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Bob Cole Divisional Finals: Kazan vs. Philadelphia

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Old
05-01-2012, 12:12 PM
  #51
TheDevilMadeMe
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Does it matter that Dave is a LW and Joe a C if their production is similar?

I can see two sides:

1) no it doesn't matter. One team is built around Jagr-Ratelle and the other Howe-Kariya. Joe and Dave both fill the same role - a big body who can go to the net and pick up the trash his more talented linemates left behind.

2) yes, it does matter, since Joe N never proved he could be a #1 C in real life. He spent most of his career playing behind a better center (Gilmour, Modano), while Andreychuk is used to being the guy who picks up the trash in a first line, at least in the NHL.

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05-01-2012, 12:24 PM
  #52
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
There are a number of teams with extremely underwhelming 1st and 2nd liners that have advanced this year..
Absolutely, this is true. With this parity, you can't expect to be good everywhere, hopefully just "good enough". At this stage, when we're about to pare down to 4 teams, taking a sharp knife to players out of place is probably a worthwhile endeavor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Does it matter that Dave is a LW and Joe a C if their production is similar?

I can see two sides:

1) no it doesn't matter. One team is built around Jagr-Ratelle and the other Howe-Kariya. Joe and Dave both fill the same role - a big body who can go to the net and pick up the trash his more talented linemates left behind.

2) yes, it does matter, since Joe N never proved he could be a #1 C in real life. He spent most of his career playing behind a better center (Gilmour, Modano), while Andreychuk is used to being the guy who picks up the trash in a first line, at least in the NHL.
You're right that they're both the 3rd-best member of their line. That is good for both of them, especially Nieuwendyk.

But basically what I'm getting at is, Nieuwendyk is much worse for a 1st line center than Andreychuk is for a 1st line winger. Agree?

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05-02-2012, 12:48 PM
  #53
nik jr
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special teams

i think i have a very strong PK. i switched wilson and davidson not only to cover howe, but also to strengthen my PK. my defensive superiority makes the offenses fairly equal, imo, and i think i may have an advantage in ES scoring, so limiting philadelphia's PP is very important.

tkaczuk, nesterenko and modano were primary PKers for very good PKs. davidson's PKing is basically unknown, but he was his team's top defensive F, and has all the attributes of a good PKer: defensive awareness, speed, tenacity. i know davidson PKed, as he scored a SH goal on november 5, 1939.

example of davidson on PK

an example of davidson being shifted to D

philadelphia's F's were regular PKers, but were not particularly known for their PKing. i think philadelphia's PK would probably be average or below average.


all of my d-men were regular PKers, and known for their defensive play generally. they have a great combination of size, reach and defensive awareness, and should be effective in clearing the crease and in shotblocking.

i think my d-men are better able to handle nieuwendyk, howe and moore than philadelphia's are to handle andreychuk and smith.

i think i have a large advantage in PKing.



although philadelphia has very good F's, the pointmen are weaker. larson had a cannon shot, but was not a great QB, and neither was salming.

goodfellow was a pointman on great PP of '30s DRW, but stanfield's PP scoring is surely inflated by playing on arguably the best PP in history with orr, esposito and bucyk.


i think howe and moore are both playing PP positions relatively unfamiliar to them. i think moore usually played on the wing (with beliveau near the net), and howe usually played near the net (nieuwendyk's spot) or on the point.


i think philadelphia's PP is better, but will not be very effective, b/c my PK is well above philadelphia's.




bower

i don't think it is well known that bower led the NHL in sv% 6 times ('60, '61, '64, '65, '66, '68). he was also 2nd in sv% in '59 and '62.

TML were not always a strong team in that span. they were below .500 in '59, and only 2 games above .500 in '68.


bower played 70 games for NYR in '54.
NYR's record
'51: 20-29-21
'52: 23-34-13
'53: 17-36-16
'54: 29-31-10 (bower was .922)
'55: 17-35-18
'56: 32-28-10
'57: 26-30-14

NYR allowed fewer goals in '54 than in any of their seasons of that decade, and it was unfortunately one of their best seasons. according to BM67's numbers, bower faced more shots than any goalie in '54 and his .922 was 4th best after plante (.939 in 17 games), 2nd AS sawchuk (.933 in 67 games) and 1st AS lumley (.923 in 69 games).


'56 was bathgate's 1st big season, and was gadsby's 1st full season with NYR.

camille henry won the '54 calder and bower was only 4th for calder, which undermines his importance.


according to this post, bower's numbers were also very good in comparison to his backups.
Quote:
Using the performance vs. backup approach described in a previous post, I wanted to see who was the best goalie in each decade. I calculated a total "goals better than backups" for each goalie, based on figuring out how much better each goalie was than their backups, and then multiplying that by the number of games played to get a total number of goals. So it was not only excellence that counted, but also longevity.

What I found was that for the most part, my answers for each ten year period followed along pretty closely with conventional wisdom, with one glaring exception.

1950s: 1. Al Rollins, 2. Jacques Plante, 3. Glenn Hall
1960s: 1. Johnny Bower, 2. Charlie Hodge, 3. Glenn Hall
1970s: 1. Tony Esposito, 2. Bernie Parent, 3. Ken Dryden
1980s: 1. Dan Bouchard, 2. Pete Peeters, 3. Chico Resch
1990s: 1. Dominik Hasek, 2. Patrick Roy, 3. Curtis Joseph
2000s: 1. Miikka Kiprusoff, 2. Dominik Hasek, 3. Roberto Luongo
bower played behind strong D in toronto, and should also be here.


Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
Reasons to vote for Philadelphia

-Better 1st line
-Better 2nd line
-Better offensive 3rd line
-Better 2nd pairing
-Better 3rd pairing
-Matchup problem for Kazan that either will limit the ice time of Jagr and Ratelle, or will put them out in a situation where they will have to play some defense, exposing Jagr and Andreychuk
-Better PP units, first and second
-Physical defensemen may wear down Jagr over a long series
-The only other line Kazan could use as a checking line(besides its third line) would be its second line, taking away some of the offense they could provide and putting almost all the responsibility on the first line to score goals
i disagree with some of this.

i think my 1st line will be better than yours, b/c my defensive players are stronger, and the line is better constructed. i also think my line is better at ES scoring.

i think my 3rd pairing is better, b/c yours is weak defensively. i think the 2nd pairs are equal, b/c i prefer ramsey to reise. both are defensive d-men, but ramsey was considered elite, was more prominent on his team and had a longer career.


i don't have a problem using ratelle and jagr against a scoring line. jagr tended to dominate possession and keep play in the offensive zone. ratelle was also a good possession player, though based on his 2 way game.






why i think kazan should win:

--- basically, i think kazan's team D erases philadelphia's advantage in offense.
kazan is clearly better defensively, and it is easier to destroy (break up plays) than to create (beat D and score). we have all seen this countless times. my defensive advantage exists in F's, d-men, special teams and coaching.

i also have more elite defensive players. i think of all of philadelphia's players, only salming was an elite defensive player. i would say cleghorn, chara, ramsey, tkaczuk, davidson, nesterenko and modano were elite defensive players.


due to kazan's defensive superiority and the more offensive minded nature of philadelphia, i think my team will be better able to get through the neutral zone.


--- fewer leeches
i think i also have fewer players whose numbers and AS votes were inflated by conditions not present here, such as a large role on PP, and more players who were primary players on their teams.

graves and linden scored a lot on PP, but are not on philadelphia's PP. stanfield and graves played relatively small roles on great PP's. primeau was the 3rd best player on his line. reise was probably usually the 3rd best d-man on his team. dallas smith played in an extremely favorable situation with orr. larson racked up a lot of points on a bad team, but was not good defensively and had little success. boivin was usually not the best d-man on his team (flaman, mohns).


i think stasiuk, svoboda and to a lesser extent andreychuk, are the only such players on my team. andreychuk relied on others for his production, but was independently very good at the net.

jagr, ratelle, modano, palffy, naslund and sometimes smith were the primary offensive players on their teams (smith was generally 2nd but was consistently a very good scorer in the playoffs). tkaczuk, nesterenko and davidson were each the top defensive F on their teams. cleghorn, chara, ramsey, desjardins and johansson were each the top d-man on successful teams.


--- i think kazan will outscore philadelphia at ES.
philadelphia faces against better defensive players, but also i think many of kazan's F's were better ES scorers, and as i said above, were the primary drivers of their teams' offense.

jagr is one of the best ES scorers ever. ratelle, modano, smith, naslund, stasiuk and tkaczuk were very good ES scorers. foligno was a good ES goalscorer.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I want to hear more about the plans on how to deal with Gordie Howe and Jaromir Jagr.

Kazan's planning on giving Howe large helpings of Chara-Cleghorn, which is wise. The plan is to get Davidson out there against Howe. I would like to know more about Davidson's speed and strength to know if he's up for the task. Also, you said you aren't hard matching, so what's the secondary plan.
near the end of his career, davidson had enough speed to shadow maurice richard, who was faster and more dynamic offensively than howe, and was also a physical player. davidson was basically the same size as howe, and was very physical. he was routinely described as rugged, tough, hard-working, etc. an example: http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...n+rugged&hl=en

howe's style was also not based on speed. he was fast, but took long shifts and his game was based more on anticipation and positioning, which is why he was described as relatively unexciting in comparison to richard.


when davidson cannot check howe, i will have to rely on general team D. if howe goes out against my 4th line and 3rd pair, i cannot do much without changing lines.

but i think this highlights problems of philadelphia.

i don't think philadelphia has the personnel to stop my 1st line, and i think their weaker team D and defensive weaknesses are easier to exploit.

my weakest defensive players (jagr, andreychuk, naslund) either have lesser roles and/or play on a great possession line.


Last edited by nik jr: 05-02-2012 at 12:55 PM.
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Old
05-02-2012, 01:11 PM
  #54
TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Absolutely, this is true. With this parity, you can't expect to be good everywhere, hopefully just "good enough". At this stage, when we're about to pare down to 4 teams, taking a sharp knife to players out of place is probably a worthwhile endeavor.



You're right that they're both the 3rd-best member of their line. That is good for both of them, especially Nieuwendyk.

But basically what I'm getting at is, Nieuwendyk is much worse for a 1st line center than Andreychuk is for a 1st line winger. Agree?
Of course Nieuwy ranks lower than Andreychuk among his position. If you take two equal players (and honestly, I'm not convinced Dave is quite Joe's equal), the center will always be ranked lower than the winger among his position, unless that center is Gretzky. Nobody assumes Mario Lemieux = Ted Lindsay because each is #2 at his position.

I get that centers are usually more valuable because they usually are the ones driving puck possession, but Kariya and Howe both had their best seasons on lines where the speedy wings drove puck possession, and center was basically the "glue guy." (Of course for Howe, that glue guy was an aging Hall of Famer himself). The question then becomes, does Nieuwendyk have all-time calibre glue guy skills?

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05-04-2012, 12:35 PM
  #55
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Your winner, in 5 games, is Ak Bars Kazan.

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05-04-2012, 12:41 PM
  #56
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5 games? Really?

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05-04-2012, 12:42 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 View Post
5 games? Really?
nope, not a typo

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05-04-2012, 12:55 PM
  #58
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Good luck to Kazan the rest of the way. I don't agree with the result, but he built a strong team.

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05-04-2012, 01:05 PM
  #59
seventieslord
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The last two points made here by nik are very good ones and very difficult to overcome:

Quote:
--- fewer leeches
i think i also have fewer players whose numbers and AS votes were inflated by conditions not present here, such as a large role on PP, and more players who were primary players on their teams.

graves and linden scored a lot on PP, but are not on philadelphia's PP. stanfield and graves played relatively small roles on great PP's. primeau was the 3rd best player on his line. reise was probably usually the 3rd best d-man on his team. dallas smith played in an extremely favorable situation with orr. larson racked up a lot of points on a bad team, but was not good defensively and had little success. boivin was usually not the best d-man on his team (flaman, mohns).


i think stasiuk, svoboda and to a lesser extent andreychuk, are the only such players on my team. andreychuk relied on others for his production, but was independently very good at the net.

jagr, ratelle, modano, palffy, naslund and sometimes smith were the primary offensive players on their teams (smith was generally 2nd but was consistently a very good scorer in the playoffs). tkaczuk, nesterenko and davidson were each the top defensive F on their teams. cleghorn, chara, ramsey, desjardins and johansson were each the top d-man on successful teams.


--- i think kazan will outscore philadelphia at ES.
philadelphia faces against better defensive players, but also i think many of kazan's F's were better ES scorers, and as i said above, were the primary drivers of their teams' offense.

jagr is one of the best ES scorers ever. ratelle, modano, smith, naslund, stasiuk and tkaczuk were very good ES scorers. foligno was a good ES goalscorer.
when he has a 3rd liner who once led the league in ESP and you have two whose scoring totals were heavily influenced by PP time, it does make one start to wonder where the secondary ES scoring is going to come from for Philly.

A career 2nd liner as a 1st liner on an ATD team probably didn't help either.

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