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Red Wings Prospects Tracker - Part III - Revenge of the Prospects

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Old
04-13-2012, 01:51 PM
  #26
jaster
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jaster's Top-15

1. Smith
2. Nyquist
3. Jarnkrok
4. Jurco
5. Ouellet
6. Tatar
7. Sheahan
8. Mrazek
9. Jensen
10. Tvrdon
11. Andersson
12. Backman
13. Marchenko
14. Sproul
15. Pulkkinen

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04-13-2012, 01:57 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaster View Post
jaster's Top-15

1. Smith
2. Nyquist
3. Jarnkrok
4. Jurco
5. Ouellet
6. Tatar
7. Sheahan
8. Mrazek
9. Jensen
10. Tvrdon
11. Andersson
12. Backman
13. Marchenko
14. Sproul
15. Pulkkinen
I was going to post my own, but I'm throwing my support behind this...I like it.

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Old
04-13-2012, 01:58 PM
  #28
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Wasn't there talk that he was seen as a first round talent in some circles, but injuries and the KHL scared teams off?
Wouldn't surprise me. Some called him the best Russian defenseman in the draft. I guess he's really strong, skates well, pretty good hockey sense. And from what I remember, he wanted to come to North America

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04-13-2012, 07:23 PM
  #29
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Sarcastro's definitive prospect list:
Each prospect is 100% guaranteed to live up to these rankings.
(not a guarantee)

1. Smith - NHL-ready and looks like he's ready to be an impact player. Hoping for a Seabrook-type player, might be more of a Jack Johnson or Bogosian player (plenty of offense but lousy defensively).
2. Nyquist - NHL-ready and looks like he could develop into a 60-point player.
3. Jurco - not NHL-ready but looks like he could be a 40 goal scorer. Big body, speed, hands, and there are positive reports about his developing two-way ability. Potential gets him this high. They desperately need this guy to pan out.
4. Tatar - NHL-ready but his role is cloudy. Can he be a top 6 player? Is he more of a Cleary/Hudler 3rd line supplemental guy? If he can't be a big scorer, can he turn himself into a handsier, not-as-fast Helm?
5. Mrazek - heading to the AHL and we'll know a lot more about him a few months into next season. Talented but not very big. Can he get it done in Lundqvist / Thomas / Brodeur fashion?
6. Jarnkrok - a long way from NHL-ready and has serious physical challenges to getting there. Skill and speed are world-class but due to his small and thin frame, he seems to be hurt all the time. He'd be ranked in the top 3 if I could have any confidence that he can hold up physically in the NHL. Or even the AHL.
7. Ouellet - looks like he's on his way to being a solid if unspectacular defenseman.
8. Sheahan - not a guy I'm high on, obviously. Big and seems to be able to skate, but will he ever score as a pro? Some see Keith Primeau, I worry he's more like Matt Ellis. We'll see.
9. Pulkkinen - another guy I'm not buying. From all reports, hands are great but small frame and slow footspeed will probably make him a tweener who can light up Europe and the AHL like crazy but can't get any room in the NHL. We'll see.
10. Sproul - he's a project, but he's got a great shot and great size and if his skating and zone coverage come along, he could be a solid PP triggerman.
11. Tvrdon - I like the look of this guy. Big, fast, good hands, but injuries are worrisome. Hopefully he puts that behind him and forms a 1-2 punch with Jurco.
12. Jensen - I haven't seen him play, so this is a total flier for me. But he did put up 32 points as a sophomore at St Cloud State, he's got good size and reportedly good wheels, and he shoots righty. That gives him a pretty good shot at making it.
13. Almqvist - I don't particularly buy this guy based on his size and skating, but it's possible he could end up developing into a Rafalski type of player. If they're willing to wait.
14. Lashoff - I thought he'd have shown more by now, but apparently he still has some raw skill and needs to get on the ice more to develop it.
15. Andersson - big and NHL-ready. Ready to do what, I don't know. But he can be a warm body in an NHL lineup and not kill you, so there's that.
--------
The rest of these guys are in the "longshot, who the hell knows" category, so I'll list the ones I find most interesting:
Nedomlel - supposedly he was a big thug-type stay at home and kick your ass type of guy, but he put up 46 points this year. And an ugly -35. I haven't seen him and there's not much info on him, but 6'4 and 46 points from a guy that beats people up, that's worth keeping an eye on.
Backman - no idea. European dudes on this forum seem to like him, we'll see.
Marchenko - see Backman. I'm not buying his playoff points this year as they're in the mini-KHL. We'll see.
Quine - the scouts like this guy, smallish with hands and speed. Maybe he puts up 100+ points next year and really takes off. We'll see.

No, I didn't forget these guys - I just really don't like them as prospects:
McCollum
Ferraro
Raedeke
Pare
Nicastro
Axelsson
Macek
Fournier
Cayer
Coetzee

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Old
04-13-2012, 09:27 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by mindfly View Post
If he wasn't busy tearing it up in the SEL and in it's playoffs and didn't have a contract with Brynäs he could have been in the lineup instead of nyquist and you wouldn't say he was a worse player, he's a center as well, i value centers higher.

Oh and also just a little bonus, he's a right handed shot which this teams desperately needs.
Jarnkrok could very well be that good but Nyquist is a first year pro playing in the playoffs for the wings and had an impressive stint of 7 points in 7 games earlier. Jarnkrok is definitely a close number 3 and could easily become the better of the 2, but Nyquist has proven to be a capable NHLer.

Thats the only reason I cant rate him higher

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Old
04-13-2012, 09:34 PM
  #31
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Aubry will be the big mover next season. He's quietly having a very strong rookie season. Expect an Andersson type breakout next season, but with about 30 points instead of 50.

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Old
04-13-2012, 09:41 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by zecke26 View Post
i'm not objective here since i think backman will be a cornerstone of the wings future and their unsung hero, but almqvist really didn't take the next step this past season. he probably should have made the jump across the ocean last summer. but we'll see. almqvist's hockey sense is something special and even though his chances don't look good at the moment, i think there's still a bit hope he can get back on track and break out. he's boom or bust pretty much, but the potential is still there.

that being said, if i'd have the choice, i'd take backman without any hesitation.
Not really a knock on Almqvist I think, and I still like his ceiling. But simply put, Backman was better than Almqvist this season and he's also younger.

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Old
04-14-2012, 09:12 AM
  #33
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Sarcastro's definitive prospect list:
Each prospect is 100% guaranteed to live up to these rankings.
(not a guarantee)


Agree with almost all of your reasoning. good job. I don't think Almquist is top 15 great hockey sense or not, and am not as high as others on Andersson either.

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04-14-2012, 11:05 AM
  #34
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Re: Sarcastro's list and Pulkkinen's "small frame", 5' 10"-11" and 198 pounds should be enough for NHL since there are smaller players than that making a living in the NHL. As for slow footspeed, it's more an issue with technique, his legs are moving fast but the rest of the body isn't keeping up.

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Old
04-14-2012, 11:11 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Sarcastro's definitive prospect list:
Each prospect is 100% guaranteed to live up to these rankings.
(not a guarantee)

1. Smith - NHL-ready and looks like he's ready to be an impact player. Hoping for a Seabrook-type player, might be more of a Jack Johnson or Bogosian player (plenty of offense but lousy defensively).
2. Nyquist - NHL-ready and looks like he could develop into a 60-point player.
3. Jurco - not NHL-ready but looks like he could be a 40 goal scorer. Big body, speed, hands, and there are positive reports about his developing two-way ability. Potential gets him this high. They desperately need this guy to pan out.
4. Tatar - NHL-ready but his role is cloudy. Can he be a top 6 player? Is he more of a Cleary/Hudler 3rd line supplemental guy? If he can't be a big scorer, can he turn himself into a handsier, not-as-fast Helm?
5. Mrazek - heading to the AHL and we'll know a lot more about him a few months into next season. Talented but not very big. Can he get it done in Lundqvist / Thomas / Brodeur fashion?
6. Jarnkrok - a long way from NHL-ready and has serious physical challenges to getting there. Skill and speed are world-class but due to his small and thin frame, he seems to be hurt all the time. He'd be ranked in the top 3 if I could have any confidence that he can hold up physically in the NHL. Or even the AHL.
I think you are underrating Jarnkrok here by quite a bit. He is 20 years old, just finished the regular season with 39 points in 50 games in a top three men's league in the world, is at a PPG in the playoffs (on a team in the SEL finals), and is likely going to make Sweden's world championship roster. Not to mention he doesn't really have serious physical challenges. Yes, he is still somewhat small and thin, but he is getting bigger (despite not having last offseason to workout) and is now listed at 6'0", 176 pounds. So he has grown an inch and put on 20 pounds since his draft year.

IMO he is very close to being NHL ready. And after another year in the SEL he will definitely be ready, provided he puts on enough weight/strength to make the jump to the NHL (needs to be around 185 to 190 I'd say). But I think people tend to assume most of Jarnkrok's injuries are attributed to his slight frame; where, in reality, he simply has had some bad luck. He is a top three prospect in the wing's pool and may have the best upside of anybody on the farm.

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Old
04-14-2012, 11:22 AM
  #36
jaster
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Many people rated Smith too low for a good stretch because of the same concerns over weight. They aren't as significant as some think. Jarnkrok will be fine. He probably has the most upside of any prospect we have.

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04-14-2012, 11:34 AM
  #37
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Many people rated Smith too low for a good stretch because of the same concerns over weight. They aren't as significant as some think. Jarnkrok will be fine. He probably has the most upside of any prospect we have.
This is 100% true. Not sure why so many people think that if a prospect doesn't weigh 200 pounds when they are 19 or 20 they are never going to be big/strong enough to play in the NHL. While it's true some people have a hard time putting on muscle/weight; for most it's the normal progression to weigh less when your 18-21 and then gradually put on size/strength.

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04-14-2012, 11:44 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Hakan2Holland View Post
This is 100% true. Not sure why so many people think that if a prospect doesn't weigh 200 pounds when they are 19 or 20 they are never going to be big/strong enough to play in the NHL. While it's true some people have a hard time putting on muscle/weight; for most it's the normal progression to weigh less when your 18-21 and then gradually put on size/strength.
Datsyuk was the same way when he came over, he would get knocked over all the time but with time he bulked up and now look at him.

If Jarnkrok was still the 150 something pounds he weighed when he was first drafted, yes thats a major red flag. But hes pushing 180 without having a full off season to weight train last season which is where pro athletes put on their weight.

I'm not concerned, if he gets up to about 185 I think hes in the NHL the season after next without question

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Old
04-14-2012, 11:51 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Jussi View Post
Re: Sarcastro's list and Pulkkinen's "small frame", 5' 10"-11" and 198 pounds should be enough for NHL since there are smaller players than that making a living in the NHL. As for slow footspeed, it's more an issue with technique, his legs are moving fast but the rest of the body isn't keeping up.
Yeah, my main point there was that if he were 6'4 with his hands and skating, he'd be a top 3 prospect and would probably have a very long NHL career ahead of him. Since he's 5'10 or so, the skating is really going to limit him.

Pretty much all of the guys in the NHL that are 5'10 or smaller have better than average wheels, so I'd peg Hudler as his ceiling. That's not the end of the world, but it's not a very high ceiling and causes me to drop him in my rankings. Hudler definitely has the flintstone feet thing going as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakan2Holland View Post
I think you are underrating Jarnkrok here by quite a bit. He is 20 years old, just finished the regular season with 39 points in 50 games in a top three men's league in the world, is at a PPG in the playoffs (on a team in the SEL finals), and is likely going to make Sweden's world championship roster. Not to mention he doesn't really have serious physical challenges. Yes, he is still somewhat small and thin, but he is getting bigger (despite not having last offseason to workout) and is now listed at 6'0", 176 pounds. So he has grown an inch and put on 20 pounds since his draft year.

IMO he is very close to being NHL ready. And after another year in the SEL he will definitely be ready, provided he puts on enough weight/strength to make the jump to the NHL (needs to be around 185 to 190 I'd say). But I think people tend to assume most of Jarnkrok's injuries are attributed to his slight frame; where, in reality, he simply has had some bad luck. He is a top three prospect in the wing's pool and may have the best upside of anybody on the farm.
I haven't seen video of all his injuries, but it's a big red flag to me when a guy who was drafted at 156 lbs and is described by scouts as "rail-thin" (http://www.redwingscentral.com/prosp...alle-jarnkrok/) ends up missing time every year with multiple injuries. If he can't hold up physically in the SEL, how is he going to hold up with guys like Jackman and Weber and Bieksa beating the hell out of him on every shift?

As I said, if it were based on speed and skill alone he'd be top 3. But it's not - it's also based on his probability to make it and last in the NHL and reach his potential, and until he can put a single healthy season together at any level, I'm going to be skeptical about him. Is it bad luck, or is it because he doesn't have the strength to hold up without getting injured?

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04-14-2012, 12:49 PM
  #40
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So what do we do about Tatar? He should be ready by now and yet we have no space on the team for him.

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04-14-2012, 01:15 PM
  #41
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Tatar seems like he's been around forever because he started in the AHL way earlier than most prospects. He's still pretty young.

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04-14-2012, 01:21 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
I'd peg Hudler as his ceiling. It's not a very high ceiling and causes me to drop him in my rankings.
Hudler is going to outscore most of the prospects we have in our system. If Pulu has a Hudler ceiling, then I am ok with a 50-70 point player for a guy we got late in the draft.

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04-14-2012, 01:24 PM
  #43
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Tatar seems like he's been around forever because he started in the AHL way earlier than most prospects. He's still pretty young.
Tatar is one year younger than Smith and Nyquist and has spent three years already in the AHL already. I think he's ready.

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Old
04-14-2012, 01:25 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
If he can't hold up physically in the SEL,
who says he can't?

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04-14-2012, 05:01 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Konnan511 View Post
Hudler is going to outscore most of the prospects we have in our system. If Pulu has a Hudler ceiling, then I am ok with a 50-70 point player for a guy we got late in the draft.
That's ceiling though, meaning the absolute best-case scenario. If we're extremely lucky, he'll end up being Hudler. Whereas if we're extremely lucky with Jurco, he'll end up being Hossa. That's a hell of a lot better and warrants a higher slot.

The other problem for Pulkkinen is that if he doesn't make it to the 50 point territory, he's not going to make it as a PKer or a depth player. That's another factor against him. The book's not written on the guy, but the odds are stacked against him more than most of our prospects because of the poor combination of size/speed.

Looking at it again, 9 is probably too high for him. If he didn't have injury issues of his own I'd be tempted to rank Tvrdon ahead of Pulkkinen. Another solid season of growth from Sproul and Jensen would probably put them ahead of him too, especially if Pulkkinen' production takes another step backward.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zecke26 View Post
who says he can't?
Nobody, but he hasn't so far.

You're really not worried about his injuries hampering his NHL career?

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04-14-2012, 05:16 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Nobody, but he hasn't so far.

You're really not worried about his injuries hampering his NHL career?
so far he was victim of cheapshots a lot. i mean not the physical belongs to hockey stuff but real cheap shots like knee on knee.
i think the NHL is more physical, but in european leagues the dirty stuff is more common. so actually i think the NHL will be better for his health.

so no, i'm not concerned unless one of those ****bags in the SEL will take him out next season for a career-ending injury.

from what i have seen, jarnkrok can handle the physical play well. reminds me of zetterberg, the way he's avoiding hits. he's surely no physical force and will never be, but he's skilled and smart enough to avoid all hockey-related contact. of course you can't really avoid guys trying to injure you.

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04-14-2012, 10:31 PM
  #47
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Well alright, let's do this.

1. Smith: guaranteed NHL'er, top 4, PP QB, bottom pairing PK'er, 24+ mins a game.
2. Nyquist: guaranteed NHL'er, top 6, PP, PK'er, 15+ mins a game.
3. Jarnkork: producing in a very competitive league, very strong NHL potential. Top 6, PP, PK, 15+ mins a game.
4. Backman: Shot up the rankings playing at a high level in a very competitive league. Not sure he can play in all phases like Jarnkrok or be as productive. Very strong NHL potential. Not sure how much offense he will be able to create. Bare minimum ES with PK duties, 20+ mins a game.
5. Jurco: best combination of skill and solid potential. No holes in skillset. Legit NHL potential top 6, PP, 12+ mins a game.
6. Jensen: Looks to be poised for a dominant Jr year in the NCAA. Following Brendan Smith's development arc with similar potential.
7. Ouellet: dominating a lower level of hockey. No real holes in his game. Solid NHL potential, top 4, PP, PK, 22+ mins a game.
8. Sproul: giving Ouellet a run for his money. Better size and shot but defensive game isn't quite up to par despite making strides. Potential ES + PP guy at 20+ mins a night.
9. Sheahan: He's a guaranteed NHL'er, the offense simply hasn't surfaced yet. Assured a bottom 6 forward slot with big PK mins. 12+ mins a night. Will shoot up ratings if he proves to be a capable point producer.
10. Andersson: Similar to Sheahan but doesn't have the offensive potential Sheahan still seems capable of producing. Will be a bottom 6 forward in the NHL.
11. Tatar: I really don't know what to make of Tatar. Will he be a Cory Emmerton/Jan Mursak type who uses up every bit of his waiver free time before struggling to find a spot in the Detroit lineup? He's got the ability to be placed on an NHL roster, I just don't see him pushing his way onto the roster. And those prospects generally don't tend to do much in Detroit.
12. Mrazek: Dominated in the OHL and if he can play at a high level in the A he'll shoot up my ratings. He's a bit undersized by current NHL netminder standards but he's got the intangibles that give him a decent shot to become an NHL'er.
13. Ferraro: Much was expected from him but at this point he looks like Darren Helm. Not a bad thing at all, his skating, grit and two-way play make him a safe bet to eventually don an NHL sweater.
14. Aubry: not the highest skill set or potential, but he seems very good at a specific role which gives him a shot at becoming a regular NHL'er. Detroit could certainly use a big, tough bottom 6 pivot with a well-developed 2-way game. Could become a home grown Paul Gaustad type.
15. Pulkkinen: This one came down to Pulu or Marchenko. I like Marchenko but he's perpetually injured. So Teemu wins by default. I have started to doubt Pulkkinen has the wheels or size to be a legit NHL prospect. He scores enough to have a long career in Europe or the KHL where his skating will be less of an issue.


Last edited by Harnessed in Slums: 04-14-2012 at 10:42 PM.
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04-15-2012, 10:25 AM
  #48
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Mrazek could be done after tonight......Barrie leads Ottawa 3 games to 1.

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04-15-2012, 10:47 AM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post

Nobody, but he hasn't so far.

You're really not worried about his injuries hampering his NHL career?
I understand there is skepticism, but I for one am not.
In 08-09 Calle played 75 games total.
In 09-10 Calle played 66 games.
In 10-11 Calle played 67 games.
In 11-12 Calle has played 69 games(so far).

A SEL regular season is 55 games.

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04-15-2012, 11:50 AM
  #50
jaster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
I haven't seen video of all his injuries, but it's a big red flag to me when a guy who was drafted at 156 lbs and is described by scouts as "rail-thin" (http://www.redwingscentral.com/prosp...alle-jarnkrok/) ends up missing time every year with multiple injuries. If he can't hold up physically in the SEL, how is he going to hold up with guys like Jackman and Weber and Bieksa beating the hell out of him on every shift?

As I said, if it were based on speed and skill alone he'd be top 3. But it's not - it's also based on his probability to make it and last in the NHL and reach his potential, and until he can put a single healthy season together at any level, I'm going to be skeptical about him. Is it bad luck, or is it because he doesn't have the strength to hold up without getting injured?

Hey, that's your mistake Jarnkrok's weight/strength may affect him in that it will take him a little longer to be NHL ready than if he were a bit bigger, but given his abilities, it's not going to hold him back in the long run.

Admittedly, I don't know what happened in the play where he separated his shoulder last year. Maybe he did get pushed around then, but he's already bigger and stronger since then, with even more room to grow. But his knee injury this year was after a guy went knee-to-knee on him, wasn't it? That kind of injury is irrespective of size. What other injuries has he had?

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