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ATD2012 Red Fisher Conference Finals: Pittsburgh Keystones vs. Inglewood Jacks

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Old
05-05-2012, 12:57 PM
  #1
seventieslord
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ATD2012 Red Fisher Conference Finals: Pittsburgh Keystones vs. Inglewood Jacks



Cecil Hart

Harry Watson - Wayne Gretzky (C) - Jari Kurri
Baldy Northcott - Pat Lafontaine - Alexander Mogilny
Ross Lonsberry - Rod Brind'Amour (A) - Ron Ellis
Murray Murdoch - Bernie Nicholls - Bill Ezinicki

Moose Johnson (A) - Brian Leetch
George Boucher (A) - Jimmy Watson
Lloyd Cook - Kimmo Timonen

Tiny Thompson
Rogie Vachon


Spare: Pavol Demitra (LW/RW/C), Mike Richards (C), Robyn Regehr (D), Pavel Kubina (D)

(tentative) Special Teams:

PP1: Leetch - Nicholls - Gretzky - Kurri - Watson
PP2: Boucher - Timonen - Lafontaine - Mogilny - Northcott

PK1: Johnson - Watson - Brind'Amour - Northcott
PK2: Leetch - Cook - Gretzky - Kurri

vs.

Pittsburgh Keystones

Head Coach: Hap Day
Assistant Coach: Billy Reay

Gary Roberts - Henri Richard (C) - Boom Boom Geoffrion
John LeClair - Eric Lindros - Jim Pappin
Gilles Tremblay - Blair Russel - Bob Nevin (A)
Dave Trottier - Ken Linseman - Ken Randall

Gus Mortson - Bobby Orr
Lionel Hitchman - Rob Blake (A)
Allan "Eagle Eye" Cameron - Jerry Korab

Gump Worsley

Dave Kerr

Spares:
RW Anders Hedberg, C Dennis Maruk, D Dave Langevin

PP1: LeClair-Richard-Lindros-Geoffrion-Orr
PP2: Roberts-Linseman-Pappin-Korab-Blake

PK1: Russel-Nevin-Hitchman-Orr
PK2: Richard-Tremblay-Mortson-Blake
extras: Trottier, Linseman, Cameron

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Old
05-05-2012, 06:40 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Who would have thought that Harry Watson of all people would be the best first line left wing of any semi finalist?


Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 05-05-2012 at 06:46 PM.
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05-05-2012, 06:52 PM
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Because Gary Roberts is SO much better..

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05-05-2012, 06:59 PM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Who would have thought that Harry Watson of all people would be the best first line left wing of any semi finalist?
Not me, that is for sure.

Wow.

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05-05-2012, 07:18 PM
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Who would have thought that Harry Watson of all people would be the best first line left wing of any semi finalist?
Naslund or Leclair is the best LW left IMO.

And Zetterberg is totally better than Watson.

Watson:
7th in pts
2nd & 9th in goals

Zetterberg:
2nd team all-star
Conn Smythe
6th & 8th in pts
5th in goals
5th in assists

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Old
05-05-2012, 10:48 PM
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seventieslord
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I'd like to see a properly done comparison of Roberts and Watson. I imagine they are really close.

Neither is ideal for a first line by any stretch. I've managed to have Watson on a 3rd and 4th line before, and I think he's elite in that role, but probably best suited to be a 2nd line glue guy.

The thing is, he's got Gretzky and Kurri, and it could be said that it really doesn't matter who you put with those two.

Geoffrion and Richard are not as strong a tandem, so if anyone is being asked to do too much here, it is probably Roberts.

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05-06-2012, 12:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
Naslund or Leclair is the best LW left IMO.

And Zetterberg is totally better than Watson.
I'd probably take Leclair from that lacklustre bunch. And yeah, Zetterberg is easily better than Watson.

This is a tough series to evaluate. I don't think either team is going to do a good job of stopping the other's main weapon, so it could very well end up being totally wide open.

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05-06-2012, 12:06 AM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Depends on how much of Zetterberg's accomplishments you want to credit as a LW. I would actually take him over any of the LWs left if you give him full credit

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05-06-2012, 12:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I'd like to see a properly done comparison of Roberts and Watson. I imagine they are really close.

Neither is ideal for a first line by any stretch. I've managed to have Watson on a 3rd and 4th line before, and I think he's elite in that role, but probably best suited to be a 2nd line glue guy.

The thing is, he's got Gretzky and Kurri, and it could be said that it really doesn't matter who you put with those two.

Geoffrion and Richard are not as strong a tandem, so if anyone is being asked to do too much here, it is probably Roberts.
Yeah, Watson is definly better suited to a second line. I mean, Northcott is a second liner and he's clearly better than Watson.

Watson vs Roberts? I wouldn't be surprised if they were very close offensively, but doesn't Watson have a pretty good decent defensive game too and wasn't he something of a playoff hero?


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05-06-2012, 02:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Depends on how much of Zetterberg's accomplishments you want to credit as a LW. I would actually take him over any of the LWs left if you give him full credit
Except that AFAIK vast majority of his accomplishments came actually playing C, no?

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05-06-2012, 04:30 AM
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seventieslord
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Yeah, Watson is definenters enter suited to a second line. I mean, Northcott is a second liner and he's clearly better than Watson.
I have no idea what you're trying to say. I think autocorrect threw in an obscure word for you.

Quote:
Watson vs Roberts? I wouldn't be surprised if they were very close offensively, but doesn't Watson have a pretty good decent defensive game too and wasn't he something of a playoff hero?
yes on the defensive part.

as for the playoff hero part, he didn't get a lot of playoff points (25 in 62) - but it seemed like a high proportion of them were clutch.

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05-06-2012, 04:34 AM
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seventieslord
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by the way, what percentage of playoff games did Lindros miss in his career? I don't think it was as high as 29%.

edit: looks like he played 51 straight playoff games, then missed 22 straight, played 2, missed 6 (if we count that year, and I did in the regular season figures), and then played 3 of 7 for Dallas in 2007 but that wasn't close to his prime and I didn't include that in the regular season figures.

so, in his 9-year prime he played 53 of 81 playoff games. 65%. basically the same as his regular season percentage.

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05-06-2012, 07:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Depends on how much of Zetterberg's accomplishments you want to credit as a LW. I would actually take him over any of the LWs left if you give him full credit
Well, therein lies the rub, because I think Zett is a bit like Brind'amour in that he clearly can play the LW, but his best seasons are also clearly as a C.

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05-06-2012, 12:52 PM
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Well, therein lies the rub, because I think Zett is a bit like Brind'amour in that he clearly can play the LW, but his best seasons are also clearly as a C.
Didnt Zetterberg play LW during the 08 season? The years before that too I think. He's been mixed and matched so much except for the last two seasons that its hard to distuingish when and where he was a C and a LW.

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05-06-2012, 01:31 PM
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Rob Scuderi
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Playoff numbers to come later

Gary Roberts
x3 ASGs
Goals: 3, 15, 23, 28 (58 GP)
Points: 17, 26

70s vs#2 numbers: 84, 75, 57, 56, 56, 55, 55, 54, 53, 46
AST voting: 3, 6, 6, T7,
Overpass's numbers: 1224 GP / 51 ESP / 15PPP, 38% usage, 1.03 rating

Harry Watson
x7 ASGs
Top-20 in goals 7 Times (2nd, 9th, 12th, 15th, 17th, 17th, 19th)
Top-20 in points 3 Times (7th, 16th, 20th)

70s vs#2 numbers: 68, 68, 57, 56, 51, 48, 46, 43, 43, 42
AST voting: 3, 4, T4, 5, 7,
Hart: T8

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05-06-2012, 03:08 PM
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Another important comparison on our first lines. Geoffrion and Kurri were selected spots (spot?) apart.

Bernie Geoffrion
x1 1st AST
x2 2nd AST
x11 ASGs
x2 Art Ross Trophy winner
x1 Hart Trophy winner

Goal Finishes: 1, 1, 3, 3, 5, 5, 8, 9
Assist finishes: 6, 6, 6, 7, 10
Point finishes: 1, 1, 4, 6, 6, 7, 7
Playoff Goals: 1 ('57), 1 ('54), T2 ('55), 3 ('53), 4 ('58), T4 ('56), T5 ('59), 6 ('52),
Playoff Assists: 1 ('60), T2 ('56), T2 ('57), T3 ('59), 5 ('54), 9 ('58), T10 ('55),
Playoff Points: 1 ('57), T1 ('60), 2 ('53), 2 ('54), T2 ('56), 3 ('59), T4 ('55), T7 ('58),

70s vs#2: 106, 101, 89, 81, 78, 78, 73, 63, 55, 53, 47, 45

AST voting: 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5,
Hart: 1, 7, 12, T13th, T13th

Jari Kurri
2x 1st-Team NHL All Star
x3 2nd-Team NHL All Star
x8 ASGs
2x WC All Star Team

4x Top 10 Goals (1, 2, 3, 5)
6x Top 17 Assists (9, 9, 10, 16, 16, 17)
8x Top 19 Points (2, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 13, 19)
Playoff Goals: 1 ('84), 1 ('85), 1 ('87), 1 ('88), T7 ('90), T9 ('93)
Playoff Assists: T3('84),T4 ('88), 5 ('83), T6 ('90), T9 ('86), 10 ('85)
Playoff Points: 2 ('84),3 ('85), 3 ('88), 4 ('90), 6 ('87), 7 ('83)

Overpass's numbers: 1251 GP / 56 ESP / 24 PPP, 50% usage, 1.07 team quality / 26% PK, 0.86 rating
70s vs#2 numbers: 107, 107, 103, 95, 93, 86, 79, 73, 69, 62, 61, 57, 56, 41

AST voting: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 5, 6, T8,
Hart: 14
6x Top 11 Selke Voting (2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11)


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Old
05-06-2012, 04:04 PM
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seventieslord
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I thought Kurri was close to Geoffrion................... oops.

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Old
05-06-2012, 04:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bring Back Scuderi View Post
Playoff numbers to come later

Gary Roberts
x3 ASGs
Goals: 3, 15, 23, 28 (58 GP)
Points: 17, 26

70s vs#2 numbers: 84, 75, 57, 56, 56, 55, 55, 54, 53, 46
AST voting: 3, 6, 6, T7,
Overpass's numbers: 1224 GP / 51 ESP / 15PPP, 38% usage, 1.03 rating

Harry Watson
x7 ASGs
Top-20 in goals 7 Times (2nd, 9th, 12th, 15th, 17th, 17th, 19th)
Top-20 in points 3 Times (7th, 16th, 20th)

70s vs#2 numbers: 68, 68, 57, 56, 51, 48, 46, 43, 43, 42
AST voting: 3, 4, T4, 5, 7,
Hart: T8
Considering AST voting is a pretty weak indicator past the first few players, and these two are pretty similar in intangibles (but in a different way) I think this can boil down to offense.

Roberts' vs #2 scores are better by a bit, but we've also observed that it's a bit tougher to post those scores in the O6. I think they are practically even offensively, all things considered. They are both even heavily goals-biased.

In the playoffs, Roberts is looked at as a "playoff warrior", yet, his career offensive stats aren't what you'd think they'd be. (Like Watson. Or Nieuwendyk. Or Claude Lemieux.)

One x-factor is, I am sure if you looked at pergame figures, Roberts would be the better prime producer, but then this means you're conceding he will miss a game, maybe two, in this series. Whereas that is not a problem for Watson.

I really don't know which, if any, is better.

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05-06-2012, 04:19 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Considering AST voting is a pretty weak indicator past the first few players, and these two are pretty similar in intangibles (but in a different way) I think this can boil down to offense.

Roberts' vs #2 scores are better by a bit, but we've also observed that it's a bit tougher to post those scores in the O6. I think they are practically even offensively, all things considered. They are both even heavily goals-biased.

In the playoffs, Roberts is looked at as a "playoff warrior", yet, his career offensive stats aren't what you'd think they'd be. (Like Watson. Or Nieuwendyk. Or Claude Lemieux.)

One x-factor is, I am sure if you looked at pergame figures, Roberts would be the better prime producer, but then this means you're conceding he will miss a game, maybe two, in this series. Whereas that is not a problem for Watson.

I really don't know which, if any, is better.

Do you now disagree with the profile you made of Harry Watson that indicated him to be a very good defensive player? Because Roberts wasn't exactly known as a two-way guy.

If Harry Watson is really no better than Roberts, his name ought to come up in the "worst player in the HHOF" conversation more often.

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05-06-2012, 04:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Do you now disagree with the profile you made of Harry Watson that indicated him to be a very good defensive player? Because Roberts wasn't exactly known as a two-way guy.

If Harry Watson is really no better than Roberts, his name ought to come up in the "worst player in the HHOF" conversation more often.
Like many other guys from that era, he's definitely a weak induction.

But I think him having a notable defensive game puts him a notch over Roberts, and gives that line very solid defensive play as a whole.

Anyhow, I've been out all weekend, and I'm running off to a lacrosse clinic right now. I may be around tonight, but definitely tomorrow at some point.

cheers

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05-06-2012, 07:02 PM
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seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Do you now disagree with the profile you made of Harry Watson that indicated him to be a very good defensive player? Because Roberts wasn't exactly known as a two-way guy.

If Harry Watson is really no better than Roberts, his name ought to come up in the "worst player in the HHOF" conversation more often.
Oh, he's definitely in that conversation, like most veterans committee inductees.

I agree he has a better defensive game. But Roberts was on another level for consistent effort and intensity/grit from most players, Watson included. He has a leadership edge too, I think. That's why I speculated they were about even in intangibles.

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05-06-2012, 07:14 PM
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Rob Scuderi
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Playoff numbers

Watson has 2 sets of top-10 scoring worthy playoffs to Roberts's 1. That doesn't tell us everything so I tried to take a look at how each player finished in the playoffs in relation to their teammates. Watson's teams were better than Roberts's so it's worth accounting for that when looking at the differences in finishes. The regular season numbers are just there to help provide some context for the playoff finishes.

Harry Watson
Goals: T2 ('48), T4 ('49)
Points: T7 ('48), T9 ('49)

Finishes relative to teammates:
'46: T2 with 2+0 in 5GP / 5th in regular season
'47*: T6 with 3+2 in 11GP / 6th in regular season
'48*: T4 with 5+2 in 9GP / 4th in regular season
'49*: T5 with 4+2 in 9GP / 1st in regular season
'50: n/a with 0+0 in 7GP / 5th in regular season
'51*: injured; 1+2 in 5/11 GP / 6th in regular season
'52: T3 with 1+0 in 4GP / 6th in regular season
'54: T7 with 0+1 in 5GP / 6th in regular season

Gary Roberts
Goals: 10 ('02)
Assists: 4 ('02)
Points: T3 ('02)

Finishes relative to teammates:
'88: T8 with 2+3 in 9GP / 13th in regular season
'89*: T8 with 5+7 in 22GP / T9 in regular season
'90: 2 with 2+5 in 6GP / 6th in regular season
'91: T5 with 1+3 in 7GP / 7th in regular season
'93: T3 with 1+6 in 5GP / 4th in regular season
'94: T2 with 2+6 in 7GP / 3rd in regular season
'99: T6 with 1+1 in 6GP / 5th in regular season
'01: 2 with 2+9 in 11GP / 2nd in regular season
'02: 1 with 7+12 in 19GP / 6th in regular season
'03: T9 with 1+1 in 7GP / 14GP in regular season
'04: T2 with 4+4 in 13GP / T4 in regular season
'07: T2 with 2+2 in 5GP / regular season split by mid-year trade
* Cup wins

This excludes Roberts '08 playoffs where he played 11/20GP at the end of his playoff career and Watson's 7/10 GP in'43 to start his playoff career.

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05-07-2012, 08:44 PM
  #23
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Lindros-LeClair and Lafontaine-Mogilny are the key pieces of our second lines and I think I have an edge in each matchup. I'll post Pappin and Northcott's numbers later but it's an obvious edge to Baldy.

Eric Lindros
x1 Hart Trophy winner
x1 Ted Lindsay award winner
x1 1st AST
x1 2nd AST
x6 ASGs

Goal finishes: 6, 7, 9, 9, 12, 20,
Assists: 4, 6, 9, 16, 17
Points: 1, 6, 7, 12, 15, 20, 20

Overpass's numbers: 760 GP / 78 ESP / 32 PPP, 68% PP usage, 1.06 quality
70s Vs#2 numbers: 100, 100, 87, 87, 81, 80, 78, 63, 53, 51

AST voting: 1, 2, 3, 5
Hart: 1, 3, 6, 9

Pat Lafontaine
x1 2nd AST
x5 ASGs

Goals: 5 ('90), 5 ('92), T11 ('89), T11 ('93), 12 ('88), 13 ('91), 17 ('96), T19 ('87)
Assists: 3 ('93)
Points: 2 ('93), 8 ('90), 14('92), T16 ('88), 19 ('89)

Overpass's numbers: 865 GP / 57 ESP / 35 PP, 72% PP usage, 1.05 rating
70s Vs#2 numbers: 104, 87, 83, 80, 79, 76, 74, 68, 67, 43, 43

AST voting: 2, 5, 5
Hart: 3, T5

Alexander Mogilny
x2 2nd ASTs
x4 ASGs

Goals: 1 ('93), 3 ('96), 6 ('01), 18 ('92), 20 ('03)
Assists: 20 ('96)
Points: 7 ('93), 10 ('96), 15 ('01), 15 ('03)

Overpass's numbers: 990 GP / 62 ESP / 30 PPP, 60% PP usage, 1.07 rating
70s Vs#2 numbers: 93, 89, 86 79, 76, 74, 71, 67, 63, 56, 49, 47, 42

AST voting: 2, 2, T7, 10

John LecLair
x2 1st ASTs
x3 2nd ASTs
x5 ASGs

Goal Finishes: T2 ('98), T2 ('99), T3 ('97), T4 ('96), 7 ('00), T7 ('95)
Assist Finishes: T17 ('99)
Point Finishes: T4 ('97), T5 ('98), 9 ('95), 9 ('99), 13 ('00), 16 ('96)

Overpass's numbers: 967 GP / 62 ESP / 22 PPP, 53% PP usage, 1.06 quality
70s Vs#2 numbers: 98, 96, 84, 84, 82, 77, 63, 57, 41

AST voting: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3
Hart: 6, 7


Last edited by Rob Scuderi: 05-07-2012 at 11:52 PM.
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05-08-2012, 01:32 AM
  #24
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Except that AFAIK vast majority of his accomplishments came actually playing C, no?
zetterberg only played mostly LW before the lockout.

'03, '04: LW
'06: C
'07, '08: mostly C, but also LW
'09, '10: C
'11: mostly C but started at LW
'12: C

he started '11 at LW, but played C for most of the season.


datsyuk played almost always C in every season except '08.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hobnobs View Post
Didnt Zetterberg play LW during the 08 season? The years before that too I think. He's been mixed and matched so much except for the last two seasons that its hard to distuingish when and where he was a C and a LW.
mostly C in '08, and datsyuk played more LW.

faceoffs in '08
zetterberg: 1210
datsyuk: 833 ------ (played 7 more games than zetterberg)

faceoff %'s were almost identical. 55% vs 54.4%


when zetterberg played with datsyuk, they were more or less interchangeable, but both play better at C.

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05-08-2012, 09:24 AM
  #25
seventieslord
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I think if we want to definitively know what percentage of time Zetterberg spent at C vs. LW, we just need to look at his number of faceoffs taken relative to his total TOI:

nik is a Wings fan and says Zetterberg played C exclusively in the 2012 season, which also happens to be the season he or anyone else is most likely to be correct about.

Zetterberg played 1627 minutes and took 1115 faceoffs, which is 0.685 per minute. So anything in the 0.66 range or above probably represents a season spent entirely at center.

actually, considering Helm took 0.77 faceoffs per minute and Datsyuk took 0.88 per minute, those figures are probably closer to the standard for a full-time center. I didn't watch the Wings, but I think Zetterberg had to be playing some shifts at the wing to have such a low average compared to full time centers.

his other figures:

2011: 984/1567 = 0.63
2010: 1098/1485 = 0.74
2009: 1189/1531 = 0.78
2008: 1210/1655 = 0.73
2007: 888/1313 = 0.68
2006: 583/1460 = 0.40
2004: 627/1113 = 0.56
2003: 401/1288 = 0.31

based on this it looks like nik is mistaken that Zetterberg was a C in 2006. he was taking as many faceoffs as he had before the lockout. It was only in 2007 and beyond that he took as many faceoffs as you'd expect a full time (or most of the time) center to take.

If I was to use these numbers to speculate on his position, I would say this:

2003-2006: mostly LW, some C
2007-2012: mostly C, some LW

unless these numbers are lying to me somehow.

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