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Old
05-10-2012, 07:40 AM
  #301
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I'd rather have the 23 year old top 5 pedigree center on my first line than the 26 year old who's never actually produced while there. And if Stafford's a 30 goal scorer so is Staal...

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05-10-2012, 07:48 AM
  #302
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
I'd rather have the 23 year old top 5 pedigree center on my first line than the 26 year old who's never actually produced while there. And if Stafford's a 30 goal scorer so is Staal...
technically no, Staal isn't a 30 goal scorer.


And yeah let's get Drew Stafford a walker so he can get around better.

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05-10-2012, 09:37 AM
  #303
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Stafford is older and has produced at or less than Staal while playing more offensively centered minutes against weaker competition with significantly better linemates. He has nowhere near Staal's upside or positional value. This isn't debatable.

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05-10-2012, 09:41 AM
  #304
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Dude, I've seen Staal play hundreds of games. He's a great player. And I can tell you that he's about as talented as Drew Stafford. I know that's something that you and many others will scoff at, but I'll stake my 25+ year old hockey watching reputation on it. All those plays that Stafford makes that simply do not work? The ones where you kind of think to yourself, "I'm not sure what he was doing there, he probably should have kept it simple and used his strength.". Well, that's Jordan Staal. WANTING to be creative and being played as a #1 center doesn't make you a creative #1 center.

A 30 goal winger making around 4 million for a 20 goal center making around 6 million? Think about it. Put the hype pipe down, and seriously think about it.

J.Staal center positions:
#1oor
#2:Good
#3:Elite
#4:Fire the coach

Stafford RW positions:
#1:Good
#2:Good
#3:Good
#4:Fire the coach
When has Stafford ever been a successful 1st line scorer?

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05-10-2012, 09:57 AM
  #305
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When has Stafford ever been a successful 1st line scorer?
He would be "good" at it. Looked to me like for about 10 games last season the FES line was being treated as the #1 threat against opponents, and he played very good despite that.

I need more of a sample size to form a "poor", "great", or "elite" opinion of his role as a top line winger.

Staal played #1 center for about half a season, and he was awful. So if you like history, there it is. Oh and that's with Neal on his line for a good portion of those games.

Look it, I'm all for adding Staal to the team and I'm cool with giving up some talent in return, and but I don't think the Sabres should be giving up the likes of Stafford + Armia + 1st rounder + whatever. Just because he supposedly said he wants to be a #1 center. I want to be the King of England. Doesn't make it so.

If they bring him in, bring him in to be Staal not something more than the player he already is. Great player, just not your franchise #1 center.

And besides, what good is Staal if you can't form an Ennis-Staal-Stafford line?


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05-10-2012, 10:02 AM
  #306
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30 points in 42 games with a snakebit James Neal and no offensive depth is terrible? What?

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05-10-2012, 10:07 AM
  #307
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
30 points in 42 games with a snakebit James Neal and no offensive depth is terrible? What?
Haha yeah I wouldn't say Neal was hurting Staal's stats any. Definitely the other way around. How did Staal do in the playoffs when the Bolts keyed in on his line?

It's somewhere in between poor and good and I'll error on the side of poor so as to try and keep the crazy trade talk in check. I don't want Regier to get anymore ideas!

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05-10-2012, 10:22 AM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
When has Stafford ever been a successful 1st line scorer?
I just ran some numbers, and, surprisingly, Stafford has been one of the better wingers in terms of ES scoring over the past two seasons. Here's ES pts/60 mins among a bunch of upper-echelon wingers over the past two seasons (I didn't look at every winger on every team):

Nash: 2.36 pts/60 mins
Gaborik: 2.32 pts/60 mins
Vanek: 2.24 pts/60 mins
Iginla: 2.23 pts/60 mins
Parise: 2.18 pts/60 mins
Stafford: 2.18 pts/60 mins
Hartnell: 2.14 pts/60 mins
M. Michalek: 1.91 pts/60 mins
Marleau: 1.9 pts/60 mins
Alfredsson: 1.85 pts/60 mins
D. Brown: 1.84 pts/60 mins
Kovalchuk: 1.77 pts/60 mins

And his numbers aren't as skewed by his big 2010-11 as you might think. He averaged 2.20 pts/60 in 10-11 and 2.16 pts/60 in 11-12--the primary difference was that his PP production, which has ebbed and flowed throughout his career, was much higher in 10-11.

Now, those numbers are just at ES, and some of those other guys have broader skillsets, thereby enhancing their value, but there's little doubt that Stafford, over the past two seasons, has produced at 5-on-5 like a low-end 1st line winger.

I'd never argue that he's worth more than J. Staal, however--I recognize the positional market value aspect, as well as the other things Staal brings to the table. This is aimed more at the let's-run-Stafford-out-of-town-on-a-rail crowd. But the guy produces at ES, at least over the last two seasons.

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05-10-2012, 10:27 AM
  #309
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Issue being, he isn't doing it against first line competition unlike virtually everyone else on that list.

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05-10-2012, 10:31 AM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
I just ran some numbers, and, surprisingly, Stafford has been one of the better wingers in terms of ES scoring over the past two seasons. Here's ES pts/60 mins among a bunch of upper-echelon wingers over the past two seasons (I didn't look at every winger on every team):

Nash: 2.36 pts/60 mins
Gaborik: 2.32 pts/60 mins
Vanek: 2.24 pts/60 mins
Iginla: 2.23 pts/60 mins
Parise: 2.18 pts/60 mins
Stafford: 2.18 pts/60 mins
Hartnell: 2.14 pts/60 mins
M. Michalek: 1.91 pts/60 mins
Marleau: 1.9 pts/60 mins
Alfredsson: 1.85 pts/60 mins
D. Brown: 1.84 pts/60 mins
Kovalchuk: 1.77 pts/60 mins

And his numbers aren't as skewed by his big 2010-11 as you might think. He averaged 2.20 pts/60 in 10-11 and 2.16 pts/60 in 11-12--the primary difference was that his PP production, which has ebbed and flowed throughout his career, was much higher in 10-11.

Now, those numbers are just at ES, and some of those other guys have broader skillsets, thereby enhancing their value, but there's little doubt that Stafford, over the past two seasons, has produced at 5-on-5 like a low-end 1st line winger.

I'd never argue that he's worth more than J. Staal, however--I recognize the positional market value aspect, as well as the other things Staal brings to the table. This is aimed more at the let's-run-Stafford-out-of-town-on-a-rail crowd. But the guy produces at ES, at least over the last two seasons.
Nice.

Also, just one more thing to say about adding Staal. If there's one thing the Sabres have, it's wingers who know how to pass a puck. Guys like Pomminville, Ennis, Vanek, and yeah Stafford and even Leino are pretty good at getting the puck to where they want it to go and creating plays. If Staal wants to come in, get BIG minutes, play a BIG physical style, and bang in goals. He could score 40. He could put up a 40-20 type of 60 point season.

BUT!!

If he wants to reinvent himself into some kind of playmaking center than I'll pass (no pun intended) on giving him 6+ million to be the player he just isn't ever going to be. Somebody is going to give up too much for Staal and expect him to be an 80 point center dishing out passes and scoring goals to. I seriously doubt he will ever be that player. I'm totally cool with Staal the way he plays now, and would be giddy to add him for the right deal, and the right contract. But as hyped up as he is, it looks like that's not going to happen.

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05-10-2012, 10:35 AM
  #311
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Originally Posted by Play4Miracles View Post
He would be "good" at it. Looked to me like for about 10 games last season the FES line was being treated as the #1 threat against opponents, and he played very good despite that.
I don't think the FES line was ever being treated as the #1 line...

Quote:
I need more of a sample size to form a "poor", "great", or "elite" opinion of his role as a top line winger.
funny, since you didn't need more of a sample size to determine that a younger Staal would be a poor #1 center...

Quote:
Staal played #1 center for about half a season, and he was awful. So if you like history, there it is. Oh and that's with Neal on his line for a good portion of those games.
Im assuming you are talking about the late 2010-2011 season when Both Malkin and Crsoby were out.

24 pts in 34 games = .70 pts per game
over 82 games = 57 pts

And that was on a team with very little offensive talent around him, that was playing a clamp down defensive system with Crsoby/Malkin out.

57 pts is the same amount of pts that Ryan Getzlaf put up this year...

Quote:
If they bring him in, bring him in to be Staal not something more than the player he already is. Great player, just not your franchise #1 center.
Yea, why should evaluators of talent (GMs) make decisions based on evaluations.

My personal evaluation, is that Staal is more then capable, ready, and talented enough to be a franchise #1 center.

Your evaluation is different. (but you also think trading Kassian for Hodgson was a horrible move, and thus your credibility is lacking)

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05-10-2012, 10:37 AM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
I just ran some numbers, and, surprisingly, Stafford has been one of the better wingers in terms of ES scoring over the past two seasons. Here's ES pts/60 mins among a bunch of upper-echelon wingers over the past two seasons (I didn't look at every winger on every team):

Nash: 2.36 pts/60 mins
Gaborik: 2.32 pts/60 mins
Vanek: 2.24 pts/60 mins
Iginla: 2.23 pts/60 mins
Parise: 2.18 pts/60 mins
Stafford: 2.18 pts/60 mins
Hartnell: 2.14 pts/60 mins
M. Michalek: 1.91 pts/60 mins
Marleau: 1.9 pts/60 mins
Alfredsson: 1.85 pts/60 mins
D. Brown: 1.84 pts/60 mins
Kovalchuk: 1.77 pts/60 mins

And his numbers aren't as skewed by his big 2010-11 as you might think. He averaged 2.20 pts/60 in 10-11 and 2.16 pts/60 in 11-12--the primary difference was that his PP production, which has ebbed and flowed throughout his career, was much higher in 10-11.

Now, those numbers are just at ES, and some of those other guys have broader skillsets, thereby enhancing their value, but there's little doubt that Stafford, over the past two seasons, has produced at 5-on-5 like a low-end 1st line winger.

I'd never argue that he's worth more than J. Staal, however--I recognize the positional market value aspect, as well as the other things Staal brings to the table. This is aimed more at the let's-run-Stafford-out-of-town-on-a-rail crowd. But the guy produces at ES, at least over the last two seasons.
post those players Quality of Competition to make the #s relevant

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05-10-2012, 10:50 AM
  #313
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Issue being, he isn't doing it against first line competition unlike virtually everyone else on that list.
I think that's a pretty oversimplified statement. For one, of the advanced stats, QualComp is one of my least favorite--especially when looking at wingers--because it relies heavily on a relatively flawed statistic: plus-minus. Many of the better defensive forwards have terrible plus-minus numbers because they're consistently playing good offensive forwards--for instance, in 2006-07, Anaheim's shutdown line of Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer had the three worst +/- numbers of any Ducks who played at least 35 games, so that would hurt opposing forwards' QualComp numbers even though they were playing Anaheim's best defensive forward group, which demonstrates its limited value for forwards. Further, in 2010-11, Mark Letestu had a better QualComp than Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Does anyone in their right minds think Penguins opponents were focusing on Mark Letestu ahead of Sid and Malkin? No, but Letestu was earning tougher defensive minutes, especially once Sid and Malkin were both out of the lineup. QualComp is a better stat for defensemen and is limited for forwards, and even more limited for wingers.

Stafford is not cast against other teams' best offensive forwards. But other teams' best offensive forwards--who usually have the better +/- numbers--aren't necessarily those teams' best defensive forwards. In many cases, a primarly offensive-oriented player like Stafford is going to have a lower QualComp because he sees better checkers, who often have worse +/- numbers, which is the primary input of QualComp.

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05-10-2012, 10:51 AM
  #314
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
post those players Quality of Competition to make the #s relevant
Qualcomp is a measure of the offensive prowess of opponents, not defensive (last season, for example, scoring against the Sedins was considered "more difficult" than scoring against Kesler). That being said, the guys I looked over briefly (Iggy, Marleau, Hartnell, Parise, Michalek) were all top 3 on their team at least one of the past two seasons. Drew has been a consistent 8th among Sabres forwards.

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05-10-2012, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
I think that's a pretty oversimplified statement. For one, of the advanced stats, QualComp is one of my least favorite--especially when looking at wingers--because it relies heavily on a relatively flawed statistic: plus-minus. Many of the better defensive forwards have terrible plus-minus numbers because they're consistently playing good offensive forwards--for instance, in 2006-07, Anaheim's shutdown line of Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer had the three worst +/- numbers of any Ducks who played at least 35 games, so that would hurt opposing forwards' QualComp numbers, which demonstrates its limited value for forwards. Further, in 2010-11, Mark Letestu had a better QualComp than Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Does anyone in their right minds think Penguins opponents were focusing on Mark Letestu ahead of Sid and Malkin? QualComp is a better stat for defensemen and is limited for forwards, and even more limited for wingers.

Stafford is not cast against other teams' best offensive forwards. But other teams' best offensive forwards--who usually have the better +/- numbers--aren't necessarily those teams' best defensive forwards. In many cases, a primarly offensive-oriented player like Stafford is going to have a lower QualComp because he sees better checkers, who often have worse +/- numbers, which is the primary input of QualComp.
I understand that- see my post above.

But do you really think Drew draws top checking assignments? There isn't a metric for it, but I doubt it. That's what I meant by "first line competition."

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05-10-2012, 10:54 AM
  #316
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I don't think the FES line was ever being treated as the #1 line...



funny, since you didn't need more of a sample size to determine that a younger Staal would be a poor #1 center...



Im assuming you are talking about the late 2010-2011 season when Both Malkin and Crsoby were out.

24 pts in 34 games = .70 pts per game
over 82 games = 57 pts

And that was on a team with very little offensive talent around him, that was playing a clamp down defensive system with Crsoby/Malkin out.

57 pts is the same amount of pts that Ryan Getzlaf put up this year...



Yea, why should evaluators of talent (GMs) make decisions based on evaluations.

My personal evaluation, is that Staal is more then capable, ready, and talented enough to be a franchise #1 center.

Your evaluation is different. (but you also think trading Kassian for Hodgson was a horrible move, and thus your credibility is lacking)

OMG you're right they should totally pay him 6 million and dump Stafford, Armia, Enroth, and a couple 1st rounders!

I mean good god and the goose fat 57 points!!!

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05-10-2012, 10:55 AM
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Qualcomp is a measure of the offensive prowess of opponents, not defensive (last season, for example, scoring against the Sedins was considered "more difficult" than scoring against Kesler). That being said, the guys I looked over briefly (Iggy, Marleau, Hartnell, Parise, Michalek) were all top 3 on their team at least one of the past two seasons. Drew has been a consistent 8th among Sabres forwards.
QualComp is the Average Relative Plus-Minus of opposing players, weighted by head-to-head ice time.

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05-10-2012, 11:03 AM
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OMG you're right they should totally pay him 6 million and dump Stafford, Armia, Enroth, and a couple 1st rounders!

I mean good god and the goose fat 57 points!!!
You said he was awful as a #1 center... I pointed out that he produced offensively, like a top line center within a defensive minded system, and took a team that lost both it's super stars to the playoffs.

Not sure what's so shabby about 57 pts... David Backes scored 54 this year... he's a #1 franchise center. Getzlaf scored 57... he's a #1 franchise center. Mike Richards scored 44 in 74 games...

and even this year, when he was a top 6 center for the majority of the season, he played at a 66 pt pace.

wake up

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05-10-2012, 11:05 AM
  #319
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Qualcomp is a measure of the offensive prowess of opponents, not defensive (last season, for example, scoring against the Sedins was considered "more difficult" than scoring against Kesler). That being said, the guys I looked over briefly (Iggy, Marleau, Hartnell, Parise, Michalek) were all top 3 on their team at least one of the past two seasons. Drew has been a consistent 8th among Sabres forwards.
Which is why I qualified my post by talking about broader skillsets. Plus, at least vis-a-vis scoring numbers, QualComp doesn't really tell us who's playing the better defensive competition--it's telling us who's playing the better +/- guys, and many times that's not necessarily the opponents' best defensive players for many reasons (they get higher% defensive zone starts, playing better competition, etc.).

We can't look at QualComp and say Stafford is scoring against worse defensive competition. We can look at QualComp and say Stafford isn't playing against as strong of +/- competition--which we've seen sometimes has an inverse correlation with actual defensive ability, especially among forwards. Stafford plays with two very good defensive RWs, which will hurt his QualComp numbers because those guys will be playing the opponents' better offensive forwards.

And he'll perpetually be third among Sabres RWs in QualComp because Kaleta gets a huge amount of defensive zone starts--and opponents' better offensive forwards (who usually have the best +/- numbers) will be getting heavy offensive-zone starts--and Pominville usually gets the head-up tough matchups when we're playing top line vs top line.
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
I understand that- see my post above.

But do you really think Drew draws top checking assignments? There isn't a metric for it, but I doubt it. That's what I meant by "first line competition."
Look at the post I was initially responding to from Jame. It was pertaining to his scoring not overall checking assignments, etc.

Again, I'm not trying to derail the thread, just pointing out that Stafford has produced offensively like a low-end 1st line winger. I'd absolutely make a package around Stafford for someone like J Staal.

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05-10-2012, 11:14 AM
  #320
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
I think that's a pretty oversimplified statement. For one, of the advanced stats, QualComp is one of my least favorite--especially when looking at wingers--because it relies heavily on a relatively flawed statistic: plus-minus. Many of the better defensive forwards have terrible plus-minus numbers because they're consistently playing good offensive forwards--for instance, in 2006-07, Anaheim's shutdown line of Moen-Pahlsson-Niedermayer had the three worst +/- numbers of any Ducks who played at least 35 games, so that would hurt opposing forwards' QualComp numbers even though they were playing Anaheim's best defensive forward group, which demonstrates its limited value for forwards. Further, in 2010-11, Mark Letestu had a better QualComp than Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Does anyone in their right minds think Penguins opponents were focusing on Mark Letestu ahead of Sid and Malkin? No, but Letestu was earning tougher defensive minutes, especially once Sid and Malkin were both out of the lineup. QualComp is a better stat for defensemen and is limited for forwards, and even more limited for wingers.

Stafford is not cast against other teams' best offensive forwards. But other teams' best offensive forwards--who usually have the better +/- numbers--aren't necessarily those teams' best defensive forwards. In many cases, a primarly offensive-oriented player like Stafford is going to have a lower QualComp because he sees better checkers, who often have worse +/- numbers, which is the primary input of QualComp.
That's a fair argument.... my counter would be, don't post misleading comparisons then...

Jiri Judler 2.22 ES Pts per game

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05-10-2012, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post


Look at the post I was initially responding to from Jame. It was pertaining to his scoring not overall checking assignments, etc.

Again, I'm not trying to derail the thread, just pointing out that Stafford has produced offensively like a low-end 1st line winger. I'd absolutely make a package around Stafford for someone like J Staal.
I think there's a difference between saying :
"He's produced the type of #s you'd expect from a low end 1st winger"

vs

"He's been successful AS a 1st line winger"

Stafford, has been successful, in the exact opposite sense of a 1st line winger... He's been successful when he's been able to play behind lines getting top checking assignments, and he's been able to produce on that "3rd scoring line" seeing the weaker matchups (which is what he's done when he's been with Ennis for the most part, over the last 2 seasons)

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05-10-2012, 11:22 AM
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Again, I'm not trying to derail the thread, just pointing out that Stafford has produced offensively like a low-end 1st line winger. I'd absolutely make a package around Stafford for someone like J Staal.
I was going to type my opinion on Stafford, but instead I'll just agree with this.

I was in the camp of trade him high when took off 2 years ago, but I think he's still getting better as a player.
Keep him or trade him, either way I'm neutral on Nancy.

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05-10-2012, 11:23 AM
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I think there's a difference between saying :
"He's produced the type of #s you'd expect from a low end 1st winger"

vs

"He's been successful AS a 1st line winger"

Stafford, has been successful, in the exact opposite sense of a 1st line winger... He's been successful when he's been able to play behind lines getting top checking assignments, and he's been able to produce on that "3rd scoring line" seeing the weaker matchups (which is what he's done when he's been with Ennis for the most part, over the last 2 seasons)
With all the line juggling that Ruff does, until he hit FES wasn't Stafford all over the place in regards to "what line" he was on?

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05-10-2012, 11:41 AM
  #324
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Not a be-all-end-all or anything, but Staffords first page of goals are against the likes of Hamerlik, Schultz, Staal, MDZ, etc. Not Alzner, not McDonaugh.

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05-10-2012, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kirby11 View Post
hmmm...that's tempting to do from a sabres fan perspective except for enroth. i can deal with losing stafford. losing mcnabb would hurt, but getting staal in return would ease the pain, and we have a boatload of pretty good defensemen in our system. but enroth is the first decent backup we've had since marty biron left. would you still do that trade if the sabres threw in a 2nd rounder instead of enroth?
Nope. I'm going after needs if I trade Staal. I don't need a 2nd. I need a backup though.

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