WEll-IF we "succeed" --beat PHX in the WC quarter-final series; beat NASH or DET in the WC semi-final (since STL will lose to SJ and VAN beats L.A. then 1 plays 7 and the 4 v5 winner plays the #6 --since we knocked out the #3 PHX) ---THEN win the WC in the Final against VAN ---THEN we DROP from 321 in the draft to 29 or 30th (the latter if we win the Cup).
NOW -I know most will prefer to get to the Cup Final and draft later at 29 or 30 ---but it really will effect our draft options ...
Most would say that we need to draft a goalie with "elite" potential in round one...3 goalies are expected to be drafted in round one--the question is in which order and where in the round...
Looking at Craig Button's Top 60 for March--he has Malcom Subban first off the board at #17 ,Andrei Vasilevski going at #20 and Oscar Dansk going at #28....
So there is a chance we will miss on all 3 of the 1st round rated goalies for this draft ---further it pushes back our 2nd rounder from #51 to #59 or #60 and again we could miss on some interesting probably taken earlier 2nd round goalies unless we grabbed one of them earlier thn we had grouped them by making them our first rounder...
FURTHER-IF we had 1 "alternative" to a goalie that we might take IF he still was on the board at #21 (and instead "hope" to still grab a good goalie prospect at #51 ) --that strategy might also get closed off by our "success"...
Now there are some scouts who insist that the goalie ratings for round one should be Dansk,Vasilevski,Subban instead of Button's Subban,Vasilevski ,Dansk --but I can see maybe only DANSK still there at 29 or 30 --surely Subban and Vasilevski will be both gone by no later than 22--but some team might still draft Dansk between 22-28--so we have no assurance of getting a consensus top 3 goalie from this draft crop if we "succed" to the NHL Final...
AS for round #2 : Button has only 1 goalie going in the round (JON Gillies at #50) --BUT again there are differences of opinion--- Central Scouting rates Gillies as only the 6th best NA goalie (not even counting euros) ...the big "riser " for Central Scouting was big Anthony Stolarz 6'5,200 of Corpus Cristi (NAHL) who went from 21st ast mid-term to 4th best NA goalie in their Final rankings...BUT even though i prefer big goalies like the 6'5 Stolarz and Gillies --my own "HUNCH" is that
the 3rd ranked euro goalie by Central Scouting (Joonas Krorpisalo,6'2.5 183) and the 3rd ranked NA goalie (Jake Paterson,Saginaw,OHL) will be the better ranking order choces in round #2....They may turn out even better as NHL pros than any of the consensus top 3 for round #1...WE might get Korpisalo or Paterson at #51--but I doubt either is still there at the #59 or #60----thus we might be faced with MAYBE
a Gillies or a Stolarz remaining if we wait that long to take a goalie---so instead of
a top 3 goalie from te draft or even a top 4or 5 -if I am correct about Korpisalo and Paterson being those--- we are down to possibly only 6th or 7th best goalie...there is no guarantee that 6th or 7th taken goalie from a draft willbe way worse than the 5 or 6 goalies taken ahead of him--but the odds are probably not that good for that will not happen and that instead we get lucky and our later goalie pick surpasses the others ranked ahead of him by the conensus ...
ALSO--as I said there is a chance that a non-goalie we like might stillbe there on the board at #21 AND that IF we drafted #51 we might still get the 4th or 5th rated goalie on our list and be satisfied with the combined effect of drafting that way...
BUT if we don't have #21 --that guy is probably off the board by #29-30--so that strategy goes out the window..
So here is my PREFERENCE depending on i) whether we still have the #21 or ii) not.
i) we draft at #21:
TAKE (C) TOMAS HERTL if still on the board --in my opinion as good as any forward in this draft except Yakupov for projectable NHL success in the top six of a team...
IF HERTL is off the board by #21--take either Subban or Vasilevski if one or both still on the board...but if both are off the board--TRADE THE PICK DOWN if possible for an early 30's pick plus another 2nd rounder or a 3rd and a 4th in 2013 (remember we lose our 2nd and 3rd in 3013 for the Oduya trade) ...WITH the early 2nd rounder take Korpisalo or Paterson ,then at #51 if the one we diod not take is still there--take him too! IF not, take Gillies or Stolarz with that pick--thus we get 2 goalies in round 2..IF we took Subban or Vasilevski at #21 --we still could get Korpisalo or Paterson at #51 too--but if not then the next best Gillies or Stolarz...and so that gets us goalies in both round one and round two...
IF we did get HERTL at #21--then take the best goalie on our ranking list at #51 (if we are lucky maybe korpisalo or Paterson are still there,if not take a risk on Gilies or Stolarz the big 6'5 goalie types...
ii) we draft at #29 or 30 (having made the Cup Final or winning the whole shebang and drafting 30th ).
IN this case --if Dansk is still there possibly take him OR trade down a few spots if some team really wants him and I'd "settle" for krpisalo or Paterson ...
The problem with DANSK is that scouts who like his talent/ability and say when he is "on" he is very very good and so they project his eventual upside level as "elite" --the PROBLEM is that despite the size,athleticism,and talent, HE is inconsistent....whereas KORPISALO has been a model of consistent excellence at every level over the last 3 years,and with Paterson you can see the excellent technical positioning and quick movement like a Jonathan quick ---the one criticism was his glove --but that looks to be improving and so you can project really good final upside ...I just have good hunches about Korpisalo and Paterson..
I am unsure if Dansk ever conquiers his great,not so great bouts of inconsistency -not so much game to game but year over year...BUT if some team wants to risk on his talent -he has trade value -we move down a few spots and still get a good one in Korpisalo or Paterson..
THUS either way -these are hopefully the combined scenarios for rounds 1 and 2 for Chicago:
A. drafting 21st nd 51st
1. HERTL (C) + either Korpisalo or Paterson.
OR
2. SUBBAN or VASILEVSKI + a) Korpisalo or Paterson or if not possible then b) Gillies or Stolarz (a 2 goalie strategy).
OR
B. drafting 29-30 or trading it down 4-5 spots and drafting 59-60:
3. KORPISALO or PATERSON-+ Gillies or Stolarz + extra picks in 2013 (2nd or a #3+#4)
I think I would be most happy with A1. but if not then A.2 --but if neither of those are possible because either all 3 of Hertl,Subban and Vasilevski are off the board by #21 or we only draft at #29-30 --then I'll "settle" for B3.
I tried to read it. Kind of got through it..well most of it.
I think he's saying we pick #21 unless we get to the WCF- and we should consider a goaltender with that pick. In that case I agree.
Trouble with goalies is they usually take years to develop. Even the ones who develop well aren't a sure thing. Salak was supposedly this stud Swedish goalie and look at him now.
Trouble with goalies is they usually take years to develop. Even the ones who develop well aren't a sure thing. Salak was supposedly this stud Swedish goalie and look at him now.
It's much better to trade for one or sign a FA.
Yeah but if you don't draft a good one ever, they'll never come. So even if you draft a good one now and it doesn't help for 4 years...in 4 years you'll be glad that you did.
Salak was a good prospect, but remember Dale Tallon gave him up for practically nothing. He probably knew something the Hawks didn't. Or something that us Hawk fans didn't...whatever.
In the end, the biggest reason I'm ok with drafting a goaltender, is that we are pretty solid everywhere else in our system. I was dead set against it last year in the draft...but have changed my tune a bit.
If it is "we need better goaltending so draft a goalie in the 1st"... I'm against it. Goalies are hard to predict and this goalie won't help us in the next 3-5 years
