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Old
05-02-2012, 01:13 PM
  #76
KEEROLE Vatanen
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^that's one example, he nailed Cam Fowler when all the experts here were saying he would be terrible

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Old
05-02-2012, 01:52 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Landeskog is crushing all possession metrics as a rookie. He'd have to regress quite a bit for it ever being a "a mistake of significant magnitude" to pick him with a lottery pick. Even if he never became more than what he currently is, it would be a fine pick.

As for Pronman, having to revise a position he had with "close to absolute certainty" only a few months later, it speaks volumes about his eye for hockey players and his assumptions about what kind of hockey players will be effective in the NHL.
I don't think you can make such a harsh statement basing your argument on one example. All scouts can do is estimate a players ceiling and the probability in which the player will reach that ceiling. There are no sure cases. If a scout says "I don't think X will make it", but X does make it, you can't assume that the scout has no eye for the game. IMO a scout's worth can be measured only in the long run.

It's obvious that right now it's looking like Landeskog was a very good pick even at 2nd overall. But we can also agree that I don't think anybody expected a 50 point rookie season from him.

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Old
05-02-2012, 02:55 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Landeskog is crushing all possession metrics as a rookie. He'd have to regress quite a bit for it ever being a "a mistake of significant magnitude" to pick him with a lottery pick. Even if he never became more than what he currently is, it would be a fine pick.

As for Pronman, having to revise a position he had with "close to absolute certainty" only a few months later, it speaks volumes about his eye for hockey players and his assumptions about what kind of hockey players will be effective in the NHL.
I think there is fair criticism there, in particular having him at 13 and speaking with such certainty (which is rare), versus just stating he wouldn't touch him in the top 5.

But the reality is you can take any scouts previous analysis and make him look like an idiot by quoting one or two of his previous scouting reports. At least the ones that pose strong opinions, which are basically the only ones worth reading.

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Old
05-02-2012, 03:03 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by YARR123 View Post
There are no sure cases. If a scout says "I don't think X will make it", but X does make it, you can't assume that the scout has no eye for the game. IMO a scout's worth can be measured only in the long run.
While i do agree with you to an extent, the way the author went out of his way to point out why Landeskog was a bad pick and not a top prospect makes me question how he evaluates some players.
Colorado was very confident in him and so was many others including me.

All i am saying is that when looking for predictions on prospect i don't know very well myself i would rather look elsewhere then HPs lists.
Just like a player need to perform to earn ice time a scout has to earn my internet time .

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Old
05-02-2012, 03:11 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sens(e) View Post
I think there is fair criticism there, in particular having him at 13 and speaking with such certainty (which is rare), versus just stating he wouldn't touch him in the top 5.

But the reality is you can take any scouts previous analysis and make him look like an idiot by quoting one or two of his previous scouting reports. At least the ones that pose strong opinions, which are basically the only ones worth reading.
It's the basic assumptions of HP that are flawed. Them getting Landeskog wrong is a consequence of that.

They will underestimate the impact of goaltenders (hardly featured in the rankings), defensive defensemen and players such as Landeskog (skaters with high compete level, physicality but not with puck skills that pop out). With their assumptions Callahan, Brown and Richards shouldn't be impact players and anyone paying attention to these playoffs realize that nothing could be more wrong.

Meanwhile, players who have great puck skills but are lacking in a lot of other areas will get overrated by HP. Hence them really liking Kabanov, Filatov and so on. Not to mention all of Detroits smaller skill forwards.

There will be more Landeskog-type predictions from HP as long as they have a narrow view what player types will have an impact in the NHL.

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Old
05-02-2012, 03:13 PM
  #81
Corey Pronman
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
Hey Corey, are you ranking players as to were you think they will go in the draft or is it a BPA list
My own rankings. I see you're an Oil Kings guy so for the record I completely expect a player like Griffin Reinhart to go top ten.

On Landeskog, as I've said a few times before, ya I missed a lot on that one. As one poster pointed out, I didn't exactly no prospect him (had him 13th), but the language in which I used certainly does not look good 12 months later. If you want to hold that singular ranking against me to paint a picture of my evaluation abilities that's your prerogative, I just hope you hold everyone else to such a standard.

I lay out my methods, what I emphasize, and over the next few weeks will explain all my top 20 rankings in detail and provide detailed write ups of the top 100 players. If anyone wants to debate any of those aspects with me feel free to do so, I enjoy engaging my audience.

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Old
05-02-2012, 04:03 PM
  #82
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Corey- in your intro to your rankings you wrote-
"While the reports are based somewhat on my personal viewings of most of the prospects profiled of whom I have seen most play at least once, predominantly though video scouting, a significant portion of my notes come from talking to scouts and NHL execs and accumulating a lot of information from different sources throughout the year."

In your explanations will you break down how many times you watched a prospect play(live or via video) and what point in the season your viewing(s) was/were?

Will you also elaborate on from what periods of the year are your scouting sources seeing particular prospects?

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Old
05-02-2012, 05:24 PM
  #83
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Just a question, were any Minnesotans even considered for this list, I see a decent amount of US-high schoolers but I have yet to find any kind of scouting list that ranks somewhat accurately the MN bunch for this year?

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Old
05-02-2012, 05:59 PM
  #84
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5. Teuvo Teravainen, Left Wing, Jokerit-SM-Liiga*
8. Ryan Murray, Defense, Everett-WHL*
15. Griffin Reinhart, Defense, Edmonton-WHL*
17. Anton Slepyshev, Left Wing, Novokuznetsk-KHL*
18. Tomas Hertl, Center, HC Slavia Praha-Czech Extraliga*
25. Brendan Gaunce, Center, Belleville-OHL
26. Tim Bozon, Left Wing, Kamloops-WHL
43. Nathan Walker, Left Wing, Vitkovice-Czech Extraliga
58. Dalton Thrower, Defense, Saskatoon-WHL
78. Colton Sissons, Right Wing, Kelowna-WHL*
79. Malcolm Subban, Goaltender, Belleville-OHL*
90. Joey Laleggia, Defense, University of Denver-WCHA
109. Quentin Shore, Center, USA Under-18 National Team-USHL
123. Henri Ikonen, Left Wing, Kalpa- Jr.A SM-Liiga
These are the rankings that caught my eye either positively or negatively.

5. He's ranked ahead of Dumba and Murray which surprises me... Any reasons?
8. At #8 is kinda weird... If these are rankings I'm sure there's a logical explanation. If it's a "pseudo-mock" no way that Murray makes it past Anaheim. Kinda weird that he's behind Dumba and Rielly
15. Crazy how low he is...
17. I don't think his WJ18 performance merits this rank. And I think he's this year's Kucherov.
18. Highest I've seen him ranked. I don't know him too well as a player. Just ineteresting
25. This is the absolute lowest I've seen him (by a long shot), I'm wondering why...
26. Good to see recognition for this kid.
43. There's actually a decent chance he doesn't get drafted...
58. Lowest I've seen him, outplayed last year's #11 overall pick Siemens this year as a 17 year old.
78. Lowest I've seen him, thought he did well this year.
79. No way he slips this far
90. I love Joey. Friend of mine. He could be drafted but I think it'll be in the last half of the draft.
109. Not a great player... Was unimpressed when I saw him play. I wouldn't be surprised if he was passed.
123. He will probably be the 2nd Finnish forward taken in the draft.

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Old
05-02-2012, 06:15 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Hossa View Post
Who was the last skilled player to be developed in the Finnish Elite League and achieve scoring success in the NHL? Ville Leino? Valtteri Filppula? It's obviously not fair to call the Finnish Elite League a beer league, but it is fair to be skeptical about the league's ability to produce skilled players right now.
Good point. It's a good league but SEL etc is obviously much better talent wise. Whoever thought FEL is the top3-4 league in the world should clearly get a reality check.

Btw I'm also missing Oscar Dansk on the 125 list. Not that he should be a first rounder or something, but he should definitely qualify on a list like this one.

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Old
05-02-2012, 06:51 PM
  #86
Corey Pronman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerface1 View Post
Corey- in your intro to your rankings you wrote-
"While the reports are based somewhat on my personal viewings of most of the prospects profiled of whom I have seen most play at least once, predominantly though video scouting, a significant portion of my notes come from talking to scouts and NHL execs and accumulating a lot of information from different sources throughout the year."

In your explanations will you break down how many times you watched a prospect play(live or via video) and what point in the season your viewing(s) was/were?

Will you also elaborate on from what periods of the year are your scouting sources seeing particular prospects?
I don't mind answering those questions on a case by case. I'm working on my Top 10s for the summer currently, so would really prefer not to delve back into more note checking and having my editor work them in. Maybe next year. Good idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovechkid08 View Post
Just a question, were any Minnesotans even considered for this list, I see a decent amount of US-high schoolers but I have yet to find any kind of scouting list that ranks somewhat accurately the MN bunch for this year?
Minnesota guys I just didn't get much notes on at all. Primarily because there weren't any scouts I were talking to telling me this was a class worth knowing. Like I said earlier in this thread I know a guy like Stepan is a top 125 prospect, but I had no notes on him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Granlund2Pulkkinen View Post
These are the rankings that caught my eye either positively or negatively.

5. He's ranked ahead of Dumba and Murray which surprises me... Any reasons?
8. At #8 is kinda weird... If these are rankings I'm sure there's a logical explanation. If it's a "pseudo-mock" no way that Murray makes it past Anaheim. Kinda weird that he's behind Dumba and Rielly
15. Crazy how low he is...
17. I don't think his WJ18 performance merits this rank. And I think he's this year's Kucherov.
18. Highest I've seen him ranked. I don't know him too well as a player. Just ineteresting
25. This is the absolute lowest I've seen him (by a long shot), I'm wondering why...
26. Good to see recognition for this kid.
43. There's actually a decent chance he doesn't get drafted...
58. Lowest I've seen him, outplayed last year's #11 overall pick Siemens this year as a 17 year old.
78. Lowest I've seen him, thought he did well this year.
79. No way he slips this far
90. I love Joey. Friend of mine. He could be drafted but I think it'll be in the last half of the draft.
109. Not a great player... Was unimpressed when I saw him play. I wouldn't be surprised if he was passed.
123. He will probably be the 2nd Finnish forward taken in the draft.
5. Check hockeyprospectus.com right now. There's an explanation in the 1-5 column.
8. Not a mock in the least. I felt the three dmen were pretty interchangeable. An explanation will be posted at HP either tomorrow or Friday.
17. You're right his U18s didnt merit this rank he was simply ok there. I have notes on him from the last two years though and I really like him.
25. Dont buy the talent level being mid-top first round caliber. He's skilled, don't get me wrong and can really make plays, has an impressive shot etc. Skating worries me, and I don't see enough high end tools to get into the 12-18 range.
43. Not really concerned if he gets picked or not, although based on scouts I've talked to, I think he gets a look.
79. Read my intro and you'll see why. Again not a mock, and I systematically rank goalie low, hence no Dansk for example.
90. I know I'm way out there on him, but really like the offensive tools.
109. I didn't like him either, but he really came on as the season continued in my opinion.

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Old
05-02-2012, 06:55 PM
  #87
Sevanston
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Originally Posted by Pellegrino View Post
Good point. It's a good league but SEL etc is obviously much better talent wise. Whoever thought FEL is the top3-4 league in the world should clearly get a reality check.

Btw I'm also missing Oscar Dansk on the 125 list. Not that he should be a first rounder or something, but he should definitely qualify on a list like this one.
I don't see it being too far off from there.

1. NHL
2. KHL
3. SEL

4. AHL/FEL
5. FEL/AHL

If it really required a reality check, I would suspect the FEL to come in around the 10th best, not 4th/5th. I wouldn't put it in the top 3 though.

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Old
05-02-2012, 06:57 PM
  #88
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Carrick at 96?

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Old
05-02-2012, 07:00 PM
  #89
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I always enjoy Corey's rankings.

They're very different from the usual rankings, but he's always willing to give thorough explanations of his reasoning. (Unlike some other rankings which just shoot off a list and leave it at that)

Which makes his list refreshingly informative, even when I don't agree.

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Old
05-02-2012, 07:05 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Corey Pronman View Post
There's an explanation in the 1-5 column.
Only thing i have to disagree with you is that FF's weakness is creativity, basically when he gets that puck in offensive zone only thing he sees is a goalie.

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Old
05-02-2012, 09:11 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
They will underestimate the impact of goaltenders (hardly featured in the rankings),
I don't think he is underestimating the impact of goalies. He is questioning the ability to determine which goalie is going to be the best. Big difference.

Want a striking contrast?

Of the top 5 NHL scorers this season, 4 of them were picked either 1st or 2nd overall, with Giroux the only outlier (also a 1st rounder). A few more top 2 guys are in the top 10 and James Neal (33rd overall) is the only guy in the top 10 not a 1st round pick (just barely). And this NHL top 10 scoring list doesn't even include a number of other truly elite forwards like Crosby, Toews, Kane, Backstrom, Kovalchuk, Ovechkin etc.

If you want an elite offensive franchise guy, you typically need to nail it in the 1st round, with a few exceptions here and there, of course. And if you have a top 5 pick, all the better. Top 2, excellent. Take a forward.

Meanwhile, amongst the top 10 NHL goalies this season, there is only ONE 1st rounder (fleury - 1st overall), and 7 of the top 10 goalies were picked in the 5th round or later (or undrafted). NHL scouts have clearly demonstrated that picking goalies is not as easy as picking forwards early.

Even on D - a point he makes as well - it is easier to find a franchise guy in the later rounds. Guys like Shea Weber, Zdeno Chara, Dustin Byfuglien and Duncan Keith are all consensus top 10 d-men in the league according to most lists, and none of those guys were a 1st rounder, let alone a top 10 pick. Meanwhile, #1 pick overalls like Erik Johnson and Jay Bouwmeister are valuable, but not amongst the elite at their position.

So the idea is simple - if it's so easy to blow a 1st round or top 10 pick on a d-man or a 1st rounder on a goalie, then don't, unless you're bloody well sure the guy you are taking is way better than your top ranked forward on the board. While I don't think you can focus on this rule as being absolute, the idea does have some merit when you look at it objectively in terms of where the best at each position are drafted.

The bottom line is it's a lot easier to see the skills that will make a 17 year okld forward successful at the next level, versus what makes a d-man or goalie great.

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Old
05-03-2012, 01:12 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
I don't see it being too far off from there.

1. NHL
2. KHL
3. SEL

4. AHL/FEL
5. FEL/AHL

If it really required a reality check, I would suspect the FEL to come in around the 10th best, not 4th/5th. I wouldn't put it in the top 3 though.
Agreed.

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Old
05-03-2012, 02:16 AM
  #93
KEEROLE Vatanen
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Why is Corey being singled out for Landekog? ALOT of people questioned his offensive upside

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Old
05-03-2012, 02:42 AM
  #94
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I questioned Landeskogs offensive potential as well not as severely as Pronman but the reality is every NHL is severely wrong on a couple players once in a while. I'm not going to hold that against Pronman it happens

I do feel he underrates tough hard nosed players that just get the job done. But every person has different opinions and personally I feel his is pretty well thought out even if I don't agree with it all times

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Old
05-03-2012, 02:52 AM
  #95
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It's obviously not fair to call the Finnish Elite League a beer league, but it is fair to be skeptical about the league's ability to produce skilled players right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pellegrino View Post
Good point. It's a good league but SEL etc is obviously much better talent wise. Whoever thought FEL is the top3-4 league in the world should clearly get a reality check.

Btw I'm also missing Oscar Dansk on the 125 list. Not that he should be a first rounder or something, but he should definitely qualify on a list like this one.
Well, I do not think it is a good - or even remotely valid - point that it is fair to question the ability of the FEL to produce top talent right now. The FEL has delivered top talent to the NHL for 30 years, consistently. Just because there's been a few years without any really elite Finnish prospects, that is no reason to put that into question, especially given that we are now once more seeing prime finnish talent emerging at the top end of the first round.

One might also note a complete absence of top finnish skater prospects developing well through other development channels open to them.


Quote:
If it really required a reality check, I would suspect the FEL to come in around the 10th best, not 4th/5th. I wouldn't put it in the top 3 though.
Sorry, but where do you find nine leagues better than the FEL? NHL, SEL, AHL, KHL, ok - but who exactly are the other five? German, Swiss, and, er......ECHL? CHL? the Czech Extraleague? Come on, that's not right. The FEL has a higher level of play than any of those.

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05-03-2012, 03:06 AM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Sevanston View Post
I always enjoy Corey's rankings.

They're very different from the usual rankings, but he's always willing to give thorough explanations of his reasoning. (Unlike some other rankings which just shoot off a list and leave it at that)

Which makes his list refreshingly informative, even when I don't agree.
This.

Three points to the critics:

1, the Landeskog point is just way overblown. Anobody who ranks prospects on a non-consensual basis will have deviations like that. If missing on a single player was cause for not being taken seriously, there would be nobody left for the NHL to employ in a scouting capacity with any experience. And it's not as if he predicted Landeskog to be a bust.

2, The thinking among some of you seems to be that if you don't agree with Pronman's logic, his rankings and writeups automatically become useless. This is simply fuzzy thinking. The point is that as long as his criteria and basic philosophy is clear, they give you valuable input whether you agree with him or not. Simply take it into account when you're reading, it's no more complicated than having two thoughts in your head at the same time.

3, It is perfectly legitimate to apply a certain hockey philosophy to rating prospects. Teams do that all the time. Some, like Brian Burke, believe that ultimately size wins hockey games. And if you do, then it is perfectly rational to introduce a systematic bias for big players when drafting. The idea with this is not that this results in rankings that prove the most accurate in every single case - inevitably, you will inherently tend to underrate the prospects who do not possess whatever trait it is that you value. But in the long run, and if your philosophy is right, you end up with better choices.

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05-03-2012, 07:53 AM
  #97
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Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Landeskog is crushing all possession metrics as a rookie. He'd have to regress quite a bit for it ever being a "a mistake of significant magnitude" to pick him with a lottery pick. Even if he never became more than what he currently is, it would be a fine pick.

As for Pronman, having to revise a position he had with "close to absolute certainty" only a few months later, it speaks volumes about his eye for hockey players and his assumptions about what kind of hockey players will be effective in the NHL.
No, I think it speaks more to the fact that he is not an infallible being.

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Old
05-03-2012, 09:27 AM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Landeskog is crushing all possession metrics as a rookie. He'd have to regress quite a bit for it ever being a "a mistake of significant magnitude" to pick him with a lottery pick. Even if he never became more than what he currently is, it would be a fine pick.

As for Pronman, having to revise a position he had with "close to absolute certainty" only a few months later, it speaks volumes about his eye for hockey players and his assumptions about what kind of hockey players will be effective in the NHL.
Or it shows that every once and a while, people make mistakes. Or people exceed expectations. If that wasn't true, then no late round picks would make it.

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Old
05-03-2012, 10:02 AM
  #99
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Sorry, but where do you find nine leagues better than the FEL? NHL, SEL, AHL, KHL, ok - but who exactly are the other five? German, Swiss, and, er......ECHL? CHL? the Czech Extraleague? Come on, that's not right. The FEL has a higher level of play than any of those.
I think you misunderstood. He wasn't putting FEL down, quite the contrary.

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Old
05-03-2012, 11:14 AM
  #100
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^that's one example, he nailed Cam Fowler when all the experts here were saying he would be terrible
Sorry, but that's ridiculous. Nobody here thought Fowler would be terrible - many were calling him the best defenseman in the draft all along. Just about everyone was shocked that he slipped as far as he did, which is something you'd have to take up with NHL GMs and scouts.

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