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"The Greiss is Always Greener" (Off-Season Speculation Part II)

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Old
04-29-2012, 11:49 PM
  #351
murdock1116
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CloweForbidzYou View Post
Ive grown to keeping Marleau. But not as throntons LW. He has to be the #2 center if he stays. Couture-Marleau-Havlat is an excellent line #2.

But Pavelski and Clowe are HORRIBLE wingers for Thorntons and both must be traded if Marleau is kept IMO.

Murray, Boyle, pavelski, Clowe are all very good pieces to trade off to get young, more physical and quicker.

Trade Clowe+Murray to Toronto for Kulemin+Biggs+2nd

Trade Pavelski +1st + Tor 2nd + #55 to Chicago for Patty Kane

Trade Boyle to the NYI for Nino + Bailey + mid lvl prospect
Kulemin-Thornton-Patty Kane
Couture-Marleau-Havlat
Winnik-Bailey- FA RW
Galliardi-Desjardins-Wingels

Vlasic-Burns
Carle-Stuart
Braun-Demers

Niemi
Greiss

No idea if these work cap wise, or if the other teams accept these trades (especially the Kane one, CHI does need a good 2nd line C though)

Nino goes to the minors, Biggs stays in NCAA,
Pavelski and Clowe for Heatley and Setoguchi

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Old
04-30-2012, 12:09 AM
  #352
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Originally Posted by sjshark91 View Post
I absolutely LOVE the Full House reference! solid

and yes, the lines were intended to piss people off who want dramatic changes. it seems more likely that DW will maintain the status quo


Last edited by thrillermiller89: 04-30-2012 at 12:14 AM.
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04-30-2012, 12:11 AM
  #353
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Originally Posted by crunchyblack View Post
You really think the most likely scenario for next season is DW NOT making any moves after a fast first round exit? I think trading Marleau is more likely than that.
sometimes DW can be quite boring... we dont have much cap space and we have a lot of players with NTC/NMC.... so perhaps some very uninspiring and very dull moves are on the horizon

the lines i provided each have at least ONE "fast" player.... so that's a start

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04-30-2012, 12:12 AM
  #354
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Originally Posted by Gene Parmesan View Post
Im sure they will find someone better than Benny.
but benny has all those GWG's

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04-30-2012, 12:13 AM
  #355
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Originally Posted by do0glas View Post
Looks like a definite 2 seed team to me.
one can only hope

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04-30-2012, 12:16 AM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillermiller89 View Post
I absolutely LOVE the Full House reference! solid

and yes, the lines were intended to piss people off who want dramatic changes. it seems more likely that DW will maintain the status quo
DW never maintained the status quo when their seasons were deemed successful. What makes you think he would when it isn't?

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Old
04-30-2012, 12:21 AM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
DW never maintained the status quo when their seasons were deemed successful. What makes you think he would when it isn't?
Shake things up?

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Old
04-30-2012, 12:22 AM
  #358
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Originally Posted by Rickety Cricket View Post
Shake things up?
"There will be changes"

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04-30-2012, 12:27 AM
  #359
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There...will...be...blood!

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Old
04-30-2012, 12:35 AM
  #360
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I will be surprised if Clowe or Murray are back next season, shocked if both are.

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Old
04-30-2012, 02:50 AM
  #361
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Originally Posted by KirbyDots View Post
People need to stop proposing so much turnover of players. Replacing too many people in the offseason was one of the things that hurt us this year, no chemistry. We should be focused on bringing in free agents to help our needs, which are not nearly as significant as the doomsayers would have you believe. I think we should bring in two forwards and a d. One elite or close to it forward to play with Jumbo on the top line and either a tweener to either round out the third or a faster replacement for Clowe. Stuart has been discussed so much that I think people are taking it for granted that he signs here, I hope he does. If not we should look for a more mobile 2way D for the bottom pairing or to pair with Boyle.
You say we need to stop the player turnover, but then propose almost as much turnover as last year?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
Thank you. All we need is to get rid of Murray and bring in a young tweener or a top-4 LH-PMD. This line-up doesn't need more defense, it needs more offense. And it needs team chemistry.
I don't want more of the same! I'm sick of that status quo around here. It's the same players, the same system, the same failures, and the same excuses. The team as it sits is pretty good but not good enough, and certainly not getting any better. I'm just sick of it all. All the excuses, and the promises to get it right next year. Every year something goes wrong. 08-09 everyone gets injured and the team "lacks grit," 09-10 we can't score against Chicago, 10-11 Vancouver exposes our brutal defense, so we shore up the D and then against the Blues we can't score again. The core has had chance after chance after chance. And the worst thing? We have nothing to look forward to! Honest to God, we have no prospects and a farm team that no one seems to care about. I not even thinking about the cup anymore. I'm just dying to see something new.

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Old
04-30-2012, 03:03 AM
  #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StalockSuperfan View Post
I don't want more of the same! I'm sick of that status quo around here. It's the same players, the same system, the same failures, and the same excuses. The team as it sits is pretty good but not good enough, and certainly not getting any better. I'm just sick of it all. All the excuses, and the promises to get it right next year. Every year something goes wrong. 08-09 everyone gets injured and the team "lacks grit," 09-10 we can't score against Chicago, 10-11 Vancouver exposes our brutal defense, so we shore up the D and then against the Blues we can't score again. The core has had chance after chance after chance. And the worst thing? We have nothing to look forward to! Honest to God, we have no prospects and a farm team that no one seems to care about. I not even thinking about the cup anymore. I'm just dying to see something new.
You just wrote basically what's been wrong with this organization for the past few years. Change for change's sake. Havlat played 40 games (maybe). Pavelski had never, ever played with Thornton and very little with Marleau. None of the team had played with Havlat.

Give this team a chance to build chemistry with each other for more than one season. I honestly think that we could up our offensive production just by team work.

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04-30-2012, 03:41 AM
  #363
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
You just wrote basically what's been wrong with this organization for the past few years. Change for change's sake. Havlat played 40 games (maybe). Pavelski had never, ever played with Thornton and very little with Marleau. None of the team had played with Havlat.

Give this team a chance to build chemistry with each other for more than one season. I honestly think that we could up our offensive production just by team work.
How are any of these moves change for change's sake? Every summer we fix whatever our weakness was in that playoffs, only to expose another. At some point you just gotta start fresh.

As for your argument, Philly is vastly different than last year. Nashville made big deadline changes and even added Radulov after. They seem ok. Florida showed tremendous ability to develop quick chemistry. LA added Richards and Carter, a much bigger change than Pavs moving up to the first line. Not only is chemistry overrated, it's not that hard to develop. This is all just another excuse to me.

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04-30-2012, 10:05 AM
  #364
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due to havlats injury, i think its jumping the gun to see too much change in the top 6.

pavs had more points last year away from thornton. so id say you are wasting him in that winger spot. havlat out of all the top 6 might benefit from thornton the most.

id rather have a 20 goal scorer on my third line than a 30 goal scorer on thorntons line. and i think thornton really went out of his way to find pavelski this season, so that first line needs more fluidity i guess. or thornton just needs to take it himself more.

couture (30-40)-thornton(20)-havlat (20-30)
clowe (should be 20, likely traded)-marleau (30)-UFA
winnik (10-15)-pavelski(20-25)-wingels (5-10)
galiardi (5-10)-desjardins (5-10)-mitchell (10)

this year it was

desjardins/wingels (5 total?)thornton(20)-pavs (30)
clowe (15)-couture(30)-marleau (30) havlat (7)

i know those arent exact goal totals.

no one in the bottom six got close to 10 except torrey mitchell. we were extremely top heavy this season with too much flux in the bottom six. talk about no chemistry. cycling 4th liners into the first line so thornton could baby sit them. wingels did well as a forechecker, but he was rarely a threat and desjardins i didnt like up there at all. what did we expect? we sent out two top 6 players for a top 6 and a blue liner. so we went into the season with less forwards. and absolutely 0 tweeners.

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Old
04-30-2012, 10:31 AM
  #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
DW never maintained the status quo when their seasons were deemed successful. What makes you think he would when it isn't?
i feel like DW's hands are tied. The team is close to the cap limit, and we have a slew of guys with NTC/NMC. That really hinders a team's ability to do much unless you get a guy to waive.

Beyond that, if a player, or players, without these clauses are moved, I'd imagine they are clowe and/or murray.

We've known that DW has shopped clowe in the past, maybe he actually trades him. And murray is one dimensional. I would love to keep him on the bottom pairing but not at his salary.

we'll see what happens, but im not holding my breath.

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04-30-2012, 10:32 AM
  #366
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I think the decision that Pavs had to be moved off the third line this year clearly failed. There's nothing wrong with him, but I honestly blame the Thornton-Pav pairing to be what iced out Marleau for much of the season, and Todd only adjusted for it in game 4 of the playoffs.

I agree to some extent that Pav is wasted on a third line, but we are center heavy and there's nothing wrong with having a defensively minded, scoring-able third line, with a top 5 face off guy in the circle... I agree with the above that finding a spot for Marleau to center is essential, but we have 4 guys that legitimately deserve to take every face off they see and all four played on the top line this year. Something's gotta give.

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Old
04-30-2012, 10:43 AM
  #367
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i could see...

clowe and murray for kulemin and gunnarsson

we get younger, faster, and i think more room under the cap


Last edited by thrillermiller89: 04-30-2012 at 10:50 AM.
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Old
04-30-2012, 10:47 AM
  #368
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Originally Posted by StalockSuperfan View Post
How are any of these moves change for change's sake? Every summer we fix whatever our weakness was in that playoffs, only to expose another. At some point you just gotta start fresh.

As for your argument, Philly is vastly different than last year. Nashville made big deadline changes and even added Radulov after. They seem ok. Florida showed tremendous ability to develop quick chemistry. LA added Richards and Carter, a much bigger change than Pavs moving up to the first line. Not only is chemistry overrated, it's not that hard to develop. This is all just another excuse to me.
Changing the whole "three scoring line" approach just because it didn't work during one series against the best team in the league. Not re-signing Kent Huskins when frankly he would have been a better #6 than Colin White or Jim Vandermeer. Not re-signing Jamal Mayers even though he was good on the fourth line with McGinn and Desjardins at the very end. Not re-signing Kyle Wellwood because of one ineffective series.

Obviously, there are exceptions. But you watch a team like Detroit or even New Jersey, and you think, "man, how did they know right where their linemate was going to be?" and it's because they know each other so well and their playing styles mesh because we don't have some coach or GM trying to force Pavelski into the sniper role when he's clearly not a sniper.

The players on this team had strengths and weaknesses, but it certainly seems as though they are not being utilized properly. That's my issue. I don't want change for change's sake. I want them to try and reconfigure the lines to a way that actually makes sense. Obviously I think that Clowe and Murray are out, but I also would not be at all surprised to see at least one of them stay (Clowe, since he had a bad season and could go at next trade deadline, where he'd have more value).

Whether or not you accept that as an "excuse" isn't my problem. But the things I've pointed out clearly are.

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04-30-2012, 11:13 AM
  #369
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StalockSuperfan View Post
You say we need to stop the player turnover, but then propose almost as much turnover as last year?



I don't want more of the same! I'm sick of that status quo around here. It's the same players, the same system, the same failures, and the same excuses. The team as it sits is pretty good but not good enough, and certainly not getting any better. I'm just sick of it all. All the excuses, and the promises to get it right next year. Every year something goes wrong. 08-09 everyone gets injured and the team "lacks grit," 09-10 we can't score against Chicago, 10-11 Vancouver exposes our brutal defense, so we shore up the D and then against the Blues we can't score again. The core has had chance after chance after chance. And the worst thing? We have nothing to look forward to! Honest to God, we have no prospects and a farm team that no one seems to care about. I not even thinking about the cup anymore. I'm just dying to see something new.
When I looked at what won. One change in the top 5 and two changes in the top ten (deadline+offseason) were the limit for winning a cup in the subsequent season. The balance of winning goes to teams that limit their turnover relative to others over time. There are exceptions.

What is extraordinary is that the rate of change has accelerated despite a more pronounced presence of NMCs and NTCs. For the most part that means that teams are more rapidly turning over their lower line players. What is ironic in a general sense is that there is still only one cup and it is for one of thirty teams and that means the acceleration of movement literally has had no effect on winning. It is still a one in thirty chance. The conclusion is that some movement is movement for movement's sake and it is the work of front offices justifying their existence. They are doing "something", player churn. DW did "something" last offseason and for a couple of offseasons prior. It didn't work at all this time around. And I suspect part of that is that it is a cumulative effect of what has gone before.

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04-30-2012, 11:21 AM
  #370
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FORWARDS
Martin Havlat ($5.000m) / Joe Thornton ($7.000m) / Tommy Wingels ($0.710m)
Ryane Clowe ($3.625m) / Patrick Marleau ($6.900m) / Logan Couture ($2.875m)
Daniel Winnik ($1.950m) / Joe Pavelski ($4.000m) / T.J. Galiardi ($0.735m)
James Sheppard ($0.661m) / Andrew Desjardins ($0.694m) / Arron Asham ($0.775m)
Brad Winchester ($0.725m) / Benn Ferriero ($0.666m)
DEFENSEMEN
Jason Demers ($1.250m) / Dan Boyle ($6.667m)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m) / Brent Burns ($5.760m)
Brad Stuart ($3.000m) / Justin Braun ($1.248m)
Jim Vandermeer ($1.000m)
GOALTENDERS
Antti Niemi ($3.800m)
Thomas Greiss ($0.588m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,728,042; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,571,958


Predicated on SJ signing Winnik, Asham, Winchester, and Ferriero (the latter two of which are fungible) up front, Brad Stuart and a #7 on defense. San Jose gets rid of Handzus and Douglas Murray.

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04-30-2012, 11:23 AM
  #371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
When I looked at what won. One change in the top 5 and two changes in the top ten (deadline+offseason) were the limit for winning a cup in the subsequent season. The balance of winning goes to teams that limit their turnover relative to others over time. There are exceptions.

What is extraordinary is that the rate of change has accelerated despite a more pronounced presence of NMCs and NTCs. For the most part that means that teams are more rapidly turning over their lower line players. What is ironic in a general sense is that there is still only one cup and it is for one of thirty teams and that means the acceleration of movement literally has had no effect on winning. It is still a one in thirty chance. The conclusion is that some movement is movement for movement's sake and it is the work of front offices justifying their existence. They are doing "something", player churn. DW did "something" last offseason and for a couple of offseasons prior. It didn't work at all this time around. And I suspect part of that is that it is a cumulative effect of what has gone before.
I would argue that this past offseason, DW did more than just "something". The team's core was significantly changed.

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04-30-2012, 11:25 AM
  #372
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
When I looked at what won. One change in the top 5 and two changes in the top ten (deadline+offseason) were the limit for winning a cup in the subsequent season. The balance of winning goes to teams that limit their turnover relative to others over time. There are exceptions.

What is extraordinary is that the rate of change has accelerated despite a more pronounced presence of NMCs and NTCs. For the most part that means that teams are more rapidly turning over their lower line players. What is ironic in a general sense is that there is still only one cup and it is for one of thirty teams and that means the acceleration of movement literally has had no effect on winning. It is still a one in thirty chance. The conclusion is that some movement is movement for movement's sake and it is the work of front offices justifying their existence. They are doing "something", player churn. DW did "something" last offseason and for a couple of offseasons prior. It didn't work at all this time around. And I suspect part of that is that it is a cumulative effect of what has gone before.
agreed. though i would say havlats injury accelerated in season turnover in the bottom six as well. and i dont think the staff really figured out what they were looking for from their bottom six. moving pavelski to the first line was a big jump and probably happened because we lost a top 6 tweener in seto, which created a gaping hole in the third line, and at the beginning of the season our depth chart looked like (desjardins, ferriero, winchester, A. murray, handzus, mcarthy, mitchell) none of those players would be able to come close to pavelskis production. the team lacks balance, identity, and chemistry. it really felt like a transition season for this line up. even with all the flux we managed to scrape into the playoffs and out play a lot of teams...its not 100% doom and gloom, but 0 change will definitely not bring any reward. there is too many young players out there that we should be at least looking at if DW wants to remain a playoff team.

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04-30-2012, 11:41 AM
  #373
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Originally Posted by superroyain10 View Post
I would argue that this past offseason, DW did more than just "something". The team's core was significantly changed.
Agreed. Over the last 3 or 4 seasons, DW has accelerated turnover significantly. It hit a pinnacle last offseason. He has the Sharks in a class with Philly, TO, and NYR for rate of change. This past off-season, the Rags toned it down while Philly took it to new heights. I am waiting to see the upshot.

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04-30-2012, 12:34 PM
  #374
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agreed. though i would say havlats injury accelerated in season turnover in the bottom six as well. and i dont think the staff really figured out what they were looking for from their bottom six. moving pavelski to the first line was a big jump and probably happened because we lost a top 6 tweener in seto, which created a gaping hole in the third line, and at the beginning of the season our depth chart looked like (desjardins, ferriero, winchester, A. murray, handzus, mcarthy, mitchell) none of those players would be able to come close to pavelskis production. the team lacks balance, identity, and chemistry. it really felt like a transition season for this line up. even with all the flux we managed to scrape into the playoffs and out play a lot of teams...its not 100% doom and gloom, but 0 change will definitely not bring any reward. there is too many young players out there that we should be at least looking at if DW wants to remain a playoff team.
I think this is a pretty good insight on what happened.

For YEARS we have hoped that Stone Hands Mitchell was going to become the tweener we desperately needed, but he just hasn't been able to do that (should have kept McGinn ) That's why he is gone this offseason.

Winchester and Handzus were rolling the dice/experiments. DW thought maybe 1 of them could chip in 40 points.

Ferriero, Desjardins, Wingels...could develop. Jury is still out on if they turn into a nice tweener for us. They made strides this season, but not enough for what we needed.

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04-30-2012, 12:47 PM
  #375
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I don't know if this helps our "future" too much, but if we got Doan on a 2 year deal to play with Thornton, might be able to tweak us just enough make another run with our group. (though I don't think Doan will leave Phoenix) You can replace Sheppard with any AHL player too that steps up, Ferriero, Mashinter, Etc.

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR ROSTER
My Custom Lineup

FORWARDS
Logan Couture ($2.875m) / Joe Thornton ($7.000m) / Shane Doan ($3.700m)
Ryane Clowe ($3.625m) / Patrick Marleau ($6.900m) / Martin Havlat ($5.000m)
Daniel Winnik ($1.300m) / Joe Pavelski ($4.000m) / Tommy Wingels ($1.000m)
James Sheppard ($0.761m) / Michal Handzus ($2.500m) / Andrew Desjardins ($0.750m)

DEFENSEMEN
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($3.100m) / Brent Burns ($5.760m)
Justin Braun ($1.200m) / Dan Boyle ($6.667m)
Douglas Murray ($2.500m) / Jason Demers ($1.250m)

GOALTENDERS
Antti Niemi ($3.800m)
Thomas Greiss ($0.588m)
------
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(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,275,417; BONUSES: $0
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