their way into the roster from there.
I have a little bit of a different opinion than you do, I think Campbell re-signs and Kelly walks.
I also am hoping the Bruins go after Parise to pair him up with Seguin who will play center and the lineup could look like this:
Chara-Seidenberg
Boychuk-Ference
McQuaid-Hamilton
Krug
Rask
Khudobin
Thomas gets traded for picks/prospects
I also don't see the Bruins re-signing Rolston, there is no need if Horton is healthy and they sign Parise.
Pouliot gets a 1 year deal to take him to UFA status and plays on the 4th line and can move up to be an injury fill in.
As much as I want to see Knight and Spooner, I think they both get at least a year in the AHL just like Krejci and Marchand did.
I wouldn't be the least bit upset if the Bruins went after Suter either I just think there is going to be more of a bidding war for Suter. It's just a hunch so we'll see how it shakes out.
Horton played on a crap team his entire career, came to Boston and won a Stanley Cup. He has two small kids, one just born in this city, and his family is obviously very happy here. So why, exactly, would he waive his NTC? To go to a Stanley Cup contender?
Interesting to see that there's more than a few of us who'd like to see Seguin moved back to center.
Also, there's talk of Iginla being in play again. That could be a big fish they could land that wouldn't complicate things for them, cap-wise, long-term.
DEFENSEMEN
Zdeno Chara ($6.917m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m)
Dennis Seidenberg ($3.250m) / Dougie Hamilton ($1.525m)
Andrew Ference ($2.250m) / Adam McQuaid ($1.567m)
Mike Mottau ($0.800m) /
GOALTENDERS
Tuukka Rask ($2.500m)
Anton Khudobin ($0.875m)
BUYOUTS
Patrick Eaves ($0.258m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,891,666; BONUSES: $3,587,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,408,334
Why does Parise pick the B's? Because of money. Boston won't be the top bidder. Because he wants to win the cup here? Wishful thinking. Would any of you leave money on the table at his age. I wouldn't. Why does Chia go after him. All he's done is resign his own players. And pick up complimentary pieces.
Just look at Chia' track record and you can figure out what is going to happen. It's a cap world.
According to Capgeek, the Bruins have a cap surplus of over 1 million at year's end. When the season is over, Rolston (5mil pro rated), Mottau, Zanon, Paille, Corvo, Campbell and Kelly's contracts will have expired.
Dont understand what the $1 million surplus is for. It doesn't carry forward if that's the suggestion. Sorry if not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alycat
Don't forget that bonuses and any other penalties haven't been calculated yet and this will bring the number down a bit.
Bonuses are counted this year because there is no bonus cushion. There will be no penalty carry over next year.
However, with a new CBA, we don't know how bonuses will be counted going forward.
Why does Parise pick the B's? Because of money. Boston won't be the top bidder. Because he wants to win the cup here? Wishful thinking. Would any of you leave money on the table at his age. I wouldn't. Why does Chia go after him. All he's done is resign his own players. And pick up complimentary pieces.
Just look at Chia' track record and you can figure out what is going to happen. It's a cap world.
I don't know Zach Parise, but I do know that there are as many different factors that go into where a free agent chooses to sign as there are individuals signing contracts. Of course money is a factor, but it's not the sole consideration. Would you sign a contract, for example, with a team whose administration you didn't trust, for a bit more money?
I need to precurse this by saying there is a lot of assumptions and speculation here obviously because I am going to try and look 14 months into the future.
First to figure out this offseason:
FORWARDS
Milan Lucic ($4.083m) / David Krejci ($5.250m) / Nathan Horton ($4.000m)
Brad Marchand ($2.500m) / Patrice Bergeron ($5.000m) / Tyler Seguin ($3.550m)
Rich Peverley ($3.250m) / Jordan Caron ($1.100m)
Shawn Thornton ($1.100m)
DEFENSEMEN
Zdeno Chara ($6.917m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m)
Dennis Seidenberg ($3.250m) / Andrew Ference ($2.250m)
Torey Krug ($1.696m) / Adam McQuaid ($1.567m)
GOALTENDERS
Anton Khudobin ($0.875m)
BUYOUTS
Patrick Eaves ($0.258m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $50,012,500; BONUSES: $3,700,000
CAP SPACE (16-man roster): $14,287,500
Minimum needs for next year:
3rd line center (2.25m)
4th line center and winger (1.9m)
13th forward (1m)
4-6 dman-probably Dougie (1.525m)
Tuukka Rask (3.5m)
10.175m leaving ~4m
If you pick up Suter:
3rd line center (2.25m)
4th line center and winger (1.9m)
13th forward (1m)
Suter (6.5m)
Tuukka Rask (3.5m)
If you pick up Parise:
Parise (7m)
3rd line center (2.25m)
4th line center (1m)
13th forward (1m)
4-6 dman-probably Dougie (1.525m)
Tuukka Rask (3.5m)
15.15m and 16.275m respectively these are really close to the cap and potentially doable if the salary cap goes up or if you move Krug down and leave Hamilton in OHL and bring in Warsofsky, Bartkowski or Mottau but you can't do anything at the deadline and it brings you to your next problem the following year:
I will just take a look at what happens if they sign Parise since that is probably the more manageable situation cap wise of the 2 potential big signings. Assuming the best case scenario cap space wise they bring in a stop gap 3rd center and 1 of the 4th liner this offseason until 2 of spooner, knight and khoko are ready
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($7.000m) / David Krejci ($5.250m)
Patrice Bergeron ($5.000m)
Ryan Spooner ($0.723m) / Jared Knight ($0.723m) / Rich Peverley ($3.250m)
4th center ($1.000m) / Shawn Thornton ($1.100m)
DEFENSEMEN
Zdeno Chara ($6.917m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m)
Dennis Seidenberg ($3.250m) / Adam McQuaid ($1.567m)
Torey Krug ($1.696m) / Dougie Hamilton ($1.525m)
GOALTENDERS
Anton Khudobin ($0.875m)
Tuukka Rask ($3.500m)
BUYOUTS
Patrick Eaves ($0.258m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $47,000,833; BONUSES: $1,587,500
CAP SPACE (16-man roster): $17,299,167
With 17.3m this team needs to sign:
a first line winger (5.5M)
2 second line wingers (8M)
4th line winger (.9M)
13th forward (.9m)
7th defensman (.9m)
(16.2m)
Ideally they resign everyone but Horton since Parise will be his replacement:
Seguin (6.5m)
Lucic (5.5m)
Marchand (3.75m)
4th line winger, 13th forward, 7th defensman (2.5-2.7m)
(18.25-18.5m)
For those 3 players that is the absolute minimum I can imagine them getting unless they fall off a cliff next season
Obviously the cap can go up and there are some other things that can be done but signing Parise or Suter puts you in a super tight situation the next 2 seasons almost no matter what and I just am not sure it is the most responsible way for a GM who clearly prefers depth over top end talent to go about building his team.
Why does Parise pick the B's? Because of money. Boston won't be the top bidder. Because he wants to win the cup here? Wishful thinking. Would any of you leave money on the table at his age. I wouldn't. Why does Chia go after him. All he's done is resign his own players. And pick up complimentary pieces.
Just look at Chia' track record and you can figure out what is going to happen. It's a cap world.
Zach Parise's personal stalker Pierre McGuire says that he has 2-3 teams that he is willing to sign with if things don't work out in NJ. (Mentions specifically theres no chance he'd sign in Toronto ) http://autopod.ca/chum/22/podcasts/
I went on capgeek and looked at contending teams that have money to spend on a top end guy and I came down to:
NYR
Detroit
Boston
NYR - they have the space and look like they will be competitive but will he want to be looked at as the next Gomez?
Detroit - Why would he want to go play with those old farts?
Boston - he could come here and be play with the electrifying man in sports entertainment not named The Rock.
I don't know Zach Parise, but I do know that there are as many different factors that go into where a free agent chooses to sign as there are individuals signing contracts. Of course money is a factor, but it's not the sole consideration. Would you sign a contract, for example, with a team whose administration you didn't trust, for a bit more money?
Case in point, Hossa turned down a 10 year 10m per from Edmonton to sign with the Red Wings for 7.14m for one season.
Parise’s his knee injury last season is cause for concern when investing in a player for big money and long term. Also, Tyler Seguin was only two points behind Parise this year, signing Praise for big money long term sets the table for Seguin’s new contract. Parise is a top level forward, but I don’t see scoring goals as a big of an issue to spend 7m+ on it, not to mention if Seguin is scoring at the same level as Parise it would be hard to deny him the same pay when Parise is on the team.
Suter on the other hand I would have no problems at all laying down the money for. I have always wanted the Bruins to have two number one defencemen and Suter is the talent we lack on the back end. He can skate, he has great vision and he can defend at an elite level, truly a defencemen who can move the puck and fit our system. Chara, Suter and Siedenberg would be as good as the Ducks Pronger, Niedermayer and Beauchemin
I need to precurse this by saying there is a lot of assumptions and speculation here obviously because I am going to try and look 14 months into the future.
First to figure out this offseason:
FORWARDS
Milan Lucic ($4.083m) / David Krejci ($5.250m) / Nathan Horton ($4.000m)
Brad Marchand ($2.500m) / Patrice Bergeron ($5.000m) / Tyler Seguin ($3.550m)
Rich Peverley ($3.250m) / Jordan Caron ($1.100m)
Shawn Thornton ($1.100m)
DEFENSEMEN
Zdeno Chara ($6.917m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m)
Dennis Seidenberg ($3.250m) / Andrew Ference ($2.250m)
Torey Krug ($1.696m) / Adam McQuaid ($1.567m)
GOALTENDERS
Anton Khudobin ($0.875m)
BUYOUTS
Patrick Eaves ($0.258m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $50,012,500; BONUSES: $3,700,000
CAP SPACE (16-man roster): $14,287,500
If you pick up Parise:
Parise (7m)
3rd line center (2.25m)
4th line center (1m)
13th forward (1m)
4-6 dman-probably Dougie (1.525m)
Tuukka Rask (3.5m)
To be honest, as far as next year, I see them resigning Zanon for less than you have Krug penciled in for, and Krug plays next season in Providence. So there's a marginal amount of extra cap space. So him and Hamilton would split #6/#7, coming into camp. If they sign Parise, either I don't think they need a 3rd line center anymore, unless you really want to ease Horton back in, and you are against Peverley moving back to center. Campbell is the forward I see coming back. Thomas moving wouldn't surprise me, which would leave the following team (I left out the numbers).
The 3rd/4th lines could also be
Caron-Peverley-Horton
MacDermid-Campbell-Thornton
(that's if they feel confident that Caron can handled 3rd line duty for the whole season, or if they can resign Pouliot for cheap, he could be 3rd line, and Caron goes to the 4th line instead of MacDermid)
Interesting to see that there's more than a few of us who'd like to see Seguin moved back to center.
Also, there's talk of Iginla being in play again. That could be a big fish they could land that wouldn't complicate things for them, cap-wise, long-term.
DEFENSEMEN
Zdeno Chara ($6.917m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m)
Dennis Seidenberg ($3.250m) / Dougie Hamilton ($1.525m)
Andrew Ference ($2.250m) / Adam McQuaid ($1.567m)
Mike Mottau ($0.800m) /
GOALTENDERS
Tuukka Rask ($2.500m)
Anton Khudobin ($0.875m)
BUYOUTS
Patrick Eaves ($0.258m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,891,666; BONUSES: $3,587,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,408,334
Amazing lineup, I'm all for this...would be hard to say goodbye to Timmy but in the world of professional sports you cannot fall in love with a player to the point you cannot let go, besides the idea is to trade an asset slightly before their decline not once the decline has begun and is apparent.
I think Rask is ready and the B's have enough of a guage on Khudobin's play in Providence to make a comfortably call on his ability to backup at the NHL level...management is paid to make calls like this and have to be competent enough to be right more often than wrong. Also believe that Neely and Chia have quietly made the decision that anything short of another Thomas lead Stanley Cup repeat will see Tuukka being the starter next season.
- Kelly
Currently 3rd line centre, core pk and faceoff man, leader on the team.
Internal replacement - Rich Peverly , Tyler Seguin
External replacement - UFAs - Torrey Mitchell , Jay McClement (both are just like Kelly, but about 15 points short of offensive production)
- Campbell
Currently 4th line centre, core pk, rugged and will fight for the team
Internal replacement - Zach Hamill, Jared Knight
External replacement - - UFAs - Torrey Mitchell , Jay McClement
- Daniel Paille
Currently 4th line winger, can play 3rd line wing also, blistering speed, core pk, good at checking, has some scoring skills
Internal replacement - Jordan Caron, Lane Mcdermid
External replacement - UFA Daniel Winnik, lots to list
- Greg Zanon
currently 5th, 6th D, solid shot blocker, mistake free hockey, solid body checks
Internal replacement - Doug Hamilton, Tommy Cross, Torey Krug
External replacement - Brett Clark
Trying to retain one of Kelly or Campbell will be big. Krug and Hamilton being question marks, resigning a vet like zanon or clark for one or two years also key. Forget about big FA signings unless they are willing to sign for cheap (parise, suter)
Seguin an internal replacement for Kelly?...With no disrespect to Kelly I think the Bruins have more grandiose plans for Seguin and his abilities than the role of replacing a third line center. Leading the team in scoring at 20 years of age and with an offensive skillset that no one on the team can match and you want him filling Kelly's role...WOW.
According to Capgeek, the Bruins have a cap surplus of over 1 million at year's end. When the season is over, Rolston (5mil pro rated), Mottau, Zanon, Paille, Corvo, Campbell and Kelly's contracts will have expired.
Thomas' NMC will expire as well, gaining 5 mil cap hit for the team if PC chooses to trade him. Marc Savard's LTI option was not exercized this year.
Now they'll have to bank some cash if they want to retain their UFAs. Likewise, a priority is to re-up Tuukka who is a RFA. Then they have to go to work on Seguin, Marchand who become RFAs after next season.
But there still should be a war chest to sign one high profile Free Agent. Defence or forward? Parise or Suter/Weber.
With the addition of Knight and Ryan Spooner, the future looks bright at forward. With Hamilton, and to a lesser extent, Krug, Cross and Trotman, there is cause for optimism on the backline.
Which impact free agent should our GM target in the offseason?
my wet dream would involve dealing krecji/boychuck/thomas and there 14 mill in cap hit for some tasty juicey prospects/picks
then throw that 14 mill at parise/suter with the sales pitch that their acquistion to our core basically brings us 2-3 cups over the next 5 years so its insane to sign anywhere else
the new lineup has tons of fire power still with bergeron handling the dirty work of a number 1 center and seguin getting a more comfortable role as the number 2 center. i guess we'd end up with 3 top lw's and be a little shy on rw but im thinking ive seen marchand handle rw just fine and i think parise has played it just fine too.
if horton did get healthy again our forward depth would be incredible, but even if he didnt we still got peverly signed for top 6 money as part of our cap management and he'd be ok as the 6th member of our top 6 when parise/seguin/bergeron/lucic/marchand are your other 5 guys
spooner/knight will have a very deep team to ease themselves into over the next couple years... caron fits in fine as a 3rd line grinder. pouliot has proven he can 3rd line grind just fine for us too
so parise up front and he makes krecji expendable which covers most of his cap hit and adds a prime prospect/pick to us when we deal krecji...
then on d i sort of really like the idea of keeping chara/seidenberg together and really let them develop a sixth sense of where each other will be. these guys are the key for us at playoff time and having maximum chemistry is just a real good thing.
i do think id try to let hamilton play as part of the team in a backup role... and that sort of means i want to bring in the very best possible partner for him. a guy like jay bouwmeister would work just fine too but we'd have to give up assets for him. suter only costs money and is better then bouwmeister. id pretty much break the bank for suter cause a top 4 of chara/seidenberg hamilton/suter figures to be as good a top 4 as any the nhl has seen in my memory...
theres no shortage of mobility here... a fairly impressive amount of size/snarl... and some very talented defenders too.
put a couple character guys like mcquaid/ference in support and its a real good package on the blueline. i like the various guys we got fighting for the 7 spot too. some of them have potential to make ference expendable when his contract comes up.
goaltending is the obvious spot my plan would weaken. cant lose the best goalie in hockey and be stronger afterwards... but i guess i think rask is going to be good enough. and thomas is nearing the end of the run as far as age goes. and thomas is kind of a lose cannon as far as off-ice distraction goes. so...
its real real real real hard to say we want to deal the best goalie in hockey, but having rask around to take over is real sweet if we do go this direction. and getting back a top pick/prospect would be real sweet too.
i mean imagine dealing krecji/boychuck and our first for edmonton's first if they were willing since i dont think they can really afford another last place finish and need immediate help.
we move thomas for a chance to draft subban maybe as a future goalie here... probably get a little more then just a single draft pick for him i guess if the team we deal him to plans to extend his contract.
we might end up being able to draft someone like yakubov if we were able to throw enough money at parise to make someone like krecji expedable and parise/yakubov would be way better then just krecji/boychuck/our own pick
so... i wouldnt go crazy crazy changing 6-7 players and really messing up our chemistry but bringing in a couple of the very best ufa available would be worth it to me to move even very valuable cogs like krecji/thoms/boychuck to make the room for
cup or no cup... the improvement would be worth it and i cant really imagine any cap hit that i wouldnt suffer to make it happen either. heck if it cost us 16 mill a year to get both guys signed to long term deals... it would still be worth it to me
That being said, I really like the idea of signing Suter for many reasons. But one being that it does not force you to overpay for Seids when his contract his up. Seeing what they gave to Boychuk, his demands would be in the 4mil range, rather just use the ELC savings and put it towards Suter.
i know alot of people dont read through my long posts... but i see so many people suggesting we sign parise and /or suter and just plug them into the current lineup and that just isnt going to happen
cap is a reality and even if we could somehow figure out how to do this for one single year, there are raises due soon to guys like seguin and lucic and marchand that we will want to be able to afford.
so adding someone like parise would mean having to move someone like krecji. then instead of a 5-6 mill cap increase we suffer with him replacing pouliot in our lineup,we suffer only a 1-2 mill cap increase instead and we still get an upgrade in skill/production that makes it worth while
adding someone like suter on the blueline would require letting someone like boychuck go cause theres only so much icetime/cap dollars to go around. suter would probably make 4 mill a year or more above boychuck but if we let thomas go and replace him with a normal paid backup then this increase is covered too
suddenly the only hits we have for future cap management would be the normal raises that guys like rask/seguin/lucic are due anyhow... ones we have to manage whether we sign any ufa this year or not
they say the cap is going up even if the percentage the players recieve goes down in this new cba. horton probably wont be resigned now that he is a health risk when his contract comes up. kids like spooner/knight seem like they will be contributing to our depth in a couple years at affordable price
so our top 6 is young and good and deep... and affordable even with parise added to it.. our top 4 defense could be the best thing imaginable with suter signed... and our goaltending is poised to be good enough. theres enough character/grit in the supporting 10-11 guys this i woud not be hesitant to go ahead with this risky gamble.
parise/suter are both differnce makers... theyd change our team chemistry... but i think both are winners. krecji/thomas are great current bruins but for various reasons i think we'd be a better team spending an extra 4-5 mill a year and landing these 2 premium ufa for the next 4-5-6-even7-8 years
Interesting to see that there's more than a few of us who'd like to see Seguin moved back to center.
Also, there's talk of Iginla being in play again. That could be a big fish they could land that wouldn't complicate things for them, cap-wise, long-term.
DEFENSEMEN
Zdeno Chara ($6.917m) / Johnny Boychuk ($3.367m)
Dennis Seidenberg ($3.250m) / Dougie Hamilton ($1.525m)
Andrew Ference ($2.250m) / Adam McQuaid ($1.567m)
Mike Mottau ($0.800m) /
GOALTENDERS
Tuukka Rask ($2.500m)
Anton Khudobin ($0.875m)
BUYOUTS
Patrick Eaves ($0.258m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,891,666; BONUSES: $3,587,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,408,334
That looks nice, but how are we supposed to get Iginla when Seguin, Krejci, Marchand, Hamilton and Rask are still there...
Chia will do the right things for this team. Bottom line, it all depends on the CBA, I`m not nearly as optimistic as most that next season begins on time.
)
