I don't get why people are calling into local radio and thinking we should trade hall. Somehow he is expendable? Man, Edmonton is quickly forgetting what depth is.
Last edited by DousedInOil: 04-12-2012 at 10:46 AM.
I don't get why people are calling into local radio and thinking we should trade hall. Somehow he is expendable? Man, Edmoton is quickly forgetting what depth is.
Wow nicely done! I was amazed at how much work you had done as I scrolled down.
I've only looked at Yakupov and Grig so far but I'm interested in reading through the rest when I'm able.
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Originally Posted by Tyrolean
There's going to be players equal and perhaps better than #1. You don't know who exactly but there always is. Hope the Oilers find a gem after #1.
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Originally Posted by MoneyGuy
Dousedinoil is my hero, and I'm not easily impressed.
Several of those players named the Oilers as their favourite team.
Thanks guys! I hope you all enjoy the read. I spent more time than I would like to admit working on this thing. If anyone has an interviews or anything they would like adde for a certain player please post it and I can add to the links above.
This is one of the best sources on the draft out there. Incredibly comprehensive, i really enjoyed reading this. I like the fact that you cite so many sources, post any and all key info, and other avaliable rankings.
I think the Oilers have to take Yakupov, and it would certainly be interesting to see if Galchenyuk is a possibility to acquire. Tavares and Gagner are bff's so maybe a Gagner (maybe +Teubert) for NYI 1st would make sense. I'm not crazy about moving Gagner, but this might make sense for both teams. Most on HFboards think Gagner is too little, but i'd bet NY considers it. With Strome coming up though, i think they would want a defenseman, so i doubt they deal the pick.
I don't get why people are calling into local radio and thinking we should trade hall. Somehow he is expendable? Man, Edmonton is quickly forgetting what depth is.
Although Gagner isn't at the same level, it seems to me since drafting Hopkins is making us want to move him for little to no good reason as well.
My son played against Henrik Samuelsson at the Quebec Pee Wee tournament. Kid was a dirty player, got thrown out of the game for stomping on a player who had fallen with his skates. Curtis Joseph's kid played on that team as well.
Hey Everyone! I can't believe that it has already been an entire year since the 2012 NHL Draft in Pittsburgh. I hope that this draft guide lives up to expectations this year! This guide is just something that I like to do for myself to educate myself on the 50 best prospects eligible for the draft. I'm not here to convince anyone that a certain player is better than another prospect. Please feel free to come up with your own opinions and challenge your fellow board members to get the conversation going! I like to think of this as more of a compilation of information that will bring posters that don't have a chance to watch minor hockey a better understanding of this years top prospects. This is a hell of a draft year, so lets get started with an overview.
With the NHL lockout this year, the standings are significantly different then last year. Several teams that were in the playoffs last year are now drafting in the top 10, while the same is true for teams that have been stuck in the basement. Lets take a look at the Montreal Canadiens for example. Montreal selected Alex Galchenyuk 3rd overall last year and finished at the top of their division. It will be interesting to see where teams view themselves and how it will reflect their draft decisions. Will they remain patient because of one good/bad season or decide that they have finally turned the corner. The Edmonton Oilers are hoping that they fall in the latter but does that mean that they will move their pick come June 30th?
I'm really excited for this draft due to the high end talent and the depth of the 1st and second rounds. This is easily the best draft we have seen in a long time. I would compare the top of this draft to 2006 with the resemblances being uncanny. It is likely that a defenceman will go first overall while numerous franchise changing centers selected right after. However, that is where the comparison to 2006 ends. The rest of the first and second round have drawn comparisons to the infamous 2003 draft. I could see potential first line players or top pairing defencemen drafted late in the first round. The second round will also help separate this draft from years previous. Most years, I can slide some prospects into my top 50 that are "long shots" into making the NHL because of the lack of quality prospects. However, in 2013 I've had problems just trying to keep several can't miss prospects outside my top 50. You know that we have a good draft year when prospects like Connor Hurley, Hudson Fasching, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jimmy Lodge, Keaton Thompson, Thomas Vannelli, Anthony Duclair, Pavel Buchnevich, and John Hayden fail to crack the top 50. Although it is unlikely that it will have the same impact as 2003, this is the closest a draft has come to matching the 2003 pedigree. The 2013 draft is full of interesting prospects and high scoring forwards.
How then, how does this draft breakdown? Well, it appears that their is a general consensus that the first player in this years draft is Seth Jones. That is where my first black line starts separating players. If a team is already stacked on defense, a guy like Nathan MacKinnon or Jonathan Drouin could potentially go first overall. Having said that, I think a team would be very unwise to pass on a generational talent like Seth Jones . After Jones, my next thick black line comes after the top 8. Aleksander Barkov, Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan, Darnell Nurse and Valeri Nichushkin have really separated themselves from the rest of the draft. In previous years, they could have gone first overall if it wasn't for the ridiculous amount of talent in 2013. After that, I think their is another group of players of guys that will go between 9 and 15. These are players that I would normally say are "top 10" players in their draft year. Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, Ryan Pulock, Hunter Shinkaruk, Josh Morrissey, Curtis Lazar, and Bo Horvat are all deserving of this title. These are guys that aren't as complete as the other players mentioned but could turn out to be the best player in the draft. This isn't to say that a player like Anthony Mantha or Alexander Wennberg for example, couldn't surpass any of these guys on my list. Anyone from the 15-25 range could go inside the top 10 if a team liked that player enough. That leads me to my next and final thick black line- around 40. These are all players that I believe could be taken in the first round.
Scouting Philosophy & Disclaimers
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Well first thing I should clarify is that I am not a professional scout. It's not like some team is paying me to fly around and see everyone live. I am just an avid Edmonton Oilers fan that watches a lot of live streams and tries to make it out to the Oil Kings games as often as possible. I think I have a pretty good grasp on WHL players and the CHL in general. Having said that, its hard to see a lot of games overseas. Most of my viewings have been international tournaments but I do factor in regular season games and try to incorporate other scouts opinions for European and Russian leagues.
1. Comparisons: Ever year I give what I think are fair comparisons for draft eligible players. Now, just because a guy models his game after someone, doesn't mean that he is a carbon copy. I could say that someone players like the great "Sidney Crosby" I could have someone ranked in the second round that plays like a "Sidney Crosby" but it doesn't mean that he is going to as good as Crosby is. Likewise, I could compare someone that is very unexciting like "Mike Brown" but it doesn't mean that the player is confined to a fourth line role. Still, it gives the average fan a very broad look of what style of player you are looking at. Also, just because one aspect is similar between players, doesn't mean that everything is similar between players. If you make a comparison to a guy like Patrick O'Sullivan, doesn't mean that he is going to have the same off ice issues that O'Sullivan has.
2. Projections: I tend to focus on how good a player is projected to be in a few years time rather than how good they are right now. I would rather draft a player that has shown proven in their development rather than a player that has peaked physically and won't be able to translate their game to the NHL level. Although this might seem like a simple point, it one that is often overlooked. Scouts tend to fall in love with those gritty players that have size and toughness but lack NHL skill. If I think two players are similar, I take the player that has better offensive instincts. A player can learn defense a lot easier than they can learn offense. Not that its easy to learn defense but I would rather have a guy that I have to hold back rather than a kid I have to light a fire under.
3. Understanding Fallacies: One major fallacy that scouts have is basing their decisions on prior drafts and rankings. They say something like "Nikita Filatov was drafted 6th overall and didn't pan out. No way I take a Russian in the top 10" yet other highly touted Russian have been taken inside the top like like Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Ilya Kovalchuck. On the flip side, lots of non-Russian players have busted. Yes, Russians can go back to Russia but saying they are a bust because they are Russian is just simply not true. Each player needs to be evaluated based on their own individual skill set.
4. Best Player Available: I always found this to be a term that people use in false dilemmas. Fans try and polarize BPA from need. Rather, team dynamics, depth charts systems, mentors, etc all play important parts of a kids development. Some players play better under different situations. Now clearly, you don't pass on a guy you feel is on a completely different level. I would be furious if we passed on Evgeni Malkin for Cam Barker. Clearly Malkin is the better player. A player like Max Domi might be the best player left on the board, but if a team like Edmonton is selecting they just simply don't have anymore room for a small skilled forward in their top 6. Everyone has a different idea of what BPA means but at the end of the day, player development and the team drafting them will play a big part in the kids career.
5. Playoffs: One of the biggest mistakes scouts make is the emphasis on playoffs. I'm not saying that they aren't a good measuring stick but they aren't the be all end all. The fact is many players are taken high in their draft year to teams that are at the bottom of the league. I mean look at Edmonton, we have a ton of talent that hasn't made the playoffs. Would you take Zack Kassian over Taylor Hall because he is going to the playoffs? Obviously not. Also, the sample size of playoff games for most teams is incredibly small. What if the team they played just doesn't match up well against the other team? I think scouts are often late to the show for some players (fail to watch them all year) and their basis is entirely on playoff production.
I just don't see Edmonton having a package capable of getting a top 5 pick. I mean Jeff Carter is going to a pick in the 15-30 range so Gagner isn't getting anything higher IMHO. Maybe if a team really likes Gagner and Paajarvi we could package them to get another top 10 pick.
You mean Carter only returned a mid 1st, or a player of Carter's caliber will be avaliable in that range? If it's the former, i'd argue that the 1st wasn't the principle asset in the Carter deal. I don't think NYI does it, but i could see why they would covet Gagner. For all of the Gagner hate on here, there is only 3 centers (O'Reilly, Stepan, and Henrique) this year, who weren't the first center taken in their draft year (i.e. Stamkos, Tavares, Seguin, Hopkins), to be both younger and higher scoring that Gagner. And Stepan/Henrique had very similar stats to Gagner. I think Gagner is worth a top 10 pick for sure, or else keep him.
The Draft Thread isn't quite at 1000 posts, but I figured this will basically become general draft talk, and the OP is more up-to-date.
Here are the last few posts in the last thread:
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Originally Posted by nexttothemoon
I don't want them to trade it... but I certainly get the feeling as well that they are in "trade mode" with that pick... and it's likely not just the usual "we'll listen to any offers" type comments that every GM makes either.
I think the Oilers have a pretty good idea right now (Stu has said they've been watching him intensely all year... as I'm sure almost every NHL scout has) whether or not Yakupov fits with the core of this rebuild going forward.
If I had to just go with my gut feel I would say the Oilers want to parlay that pick into getting back 2 (or more) assets that might fill more holes than just Yakupov coming in. This certainly gives them that flexibility and I think they know they aren't a team that can acquire top UFA talent or get back solid pieces in trades without giving up more than they get.
This is a golden asset staring them in the face and I think they are going to be damn tempted to deal it. That asset doesn't have any connections to Edmonton yet... the fans won't crucify them for trading it away like they would if they traded Hall/Eberle/RNH to fill multiple holes in the roster.
Would I trade Yakupov away? With the type of potential and dynamic play that he'll bring to that roster... no damn way.
I just think the Oilers management are likely thinking very differently. Of course if a decent offer doesn't come along then they'll keep the pick and take him as they aren't that stupid (hopefully) to draft an obviously lesser player... but I have a feeling there WILL be a deal from another team that they accept.
Yakupov is very likely the only player in this draft that has "franchise player" tattooed on his head... whether he reaches that potential is to be seen but some team out there will want to take a gamble on that chance... and that won't be the Oilers... I'm betting they'll take the less risky option and deal that pick for safer and more proven players.
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Originally Posted by Scoobs
If Tambellini wants to get fired he'll trade the pick. That's a huge risk to take. Even if you take Yakupov and he doesn't pan out, there's nothing you can really do. But if you trade the pick and he turns into a franchise player and you don't win the trade? You don't normally "win" when you trade away a top pick.
That would be a quick ticket out of Edmonton.
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Originally Posted by Oilbleeder
Your probably right, but I'm not sure we'll be able to get the value coming back.
I mean, if we're trading the 1st overall pick, we should expect a guy with the ability of Pietrangelo coming back.
The problem is, unless there is friction between the organization and the player, teams don't really trade those types of players.
So unless they are thinking of getting a talented young D-man with a few deficiencies in his game (Subban), then I'm not sure it's possible to get fair value on trading the 1st overall.
I still think this is more "we'll listen to offers, but I doubt we trade the pick" type business here.
Or I hope it is.
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Originally Posted by Spawn
Tambo has said that each of the last two years, but I never got the sense he was really considering trading it. Every time I've heard him talk since they've won the lottery now has been about how there are all sorts of options for them to make a move and add a piece while still getting a good prospect.
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Originally Posted by Oilbleeder
Imo, stuff like that could mean guys like MPS/Hemsky being on the block.
Tambo would have to have Paul Holmgren type balls of steel to trade down from Yakupov to get Murray + 2nd pairing D-man prospect, and that's if he absolutely positively trusts his pro-scouts to hit a HR like he trusts Stu. (these guys have been less than stellar, which would be understatement)
He has a ton of options, but I severely doubt he trades Yakupov(or the pick). The guy has a VERY good chance of being a perennial all-star and a good chance at being a 40g scorer.
Instead, my belief would be he's seriously contemplating trading MPS.
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If you are offended by this post, it's probably because you're ugly.
I don't get why people are calling into local radio and thinking we should trade hall. Somehow he is expendable? Man, Edmonton is quickly forgetting what depth is.
if we trade Hall, I will be sick. If we could somehow, in some fashion trade Gagner + for Galchenyuk, I would be down with that.
Although Gagner isn't at the same level, it seems to me since drafting Hopkins is making us want to move him for little to no good reason as well.
I think we can put Parjaavi in that same boat. Whats wrong with him being your 3rd LW? Didn't he play 3rd LW as a rookie and pop in 15 goals and reasonable in his own end. He may not turn into a 20-25 goal guy and that's ok we seem to have enough fire power. Its not like hes gonna demand a huge slalary, groom him to be a part of effective third line that PKs. I know everyone is gonna say hes gotta be more physical and I agree but there a lot of effective teams that aren't overly physical(ie Detroit). Just some of my thoughts since all the proposals have been thrown out there since we won.
But, I think I have to disagree with you on Gagner. We basically have 4 (RNH, Eberle, Hemsky, Gagner) similar type of player in the top 6. None of them are overly physical and play a more ceberal game. The problem is and some will disagree but I believe he is the worst of them. Many will say Hemsky but I disagree. I just believe we need more of a balance in the top 6. I would preferably like a bigger and stronger C that will balance RNH more effectively.
I have been chatting with a bunch of non oiler fans, and they've mentioned a burke like deal where we go after both Sarnia boys...
What would it take in your mind or if its even a possibilty?
Hall Gagner Plante to T.O or NYI
5th overall Gardiner plus
4th overall Hamonic 2nd rd 2012
Thoughts? am I dreaming?
lineup of:
Harti RNH Ebs
Hemsky Galy Yak
Smid Petry
Schultz Hamonic
Whitney (signed J. Schultz
Dreaming...
I'm sorry, I don't usually do this but that is just awful. You are way beyond dreaming to think that the Oilers would do either of those trades. Just stupid, Hall alone wouldn't be moved for either of those deals.
Oilers won't move Hall or Eberle or RNH. They are established as the core moving forward. The only huge asset that they will move is this #1 pick which has monumental value right now.
I think there is at least one GM out there that will literally pay the moon for that pick. He could be the next Bure for crying out loud. No guarantees of course... but what if he does become that good? There will be a GM out there that will take a calculated risk that he WILL be that good.
I'm not sure how it will happen... maybe even a 3 way deal or even a 4 way deal ... but I'm betting the Oilers trade that pick because they won't be able to resist the tremendous offer they will get in return.
My guess is 2 of the following 3 will be received by the Oilers:
A) a top dman
B) a solid #2 centre
C) a very good goalie
The Oilers are going to go with quantity for quality (although they'll get solid players in return no doubt). I just have a gut feeling a team out there will want that "Franchise Player" that Yakupov may bring... and the Oilers will see that as expendable as they already have 3 franchise players... filling holes and adding depth is what they now want to focus on and this will give them the opportunity that they can't turn down.
This is of course a dangerous situation because there is a high chance of being burned if Yakupov turns into a multi-50 goal scorer but I'm also convinced the Oilers will take the "2 in the hand" mentality over the "1 in the bush". This management group isn't one to take risks and I have a strong feeling if a solid looking offer containing established NHL players is handed to them... they'll take it.
I also have a gut feeling Columbus ends up with the #1 pick again somehow... and TO will make some sort of huge move also which will twist up the top of the draft order as well.
Should be a very interesting draft as I can definitely see some big trades and jggling of the draft order this year... more than in years past.
Oilers won't move Hall or Eberle or RNH. They are established as the core moving forward. The only huge asset that they will move is this #1 pick which has monumental value right now.
I think there is at least one GM out there that will literally pay the moon for that pick. He could be the next Bure for crying out loud. No guarantees of course... but what if he does become that good? There will be a GM out there that will take a calculated risk that he WILL be that good.
I'm not sure how it will happen... maybe even a 3 way deal or even a 4 way deal ... but I'm betting the Oilers trade that pick because they won't be able to resist the tremendous offer they will get in return.
My guess is 2 of the following 3 will be received by the Oilers:
A) a top dman
B) a solid #2 centre
C) a very good goalie
The Oilers are going to go with quantity for quality (although they'll get solid players in return no doubt). I just have a gut feeling a team out there will want that "Franchise Player" that Yakupov may bring... and the Oilers will see that as expendable as they already have 3 franchise players... filling holes and adding depth is what they now want to focus on and this will give them the opportunity that they can't turn down.
This is of course a dangerous situation because there is a high chance of being burned if Yakupov turns into a multi-50 goal scorer but I'm also convinced the Oilers will take the "2 in the hand" mentality over the "1 in the bush". This management group isn't one to take risks and I have a strong feeling if a solid looking offer containing established NHL players is handed to them... they'll take it.
I also have a gut feeling Columbus ends up with the #1 pick again somehow... and TO will make some sort of huge move also which will twist up the top of the draft order as well.
Should be a very interesting draft as I can definitely see some big trades and jggling of the draft order this year... more than in years past.
I don't think any GM will offer anything close to what it would take to trade the #1. Of course if there is pressure off a playoff round loss then they might inquire but from their point of view trading proven for a prospect is ludicrous.
To get the Oilers listening IMO. It would have to set the Oilers up for the next 7+ years.
I don't think the Oilers place as much value on a goalie unless it's someone like Carey Price, but honestly Devan Dubnyk was pretty solid this year especially down the stretch, his numbers are more comparable to most young goalies. He earned a chance at the no.1 spot for next season.
I can see Burke trading his pick (no.5) + Reimer for Rick Nash.
To get the Oilers listening IMO. It would have to set the Oilers up for the next 7+ years.
I don't think the Oilers place as much value on a goalie unless it's someone like Carey Price, but honestly Devan Dubnyk was pretty solid this year especially down the stretch, his numbers are more comparable to most young goalies. He earned a chance at the no.1 spot for next season.
I can see Burke trading his pick (no.5) + Reimer for Rick Nash.
The thing I think some people aren't quite getting... I mean they know that Yakupov is above everyone in this draft (and not by a small amount)... but Yakupov has the potential to be an explosively good talent. That's the kind of player that not only gets butts in seats and sells tickets but it also gets fans excited. He has the potential to be a "franchise saver". There is certainly no one else in this draft with THAT type of ability even if others may be close in talent.
Think about that for a moment and think what teams may be in the market for that kind of marquee player.
Again, I personally wouldn't trade the pick but I have a feeling there will be a deal too good to pass up (not on the Lindros scale but a couple notches down from that).
It could be just irrational exuberance on my part to think that, but I just get that feeling that at least 1 management group from all the teams that missed the playoffs (plus from those teams that make early exits in the playoffs)... will roll the dice and make a huge offer.
Yakupov has injury concerns but we'll see how the Combine goes and all the interviews. If he comes through that with flying colours it's going to be interesting (and surprising) seeing what teams take a stab at trying to acquire him.
Just as an example:
Columbus trades Nash to TO for Gardiner and 5th overall pick.
Columbus trades Gardiner, Johansen and #5 pick (or Columbus keeps that pick and sends a 2nd rounder to the Oilers) to Edmonton for the #1 pick.
TO ends up with Nash... who gives them the power winger they REALLY want.
Columbus ends up with #1 and #2 (and possibly even the # 5 pick as well) ... getting them two (or 3) premier prospects... one being Yakupov who's a potential "franchise saver".
Oilers end up with Gardiner and Johansen, filling 2 holes... plus (possibly the #5 pick or an early 2nd rounder). They can't turn that deal down.
Now does that sequence make sense? Well maybe you throw in some extra bits and pieces to equalize but I think the core is there to make a scenario similar to that happen. In fact I'd bet something like that WILL happen this year as the stars are all aligned.
Oilers are very open to trading the pick to fill multiple holes, Toronto desperately wants to make a move to finally push them over the hump and Columbus HAS to do something to instil some hope for the future to save that franchise which is quickly spiralling down the tubes.
Last edited by nexttothemoon: 04-13-2012 at 06:24 AM.
Like before, absolutely fantastic read this year too...
...But... one thing that seemed a bit weird is that you said Teräväinen had "weak" numbers. His numbers are absolutely fantastic for a player that age. Granlund's stats shouldn't be used as a "measuring stick".
Given that you barely mentioned that Collberg had 0 points in 41 GP it seems a bit unfair.
