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05-04-2012, 12:18 AM
  #176
SJeasy
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
I know it sounds stupid, but the year after next season for the Oilers is the time that the Hawks one the Cup with Toews, Kane, and Hjalmarsson on ELCs, Sharp on a cheap contract because no one expected him to break out like that, Hossa was on his cap-circuventing retirement contract, and Keith and Seabrook on cheap RFA contracts.

Like you say, the Hawks had their Keith, Seabrook, and Sharp, and their depth players all ready, and then Kane and Toews were drafted and they were ready to compete immediately. With the Oilers, by the time they get the depth players and defensemen and goaltender, Hall, Eberle, RNH, and maybe even Yakupov's ELCs will be up and it will be difficult to sign tons of depth players like that insane CHicago third line and defense. It doesn't help that no UFA wants to sign in Edmonton.
They have the UFA issue. That makes it doubly important for them to make their late picks count (trade fodder or secondary players). Their late drafting is abysmal. They aren't a winning organization and it starts with their suits.

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05-04-2012, 12:23 AM
  #177
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They have the UFA issue. That makes it doubly important for them to make their late picks count (trade fodder or secondary players). Their late drafting is abysmal. They aren't a winning organization and it starts with their suits.
There were also those rumors about there being a big divide between the younger Oilers and the older Oilers in the locker room this season. Obviously all the Oiler fans sided with the kids, but I'm concerned for the long-term health of that team and that Hall/Eberle/RNH have been stuck in a losing environment so long and don't look to be getting any better.

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05-04-2012, 12:43 AM
  #178
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Originally Posted by TNT8592 View Post
what do you guys think about trading up for radek faksa?
Not interested in trading up for anybody. We needs these picks more than people realize.

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05-04-2012, 01:00 AM
  #179
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Not interested in trading up for anybody. We needs these picks more than people realize.
Personally, I think the team needs more picks than what they have.

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05-04-2012, 01:14 AM
  #180
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Personally, I think the team needs more picks than what they have.
I agree.

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05-04-2012, 09:54 AM
  #181
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
I know it sounds stupid, but the year after next season for the Oilers is the time that the Hawks one the Cup with Toews, Kane, and Hjalmarsson on ELCs, Sharp on a cheap contract because no one expected him to break out like that, Hossa was on his cap-circuventing retirement contract, and Keith and Seabrook on cheap RFA contracts.

Like you say, the Hawks had their Keith, Seabrook, and Sharp, and their depth players all ready, and then Kane and Toews were drafted and they were ready to compete immediately. With the Oilers, by the time they get the depth players and defensemen and goaltender, Hall, Eberle, RNH, and maybe even Yakupov's ELCs will be up and it will be difficult to sign tons of depth players like that insane CHicago third line and defense. It doesn't help that no UFA wants to sign in Edmonton.
Edmonton just has to target the right players. Western canadian Boys with Wives from around there as well. Edmonton becomes a favorable destination for 2-3 years if theres a very high chance you can win a cup with eberle, hall, RNH and yakupov.

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05-04-2012, 11:15 AM
  #182
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So basically you guys want to draft for quantity not quality? I don't get that logic. That logic is not how we scored logan couture. I say trade into the top 10, and get the right guy.

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05-04-2012, 03:02 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by Sharksrule04 View Post
So basically you guys want to draft for quantity not quality? I don't get that logic. That logic is not how we scored logan couture. I say trade into the top 10, and get the right guy.
They don't want to be sold the soap of the "golden boy" not being the cause of failure when the supporting cast is failing all around him. Edmonton has lots of golden boys with no supporting cast. And there are some some golden boys who are more akin to lead ingots than they are gold despite the pretty points they put up.

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05-04-2012, 05:46 PM
  #184
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So basically you guys want to draft for quantity not quality? I don't get that logic. That logic is not how we scored logan couture. I say trade into the top 10, and get the right guy.
It's not really a matter of drafting for quantity. One, it's a matter of drafting in positions that this particular scouting group has succeeded in. Their current spot is not where they've done well historically. The top ten is a spot they've done well in but the cost of moving from 16-18 into there will be up there. Which leads to number two on the matter which is assets available for them to move up.

When they traded up to draft Couture, they lucked out moving Toskala and Bell for the #13, 44, and a 4th in '09. They had to basically ream a team to get near the spot. Then to draft Couture, they had to move the #13 with the 44 to move up four spots to get him. So four spots cost a mid-second rounder. From the 16-18 spot to get into the top ten will cost the team the #55 and something else because that #55 is late. What that something else is will depend on how high into the top ten they want to go.

The issue with the Sharks with this particular decision is that they're thin in the pool as it is. They're thin in terms of picks this year with just two in the first four rounds. They're thin in terms of obviously expendable assets. They will have to rely on free agency and mostly trades to address their roster needs. And free agency will be lucky to yield the Sharks two players that they can add to make others expendable. However, most likely with that, it probably will only see the results of those trades in next year's draft, provided that they don't get moved during the year as it tends to happen with this regime...

If they can find a way to move up into the top ten without sacrificing picks outside of their own 1st round pick, then I'd probably be for it. However, with what plagues this organization in lack of depth in general, they're probably better trading for a few more picks and getting more in the cupboard so that they have tradeable assets down the road.

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05-04-2012, 05:51 PM
  #185
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There is no need to sacrifice the picks they have to move up. They should be collecting some more. They also need to show a bit of balls and creativity when making these picks. The forward pool needs skill, size and speed, maybe combo guys size/speed or skill/speed. Defense pool needs skill and skating and offensive instincts. No more Rathje's(Doherty) or Davidson(Petrecki).

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05-04-2012, 05:56 PM
  #186
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Originally Posted by Gene Parmesan View Post
There is no need to sacrifice the picks they have to move up. They should be collecting some more. They also need to show a bit of balls and creativity when making these picks. The forward pool needs skill, size and speed, maybe combo guys size/speed or skill/speed. Defense pool needs skill and skating and offensive instincts. No more Rathje's(Doherty) or Davidson(Petrecki).
Size and speed is usually top 10. After that, you sacrifice size to get skill and speed or skill and speed to get size. IMO, the Sharks issue in the late first is going predominately for size over skill and speed. They have been OK getting size late. The place to get successful speed (without size) for teams generically is late first/early second.

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05-04-2012, 05:56 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Gene Parmesan View Post
There is no need to sacrifice the picks they have to move up. They should be collecting some more. They also need to show a bit of balls and creativity when making these picks. The forward pool needs skill, size and speed, maybe combo guys size/speed or skill/speed. Defense pool needs skill and skating and offensive instincts. No more Rathje's(Doherty) or Davidson(Petrecki).
I agree, the Sharks need some talent in this system, and talent that can be cultivated fairly quickly. It's not like we don't have some later round picks anyway, but we need to keep our 1st and possibly move up through trading some spare parts if possible (not other picks).

I would like to see the Sharks move into the top-10 if possible and at the same time pick up 2-3 picks overall at the draft. Guys like Clowe and Murray have value and that should be cashed in on.

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05-04-2012, 06:02 PM
  #188
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Size and speed is usually top 10. After that, you sacrifice size to get skill and speed or skill and speed to get size. IMO, the Sharks issue in the late first is going predominately for size over skill and speed. They have been OK getting size late. The place to get successful speed (without size) for teams generically is late first/early second.
This year they are in the middle of the 1st, they should be able to get a decent prospect there. I really hope they don't draft a defenseman when the forward prospect pool is so barren. They have one skilled forward prospect (Nieto) they need more along the lines of his skillset.

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05-04-2012, 06:06 PM
  #189
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Size and speed is usually top 10. After that, you sacrifice size to get skill and speed or skill and speed to get size. IMO, the Sharks issue in the late first is going predominately for size over skill and speed. They have been OK getting size late. The place to get successful speed (without size) for teams generically is late first/early second.
Agreed. The late first is where you get the Eberles and the Ennises,

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05-04-2012, 06:11 PM
  #190
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Agreed. The late first is where you get the Eberles and the Ennises,
Chris Kreider, 19th pick.

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05-04-2012, 06:17 PM
  #191
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Originally Posted by Gene Parmesan View Post
This year they are in the middle of the 1st, they should be able to get a decent prospect there. I really hope they don't draft a defenseman when the forward prospect pool is so barren. They have one skilled forward prospect (Nieto) they need more along the lines of his skillset.
From what everyone is outlining there will be those kind available. They really miss on dmen in that range and it is the size issue. In recent drafts the homeruns in that pick range are Green and Carlson (I'd want Carlson, not Green) and Kulikov at #12 (probably a future stud). The Sharks just don't pick those kind. The 08 draft had some other desirable D in the late first (McDonagh, Karlsson, Myers, Gardiner, Del Zotto) but it was an exceptional draft for defense, not likely to be seen again soon. And there were some monumental misses by other teams in that 08 draft in the first round.

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05-04-2012, 06:22 PM
  #192
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From what everyone is outlining there will be those kind available. They really miss on dmen in that range and it is the size issue. In recent drafts the homeruns in that pick range are Green and Carlson (I'd want Carlson, not Green) and Kulikov at #12 (probably a future stud). The Sharks just don't pick those kind. The 08 draft had some other desirable D in the late first (McDonagh, Karlsson, Myers, Gardiner, Del Zotto) but it was an exceptional draft for defense, not likely to be seen again soon. And there were some monumental misses by other teams in that 08 draft in the first round.
I see what you are saying. Now with the Sharks scouting is there a reason why they only have one scout in the WHL? I figured with the Sharks being the west and having a junior league on the front lawn essentially they would have more of an influx of WHL talent aside from free agents like Gogol and Acolaste.

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05-04-2012, 06:30 PM
  #193
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I see what you are saying. Now with the Sharks scouting is there a reason why they only have one scout in the WHL? I figured with the Sharks being the west and having a junior league on the front lawn essentially they would have more of an influx of WHL talent aside from free agents like Gogol and Acolaste.
Part of it is who they know. At one time they had a connection to Kelowna which was turning out good dmen. It seems like their connections aren't in the right places, because there have been some good picks in the WHL and some picks of one over another from that league that just don't seem right. I know Burke is based out of Massachusetts, but . . . BTW, Red Deer (owned by the Sutter Bros.) really cranks out dmen.

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05-04-2012, 06:33 PM
  #194
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Part of it is who they know. At one time they had a connection to Kelowna which was turning out good dmen. It seems like their connections aren't in the right places, because there have been some good picks in the WHL and some picks of one over another from that league that just don't seem right. I know Burke is based out of Massachusetts, but . . . BTW, Red Deer (owned by the Sutter Bros.) really cranks out dmen.
Ahhh I see. Are there any WHL defenseman you are keen on? the reason I'm curious about the dub is because it seems like every other team in the pacific time zone takes advantage of that league except the Sharks. I guess it is about who you know.

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05-04-2012, 06:43 PM
  #195
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Ahhh I see. Are there any WHL defenseman you are keen on? the reason I'm curious about the dub is because it seems like every other team in the pacific time zone takes advantage of that league except the Sharks. I guess it is about who you know.
Not really. I don't know this class. I do know retrospective, and the good development teams really stand out. It may not be their development so much as their ability to spot talent at a very young age (before the pro scouts roll around). As an example of retrospective, I would have had huge blackmarks on Wishart just from where he was playing (Prince Georges) because they just don't crank out NHL players. IMO, the draft decisions would be improved if they checked track records for various amateur teams even down to checking it by round and position.

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05-04-2012, 06:57 PM
  #196
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Chris Kreider, 19th pick.
Kreider really doesn't have elite offensive potential. He was a mix of speed and size, but he developed above-average offensive skills after being drafted. Still, I don't see him as a potential 1st liner, no matter how crazy Rangers fans have been after the past few games. I great 2nd liner that relies on speed and strength to get into the right places and create odd-man situations or breakaways, but never an elite possession player or a particularly creative player. Anyway, he's not the type we should be drafting. And I know that everyone is in love with Coyle, but he wasn't the type of player that we should have drafted either.

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05-04-2012, 07:02 PM
  #197
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Kreider really doesn't have elite offensive potential. He was a mix of speed and size, but he developed above-average offensive skills after being drafted. Still, I don't see him as a potential 1st liner, no matter how crazy Rangers fans have been after the past few games. I great 2nd liner that relies on speed and strength to get into the right places and create odd-man situations or breakaways, but never an elite possession player or a particularly creative player. Anyway, he's not the type we should be drafting. And I know that everyone is in love with Coyle, but he wasn't the type of player that we should have drafted either.
Sure he was. Talented enough to help get us Burns.

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05-04-2012, 07:08 PM
  #198
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Sure he was. Talented enough to help get us Burns.
Haha, i was going to say the exact same thing.

Still, Coyle is going to be a beast is my bet.

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05-04-2012, 07:22 PM
  #199
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Sure he was. Talented enough to help get us Burns.


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Haha, i was going to say the exact same thing.

Still, Coyle is going to be a beast is my bet.
He's probably the surest bet to be an NHLer as there is right now, but he doesn't have the high-end talent that it takes to be a star in the NHL. A great read was the Huberdeau vs. Coyle thread in the Prospects forum a week ago. Most of the people posting there were Sea Dogs fans that see him a lot. He's a 20 year old playing in a league where the most talented players are usually 17 and 18.

I could be way off and he could become the next Iginla (although Blake Wheeler seems to be the going comparison), but I don't see him as anything more than an above average 2nd liner. That's still good and not an issue, but HF is convinced he's going to be a superstar and a household name.

I digress: it just always seemed to me when I watched him and Nieto, that although Coyle was more physically gifted, Nieto had the better hands and raw ability, whereas Coyle was a physical specimen and a technical player.

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05-04-2012, 08:20 PM
  #200
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So basically you guys want to draft for quantity not quality? I don't get that logic. That logic is not how we scored logan couture. I say trade into the top 10, and get the right guy.
If we trade into the top 10, it would help our team - IF we hit on the pick. If we miss, that mistake is more costly than you could imagine. We just can't do that. Our margin for error is so slim already with drafts because our GM's been so loose with trading picks for players at the deadline (and to move up in drafts).

We need more picks period. I'm not saying pick bad players, obviously we want good players but it doesnt work like that. Theres so much luck involved (it doesnt always play out like the best player goes first, 2nd best goes 2nd ovr, 3rd best goes 3rd and so on...).

If I can find the link, I'll post it. from an old analytics conference it showed outside of the first 2 rounds (3-7) you have basically the same chance of getting an nhl player. round 1, top 10 is a higher percentage and late 1st-2nd is lower. it just shows it's smarter to go after a higher quantity of picks. The Chicago Blackhawks have completely rebuilt their prospects pool in the last 2 years just by having a ton of draft picks to work with - like the more lottery tix you have, the greater chance you have of winning the jackpot. we need to do that.

EDIT:
Found the video. Titled "Better Off Guessing? Measuring the Quality of Draft Decisions" here's the link.


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