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Foster Hewitt Divisional Semifinals: Montreal vs. Australia

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Old
04-17-2012, 03:38 PM
  #101
BenchBrawl
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Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Leach isn't "sitting" on the line, he's a strong goal scorer who will be at his finest with a play maker like Fedorov.

Yeah that's one occurrence for Hextall, lots of players have "one big game" in the playoffs. That cannot account for an entire career of not being a reputable clutch player. Also, when I talked about Lewis I assume the same will go for Elias in that regard.
How is he a ''strong'' goal scorer?

1st , 7th , 7th is decent , not strong.

1st , 1st , 2nd , 5th , 5th is strong , especially since my goalscorer happens to play with a superior playmaker than Sergei Fedorov.

Of course Fedorov has an extremely strong playoff records , but I still take into account regular season , and he only has a 9th in assist during his entire career.So while he's a decent playmaker , espiecially since he finished 1st two time in the playoff in that regard , he isn't Adam Oates playmaking wise , and Leach isn't Hextall.

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04-17-2012, 03:41 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Absolutely. Everything is this post in correct.
So you're saying Francis' record would have been the same if he had any decent goalscorer with him that wasn't Jagr.

If you say so...

I said what I had to say about Francis.I think his Pittsburgh record is boosted , and I think it's differant from the Oates situation.People can judge how they want.

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04-17-2012, 03:43 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
So you're saying Francis' record would have been the same if he had any decent goalscorer with him that wasn't Jagr.

If you say so...
Not necessarily. Conacher was able to drive to the net which will create a lot of space for Francis. All this work isn't solely being placed on Francis, the wingers around him make the plays happen as well.

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04-17-2012, 03:47 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Not necessarily. Conacher was able to drive to the net which will create a lot of space for Francis. All this work isn't solely being placed on Francis, the wingers around him make the plays happen as well.
Again , Conacher won't be able to do in the ATD what Jagr did in the NHL.In order to re-create what happened in Pittsburgh , Francis would have to play with Maurice Richard basically.Anyway Conacher is a great player , I'm not downplaying him , but Jagr dominated the NHL which was a weaker league than the ATD and Francis was with the absolute best EV player on his line and his record got boosted in those very specific years , you have the right to judge it any way you want , I choosed to conclude his offense was boosted because of Jagr and not because he stepped up his play.

Conacher is also going to face a tough LW line with Denneny-Elias-Ramsay (but that's not the point of the post)

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04-17-2012, 03:50 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
Again , Conacher won't be able to do in the ATD what Jagr did in the NHL.In order to re-create what happened in Pittsburgh , Francis would have to play with Maurice Richard basically.Anyway Conacher is a great player , I'm not downplaying him , but Jagr dominated the NHL which was a weaker league than the ATD and Francis was with the absolute best EV player on his line and his record got boosted in those very specific years , you have the right to judge it any way you want , I choosed to conclude his offense was boosted because of Jagr and not because he stepped up his play.

Conacher is also going to face a tough LW line with Denneny-Elias-Ramsay (but that's not the point of the post)
You do realize Conacher is in the same category as Jagr when it comes to goalscoring, how does that not scream "effective" at you? Read what jarek posted.

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04-17-2012, 03:52 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
You do realize Conacher is in the same category as Jagr when it comes to goalscoring, how does that not scream "effective" at you? Read what jarek posted.
This wasn't my point , my point was that in the actual league where Francis offense was boosted (or so I think) , Jagr was the best player in this league , meaning he could control to a degree higher than Conacher will be able to do it in the ATD. ( the same would be true with Jagr in the ATD actually so he's not the best player in the league anymore )

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04-17-2012, 03:54 PM
  #107
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By no means do I mean to downgrade Hextall here, but let's remember he played on the second best line in the NHL during his peak (Patrick-Watson-Hextall, after the Kraut line). He had one of the best playmakers in the league in Watson, and another strong playmaker from the wing in Patrick. Now I think you've done the same thing here too, but if you're going to downgrade Francis for playing on one of the best lines, then let's just keep that tidbit in mind on Hextall. Hextall was the best player on the line a majority of those years (not all, but most. For instance I think Patrick was probably better for two of them, but that's not the point), but if you're going to play that game, you should expect it right back if you're going to throw Hextall's goal numbers out there.

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04-17-2012, 03:58 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
By no means do I mean to downgrade Hextall here, but let's remember he played on the second best line in the NHL during his peak (Patrick-Watson-Hextall, after the Kraut line). He had one of the best playmakers in the league in Watson, and another strong playmaker from the wing in Patrick. Now I think you've done the same thing here too, but if you're going to downgrade Francis for playing on one of the best lines, then let's just keep that tidbit in mind on Hextall. Hextall was the best player on the line a majority of those years (not all, but most. For instance I think Patrick was probably better for two of them, but that's not the point), but if you're going to play that game, you should expect it right back if you're going to throw Hextall's goal numbers out there.
This will probably be my closing comment on the Francis situation , but I didn't say he was playing on the best line , I said he was playing with the best player , who outscored him.

Hextall did win scoring titles , so he was the best of the line sometimes , which is not the case with Francis.

Anyway I feel like we're going in circle with the Francis thing , seems everybody has their position on it so I'll start talking abo0ut other things I think I have an advantage on in this series.

I need a break as I've debated all day , see you later tonight guys.

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04-17-2012, 03:59 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
This wasn't my point , my point was that in the actual league where Francis offense was boosted (or so I think) , Jagr was the best player in this league , meaning he could control to a degree higher than Conacher will be able to do it in the ATD. ( the same would be true with Jagr in the ATD actually so he's not the best player in the league anymore )
I really wouldn't invest much hope in that theory, I think if the line is fit to perform like that, it's going to work.

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04-17-2012, 04:49 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
By no means do I mean to downgrade Hextall here, but let's remember he played on the second best line in the NHL during his peak (Patrick-Watson-Hextall, after the Kraut line). He had one of the best playmakers in the league in Watson, and another strong playmaker from the wing in Patrick. Now I think you've done the same thing here too, but if you're going to downgrade Francis for playing on one of the best lines, then let's just keep that tidbit in mind on Hextall. Hextall was the best player on the line a majority of those years (not all, but most. For instance I think Patrick was probably better for two of them, but that's not the point), but if you're going to play that game, you should expect it right back if you're going to throw Hextall's goal numbers out there.
Not to mention that Hextall did all his meaningful work during the weakest era of the NHL's history..

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04-17-2012, 05:18 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by jarek View Post
Not to mention that Hextall did all his meaningful work during the weakest era of the NHL's history..
no he didn't.

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04-17-2012, 05:44 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
no he didn't.
The war years?

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04-17-2012, 05:48 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by jarek View Post
The war years?
that's right. the war years were the weakest era on record, and those aren't the years that Hextall had his best seasons.

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04-17-2012, 05:48 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarek View Post
The war years?
Kinda the early War Years though, before things really got out of hand. 44-46 seem to be the three truly ridiculous seasons, while Hextall had his top-10 point finishes from 1940-43.

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04-17-2012, 07:33 PM
  #115
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LINE CHANGE: Derek Sanderson will change places with Bobby Holik on the third line, Holik will move to the fourth line with Berlinguette and Labine.

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04-17-2012, 07:51 PM
  #116
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Goaltending

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A big save here and there? that's like talking about a team who will have 80 shots a game, and the goaltender makes a desperation save once every little while. Parent holds a flattering advantage over Lumley, which to reiterate, is the biggest advantage for either team in any category in this series. He has the capability to steal a game in this series, Parent was absolute money in the playoffs, and was the best goaltender in the world during his insurmountable two-year peak. Lumley did win a cup and was pretty efficient in Detroit's 1950 victory. Percy LeSueur is a better comparison for Lumley than Bernie Parent is.
Quote:
Mind you, Parent > Lumley is far and away the biggest advantage in the series, there's absolutely no parity in goaltending here.
Need I say more.

Moderate Advantage: Australia

Defense

First Pairings

I won't talk much about the first pairings, Montreal's pairing is the better top pairing, but Potvin and Baun are not to be underestimated. A legitimate shutdown pairing that includes the best player in the series, who is also a big time offensive threat, I think the pairing is a lot closer than it is on paper. Baun will create a lot of problems for any wingers coming down the right side.

Second Pairings

Quote:
I still don't understand this... Why is Carlyle so out of place next to Doug Mohns? I'd rather just have you read the biographies I've provided for you rather than copy and paste quotes, but since you seem to bypass those, I'll prove that Mohns is the stay-at-home defenseman on this unit, which makes it far from a mess. Baun is under-appreciated, and I think is a below-average, but not out of place #2.

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Originally Posted by LoH
he worked as a stay-at-home defender who added stability and leadership to the young lineups
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougmohns.com
...he was a physical player.
For any skeptics of this pairing, it is really not that confusing. Mohns assumes the defensive role, whereas the less dimensional Carlyle is the breakout passer and the offensive defenseman.

I think Boyle has earned his keep onto a second pairing, but is still kind of underwhelming. He's not big nor strong, and will have a difficult time handling some of the Roos' players.

I just don't think Beck is a strong #4 in a 32-team draft, he was a lot like Carlyle in some ways, except what he lacked offensively he made up for physically and defensively. It's kind of ridiculous that he was called better than Baun, when Beck is not a great shutdown defenseman. And I would believe that Boyle is not going to be the defensive component of the pairing, so like Mohns, it will rest on Beck's shoulders.

Advantage: Australia

Third Pairings

I said I'm really not a fan of Montreal's defensive depth past Kelly and Howell, and this is just an underwhelming third pairing. Stackhouse is a decent offensive defenseman, but he was non-existent in terms of physical play and not a reputable defensive rearguard. Macoun was a pretty good stay-at-home defenseman who was a step below Stackhouse offensively, but not terrible. I don't think this line has any shutdown potential, and will have a really difficult time against the Roos' forwards.

Morrow is a solid #5, a good defensive defenseman. Leduc is unspectacular #6, but was very physically and could score goals. This unit shouldn't be intimidated by the Canadiens forwards.

Advantage: Australia

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04-17-2012, 08:09 PM
  #117
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Forwards

First Lines:

I don't know if this has been beaten to death or not, but I truly believe Ron Francis is at the very least equal offensively with Frank Nighbor, if not slightly better. Nighbor is a defensive stalwart, which blows Francis's two-way ability out of the water. Conacher has a massive edge over Balderis, and will be very effective on Francis's wing. Denneny was physical, and is better than Shutt, I've explained in the past that I also don't know how I feel about having two guys who were known as good puck carriers on the same line, I would think Nighbor would assume those duties, but I think it does take away from Balderis's ability, who I might add is more out of place on a first line than Reggie Leach is on a second line. The Nighbor-Denneny chemistry is very nice, but I also think that the Roos' first line works very well in transition.

First Lines: Even

Second Lines:

Oates and Hextall are better offensively than Fedorov and Leach, but that's not to mean they're to be underestimated (seems to be the theme of this series one day in). Hextall was not known for his playoff success, and besides one game could never really be counted upon to come up big. Oates was able to keep up his play in the post-season, but both Fedorov and Leach hold playoff records, four consecutive 20+ point postseasons and a postseason high 19 goals, respectively. Lewis and Elias are pretty much a wash, because they are on the line for the same purpose.

Second Lines: I would be inclined to give the advantage to Montreal, but I think Australia's second line will do a lot of damage in the playoffs, I'm not impressed by Hextall.

Third Lines:

Even moving Sanderson to the third line which makes it quicker, and better offensively won't be as good as Montreal's third line. They have a strong shutdown line, so do the the Roos' but I think Montreal's takes the cake on this one. Although I think Sanderson is a better shutdown centre than Goyette, he's not too far behind and better offensively of course.

Third Lines: Advantage - Montreal

Fourth Lines:

I don't exactly know what to make of Montreal's fourth line, it's pretty much a scoring line. Lecavalier provides a little bit of physicality, from watching him recently he's developing into more of a two-way player, but I don't know if it's going to matter much on a fourth line where his offense definitely trumps any defensive play. Marleau isn't horrible defensively either, better offensively, he is not gritty at all and isn't physical. As it's been explained already, Tomas Sandstrom would only be up to his **** disturbing antics if he had someone on his line who could back him up if he were to get in trouble, Vinny nor Marleau is the type of guy for that, and there isn't really anybody on your defensive core who could step in, he won't be on the ice with your other stronger forwards, who would give Sandstrom that ability.

The Roos' fourth line has all sorts of intangibles, minus Holik it is a fast line that can score goals. Holik can stand in front of the net in the offensive zone, while Berlinguette can be a playmaker. In the defensive zone Holik can shadow whatever centre is on the ice and give them hell. Berlinguette and Labine were both defensively renown and were good checkers, Labine was good physically.

I don't really see much intangibles besides a scoring line for Montreal, so Fourth Lines: Advantage - Australia

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04-18-2012, 01:54 AM
  #118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arrbez View Post
Kinda the early War Years though, before things really got out of hand. 44-46 seem to be the three truly ridiculous seasons, while Hextall had his top-10 point finishes from 1940-43.
Yes. The NHL was clearly not what it had been in the thirties when guys like Morenz, Boucher, Cook, Stewart, Conacher, Jackson, etc. were competing for the scoring title most years, but it was also not that bad. Hextall competed at the top of the table with guys like Apps, Schmidt, Syd Howe, Blake, Abel, etc. It is a somewhat lesser era, but it's arguably not that much different from the early 70's.

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04-18-2012, 06:53 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Yes. The NHL was clearly not what it had been in the thirties when guys like Morenz, Boucher, Cook, Stewart, Conacher, Jackson, etc. were competing for the scoring title most years, but it was also not that bad. Hextall competed at the top of the table with guys like Apps, Schmidt, Syd Howe, Blake, Abel, etc. It is a somewhat lesser era, but it's arguably not that much different from the early 70's.
Fair enough, I stand corrected. I might have just assumed that because his center, Phil Watson did in fact have his best seasons during the war.

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04-18-2012, 04:00 PM
  #120
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Special Teams:

Powerplay

First Units:

Oates is a very strong play maker, Denneny is good at left wing and a fine net presence. I'm not fond of Balderis on a first unit, he's a good offensive player but he's among the weaker first unit RWers. Kelly is obviously a good power play quarterback, and Boyle can get the job done as well

Fedorov was also a strong play maker, and he is a lethal weapon in the playoffs. Steve Shutt is the net presence, and Charlie Conacher is the best goal scorer in the series, and will really be put to use on the man advantage. Potvin is equal with Kelly as an elite PP QB, and Randy Carlyle gives the unit a RH shot on the power play.

I also think that Reen saying he won't get many penalties is kind of a bush league statement, Nighbor, Denneny, Barry Beck, Howell, Macoun, Sandstrom and a few others had rather extensive penalty minute totals throughout their careers.

First Units: Advantage - Australia

Second Units:

Francis is the better centre on the second unit, but not by much. The gap between Hextall and Leach is larger than Francis and Nighbor, but we all know how Hextall was in the post-season. Elias was decent offensively, and is not a bad option for the 2nd PP, nor is Lewis. This one's also hard to judge, because I really don't see how a guy with 8 career playoff goals in 37 games is going to be a force in this series.

Second Units: Even

Penalty Kill

First Units:

As we've discussed, the Canadiens may have two of the top five best penalty killers of all time, Sanderson is a strong first unit centre and George Armstrong was a reputable defensive hockey player. I think the Roos' defenseman are better by a fair margin, as Ken Morrow is much better than Beck defensively and Potvin beats out Howell by a lot.

First Units: Advantage - Montreal

The forwards are exponentially better, but the Roos' have the better rearguards.

Second Units:

Goyette and Provost are also a pretty strong corps, Kelly was good defensively and Macoun is a good, not great PK option at this level.

Ron Francis was a good penalty killer, and I would think he was in a similar level with Goyette. However Lewis is not as good an option as Provost. I think Kelly is better than Mohns and Baun, but they are both superior to Macoun.

Second Units: Advantage - Montreal

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04-18-2012, 04:34 PM
  #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
The gap between Hextall and Leach is larger than Francis and Nighbor, but we all know how Hextall was in the post-season.
Hextall's playoff record is pretty average for a player of his talent in that era. 17 points in 37 games gives him a .46 PPG rate. Just for the record, here are some PPG postseason rates of other star forwards during that era:

Joe Primeau: .61
Aurel Joliat: .53
Nels Stewart: .52
Bill Cook: .52
Busher Jackson: .42

Now, these aren't the very best scorers of the era (Conacher belongs to that group, by the way), but they were all fine offensive players whose scoring numbers went down a lot in the playoffs. Both Stewart and Joliat are propped up here by their scoring in the east vs. west Cup finals, by the way. If you remove those games, their respective scoring rates in the NHL playoffs are .42 and .49. That's just the way it was. Looking only at the raw numbers will mislead you.

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04-18-2012, 07:24 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Hextall's playoff record is pretty average for a player of his talent in that era. 17 points in 37 games gives him a .46 PPG rate. Just for the record, here are some PPG postseason rates of other star forwards during that era:

Joe Primeau: .61
Aurel Joliat: .53
Nels Stewart: .52
Bill Cook: .52
Busher Jackson: .42

Now, these aren't the very best scorers of the era (Conacher belongs to that group, by the way), but they were all fine offensive players whose scoring numbers went down a lot in the playoffs. Both Stewart and Joliat are propped up here by their scoring in the east vs. west Cup finals, by the way. If you remove those games, their respective scoring rates in the NHL playoffs are .42 and .49. That's just the way it was. Looking only at the raw numbers will mislead you.
But Conacher, who, yes is invariably better than Hextall, scored at a .71 PPG rate. And outside of one game, Hextall didn't provide much in the post-season, 38% of his goals came in one game, that's pretty sad considering he was a high-octane offensive player. I honestly see no case in trying to sell Hextall as a decent post-season player, because he only had one big game out of 37. It's very underwhelming and I think is a serious point of interest in this series.

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04-18-2012, 07:57 PM
  #123
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Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
But Conacher, who, yes is invariably better than Hextall, scored at a .71 PPG rate. And outside of one game, Hextall didn't provide much in the post-season, 38% of his goals came in one game, that's pretty sad considering he was a high-octane offensive player. I honestly see no case in trying to sell Hextall as a decent post-season player, because he only had one big game out of 37. It's very underwhelming and I think is a serious point of interest in this series.
Rofl.. and people were questioning how much Mogilny and Lafontaine's chemistry matters that they showed over an entire season.

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04-18-2012, 08:26 PM
  #124
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So are we completely ignoring regular season accomplishment in the ATD playoffs? The degree to which my 2nd line dominates yours offensively is so high that Hextall Sr. poor playoff record doesn't really change the fact my line is superior.

Hextall Sr. is not a good playoff performer , but he is surrounded by good playoff performers all over my top 9 , he is in a way better situation than he was in New York.He won't have any choice but to follow the example of my strong core of forwards.

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04-18-2012, 08:41 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by BenchBrawl View Post
So are we completely ignoring regular season accomplishment in the ATD playoffs? The degree to which my 2nd line dominates yours offensively is so high that Hextall Sr. poor playoff record doesn't really change the fact my line is superior.

Hextall Sr. is not a good playoff performer , but he is surrounded by good playoff performers all over my top 9 , he is in a way better situation than he was in New York.He won't have any choice but to follow the example of my strong core of forwards.
Phil Watson - 0.64 PPG in the playoffs
Clint Smith - 0.56 PPG in the playoffs
Cecil Dillon - 0.53 PPG in the playoffs

That's not a bad group to be around, he was just considerably worse than his peers when it mattered most.

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