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Your opinion where are the Islanders in 2016?

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05-01-2012, 10:38 AM
  #1
lorwood
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Your opinion where are the Islanders in 2016?

I want to make this thread different from the others on the topic. Please just state what you think the outcome of the Islanders arena/ownership/location issue will be come 2016. Feel free to give a short post as to the logic behind your analysis of the situation but lets not respond or argue about other opinions. Lets just use this thread to see what others think and why.

I will start.

Sometime in 2015 I think the county and the Islanders will agree on a extension of the current lease for somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 years. I do not think this extension will include any significant renovations to the NVMC or a new arena. Wang will continue to run the team as he currently does. Wang and the county along with the town of Hempstead will continue to "negotiate" the hub development.

Here is the why.

Wang is enamored with the idea of playing developer. He believes that this is the best way to leave a legacy for himself. This is his Stanley Cup.

Wang is currently making a profit on the NY Islanders. The TV deal, the reworked lease and running the team on the cheap, while not bringing in tons of income, does make the Islanders profitable enough for Wang while his development deal pans out.

The county is currently in no financial position to spend dime one on the NVMC or on any part of developing the HUB. Both Wang and Mangano recognize this and decide to wait for better economic times. They also decide to wait and hope for a TOH board that may be more willing to work with them.

So to sum it up the way I see it is basically the status quo, both on and off the ice until at least 2020.

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05-01-2012, 11:00 AM
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According to Forbes,Wang's losing about $4m per under the current lease.Now keep in mind that's with core youngsters in the team friendly part of their contracts.

In 3 yrs,players like Tavares/Okposo/Hamonic will be making much more.

No way do I see Wang signing on for 5 more yrs of this nonsense.Imo he will ask the County what their final offer is,what day they plan on breaking ground on a new arena or starting a major renovation.

If the County pols don't have the $ for either a new arena or a major renovation, we'll see him turn to the Barclay's Center execs and ask what lease terms they are offering.If Barclay's execs don't come up with an offer Wang likes,he'll put the team up for sale.

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05-01-2012, 11:41 AM
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This won't go a day past the 2015 deadline. No extensions. None of that crap. Wang won't go for it and Bettman won't allow it.

After seeing the seating chart for Barclay's, Brooklyn is out. Nassau is obviously out. The only chance this team has is Queens and a shovel needs to be in the ground yesterday.

Pessimistic? You bet your ass I am. The writing is on the wall. Nothing is getting done here. Quebec has a new arena ready to go in 2015 and it looks like Seattle will as well.

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05-01-2012, 11:49 AM
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I think the Isles are likely heading to either Brooklyn or Queens in 2016. Brooklyn is where he can get significant piece of Atlantic Yards development (if Ratner wins his court battle against his opponents on environmental study of phase II). However, Wang would have to pay close to a billion dollars to make it worth his time, although that would be less risky than getting involved in Willets Point since AY doesn't have remediation problems.
Queens may have less risk (assuming Wang doesn't get involved in WP) because Wang can pick up 50% of the tab on a Queens arena and have the other 50% sold in exchange for his arena partner (likely Sterling Equities) picking up the other half of the arena tab. This may be unconventional but someone picking up the tab for an Isles new arena IS a significant step. Then Wang can sell the other half of the franchise awhile later (likely around 2025 or 2030) when the Isles franchise value may significantly rise.

Wilpons have used a similar tactic before

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Wilpon

Wilpon bought a one-percent stake in the Mets in 1980, when Charles Shipman Payson sold the team, with Doubleday & Co. holding the remaining interest. In 1986, Doubleday president Nelson Doubleday, Jr. sold off his company, and he and Wilpon each bought a 50 percent stake in the Mets to become full partners. In 2002, the Wilpon Family purchased the remaining 50% of the Mets from Doubleday for $135 million.

Wilpon served as president of the team between 1980 to 2002, as Chief Executive Officer since 1980 and as Chairman of the Board since 2003. Wilpon currently serves as Chairman of Sterling Equities. His son, Jeff, is the COO of the Mets and executive vice president of Sterling.

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05-01-2012, 11:51 AM
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Bunk Moreland
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My opinion and what I'm hoping for is this:

Nassau is a dead end and Queens is developing slowly. The Islanders will sign a short term lease at the Barclay's Center and will eventually end up with a permanent home in Queens sometime around 2018. (wishful thinking)

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05-01-2012, 11:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twine Seeking Missle View Post
This won't go a day past the 2015 deadline. No extensions. None of that crap. Wang won't go for it and Bettman won't allow it.

After seeing the seating chart for Barclay's, Brooklyn is out. Nassau is obviously out. The only chance this team has is Queens and a shovel needs to be in the ground yesterday.

Pessimistic? You bet your ass I am. The writing is on the wall. Nothing is getting done here. Quebec has a new arena ready to go in 2015 and it looks like Seattle will as well.
Arenas often take about 2.5 years to complete these days. Thus, if a Queens arena breaks ground by February 2013, it can be completed by August 2015.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barclays_Center

Broke ground March 11, 2010[1]
Opened September 28, 2012 (scheduled)

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05-01-2012, 12:02 PM
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I think there will be a new Nassau Coliseum built in the parking lot of the current one, which means maybe a 1 year extension on the current lease to get that going.

I don't see the Islanders moving. And Queens and Brooklyn, to me are too close to Manhattan and Jersey, I think reality will set in, if the Isles make the playoffs in 2013, it may create that necessary momentum.

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05-01-2012, 12:09 PM
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I just can't bring myself to see this team moving out of state, so I'd say one of Nassau, Queens or Brooklyn will happen. I'm hoping something can still come through in Nassau, albeit doubtful, but I'd also like Queens.

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05-01-2012, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twine Seeking Missle View Post
This won't go a day past the 2015 deadline. No extensions. None of that crap. Wang won't go for it and Bettman won't allow it.
After seeing the seating chart for Barclay's, Brooklyn is out. Nassau is obviously out. The only chance this team has is Queens and a shovel needs to be in the ground yesterday.

Pessimistic? You bet your ass I am. The writing is on the wall. Nothing is getting done here. Quebec has a new arena ready to go in 2015 and it looks like Seattle will as well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why am I surprised, to realize the Canadian press took Bettman's Barclay's comments out of context,report only part of his comments?
This is the same press that reported a few yrs ago,that Wang had walked away from
control of the Isles and that the league was running the franchise

http://www.yesnetwork.com/news/artic...7182&oid=36318
Bettman is hopeful the Islanders can stay on Long Island, one way or the other. Though, he is open to change, if needed. Last week, in a meeting with the Associated Press Sports Editors, he approached the topic.

''Barclays, I suppose,'' he said, ''on some level, is an option.''

But he also stuck to his stance that a franchise with plenty of history and tradition - four Cups, five conference titles and six division crowns - should stay on Long Island. The Islanders finished the regular season at 34-37-11, and missed the playoffs for the fifth straight year.

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05-01-2012, 12:20 PM
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05-01-2012, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve55 View Post
Arenas often take about 2.5 years to complete these days. Thus, if a Queens arena breaks ground by February 2013, it can be completed by August 2015.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barclays_Center

Broke ground March 11, 2010[1]
Opened September 28, 2012 (scheduled)
You are correct. However, you are missing the fact that these things take years and years of negotiations before a shovel even hits the dirt. If the Islanders have had conversations with Queens, they have been of the preliminary stage at best. Even if they started hardcore negotiations right this second, there is no way they would be able to break ground in that time frame. It's impossible with the way these things work unfortunately.

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05-01-2012, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twine Seeking Missle View Post
You are correct. However, you are missing the fact that these things take years and years of negotiations before a shovel even hits the dirt. If the Islanders have had conversations with Queens, they have been of the preliminary stage at best. Even if they started hardcore negotiations right this second, there is no way they would be able to break ground in that time frame. It's impossible with the way these things work unfortunately.
So,they sign a short term lease to play at Barclay's center while the Queens arena is being built.

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05-01-2012, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why am I surprised, to realize the Canadian press took Bettman's Barclay's comments out of context,report only part of his comments?
This is the same press that reported a few yrs ago,that Wang had walked away from
control of the Isles and that the league was running the franchise

http://www.yesnetwork.com/news/artic...7182&oid=36318
Bettman is hopeful the Islanders can stay on Long Island, one way or the other. Though, he is open to change, if needed. Last week, in a meeting with the Associated Press Sports Editors, he approached the topic.

''Barclays, I suppose,'' he said, ''on some level, is an option.''

But he also stuck to his stance that a franchise with plenty of history and tradition - four Cups, five conference titles and six division crowns - should stay on Long Island. The Islanders finished the regular season at 34-37-11, and missed the playoffs for the fifth straight year.
The scary thing about Bettman is that regarding the Isles and the coliseum, he has had a very hard stance. He says point blank that there is no possible way the Isles play in the building past 2015. He makes no bones about it. Playing in the coliseum past 2015 isn't an option in his mind.

But ask him about the Coyotes and he is doing everything in his power to keep that team there.

As for the cups... who cares? That was 25-30 years ago. Just because a team won cups 30 years ago has no bearing on today. I never understood that. So if the Jets or Whalers had won a cup before 1996, they would have stayed in Winnipeg or Hartford regardless of their dire financial situation at the time? Come on. Not a chance.

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05-01-2012, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
So,they sign a short term lease to play at Barclay's center while the Queens arena is being built.
Ok, that works. But why wait then? Nassau county, Charles Wang, Brooklyn and Queens all know the lease is up in 2015. They also know it takes 3 years to build an arena (except that retard mangano... or was it that other dude? who said it would take 18 months). So if you do the math, it's time to **** or get off the pot. The common misconception is that they have until 2015 to get something done. 2012 IS the 11th hour. And yet, nothing is being done. I just don't see how this gets done in 2014 when nothing is being done NOW. Maybe the Isles need to literally bring the moving trucks to the building and start packing stuff away. Why let it get to that though?

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05-01-2012, 12:58 PM
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I don't think the NHL will move mountains to keep the Isles from moving out of state. They're not abandoning the NY market, since they have the Rangers and even the Devils in the area, and there's not much fight left in those who want to see the Isles stay where they are. The organization has done its best to drive all interest away the team, even if unintentionally, so it'll just be a few of us angry about it on blogs, and it'll generate a few sympathetic headlines for a little while. But then the NHL will be promoting how exciting it is that hockey is returning to Quebec, and the headlines will follow.

I'm a natural pessimist though, so take that for what it's worth.

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05-01-2012, 01:00 PM
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I think the whole arena discussion drags on for the next year or two, with the same posturing/lip service being paid as now, just to torture us fans. Afterwards there is a 1-2yr extension in Nassau which kicks off the real negotiations.. deadlines were made to be broken, so despite what Bettman and others are saying, nothing really gets done for the next year or 2. Afterwards 60-40 they stay where they are with a new arena built as cheaply as possible, completed around 2017. If Nassau/TOH still do not find religion when their backs are to the walls and with more elections looming, then Queens or even Suffolk become very likely.

On a brighter note, I am very optimistic on this team on ice possibilities by 2016. All of these prospects will have reached maturity by then and even if some of them don't pan out we should be a solid playoff team.. JT will be in his mid 20s and the rest of the core will still be in their prime... that is unless management screws up (like that has ever happened before) hmmmmm

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05-01-2012, 01:06 PM
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05-01-2012, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twine Seeking Missle View Post
Ok, that works. But why wait then? Nassau county, Charles Wang, Brooklyn and Queens all know the lease is up in 2015. They also know it takes 3 years to build an arena (except that retard mangano... or was it that other dude? who said it would take 18 months). So if you do the math, it's time to **** or get off the pot. The common misconception is that they have until 2015 to get something done. 2012 IS the 11th hour. And yet, nothing is being done. I just don't see how this gets done in 2014 when nothing is being done NOW. Maybe the Isles need to literally bring the moving trucks to the building and start packing stuff away. Why let it get to that though?
I wasn't closely watching the Pens arena fight.I do recall they held talks with pols in other cities,toured other arenas.Had one foot out the door,until an 11th hour deal was reached.

Wang's held on for about 11 yrs now.With Souzzuo giving him control of Coliseum events,it's eased his financial losses.It makes sense to wait until 2015,see what desperate County pols might offer up.

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05-01-2012, 01:42 PM
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I don't think staying in the NVMC a day beyond the end of the lease is even a possibility. Problems in the building go beyond cosmetics. For starters, the ice plant needs to be replaced (or have you missed those giant temporary air conditioners that were installed this year to get the building cool enough so that the ice was borderline usable). The county/SMG won't want to spend the maintenance costs to keep the building operational without a long-term guarantee. My guess is that sometime in the next year, the county puts the property out for RFP, without a requirement that a rink be part of the development, and that the land is sold out from under Wang because the county needs the infusion of money.

Beyond that Brooklyn, for the moment, is the most logical destination. Other than rumors, Suffolk and Queens don't look to have that much interest (unless it's well disguised). Brooklyn has issues, including a funky layout and issues of access (some serious) for some of the existing base. But that 14,500 seat arena (plus additional obstructed seats) can actually generate more ticket income than the NVMC -- even if it is sold out and ticket prices are the same -- thanks to Barclays high number of club (premium) seats. The rest -- access to revenue from the luxury boxes, concessions, advertising, etc. -- is something that has to be worked out. But given that Barclays is also part of the larger Atlantic Yards development that still needs investors; Ratner has shown a willingness to take on partners, as he did with the Nets; and that Wang and Ratner have a friendly relationship, tons of possibilities exist.

As far as moving out of the area, to quote Bettman, at some level, I suppose it is an option. But for that to happen, you need to find a buyer willing to pay for and eat the cable deal, plus cover the likely relocation fee (at least $60 million, going by the Thrashers move). In other words, not just pay over market value, but pay way, way over market value, for that to happen, unless you think Wang will willingly take a huge loss if another lifeboat (Brooklyn) is available to him.

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05-01-2012, 03:00 PM
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I think one important point that seems to be overlooked, is the product on the ice and how it will affect the Islanders future. If the Islanders continue to flounder this coming season and next, the attendence figures will show a lack of support for the team. Although we (the true Islander fans), know that's not the case, politicians, dopey sports writers and some in the press will claim the Islanders are no longer viable on Long Island or the surrounding area and I think the Islanders will leave the NY metro area.

On the other hand, if the Islanders start to become a force on the ice, the chances of staying on Long Island are much better, but given that, I still think it's 50/50 at best. There are too many factors.
How will the economy be in the next few years, will the Long Island region comeback in that time period? If there are 2 new buildings (Quebec and Seattle), and there's an ownership willing to pay, why would the Isles stay?

With all that in mind, I would say the Islanders will be in Seattle in 2016. The NHL is top heavy on the east coast and upper midwest. Pacific teams have horrendous travel schedules, due to the distances between teams (I think that's one of the reasons, not the main one, that Bettman wants to keep the Yotes in Phx) . All of that extra mileage, takes a physical toll on players as well as a financial toll on the team's pocketbooks. Seattle would be a big help cutting down on the travel, not too mention taking another team out of the densely packed east coast.

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05-01-2012, 03:27 PM
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Hopefully hoisting the Stanley Cup, where it is done is another story.

If we get to the next season end without a permanent solution I fear that a move out of state becomes inevitable. At that point Kate Murray becomes the laughingstock of all people who follow hockey. The woman who let a team move the year before they win the Cup . . .

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05-01-2012, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twine Seeking Missle View Post
This won't go a day past the 2015 deadline. No extensions. None of that crap. Wang won't go for it and Bettman won't allow it.

After seeing the seating chart for Barclay's, Brooklyn is out. Nassau is obviously out. The only chance this team has is Queens and a shovel needs to be in the ground yesterday.

Pessimistic? You bet your ass I am. The writing is on the wall. Nothing is getting done here. Quebec has a new arena ready to go in 2015 and it looks like Seattle will as well.
this is how I feel....I dont see it looking good from here....

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05-01-2012, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by LAIslanderFan View Post
I think one important point that seems to be overlooked, is the product on the ice and how it will affect the Islanders future. If the Islanders continue to flounder this coming season and next, the attendence figures will show a lack of support for the team. Although we (the true Islander fans), know that's not the case, politicians, dopey sports writers and some in the press will claim the Islanders are no longer viable on Long Island or the surrounding area and I think the Islanders will leave the NY metro area.

On the other hand, if the Islanders start to become a force on the ice, the chances of staying on Long Island are much better, but given that, I still think it's 50/50 at best. There are too many factors.
How will the economy be in the next few years, will the Long Island region comeback in that time period? If there are 2 new buildings (Quebec and Seattle), and there's an ownership willing to pay, why would the Isles stay?
This is why I was hoping prior to last season they would make the playoffs for reasons other than just having a successful season. The better they perform on the ice, the more publicity they get, the more fans show up and the more pressure politicians feel to get it done. If they were two time stanley cup champs going into this year, there would be a plan in place by now and a shovel in the ground in the near future. While a Cup is not realistic, a second round appearance could have had a material impact, creating a little bit of a buzz and positive feelings about the teams future.. seems to be helping in Phoenix.

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05-01-2012, 04:16 PM
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In 2016, they will be in a new Coliseum in Nassau after they needed to use the Barclay's Center in Brooklyn for a season or two before that. I don't see Queens or Suffolk as a viable option now, and I want Western Suffolk so bad, but it doesnt seem to be a viable option/

The best thing to happen in the next few months is now that we have Ratner talking about wanting the Isles in Brooklyn and there being a viable option there (Barclay) the next best things are for more concrete plans in Queens and Suffolk proposing something. The more options the better AND it will get the Isles more press AND most importantly it will get Nassau off its butt and maybe someone like Mangano telling Murray to get off her ass.

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05-01-2012, 04:24 PM
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The only answer to this question is Brooklyn IMO. They will play at the Barclays until something is worked out in Nassau, Queens, or Suffolk.

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