He definetly has a HoF projected career right now. He is not a lock, as in OV or Crosby is but if he contributes the way it seems he will be in the hall. I actually cant compare him to anyone exactly. Maybe Gartner like career?
One-dimensional skill forward for the bulk of his career with zero playoff accomplishments.
He's basically Mike Gartner, IMO.
Kovy gets in the Hall. He should finish with 650 goals and 1200 points.
He is so much more dominant then Gartner it is not funny. He is pretty unique. He plays more then any other forward pretty much every season. He is an under-rated defensive player, since he came to New Jersey anyway. He has a bit of an edge to him. He is deadly on the PP. He has mad skills and is consistently great offensively.
If he got drafted by Ottawa and flipped with Spezza in his draft he likely has a similar point production as Spezza in the playoffs. Is Spezza the best playoff performer? No, but he is no slouch a point per game for over 60 games. Kovalchuk got unlucky to be in Altanta. Nothing he could have done to make that team a great playoff team. They just sucked from bad management to the ultimate fail of having to move. Not saying he should not be held to account to a degree for lacking playoff success but really who could have had that in Atlanta?
The most similar player I can think of is actually Ovechkin. Granted Ovechkin had a higher peak and they aren't completely similar but who else plays that style of taking a zillion shots and playing so much ice time? Able to score on the breakaway down the wing or line up for an amazing one timer once his team is holding the zone?
Guy is only a one time All-Star ( 2nd team ) yet his career projects Hall of Fame class.
How does he compare to past snipers?
This is partly because he's playing in what is arguably one of the deepest eras ever for left wings (although he switched to right this year). There's a decent possibility he will be a 1st team all-star at the end of this season as well (assuming the writers don't screw up the votes due to weird NHL.com position listings).
In his career he's finished 2nd to Marcus Naslund (and was nearly 1st), 3rd to Ovechkin and Heatley, 3rd to Ovechkin and Zetterberg, and 3rd to Ovechkin and Parise, in addition to a few other respectable finishes behind mostly good players.
Peter Bondra comparison is the closest in my mind.
503 goals in a low scoring era and 5 all-star games without any all-star teams.
Kovy is at 406 goals in a slightly lower scoring era with a complete missed season in his prime (Pondra missed half of his in which he lead league in goals) and 3 all-star game appearances.
Seems about right.
Somebody here said 650 goals? Kovy just turned 29 and is averaging 40 goals as his ceiling as of late. Six seasons of 40 goals would put him at around 650 but I don't see that happening.
Peter Bondra comparison is the closest in my mind.
503 goals in a low scoring era and 5 all-star games without any all-star teams.
Kovy is at 406 goals in a slightly lower scoring era with a complete missed season in his prime (Pondra missed half of his in which he lead league in goals) and 3 all-star game appearances.
Seems about right.
Somebody here said 650 goals? Kovy just turned 29 and is averaging 40 goals as his ceiling as of late. Six seasons of 40 goals would put him at around 650 but I don't see that happening.
I'm thinking he finishes around 560-580.
He turned 29 YESTERDAY... and he has a contract until he is 42... and you think he is only going to score 154-174 more goals?
Let's say he plays 8 more seasons... retires at 36 years old and leaves $30 million or something on the table... you think he will only average 20 goals a seasons for 8 more years? Seems unlikely to me. I think he will easily get to 600 barring massive injuries.
He is another Bondra, or a very poor man's Brett Hull. He is developing some all around game but he was a very one dimensional one timer and PP specialist for years.
He is so much more dominant then Gartner it is not funny. He is pretty unique. He plays more then any other forward pretty much every season. He is an under-rated defensive player, since he came to New Jersey anyway. He has a bit of an edge to him. He is deadly on the PP. He has mad skills and is consistently great offensively.
If he got drafted by Ottawa and flipped with Spezza in his draft he likely has a similar point production as Spezza in the playoffs. Is Spezza the best playoff performer? No, but he is no slouch a point per game for over 60 games. Kovalchuk got unlucky to be in Altanta. Nothing he could have done to make that team a great playoff team. They just sucked from bad management to the ultimate fail of having to move. Not saying he should not be held to account to a degree for lacking playoff success but really who could have had that in Atlanta?
The most similar player I can think of is actually Ovechkin. Granted Ovechkin had a higher peak and they aren't completely similar but who else plays that style of taking a zillion shots and playing so much ice time? Able to score on the breakaway down the wing or line up for an amazing one timer once his team is holding the zone?
His reputation centers on his goal scoring. That's why he gets into the Hall. If he never laid a single body check or backchecked once, he would get the same amount of votes.
And I think the OP was trying to compare him to players from the past in terms of the hall of fame, such as which "past sniper" in the Hall does Kovy compare to.
He turned 29 YESTERDAY... and he has a contract until he is 42... and you think he is only going to score 154-174 more goals?
Let's say he plays 8 more seasons... retires at 36 years old and leaves $30 million or something on the table... you think he will only average 20 goals a seasons for 8 more years? Seems unlikely to me. I think he will easily get to 600 barring massive injuries.
Iginla is going to be 35 and just posted 32 goals. However I wouldn't be so sure as to compare him to Iginla style wise.
It's anyone's guess how well Kovalchuk will age, but if he stays put in Jersey I don't see many 40 goal seasons on the horizon and depending on what he's asked to do and how healthy he remains, he could retire at 34.
I'll admit I jumped the guy a bit, but I still think 650 goals is an optimistic approach. Far be it from me to say he won't hit 600, but I see him as more of a 25 goal scorer in the current league as he ages. Remember this is a guy who lead the league in goals with 41 at age 20/21. If league levels continue to dip, he could be held under the 30 goal mark.
I definitely give him the edge over Bondra for sure. As a projection I can see him making the HHOF but the guy has a lot of work to do first, he is far from a lock.
Mike Gartner at least was present in the postseason. Only made it to the third round once, but still, his playoff resume is legendary compared to Kovalchuk who is only in his 3rd playoff series overall. The comparison to Gartner I think stems from the consistency in goal scoring. Gartner (along with Jagr) is the only player to crack 30 or more in 15 straight seasons. After 2012 Kovalchuk has 9 in a row.
I know he isn't very strong defensively and he was saddled on Atlanta and all, but he's a career -110. Not a huge deal, but just an ugly wart on his resume right now.
I know he isn't very strong defensively and he was saddled on Atlanta and all, but he's a career -110. Not a huge deal, but just an ugly wart on his resume right now.
Nice pickup.
Hawerchuk has the lowest plus/minus amongst Hall of Famers at -92.
And maybe 1/3 Gartner if he plays out his contract as well but a very good comp here as there isn't a great direct comp.
MUCH higher peak than Gartner. Gartner's top goal peak was 5th once, Kovalchuk has gone 1, 2, 3, 4. But I understand what you're saying as far as possibly a compiler late in the career.
