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Old
05-04-2012, 07:29 PM
  #201
Gene Parmesan
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
Kreider really doesn't have elite offensive potential. He was a mix of speed and size, but he developed above-average offensive skills after being drafted. Still, I don't see him as a potential 1st liner, no matter how crazy Rangers fans have been after the past few games. I great 2nd liner that relies on speed and strength to get into the right places and create odd-man situations or breakaways, but never an elite possession player or a particularly creative player. Anyway, he's not the type we should be drafting. And I know that everyone is in love with Coyle, but he wasn't the type of player that we should have drafted either.
Well isn't that what everyone around here clamors for? more speed? I would take a great second liner at 19. When the Sharks have taken Kaspar and Plihal and the like.

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05-04-2012, 07:34 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
If we trade into the top 10, it would help our team - IF we hit on the pick. If we miss, that mistake is more costly than you could imagine. We just can't do that. Our margin for error is so slim already with drafts because our GM's been so loose with trading picks for players at the deadline (and to move up in drafts).

We need more picks period. I'm not saying pick bad players, obviously we want good players but it doesnt work like that. Theres so much luck involved (it doesnt always play out like the best player goes first, 2nd best goes 2nd ovr, 3rd best goes 3rd and so on...).

If I can find the link, I'll post it. from an old analytics conference it showed outside of the first 2 rounds (3-7) you have basically the same chance of getting an nhl player. round 1, top 10 is a higher percentage and late 1st-2nd is lower. it just shows it's smarter to go after a higher quantity of picks. The Chicago Blackhawks have completely rebuilt their prospects pool in the last 2 years just by having a ton of draft picks to work with - like the more lottery tix you have, the greater chance you have of winning the jackpot. we need to do that.
I believe you. If we ****ed up and picked Angel Esposito instead of Couture? We would be absolutely screwed right now.

If we can trade back and get a bunch of early-mid 2nd rounders, we'll be poised to pick the Saad, or the Etem, etc.

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Well isn't that what everyone around here clamors for? more speed? I would take a great second liner at 19. When the Sharks have taken Kaspar and Plihal and the like.
Of course. But what I'm saying is that the Rangers are lucky he developed top-6 skills. If he clearly has top-6 skill along with that speed and size, Kreider doesn't fall that low. But my point is that we need to draft skill over size.

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05-06-2012, 05:04 PM
  #203
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Looking at the Final CSS rankings, I think Zach Stepan should be available at our 55th overall pick.

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05-06-2012, 07:34 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
Looking at the Final CSS rankings, I think Zach Stepan should be available at our 55th overall pick.


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05-06-2012, 07:55 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
I believe you. If we ****ed up and picked Angel Esposito instead of Couture? We would be absolutely screwed right now.

If we can trade back and get a bunch of early-mid 2nd rounders, we'll be poised to pick the Saad, or the Etem, etc.



Of course. But what I'm saying is that the Rangers are lucky he developed top-6 skills. If he clearly has top-6 skill along with that speed and size, Kreider doesn't fall that low. But my point is that we need to draft skill over size.
I have said they need too. I don't where I said anything differently. He was able to develop because the Rangers haven't rushed him. They took a risk and it paid off. I'm just saying if a Chris Kreider type is available, I don't see DW and co not taking him. The Sharks don't need to immediate impact players, they need to stock up. All this talk of trading up is from the same people who complain about the cupboard being bare.

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Old
05-06-2012, 10:08 PM
  #206
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I see what you are saying. Now with the Sharks scouting is there a reason why they only have one scout in the WHL? I figured with the Sharks being the west and having a junior league on the front lawn essentially they would have more of an influx of WHL talent aside from free agents like Gogol and Acolaste.
Without the intent of turning this into NCAA vs CHL, i strongly believe that we need to pick more CHL guys and less USHL guys. CHL guys picked in the late rounds are the ones turning out to be late round gems, gimme a Benn, Stone, anyday. Also the NCAA route that we tend to use is good for turning out the 3rd line depth guys/3rd pairing dmen.

The highly talented kids go to the CHL. the people who need to get bigger,stronger,quicker go to NCAA and they are the ones who try to carve out the career as a 3rd line grinder. Now im not saying that CHL kids have more talent, im saying that the kids that max out as 3rd liners go to NCAA because they have more practice to work on forecheck, backcheck, positioning etc. CHLers have the talent to become top 6ers within a few years.

Now obviously im talking about the guys that stay the 4 years in NCAA, which are the project types we tend to draft. The Toews, Heatleys etc of the NCAA are not what im talking about.

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05-06-2012, 11:17 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by CloweForbidzYou View Post
Without the intent of turning this into NCAA vs CHL, i strongly believe that we need to pick more CHL guys and less USHL guys. CHL guys picked in the late rounds are the ones turning out to be late round gems, gimme a Benn, Stone, anyday. Also the NCAA route that we tend to use is good for turning out the 3rd line depth guys/3rd pairing dmen.

The highly talented kids go to the CHL. the people who need to get bigger,stronger,quicker go to NCAA and they are the ones who try to carve out the career as a 3rd line grinder. Now im not saying that CHL kids have more talent, im saying that the kids that max out as 3rd liners go to NCAA because they have more practice to work on forecheck, backcheck, positioning etc. CHLers have the talent to become top 6ers within a few years.

Now obviously im talking about the guys that stay the 4 years in NCAA, which are the project types we tend to draft. The Toews, Heatleys etc of the NCAA are not what im talking about.
Part depends on where you pick. WCHA has been better with forwards than the northeast recently (although it may turn around). The WCHA (and CCHA) tend to get more USHL guys than guys out of northeast high school hockey for forwards and the USHL guys tend to be a bit better. I don't know about potential top 6ers on the 4 year guys but there are some out of the 4 year NCAA guys. They tend to be undersized like Pavelski (I know Pavelski only had 2 years but I suspect that he initially expected to be in school for 4). Matt Read is another case in point that runs counter to your contention. Exceptions do not disprove a general rule of thumb and I don't know the total numbers of the history of those late round top 6ers. I would not take it someone's say so; I would definitely check the numbers.

My contention for Sharks drafting is that they need to form better connections with better programs. They have been fishing in some understocked areas for quite some time.

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Old
05-07-2012, 12:30 AM
  #208
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Agreed on that last point.

It just puzzles me how an NHL team doesn't have a better relationship with the schools that make up the majority of the college players in the NHL.

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05-07-2012, 02:41 PM
  #209
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At least with the Kings sweep, the Sharks are now limited to either the 16th or 17th pick in the first round.

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05-09-2012, 12:15 AM
  #210
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The 3 players I like in this draft are Gaunce, Ceci and Koekkoek. Not sure which one suits the Sharks the most...but I'll be happy with any of them.

And I agree...I think the Sharks need to trade back to accumulate more draft picks. The quantity over quality argument is garbage. Think about it this way...the more picks you have, the more risks you can take.

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05-09-2012, 12:26 AM
  #211
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Originally Posted by drumzan View Post
The 3 players I like in this draft are Gaunce, Ceci and Koekkoek. Not sure which one suits the Sharks the most...but I'll be happy with any of them.

And I agree...I think the Sharks need to trade back to accumulate more draft picks. The quantity over quality argument is garbage. Think about it this way...the more picks you have, the more risks you can take.
You have to keep in mind this is a very weak draft. Which means not only are lower picks more of a gamble (and likely farther from NHL ready) but that also means the draft picks are less valuable in general and trading for picks or moving up may be less expensive than most years. With the players the Sharks have to move, and their strong drafting history, they need some high skill players and this may be a great opportunity to pull some needles from the haystack of the first round.

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05-09-2012, 12:30 AM
  #212
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Ceci is probably out of our reach. I'm hoping Collberg slips

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05-09-2012, 01:33 AM
  #213
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There's so much "luck" involved in the draft that even the weakest draft will still have gems fall through the cracks into the later rounds. Nobody knows exactly how they'll all develop either

Obviously, the Sharks are counting on this since we have 2 picks in the last round of a "weak" draft. *GULP*

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05-09-2012, 10:49 PM
  #214
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I hope that we draft Max Iafrate in the later rounds. He sounds like a gamer.

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05-10-2012, 12:03 AM
  #215
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Sharks pick between the Senators and the Hawks, I believe.

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05-10-2012, 12:06 AM
  #216
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Sharks pick between the Senators and the Hawks, I believe.
Sharks get 16 if the Caps win, and 17 if they lose.

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05-10-2012, 08:43 AM
  #217
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Sharks get 16 if the Caps win, and 17 if they lose.
I fully expect it to be dealt to trade up to get Cody Ceci. Not what I want but that's what I'm expecting. lol

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05-10-2012, 08:56 AM
  #218
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I fully expect it to be dealt to trade up to get Cody Ceci. Not what I want but that's what I'm expecting. lol
What do you think they would give up to get him? Assuming he goes around 10 or 11.

Our pick + ??

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05-10-2012, 02:16 PM
  #219
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What do you think they would give up to get him? Assuming he goes around 10 or 11.

Our pick + ??
I would assume roughly what we gave up to St. Louis to move up four spots in 2007. That was 13 and 44 so we'd probably have to give up 16-17, the 55, and a 4th or 5th rounder either this year or next year depending on what is available at the time.

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05-10-2012, 02:19 PM
  #220
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I would assume roughly what we gave up to St. Louis to move up four spots in 2007. That was 13 and 44 so we'd probably have to give up 16-17, the 55, and a 4th or 5th rounder either this year or next year depending on what is available at the time.
Probably less even, 2007 was a better draft.

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05-10-2012, 02:35 PM
  #221
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Probably less even, 2007 was a better draft.
Probably not. You're still dealing picks in the same draft class. So if this class is worse, your picks are valued lower as well.

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05-10-2012, 02:37 PM
  #222
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Part depends on where you pick. WCHA has been better with forwards than the northeast recently (although it may turn around). The WCHA (and CCHA) tend to get more USHL guys than guys out of northeast high school hockey for forwards and the USHL guys tend to be a bit better. I don't know about potential top 6ers on the 4 year guys but there are some out of the 4 year NCAA guys. They tend to be undersized like Pavelski (I know Pavelski only had 2 years but I suspect that he initially expected to be in school for 4). Matt Read is another case in point that runs counter to your contention. Exceptions do not disprove a general rule of thumb and I don't know the total numbers of the history of those late round top 6ers. I would not take it someone's say so; I would definitely check the numbers.

My contention for Sharks drafting is that they need to form better connections with better programs. They have been fishing in some understocked areas for quite some time.
I would guess their thinking may be that those areas are "over fished" and due to their draft selection order they have to try and be a bit creative.

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05-10-2012, 02:42 PM
  #223
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Probably not. You're still dealing picks in the same draft class. So if this class is worse, your picks are valued lower as well.
True, but if we move a player (Clowe/Murray) to move up, that player will likely have more value than compared to 2007.

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05-10-2012, 02:48 PM
  #224
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True, but if we move a player (Clowe/Murray) to move up, that player will likely have more value than compared to 2007.
Yeah but I doubt that moving either of those guys will be necessary to move up from 16 or 17 to draft Ceci. We're probably talking somewhere between 10 and 13. Seven spots at the higher end to move up won't take a roster player to do. If they are involved, you can expect a second draft pick being returned.

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05-10-2012, 02:59 PM
  #225
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I fully expect it to be dealt to trade up to get Cody Ceci. Not what I want but that's what I'm expecting. lol
Ottawa 67.

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