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Hockey Prospectus top 125

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Old
05-01-2012, 07:46 AM
  #26
Fozz
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You have to appreciate all the work put in this but I'm just not a fan of the methodology used, although it does show a different approach. I guess it's just one more toll to consider with all the others.

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05-01-2012, 07:47 AM
  #27
CREW99AW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corey Pronman View Post
If anyone has any questions feel free to ask, I'll do my best to answer.

Detailed ranking explanations + reports for the top ten will go up this week, as well as for all other players with an asterisk next to their name within the next few weeks. Also the introduction covers a lot of my processes.
Some are questioning Dumba's hockey IQ.Are those concerns valid?
Do you expect him to develop into a 1st paring defenseman in the nhl?

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05-01-2012, 09:42 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corey Pronman View Post
When I originally looked him up it said April 11 1994

http://eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=117749

I was suspicious of that though, I will address it.
Yeah, at first I also looked at his profile on EliteProspects and thought he is April 1994. But then I couldn't find him in CSB top-150 European skaters and this lead me to checking his birthdate on the other sites.

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Old
05-01-2012, 10:00 AM
  #29
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Here's his list from last year for comparison:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...?articleid=955

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05-01-2012, 10:10 AM
  #30
Valic
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I'm surprised he even did another list after how bad his one last year was.


Do not like this list at all.

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05-01-2012, 10:16 AM
  #31
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Pronman is famous for leaning towards 'pure offensive players' in his rankings.

For example, he had concerns over Landeskogs upside last year, ranking him 13th. He has gone on record over the course of this year that he was wrong about Landeskog.

The same will probably be said in the longterm for his 2012 list.

Guys like Thrower, Sissons, Pouliot and Gordon, all from the WHL, are better offensively than he is giving them credit for with this ranking.

Either way I respect his list, even though I really don't agree with much of it.

With that being said his top 5 is pretty close to what I would have, minus the presence of a guy like Murray.

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05-01-2012, 10:19 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MiGician View Post
That beer league is Finnish Elite League which is the 3rd/4th best league in the world.
Who was the last skilled player to be developed in the Finnish Elite League and achieve scoring success in the NHL? Ville Leino? Valtteri Filppula? It's obviously not fair to call the Finnish Elite League a beer league, but it is fair to be skeptical about the league's ability to produce skilled players right now.

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Old
05-01-2012, 10:42 AM
  #33
Corey Pronman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
Some are questioning Dumba's hockey IQ.Are those concerns valid?
Do you expect him to develop into a 1st paring defenseman in the nhl?
I think he at times tries to over do it with some individual plays or big hits, but generally speaking I like his vision, creativity and defensive awareness. I don't see his hockey IQ being along the lines of Rielly or Murray, but I wouldn't rank a guy 6th unless I thought he had above average hockey sense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by romao View Post
Yeah, at first I also looked at his profile on EliteProspects and thought he is April 1994. But then I couldn't find him in CSB top-150 European skaters and this lead me to checking his birthdate on the other sites.
Thanks for the tip, I took Yakimov out, moved everyone else up one, Di Pauli in at 125.

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Old
05-01-2012, 10:48 AM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hossa View Post
Who was the last skilled player to be developed in the Finnish Elite League and achieve scoring success in the NHL? Ville Leino? Valtteri Filppula? It's obviously not fair to call the Finnish Elite League a beer league, but it is fair to be skeptical about the league's ability to produce skilled players right now.
Teemu Selanne?
Saku Koivu?
Olli Jokinen?
Mikko Koivu?
Kimmo Timonen?

It's pretty easy to make a bad argument when you, you know, ignore those pesky facts.

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05-01-2012, 10:58 AM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Teemu Selanne?
Saku Koivu?
Olli Jokinen?
Mikko Koivu?
Kimmo Timonen?

It's pretty easy to make a bad argument when you, you know, ignore those pesky facts.
I think he was asking about the "last one". That was basically Mikko, who was drafted over 10 years ago.

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05-01-2012, 11:00 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnus svensson View Post
Well your opinion is obviously gonna be biased because youre finish but its clear that the north american junior leagues have a better skill level than the european "elite" leagues
No its not clear

In fact, it's incredibly obvious to anyone who watches, or even reads about, these leagues that the opposite is true.

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05-01-2012, 11:28 AM
  #37
CREW99AW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corey Pronman View Post
I think he at times tries to over do it with some individual plays or big hits, but generally speaking I like his vision, creativity and defensive awareness. I don't see his hockey IQ being along the lines of Rielly or Murray, but I wouldn't rank a guy 6th unless I thought he had above average hockey sense.

.
Thanks for the info

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Old
05-01-2012, 11:33 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr.Sens(e) View Post
I think he was asking about the "last one". That was basically Mikko, who was drafted over 10 years ago.
Even then it's a bad argument. There haven't been FEL players finding scoring success, but between 2005-2009 there were no (skating) Finns selected in the first round of the draft. They had a dry patch for that type of youth, but that simply means they had a dry patch where no high end youth came through. Teravainen can't be compared to the Finns selected in 2005-2009 because there were none like him. The players he can be compared to were drafted 10 years ago, or are too young to judge. Within 2 years we could easily be adding Granlund or Armia to that list.

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Old
05-01-2012, 12:24 PM
  #39
Brian Fogarty
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valic View Post
I'm surprised he even did another list after how bad his one last year was.


Do not like this list at all.
Last summer, I took an admittedly not completely thorough look at all of the significant draft rankings, and ran an optimization routine that would find the best weights for the various lists to try to predict the actual draft outcomes. Pronman's list ultimately received more weight than all others except for the TSN list. ISS was a close third.

Many people may have disagreements with Pronman's approach, especially regarding netminders, but as far as I know he's the only one who is trying to incorporate some form of advanced stats thought process into the creation of his list. For that alone (and projected GVTs which I hope we'll get again this year), I think his list should be at least carefully considered.


Last edited by Brian Fogarty: 05-01-2012 at 12:37 PM.
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Old
05-01-2012, 12:32 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Even then it's a bad argument. There haven't been FEL players finding scoring success, but between 2005-2009 there were no (skating) Finns selected in the first round of the draft. They had a dry patch for that type of youth, but that simply means they had a dry patch where no high end youth came through. Teravainen can't be compared to the Finns selected in 2005-2009 because there were none like him. The players he can be compared to were drafted 10 years ago, or are too young to judge. Within 2 years we could easily be adding Granlund or Armia to that list.
I'm not saying it's a definitive argument, by any stretch. The fact there hasn't been a compelling offensive player out of Finland to make an impact in the NHL over the last 10 years isn't Teravainen's fault, of course.

But the point is still worth considering in the grand scheme of things when looking at the production of Teravainen and the lack of offensive talent being produced by Finland over the last decade. It used to be that Finland produced a dynamic offensive player every couple of years at least. Now? It's been 10 years, which is a long time. Perhaps that's just a crazy abnormality. Or perhaps there is something up with Finnish hockey. I have no idea, but 10 years is a long time. Plus, the young Finnish prospects tend to get a lot of talk on these boards by passionate Finnish fans (good on them, many are great contributors), but sometimes it isn't quite backed up (See Toni Rajala). The other factor is his production in his draft year is not on par with that of Granlund nor Armia, and neither of those guys are sure things (even though i think they are both great young players, Granlund in particular).

Personally, I like him a lot, in particular given his late birth date. And doubly so given his performance at the U18's, demonstrating he is amongst the best of his peers. I don't think he'll last past #15 in almost any scenario, and will likely be gone by #10 if I had to guess. But I understand the point. I just chose to consider it, and then disregard it as likely non-applicanle to Teravainen.

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Old
05-01-2012, 01:10 PM
  #41
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Fun tweets from Corey

His clone would suffice. RT @Jirou529: @coreypronman in your opinion is there a player in this draft that compliments pietrangelo?

Absolutely RT @KennilG: @coreypronman You think Kerdiles has top 6 potential?

Tough one. Wilson. RT @BeerLeagueHeroe: @coreypronman Tyler biggs or tom wilson?

No. RT @J_Habs: @coreypronman mentioned some scouts believe Forsberg can be as good as Gally-Grigs, etc... Do you yourself believe this?

Behind Yaku/Grigo in front of Galch. RT @Fckendrick: ...@coreypronman where would kuznetsov rank if coming.out w/these top 3 russians

The better player. Good thing I just ranked them. RT @brandondubreuil: @coreypronman Galchenyuk or Grigorenko a better fit for the Habs?
LOL

That's it, new sport. I'll try baseball. RT @NHL: .@justinbieber reps his team on Instagram, do you? http://*******/IFrSxw

McDonagh RT @tommy_koehler10: @coreypronman Leddy or McDonagh?

Excellent RT @kausatoday: Kyle Palmieri joins Team USA for World championships

Hall RT @crackafer: @coreypronman yakupov, RNH, or Hall?

Couturier but could flip a coin. RT @8kpower: @coreypronman Sean Couturier or Brayden schenn

Nino RT @rpm810: @coreypronman Brock Nelson or Nino? (just cause I keep hearing about how Nelson is TWICE the prospect Nino is)

No RT @zanny0814: @coreypronman do you see niederreiter as a first line winger?

Abv avg 2nd line talent. RT @ODurkin: @coreypronman Corey, we Leaf fans are confused about Nazem Kadri. What are we really looking at here?

Seguin RT @BShaw27: @coreypronman Kessel or Seguin?

Hall RT @AdamRiz: @coreypronman hall or Nugent-Hopkins?

Very close call for me. Fowler IMO has more high-end skills, was tiebreaker. RT @bert_almighty: @coreypronman why Fowler over Larsson?

Another good/tough question. Fowler. RT @Prevost09: @coreypronman Fowler or Adam Larsson?


Yes RT @woodgrov: @coreypronman If you are redrafting 2009, do you take OEL over Hedman?

Galchenyuk RT @Prevost09: @coreypronman Galchenyuk or Huberdeau?

Forsberg RT @seamus_otoole: @coreypronman Just because Zibanejad seems to be the topic of discussion, him or Filip Forsberg?

Turris RT @rlevitan1: @coreypronman Turris or Zibanejad? For longterm upside

I could lie and say yes. RT @DucksFanZone: @coreypronman Are Smid and Petry elite first pair defensemen in your eyes?

Forsberg, easy call. RT @bcphockeyblog: @coreypronman If you had to choose between Murray or Forsberg disregarding need, who would you take?


Last edited by HanSolo: 05-01-2012 at 01:38 PM.
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Old
05-01-2012, 01:17 PM
  #42
KEEROLE Vatanen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Fogarty View Post
Last summer, I took an admittedly not completely thorough look at all of the significant draft rankings, and ran an optimization routine that would find the best weights for the various lists to try to predict the actual draft outcomes. Pronman's list ultimately received more weight than all others except for the TSN list. ISS was a close third.

Many people may have disagreements with Pronman's approach, especially regarding netminders, but as far as I know he's the only one who is trying to incorporate some form of advanced stats thought process into the creation of his list. For that alone (and projected GVTs which I hope we'll get again this year), I think his list should be at least carefully considered.
People here on HF don't like different. I applaud a different approach, people here mistake hype, or non hype for being good or bad way to often

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05-01-2012, 01:37 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by OccupySheen View Post
People here on HF don't like different. I applaud a different approach, people here mistake hype, or non hype for being good or bad way to often
In fairness Corey's list was pretty way off last year.

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Old
05-01-2012, 01:57 PM
  #44
Hossa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Even then it's a bad argument. There haven't been FEL players finding scoring success, but between 2005-2009 there were no (skating) Finns selected in the first round of the draft. They had a dry patch for that type of youth, but that simply means they had a dry patch where no high end youth came through. Teravainen can't be compared to the Finns selected in 2005-2009 because there were none like him. The players he can be compared to were drafted 10 years ago, or are too young to judge. Within 2 years we could easily be adding Granlund or Armia to that list.
The good doctor already answered this nicely, but I'll add two things.

1) I wasn't trying to make an argument against Teravainen specifically - I have not been able to assess him as a prospect, so I don't really care. All I was saying is that the FEL hasn't exactly been pumping out good prospects of late. There is always skepticism of players emerging from leagues that have not been producing talent lately, whether it's a European pro league or a junior A league in Canada or high school hockey in the US. There's some truth to that for Finland right now as well. Doesn't mean Teravainen (or Granlund and Armia) won't buck the recent trend, but it's been a while.

2) Saying that Finnish hockey has been in a dry-spell for talent over the last several years isn't exactly a great way to endorse the league's quality. You kind of give away the game there. The point isn't that Finnish players selected in the first round have busted recently, it's that skill development has been poor overall for a little while now (and those that are currently getting attention tend to be smaller, save Armia, for some reason), which is what you said. I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder what impact that had on the quality of the league.

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Old
05-01-2012, 01:59 PM
  #45
Nullus Reverentia
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I don't mind this list, last years I didn't like at all but I can't find anything really wrong with this one, it's like a Button list and I like that Button does thing's diffrently.

Still don't like how it's put together but the end result isn't too bad.

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Old
05-01-2012, 02:05 PM
  #46
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This is by far the Highest I have seen Slepyshev. Im actually suprised there is not more hype around him....If he ever makes it to NA, Watch out...

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05-01-2012, 02:08 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corey Pronman View Post
If anyone has any questions feel free to ask, I'll do my best to answer.

Detailed ranking explanations + reports for the top ten will go up this week, as well as for all other players with an asterisk next to their name within the next few weeks. Also the introduction covers a lot of my processes.
I look forward to that! Your writeups last year and in 2010 were great, and though your ratings are somewhat idiosyncratic they are also backed by solid reasoning and logical consistency. Agreeing with them or not, they make a reasonable case and develops one's knowledge and stimulates own thought processes.

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Old
05-01-2012, 02:12 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnus svensson View Post
Well your opinion is obviously gonna be biased because youre finish but its clear that the north american junior leagues have a better skill level than the european "elite" leagues
Are you joking or trolling?

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Old
05-01-2012, 02:14 PM
  #49
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Corey, why no Devin Shore?
Have you not seen him or do you just not like him?

I think he's easily among the top 125 players in this draft.

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Old
05-01-2012, 02:24 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hossa View Post
The good doctor already answered this nicely, but I'll add two things.

1) I wasn't trying to make an argument against Teravainen specifically - I have not been able to assess him as a prospect, so I don't really care. All I was saying is that the FEL hasn't exactly been pumping out good prospects of late. There is always skepticism of players emerging from leagues that have not been producing talent lately, whether it's a European pro league or a junior A league in Canada or high school hockey in the US. There's some truth to that for Finland right now as well. Doesn't mean Teravainen (or Granlund and Armia) won't buck the recent trend, but it's been a while.

2) Saying that Finnish hockey has been in a dry-spell for talent over the last several years isn't exactly a great way to endorse the league's quality. You kind of give away the game there. The point isn't that Finnish players selected in the first round have busted recently, it's that skill development has been poor overall for a little while now (and those that are currently getting attention tend to be smaller, save Armia, for some reason), which is what you said. I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder what impact that had on the quality of the league.
I think this simplymake far too much out of ehat amounts to a brief period of absent top talent. That period was preceded by a number of years with a very high number of high finnish selections in the early 2000s, and we now have three straight years with high finnish selections again. In the mean time, they've also continued oing well in international play. No real case in my opinion for that dry spell being anything very significant.

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