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A Look Ahead: 2012 NHL Entry Draft Pt. 3

View Poll Results: Would you..
Draft Grigorenko. 19 40.43%
Trade the pick. 7 14.89%
Draft a defensemen. 21 44.68%
Voters: 47. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-13-2012, 01:33 AM
  #351
Avder
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I think its much more likely we trade down. Getting into the top 5 is likely to be prohibitively expensive unless we have some kind of magic trade with someone that fetches a premium (not likely), so it is much more likely we get a trade where we exchange our first for multiple firsts or first + prospects or something.

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04-13-2012, 01:33 AM
  #352
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Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo View Post
I rather trade down. Outside the top 4-5? It becomes REALLLLLLLLLLLY muddled between around 6-15.

I've seen drafts with Reilly, Dumba, Trouba, Ceci and Reinhart all vying for around 4-15.

If someone gets enamored with a prospect, we should move down.

The problem is, quality in this draft could be the 19th pick and the coal could be the 6th pick. It's really jumbled. I rather have some more rolls to the dice.
Provided Washington doesn't move its second first rounder too far down from 15, I'm fine with moving down. Its 4 spots and another first. But there are a lot of what ifs. I'm sure their would be someone above us who would do that trade as well.

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04-13-2012, 01:37 AM
  #353
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Originally Posted by Victorious Secret View Post
Provided Washington doesn't move its second first rounder too far down from 15, I'm fine with moving down. Its 4 spots and another first. But there are a lot of what ifs. I'm sure their would be someone above us who would do that trade as well.
Never know. Islanders could.

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04-13-2012, 01:43 AM
  #354
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
My position on Teravainen has been (and still is) "He looks like a nice prospect. He'll be a good pickup, but hopefully for someone else." If we didn't have Granlund, I'd say consider picking him. However, we're already undersized up front. Teravainen is Granlund sized, with Granlund skating, but a more shoot first mentality. My greatest hope is that Button was right, and a team reaches for Teravainen (a la Zibanejad or Schiefele last year) and we get our own "Couturier."
Well.. Teräväinen is totally different type of player than Granlund. Better skater (natural talent in that), one size bigger and looks more to shoot than pass. But im not saying he's any better than Granlund just different. Both have that calmness in attacking zone that scares the crap out of me when my team plays against them.

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04-13-2012, 02:03 AM
  #355
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Honestly, i don't want us to pick him, purely because he is from Finland. I don't want this to turn into a Finnish national team. Call me racist or whatever, but look where we're at. We need some good diversity.

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04-13-2012, 02:07 AM
  #356
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Ahh can't wait for the draft, front office will have the element of surprise there all the time unless some top 5 lock player drops to us. Really I'm fine with almost anyone we're speculating right now. Stay away from Forsberg tho too risky imo.

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04-13-2012, 02:08 AM
  #357
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If the past is any marker on how Trouba will rate. Here are the top defenseman from the U.S. in the last 10 years, along with the top d picked from the US NTDP. *U.S. defenseman that played in CHL

2011- 20 Connor Murphy US NTDP
2010- 12 Cam Fowler*, 15 Derek Forbort US NTDP
2009- 16 Nick Leddy , 43 William Wrenn US NTDP
2008- 3 Zach Bogosian*, 95 David Warsofsky US NTDP
2007- 12 Ryan McDonagh, 14 Kevin Shattenkirk US NTDP
2006- 1 Erik Johnson US NTDP
2005- 4 Jack Johnson US NTDP
2004- 12 A.J. Thelen , 69 Casey Borer US NTDP
2003- 7 Ryan Suter U.S. National Team Development Program
2002- 5 Ray Whitney, N/a

It looks like the top 1st round D picks from the NTDP have been solid. If history has any bearing then hopefully Trouba will be a beast.

Connor Murphy tore his meniscus but still had 26 points in 35 games for the Sarnia Sting. I don't know if Yakupov and G bring up his point total, or if hes playing with them. Erik Johnson has still been a solid defenseman. Call him a bust or whatever, but even Aki Berg was just a solid defenseman.

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04-13-2012, 02:09 AM
  #358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Victorious Secret View Post
Honestly, i don't want us to pick him, purely because he is from Finland. I don't want this to turn into a Finnish national team. Call me racist or whatever, but look where we're at. We need some good diversity.
I know where you are coming from and I don't mind, I'm not really pullin for us to pick Teuvo or Määttä in this draft either. I was little bit on the Armia bandwagon last year too, but I think we'll come on top with Brodin. Dunno about diversity tho, look at Wings and their swedish mafia

e: And generally speaking, if you want clutch player don't put too many eggs in the finnish basket, seems to me like we really don't produce any, WC champs and all. Granlund hasn't been Granlund since he embarrased himself in the WJC, looks like he didn't take that humbling experience too well.

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04-13-2012, 02:11 AM
  #359
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Originally Posted by Foxlockbox View Post
Ahh can't wait for the draft, front office will have the element of surprise there all the time unless some top 5 lock player drops to us. Really I'm fine with almost anyone we're speculating right now. Stay away from Forsberg tho too risky imo.
Agreed. I don't see us taking Forsberg. He may be a right handed shot, but too risky. Just because he had a good WJC doesn't mean he should be a top pick. 8 goals in 43 games this year for his team? Meh, I'll pass and pick a D.

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04-13-2012, 02:21 AM
  #360
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http://thehockeywriters.com/mathew-d...spect-profile/

I'm all for this dude, looks like exactly what our team and especially our D needs. WHL toughness, defensively and offensively leveled, good skater and added with a sparkling hockey personality? Hell yeah.

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04-13-2012, 02:23 AM
  #361
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I don't see him, in any draft, making it this far down.

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04-13-2012, 02:32 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Victorious Secret View Post
I don't see him, in any draft, making it this far down.
One can hope

e: take NHL mock drafts with a grain of salt, but here is one scenario http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=79447
Actually all of the new NHL.com mock drafts had him to drop outside top 6, Kimelman as far as 11th.

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04-13-2012, 02:35 AM
  #363
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Originally Posted by Foxlockbox View Post
One can hope
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=79447

Someone has him dropping in their mock draft.

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04-13-2012, 02:40 AM
  #364
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I'm really high on Dumba. Not just because he can hit and put points up on the board, but he can actually score. Everyone keeps talking about Rielly being the gifted point scorer of the draft, but I see it here. Dumba had 15 goals and 11 assists in 62 games in his first year in the OHL. Rielly had 6 goals and 22 assists in 65 games. Dumba can actually score goals. Not seen too often from a D. If he makes it down, I'd be on him like a white woman on an nba player.

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04-13-2012, 03:20 AM
  #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Victorious Secret View Post
Honestly, i don't want us to pick him, purely because he is from Finland. I don't want this to turn into a Finnish national team. Call me racist or whatever, but look where we're at. We need some good diversity.
Ok. Weird reason, but whatever.. you have two Finnish players on your system and two playing for the club. To me that's quite far from being Finnish national team.

Quick risers usually do have more skeptics than those who have been in the top rankings longer. I do think that generally Fins are underrated in the draft system because we have been having a sort of drought of talent resent years. Thankfully that seem to be changing.

To me what you definitely dont need is a center, so Teräväinen is sort of out of the picture in that sense.

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04-13-2012, 03:31 AM
  #366
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Ok. Weird reason, but whatever.. you have two Finnish players on your system and two playing for the club. To me that's quite far from being Finnish national team.

Quick risers usually do have more skeptics than those who have been in the top rankings longer. I do think that generally Fins are underrated in the draft system because we have been having a sort of drought of talent resent years. Thankfully that seem to be changing.

To me what you definitely dont need is a center, so Teräväinen is sort of out of the picture in that sense.
Yes, but given the fact our best players have been or are Finnish, a large percentage of the points have been Finnish. Would we have really picked up Miettinen had we not already had Koivu and Backstrom (possibly throw Nummelin in)?

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04-13-2012, 04:21 AM
  #367
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Originally Posted by Victorious Secret View Post
Yes, but given the fact our best players have been or are Finnish, a large percentage of the points have been Finnish. Would we have really picked up Miettinen had we not already had Koivu and Backstrom (possibly throw Nummelin in)?
Possibly. Really hard to tell. I would imagine that the Wild management are professionals and build teams that work together well. Not make assumptions who's same nationality therefore plays well together.

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04-13-2012, 07:45 AM
  #368
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If we want to trade down (and I think it's an extremely bad idea unless someone offers us the moon) we'd still need a trading partner. If our reason to trade down would be "to get the same quality of guys later" then why would anyone pay to trade up? I don't see trading down as a realistic possibility because our prospect pool is getting to the point where it can't hold many more players. We're not working with a barren system where we just need to get a few bodies into the pool. We're full up on (non-elite) forwards, and doing fairly well on bottom 4 defensemen. If we have a high pick, we need to use it on a single highly rated player, not try finagle it into 2-3 lower rated players.

If we feel we need another first round pick (and I don't feel that's a legitimate need, especially not with how flat the second half of the first/all of the second is) we can try move up from Washington's second.

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04-13-2012, 08:58 AM
  #369
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
If we want to trade down (and I think it's an extremely bad idea unless someone offers us the moon) we'd still need a trading partner. If our reason to trade down would be "to get the same quality of guys later" then why would anyone pay to trade up? I don't see trading down as a realistic possibility because our prospect pool is getting to the point where it can't hold many more players. We're not working with a barren system where we just need to get a few bodies into the pool. We're full up on (non-elite) forwards, and doing fairly well on bottom 4 defensemen. If we have a high pick, we need to use it on a single highly rated player, not try finagle it into 2-3 lower rated players.

If we feel we need another first round pick (and I don't feel that's a legitimate need, especially not with how flat the second half of the first/all of the second is) we can try move up from Washington's second.
everyone has their opinion of their guy. what if the Wild don't like Faksa but a team like Washington does, they may offer a lot to move up and take him. If we really love a guy like Lindholm we might consider the gain worth it because we still end up with our guy while adding another asset.

but i do agree that i don't see that happening, its still a bit early tho but i do think Wild pick 7th.

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04-13-2012, 09:03 AM
  #370
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I don't see him, in any draft, making it this far down.
it al depends who Columbus picks I think, they take a Forward then I see Dumba going 6-7 if they pick Murray then its up to the islanders if they pick Rielly or Dumba

I believe we are going to have the chance to draft Dumba or Rielly with our pick and I'm more then happy with that

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04-13-2012, 09:13 AM
  #371
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everyone has their opinion of their guy. what if the Wild don't like Faksa but a team like Washington does, they may offer a lot to move up and take him. If we really love a guy like Lindholm we might consider the gain worth it because we still end up with our guy while adding another asset.

but i do agree that i don't see that happening, its still a bit early tho but i do think Wild pick 7th.
The issue with our position in this draft is, unless someone is extremely gung-ho about Faksa, they don't gain anything by moving up unless they're moving way up. In this particular draft, there needs to be the perfect storm for it to be worthwhile for Minnesota to make a pick movement, up or down. Moving down to 11 is probably too far of a hop, unless the staff really doesn't like Rielly/Trouba/Reinhart, or they really really like Ceci/later defenseman and are certain they'll still be there. The only two positions I can really see a likely trade is if a player who we don't want falls to us (and someone just below us really wants him) or these two scenarios:

Islanders: Draft goes Yakupov-Murray-Grigorenko-Islanders, and they want a defenseman not named Dumba. They might be willing to trade down to 7th for a reasonable price. We could then select Galchenyuk or Dumba.

Jets: There's a run on forwards, Yakupov-Forsberg-Grigorenko-Galchenyuk off the board, but Faksa is left. Jets (for the sake of argument) don't like Teravainen and don't want a defenseman. Carolina's a big threat to pick Faksa. We'd move down for an extra pick, and still be looking at the same defensemen.


There are a couple scenarios, but they're far more "perfect storm" than simply being options to look for. I guess a better way to phrase my position is that the Wild aren't going to explicitly try to move down in the draft. Another team needs to make it worth our while because we don't have any incentive to try that.

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04-13-2012, 09:17 AM
  #372
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it al depends who Columbus picks I think, they take a Forward then I see Dumba going 6-7 if they pick Murray then its up to the islanders if they pick Rielly or Dumba

I believe we are going to have the chance to draft Dumba or Rielly with our pick and I'm more then happy with that
Unless a team is really really sold on Rielly (and since Columbus and NYI are probably the only teams potentially interested in him above us, that seems unlikely) he'll be there for our pick. Realistically, barring trades, the only team I can possibly see selecting him is NYI, and even that seems far fetched.

I would be surprised if Dumba fell though. If Columbus picks a forward, NYI grabs Murray, and Anaheim likes Trouba/Reinhart better is the only way I see him making it to us. Stranger things have happened, but I would say it's best to assume he's off the board by our pick.

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04-13-2012, 09:35 AM
  #373
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Any SEL watchers know how Collberg has managed 0 points in 41 SEL games? That in and of itself seems like an accomplishment.

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04-13-2012, 09:35 AM
  #374
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Don't trade down. I'll bet one of the Wild's top 3-4 falls to them at #7.

My preference would be, for defensemen:

1. Murray
2. Rielly
3. Dumba
4. Trouba
5. Ceci
6. Rienhart

Admittedly I don't know much about Ceci but I could see him being above Trouba or Dumba.

If anything I'd say this is the year of the two-way defenseman. Pretty much all these guys, with the exception of Reinhart, have good to great offense and good to great defense.

So I don't buy the argument that if we draft Murray or Reilly it's getting a PP specialists in the mold of M.A. Bergeron. More likely "good Zidlicky" up to a potential #1 defenseman.

What I would look for is, since the scouts seem to all like their offensive and defensive abilities, their ability to put up points and potentially show improvement year over year, and their ability to play against higher competition.

Here are the stats, and my comments, which have the disclaimer that I haven't scouted them, just going off my OPINION:

Ryan Murray - 6' 0.5" 195
would have liked to see more offense this year, actually went backwards, but real scouts love him
2011-12
- WHL 46gp 9g 22a
- U20 6gp 0g 3a
2010-11
- WHL 70gp 6g 40a
- U18 7gp 3g 7a

Morgan Rielly - 5' 11.5" 190
had a great start before getting injured, that's why he might fall and actually end up the best D-man of the draft
2011-12
- WHL 18gp 3g 15a
2010-11
- WHL 65gp 6g 22a
- U18 7gp 2g 1a

Mathew Dumba - 5' 11.75" 173
big point totals on a bad team, year to year improvement, would like to see int'l points but he looks like a great player
2011-12
- WHL 69gp 20g 37a
- U18 (C) - 1gp 1g 1a
2010-11
- WHL 62gp 15g 11a

Jacob Trouba - 6' 2.0" 193
low point totals in USHL scare me, as well as low point totals in int'l competition
2011-12
- USHL 22gp 4g 18a
- U20 6gp 0g 2a
2010-11
- USHL 31gp 3g 4a
- U18 6gp 1g 0a

Cody Ceci - 6' 2.5" 207
don't know much about him, but he's a riser and certainly put up points this year
2011-12
- OHL 64gp 17g 43a
2010-11
- OHL 68gp 9g 25a
- U18 7gp 0g 1a

Griffin Reinhart - 6' 3.75" 197
doesn't seem to have the offense of any of the others in this group
2011-12
- WHL 58gp 12g 24a
2010-11
- WHL 45gp 6g 19a

I should also add Olli Maatta to the group:

Olli Maatta - 6' 1.5" 202
don't know much about him but he's certainly represented his country and I like he came over to NA this year
2011-12
- OHL 58gp 5g 27a
- U20 7gp 0g 3a
2010-11
- Finland 23gp 1g 5a
- U20 10gp 0g 1a
- U18 16gp 2g 6a

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04-13-2012, 09:42 AM
  #375
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Couple points to note:

Ceci has good size, but is apparently allergic to physical play. If he had developed a bit of a mean streak, he'd be talked about as a top 5 pick instead of fringe top 10.


Reinhart is very slightly less adverse to the physical game, but still doesn't play with an edge. Despite that, he has a lot of promise and could develop into the draft's best d-man, so he's still looked at as a potential top 5, definite top 10 pick. While his point totals haven't necessarily shown it (though they did improve) he has really come along insofar as developing an offensive game. He's unlikely to ever see the offensive end the way a guy like Rielly does, but he's not a total liability in that regard either.

Trouba didn't put up any international competition numbers, but many considered him to be one of the best players on that unfortunate US WJC team.

Dumba's two big knocks are size (which we've seen from players like Kronwall doesn't have to be a big deal) and positioning (he gives up his position to make the big hit).

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