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04-26-2012, 09:23 AM
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
I don't mind having one of Hodgson or Ennis catch easier competition on a given night. If they role with what they have, Vanek-Hodgson-Tropp gives them a strong low-cycle game and in-tight finish. Foligno-Ennis-Stafford gives them some of that but a lot of transition game chances. XXXX-Staal-Pominville would be an interesting duo and if the XXXX is Leino, a lot of puck possession to go along with very good defense out of 2/3rds of that line. Pominville seems like the ideal winger for someone like Staal -- they can go out and play a simple, sound game and put up more points than their checking assignment.
bingo... if you can pull that type of matchup throughout the year, and win on the +/- matchup of "My top line vs Your top line", you are well on your way to contending.

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04-26-2012, 09:32 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
bingo... if you can pull that type of matchup throughout the year, and win on the +/- matchup of "My top line vs Your top line", you are well on your way to contending.

Especially given the FES/VHT possibilities against 2nd and 3rd pairings, the mis-matches cascade down the lineup.

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04-26-2012, 09:34 AM
  #78
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Especially given the FES/VHT possibilities against 2nd and 3rd pairings, the mis-matches cascade down the lineup.
we are completely on the same page

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04-26-2012, 10:17 AM
  #79
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From Buffalo's standpoint, it's semi counter-productive to include Ennis in a deal for Staal. From Pitt's standpoint, they need bigger d-men (ex Gill, Scuderi) that were sorely missed against Philly. They also can't take much cap room in return given the challenge they face. I don't think Sekera is the player they'd want, but maybe McNabb.

Unless Pitt is happy with picks/prospects, I highly doubt there is a package for Staal that is really worth it for Buffalo. Pitt is likely to want McNabb plus other players that we can't afford to lose. I'd much prefer (since we don't realistically look like a Cup contender next season) to find a center in the draft. Even if it means overpaying some to move up, in a similar fashion of overpaying for Staal, at least we get a player for cheap and under contract control for many years, as opposed to Staal for possibly just one season.

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04-26-2012, 10:24 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Sabresfansince1980 View Post
From Buffalo's standpoint, it's semi counter-productive to include Ennis in a deal for Staal. From Pitt's standpoint, they need bigger d-men (ex Gill, Scuderi) that were sorely missed against Philly. They also can't take much cap room in return given the challenge they face. I don't think Sekera is the player they'd want, but maybe McNabb.

Unless Pitt is happy with picks/prospects, I highly doubt there is a package for Staal that is really worth it for Buffalo. Pitt is likely to want McNabb plus other players that we can't afford to lose. I'd much prefer (since we don't realistically look like a Cup contender next season) to find a center in the draft. Even if it means overpaying some to move up, in a similar fashion of overpaying for Staal, at least we get a player for cheap and under contract control for many years, as opposed to Staal for possibly just one season.
Why wouldn't they be happy w/ picks/prospects (and ELCs) ?

If Cap is an issue, and they intend to maintain their core (Crosby, Malkin), then they should be looking to build the young, and inexpensive talent around them)

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04-26-2012, 10:37 AM
  #81
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Here comes the true jbuddy colors: why are we including Sekera? We finally have a formidable unit with him a main IMPORTANT piece of it.

I am all for getting Staal. I'd leave Myers/Ehrhoff/Sekera out of the package, though, and yes, dealbreaker. Flame away.

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04-26-2012, 10:40 AM
  #82
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To add... Our D when the aforementioned three were all in at the same time was good. Add in Regehr, and the entity role that Leo fills, and it's a solid unit. Use forwards and futures or prospects to throw at them - just please don't ruin my defense in the process.

SO many attractive D prospects in our pipeline to use as bait. I understand Pitt may want a roster dman but again, those three break a deal.

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04-26-2012, 10:45 AM
  #83
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Im sure Pittsburgh would like a good roster Dman. They have Joe Morrow, Simon Despres and Scott Harrington in the pipeline.

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04-26-2012, 10:55 AM
  #84
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Armia, McNabb, Buf 1st for Staal if you're going picks & prospects???

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04-26-2012, 10:56 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by static80 View Post
You completely failed to take into consideration the very reason both Staal and Hodgson alike, would or already have excepted the move. Which is their desire to compete in a role that was or is above the roles they have or do now play.

If Ennis was going back to wing, then I can see where "maybe", bringing Jordan Staal in would be something to consider. But the truth is I don't see the organization removing Ennis from the center position, at least, not until they are forced to.

That leaves 3 centers, and Ennis's line is most likely considered the 1 or 2 line, which means they would most likely see the critical situation minutes more often than a 3rd line.

We acquire Staal, and either Staal or Hodgson have to field the center position on a diminished talent line, or 3rd line. Both of these players desire to be impact players, not to stay in the respective roles they have or currently now do play.
You do realize how ridiculous the argument that Staal would be in the same situation here that he is in Pittsburgh right? I didn't know that Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson were equal to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Staal would have a legit chance at competing for the Sabres' number one center spot. He does not even have a remote shot at it on the Pens. There's no way he should get more ice time than Crosby or Malkin. You can definitely make the argument that he could/should get more ice time than Hodgson and Ennis. He would have a real shot at competing with those two for the top center spot. The situation Staal would be in here is nothing like the one he is in in Pittsburgh.

The same thing applies for Hodgson. Tyler Ennis and Jordan Staal are definitely not equal to Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler. Hodgson has a shot at competing for one of the top two center spots here that he would never get with those two ahead of him in Vancouver.

That's the huge difference between Hodgson and Staal's situations here and with their former teams. Here they can compete for a top six center spot, on their old teams they could not.


Last edited by ADoubleD: 04-26-2012 at 11:04 AM.
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04-26-2012, 11:16 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by ADoubleD View Post
You do realize how ridiculous the argument that Staal would be in the same situation here that he is in Pittsburgh right? I didn't know that Tyler Ennis and Cody Hodgson were equal to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Staal would have a legit chance at competing for the Sabres' number one center spot. He does not even have a remote shot at it on the Pens. There's no way he should get more ice time than Crosby or Malkin. You can definitely make the argument that he could/should get more ice time than Hodgson and Ennis. He would have a real shot at competing with those two for the top center spot. The situation Staal would be in here is nothing like the one he is in in Pittsburgh.

The same thing applies for Hodgson. Tyler Ennis and Jordan Staal are definitely not equal to Henrik Sedin and Ryan Kesler. Hodgson has a shot at competing for one of the top two center spots here that he would never get with those two ahead of him in Vancouver.

That's the huge difference between Hodgson and Staal's situations here and with their former teams. Here they can compete for a top six center spot, on their old teams they could not.
Nothing better than competition for roster spots. Could/should bring out the best in all of them.

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04-26-2012, 11:33 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Why wouldn't they be happy w/ picks/prospects (and ELCs) ?

If Cap is an issue, and they intend to maintain their core (Crosby, Malkin), then they should be looking to build the young, and inexpensive talent around them)
I don't know either way, but 95% of these trade proposals involve roster players. Buffalo should look to use their picks in a Staal deal, and then trade Roy afterward. Even still, a Staal deal should be contingent on a contract extension first. If Staal doesn't agree to a new contract with Buffalo as part of a trade, forget it. No picks, prospects, or roster players are worth any player for one season when the team isn't in position to be a legit Cup contender. I don't happen to think Staal would lean toward agreeing to a new long-term deal with a playoff no-show team one year before hitting the jackpot as a UFA.

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04-26-2012, 11:35 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Sabresfansince1980 View Post
I don't know either way, but 95% of these trade proposals involve roster players. Buffalo should look to use their picks in a Staal deal, and then trade Roy afterward. Even still, a Staal deal should be contingent on a contract extension first. If Staal doesn't agree to a new contract with Buffalo as part of a trade, forget it. No picks, prospects, or roster players are worth any player for one season when the team isn't in position to be a legit Cup contender. I don't happen to think Staal would lean toward agreeing to a new long-term deal with a playoff no-show team one year before hitting the jackpot as a UFA.
Pegula would allow Regier to offer Staal $20M in cash in the first two years of a long term deal. I'm betting that would get Staal to sign on the dotted line.

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04-26-2012, 11:37 AM
  #89
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Here comes the true jbuddy colors: why are we including Sekera? We finally have a formidable unit with him a main IMPORTANT piece of it.

I am all for getting Staal. I'd leave Myers/Ehrhoff/Sekera out of the package, though, and yes, dealbreaker. Flame away.
I'm for this, but if they wanted to send us Orpik and Staal for a package that included Sekera I would listen. Orpik is basically Sekera with a physical edge, but you have to wonder how many quality years he has left.

Ehrhoff and Myers names wouldn't come up unless Malkin is being shopped.

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04-26-2012, 11:37 AM
  #90
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We can't expect or hope that Pegula cash would lure Staal to stay. That will HAVE to be settled for a trade to make any sense.

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04-26-2012, 11:45 AM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Sabresfansince1980 View Post
I don't know either way, but 95% of these trade proposals involve roster players. Buffalo should look to use their picks in a Staal deal, and then trade Roy afterward. Even still, a Staal deal should be contingent on a contract extension first. If Staal doesn't agree to a new contract with Buffalo as part of a trade, forget it. No picks, prospects, or roster players are worth any player for one season when the team isn't in position to be a legit Cup contender. I don't happen to think Staal would lean toward agreeing to a new long-term deal with a playoff no-show team one year before hitting the jackpot as a UFA.
Really? You think that Staal's agent would tell him to say no to the type of long term deal Jame suggested earlier in the range of 10 years $60 mil total? Not saying he should or would get a deal like that, but if the Sabres were to trade for him and lock him up to a long term deal before the season starts he's guaranteed a huge deal. If he doesn't he'd be taking a risk. He could either get hurt and miss significant time, or struggle and have a poor season hurting his value in FA. If he signed long term with the Sabres not long after being traded here he avoids that risk.

There's no guarantee that he'd have the season he'd hope to have in order to cash in big in FA, and signing before the season gives him security. If the Sabres offer him a good enough deal, and he likes it here then I don't see why him signing after being traded would be that far-fetched.

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04-26-2012, 11:51 AM
  #92
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I would LOVE having Staal. I'm just not sure what Shero would be satisfied with in return. Jame's probably right -- if we can get him short of relinquishing Ennis, Hodgson or Myers, it's probably worth it. I wonder if Shero would be interested in a combination of picks and players.

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So if I understand your logic correctly. Not having Crosby or Malkin as his center may be what's been holding Vanek back from his true potential all these years.
No, perhaps a poor choice of words. I'm curious as to what pairing him with an elite center would do for his game. Besides, everyone likes to see elite wingers with elite centermen.

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04-26-2012, 11:55 AM
  #93
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Maybe he wants to win a Cup on his own and not in the shadow of Crosby/Malkin. Maybe he figures that even if Buffalo threw a huge contract at him that other teams will do the same, competing against each other, when he hits the open market. Maybe he's the type to want to play in a big media market. We don't know either way. I don't think it's such a long shot for Buffalo to be able to sign him pending a trade, but I also don't think Pegula money will be an overwhelming factor to draw him either.

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04-26-2012, 12:03 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by Sabresfansince1980 View Post
Maybe he wants to win a Cup on his own and not in the shadow of Crosby/Malkin. Maybe he figures that even if Buffalo threw a huge contract at him that other teams will do the same, competing against each other, when he hits the open market. Maybe he's the type to want to play in a big media market. We don't know either way. I don't think it's such a long shot for Buffalo to be able to sign him pending a trade, but I also don't think Pegula money will be an overwhelming factor to draw him either.
Well obviously there's plenty Of things that could effect where he wants to play, but the point is that money won't be an issue for the Sabres. If you throw a big deal offer at him it gets his attention, and IMO will get him to consider Buffalo more carefully which could lead to him liking Buffalo and wanting to play here.

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04-26-2012, 12:38 PM
  #95
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I was looking at the Carter trade as a comparable for Staal. Can we agree that Staal has at least that much value?
No, I don't agree with that at all. You're overvaluing Staal significantly. I'm going to compare Staal and Carter. For kicks, I'm also going to throw in Derek Roy, since I believe Roy + 1st is more than comparable value. Whether that trade would actually work is not my argument.

First some notes about my analysis. When I say "relative to their teammates," I have filtered the data to include only forwards on their team with more than ten games played. For Jordan Staal and Derek Roy, I am using 2011-2012 data, for Jeff Carter I am using 2010-2011 data since that was the season he was traded.

First, their roles. I was surprised to learn that all three had similar, defensive roles. I am measuring this with Corsi Quality of Competition (relative to their teammates) and %Offensive Zone Starts rank (relative to their teammates).

Corsi Rel QoC (Rank Compared to Teammates)
Staal: 1.461 (1st of 19)
Roy: 0.770 (2nd of 16)
Carter: 0.896 (1st of 14)

%OZONE Starts (Rank Compared to Teammates)
Staal: 47.8% (15th of 19)
Roy: 48.9% (13th of 16)
Carter: 43.7% (9th of 14)


Now, their offensive production. I am going to use their career totals for this category. Keep in mind that Staal has Crosby and Malkin getting all the attention, practically guaranteeing third pairing opposition. Carter and Roy do not have that luxury. Roy leads the group, with Carter right behind him. Staal is a distant third.

-----------Goals/Game------Assists/Game-------Points/Game
Staal -------- 0.28--------------0.30--------------0.58
Roy ----------0.29--------------0.48--------------0.78
Carter --------0.39--------------0.34--------------0.75


Now, contract status at the time of their real or hypothetical trade. Carter is $1.2M more expensive and the long contract has benefits and negatives. Since the Sabres or any other team would presumably be trading for Staal to build around, Staal's contract status is a big negative.

Cap Hit (Years Remaining)
Staal: $4.0M (1)
Roy: $4.0M (1)
Carter: $5.2M (11)

Finally, physical attributes. Carter and Staal are very similar in size. Roy is obviously much smaller.

Height (Weight)
Staal: 6'4" (220)
Roy: 5'9" (184)
Carter: 6'3" (200)


Staal and Carter had very similar roles, are very similar in size, and Carter has managed a heck of a lot more production over his career. Not to mention, the Staal trade would be for only a single guaranteed year, instead of the long term guarantee with Carter.

In actuality, Roy and Staal are pretty comparable. The Sabres would be trading offensive production for size and youth. Since they're both on 1 year deals, age isn't all that relevant. So it's basically trading offensive production for size. The extra draft pick is basically paying for Staal's reputation.

Bottom line, I don't think the Carter deal is comparable at all. Roy + something should be comparable value.

EDIT: Fixed Corsi Rel QoC. Inadvertently used Corsi Rel the first time.

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04-26-2012, 12:59 PM
  #96
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Some of these proposals are ludicrous. Absolutely asinine to trade them for Staal

Roy Armia and Sekera for Staal? hahahah for Eric Staal maybe, not Jordan Staal who averages 47 points/82 games (which btw Is only 3 points more then Roy had in an "off" year)

Also, at Staal's age Roy had a 60+ point season while playing behind 2 #1 centers... So what's Staal's excuse?

Even with his monster series offensively ( scoring meaningless goals) his playoff PPG is under .5... That's exactly what we need, a guy to score under 4 points every 7 game series

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04-26-2012, 01:13 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Here comes the true jbuddy colors: why are we including Sekera? We finally have a formidable unit with him a main IMPORTANT piece of it.

I am all for getting Staal. I'd leave Myers/Ehrhoff/Sekera out of the package, though, and yes, dealbreaker. Flame away.
I'm astonished that Sekera would be a deal breaker for you. Sekera's our third defenseman and depending on how McNabb develops he could be our 4th. IMO that should not be a deal breaker for a player like Staal.

The layout Chain gave with FES, VHT, Leino-Staal-Pominville gives us three strong lines that can all score. I don't see why a second pairing defenseman should be a deal breaker for a Center of Staal's caliber.

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04-26-2012, 01:15 PM
  #98
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I'm going to kill the Roy talk right now. The Penguins do not want, and will not accept Roy as part of any trade proposal for Staal. That is all.

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04-26-2012, 01:19 PM
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Those that want to trade Vanek for Staal, remember in part the reason Staal is getting traded is because it would seem likely that the Pens can't afford him, so I doubt they are trading for Vanek's cap hit.

Staal for Roy, Sekera, and the Sabre's first this year.

Despite Roy's stats, his reputation is poison in the league from all accounts. Basically he is an add in to me to give them depth for the year at c. Sekera is the centerpiece, for the Pens obvious needs at defense. The first is for the difference in value between a center and a defenseman, especially the size difference between the players. Sekera's cap hit is a big factor in why he has so much value to the Pen's in particular since they are low on cap space.

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04-26-2012, 01:22 PM
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I'm going to kill the Roy talk right now. The Penguins do not want, and will not accept Roy as part of any trade proposal for Staal. That is all.
And you know this how?

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