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Game 2 plus-minus: Flyers 8, Penguins 5

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Old
04-15-2012, 12:44 AM
  #826
SCUDeriMISSILE
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All I'm trying to say is that a team scoring a high rate of SH goals is not sustainable.

And you made that suggestion when you compared a coin flip to the odds of scoring a short-handed goal.

Quote:
Everything evens out. They had 2 last game. Pretty much guarantees that they won't have another one for at least a few games.
That's not how probability works, chief. If you happen to get heads three times, the probability of getting a heads on the fourth flip is still .5.

^^ how does a coin flip even remotely relate to that?

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04-15-2012, 02:13 AM
  #827
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Pens have lost five playoff games in a row...four of them at home.

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04-15-2012, 05:59 AM
  #828
Uncle Jorgi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Frasier Crane View Post
Oh, we're plenty good enough. And those shorthanded goals that they're relying on will not keep happening. It's part of the sabremetrics thing. Everything evens out. They had 2 last game. Pretty much guarantees that they won't have another one for at least a few games.
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Originally Posted by Moebius View Post
It's a foolish game to play.
I have no idea what this even means. How does making a comment refuting the idea that we're not doomed to failure 2 games into a playoff series equate to playing a game?

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Old
04-15-2012, 06:00 AM
  #829
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Originally Posted by zhenya71 View Post
Pens have lost five playoff games in a row...four of them at home.
Sounds like we're due for a hot streak

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Old
04-15-2012, 06:34 AM
  #830
Florentino Ariza
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Frasier Crane View Post
Oh, we're plenty good enough. And those shorthanded goals that they're relying on will not keep happening. It's part of the sabremetrics thing. Everything evens out. They had 2 last game. Pretty much guarantees that they won't have another one for at least a few games.
It doesnt matter now whether or not they score another sh goal because the damage is already done. Instead of playing smart and respecting who was on the ice, they made mistakes and allowed devastating sh goals. The pens are a better five on five team but as usual they are losing the special teams battle.

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Old
04-15-2012, 06:56 AM
  #831
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Originally Posted by Florentino Ariza View Post
It doesnt matter now whether or not they score another sh goal because the damage is already done. Instead of playing smart and respecting who was on the ice, they made mistakes and allowed devastating sh goals. The pens are a better five on five team but as usual they are losing the special teams battle.
The damage is only done for the two games already played. It's not like they have an effect from here on out. If anything, if the Pens can get their heads out of their *****, the Flyers success at creating short-handed opportunities so far might work against them if they start getting overly aggressive at the point, looking too much for the counter-attack and opening up space deeper in the zone. The Flyers are an awesome team when it comes to scoring goals, but they do like to take chances in the interest of creating that offense, even on the PK. If the Pens can improve their focus and take advantage of it instead of playing right into their hands, this series can turn on a dime.

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04-15-2012, 08:06 AM
  #832
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For all you positive thinkers, history has shown that it is impossible for a team to go down 2-0 in a series and go on to win the cup. just pack up and go home boys

wait, that's not true. Boston did it last year. We did it in 2009 TWICE. We did it in 91. We did it in round 1 in 92 in pretty embarrassing fashion.

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Old
04-15-2012, 10:34 AM
  #833
Florentino Ariza
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I don't think it's pessimistic to say that the Penguins suck right now. They're not hot and if you give up multiple SH goals you probably are not playing very good or disciplined hockey. In 2009 I think I had a different feeling about the team. I still believed that they could win even after being down. I don't feel that way about this year's team. The problems that plagued them all year are not going to just go away (defense) like they did in 2009 because that year we had an overhaul of the coaching staff.


Last edited by Florentino Ariza: 04-15-2012 at 10:35 AM. Reason: grammar
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Old
04-15-2012, 11:20 AM
  #834
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
For all you positive thinkers, history has shown that it is impossible for a team to go down 2-0 in a series and go on to win the cup. just pack up and go home boys

wait, that's not true. Boston did it last year. We did it in 2009 TWICE. We did it in 91. We did it in round 1 in 92 in pretty embarrassing fashion.
You and your pesky facts.

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Old
04-15-2012, 11:40 AM
  #835
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
You and your pesky facts.
Flyers have never lost when going up 2-0. Another fact.

Other facts: malkin's line is getting stuffed and neither the players nor the coaches are doing anything about it. The flyers pinch up to intercept our breakouts yet we won't change how we get the puck up ice. The forwards won't backcheck. People are missing assignments all over the place. The team is getting out worked. The goaltending could be better. Even the lines that are scoring for us aren't consistently visible. Our fourth line is useless. The team is being tested and failing miserably. Shall I go on?

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Old
04-15-2012, 11:44 AM
  #836
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UnderratedBrooks44 View Post
Flyers have never lost when going up 2-0. Another fact.

Other facts: malkin's line is getting stuffed and neither the players nor the coaches are doing anything about it. The flyers pinch up to intercept our breakouts yet we won't change how we get the puck up ice. The forwards won't backcheck. People are missing assignments all over the place. The team is getting out worked. The goaltending could be better. Even the lines that are scoring for us aren't consistently visible. Our fourth line is useless. The team is being tested and failing miserably. Shall I go on?
jesus I didn't say we are right where we want to be. But seriously I don't know how people can go through life being so freaking negative all the time. We can still win. That's all I'm saying.

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Old
04-15-2012, 11:46 AM
  #837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
jesus I didn't say we are right where we want to be. But seriously I don't know how people can go through life being so freaking negative all the time. We can still win. That's all I'm saying.
Absolutely, however they've got far more work to do than is represented by one historical factoid. It's called being realistic.

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Old
04-15-2012, 11:55 AM
  #838
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UnderratedBrooks44 View Post
Absolutely, however they've got far more work to do than is represented by one historical factoid. It's called being realistic.
realistically, we have been a better team than we showed the last 2 games for the majority of the year. Realistically, if they Flyers can win 2 in Pittsburgh we can win 2 in Philly. Realistically, we have dug ourselves into a hole that we have the talent to climb out of but it won't be easy.

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Old
04-15-2012, 12:00 PM
  #839
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
realistically, we have been a better team than we showed the last 2 games for the majority of the year. Realistically, if they Flyers can win 2 in Pittsburgh we can win 2 in Philly. Realistically, we have dug ourselves into a hole that we have the talent to climb out of but it won't be easy.
Agreed, I just don't like what I see this time around in terms of how we've looked and how we've lost these games. Not really hard fought losses, but looking like we just don't have it in certain areas. Not really concerned with the regular season results where 2 of every 3 games played are against a team less talented than us. We shall see.

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Old
04-15-2012, 12:04 PM
  #840
Uncle Jorgi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UnderratedBrooks44 View Post
Flyers have never lost when going up 2-0. Another fact.

Other facts: malkin's line is getting stuffed and neither the players nor the coaches are doing anything about it. The flyers pinch up to intercept our breakouts yet we won't change how we get the puck up ice. The forwards won't backcheck. People are missing assignments all over the place. The team is getting out worked. The goaltending could be better. Even the lines that are scoring for us aren't consistently visible. Our fourth line is useless. The team is being tested and failing miserably. Shall I go on?
Reminds me of 2000, when the situations were reversed and the Pens were the team in the first two games who looked far and away the better team, and had a 2-0 lead. They never won another game.

The Penguins are in a tough spot, there's no doubt. But there's plenty of history to suggest this series is far from decided, especially given the talent and leadership on the team.

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Old
04-15-2012, 12:06 PM
  #841
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I think this team just really needed a road game.

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Old
04-15-2012, 12:08 PM
  #842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Frasier Crane View Post
All I'm trying to say is that a team scoring a high rate of SH goals is not sustainable.

And you made that suggestion when you compared a coin flip to the odds of scoring a short-handed goal.



That's not how probability works, chief. If you happen to get heads three times, the probability of getting a heads on the fourth flip is still .5.

^^ how does a coin flip even remotely relate to that?
You're trying to use the probabilistic results of sabremetrics, which rely on the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem as you call it: "everything goes to the mean." The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem require on independently and identically distributed random variables to be valid without this assumption things do not just go to the mean (consider for example an ARIMA model).

You're right, a team scoring two shorthanded goals a game isn't likely, but if you're using the argument that everything converges to the mean 'just like sabremetrics,' then for each independent random variable a game, in this case the probability of a shorthanded goal is constant. In other words, with that assumption in mind the probability of a shorthanded goal in the game following two shorthanded goals isn't 'practically zero,' it's the same as it was in the game before.

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Old
04-15-2012, 01:14 PM
  #843
Florentino Ariza
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JTG View Post
I think this team just really needed a road game.
This team has been porous for a while now. They are playing against a good team with a great coach that has gotten under their skin and into their heads. Crosby and Letang alone can't carry the team. Perhaps the road game will do the trick, though.

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Old
04-15-2012, 02:03 PM
  #844
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I just got done watching game 2 again and the biggest thing that I noticed was the turnovers. Nearly every Philly goal was a direct result of turning over the puck. The Penguins have been terrible at recovering from turnovers and properly back-checking after the puck starts back into their zone. Take better care of the puck.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ugene Malkin View Post
Kunitz with 2 goals -5
Malkin with 2 assist -4
Neal with 2 assist -4
I believe most of Kunitz and Neal's minuses were from the same instances, but know for sure that Malkin's minuses were a result of:

1st minus: short-handed goal, nothing he could have done on that play
2nd minus: short-handed goal, Malkin did not take out any player on his back-check so he is partly responsible for this goal
3rd minus: Lovejoy's turnover, nothing Malkin could have done
4th minus: empty net goal, short of the Penguins scoring, not much Malkin could have done here either

Yes, Malkin and his line-mates need to start scoring goals and play better defensively, but you can see how misleading the +/- stat can be.

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