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2012 NHL Draft Thread III (June 22nd-23rd)

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Old
06-17-2012, 06:23 AM
  #801
KeithBWhittington
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Originally Posted by Sore Loser View Post
Remind me why we would want another John Moore? Do we really need two of those guys?
The whole line of thinking is that breaking out of your own zone, Moore still has tons of upside, as does Skjei, and the fact that Howson specifically targeted Moore and traded down to get him and Skjei is has similar abilities.

Probably not likely that we move down this far, and Skjei is probably more of a project at this point than Moore was when he was taken, but its something to chew on with the news that he's, at least, fielding offers.

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06-17-2012, 06:54 AM
  #802
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Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
One name continues to prevade my thinking now that its become official that the CBJ are at least fielding offers for the 2nd overall. Howson seemed general pleased, despite the +/- rating, with John Moore's inagural season in Columbus. Moore was billed as the best-skating defenseman in his draft. This year, Brad Skjei with the USNDTP is rated very similar, skating-wise, to John Moore, and many mocks I've seen have him going with in the 19-26 range (Moore went 18th).

I don't forsee a drastic tradedown until the early twenties, but if Howson wants him, he could potentially get extra pick(s) back to move down into the teens or 20.
If we were to move into that range I would think it would be up from 30/31 not down from 2. And were we to do that it would probably be to grab one of the top goalies. Just my guess.

Really need to fill THAT pipeline more so than additional D prospects.

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06-17-2012, 07:51 AM
  #803
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Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
The whole line of thinking is that breaking out of your own zone, Moore still has tons of upside, as does Skjei, and the fact that Howson specifically targeted Moore and traded down to get him and Skjei is has similar abilities.

Probably not likely that we move down this far, and Skjei is probably more of a project at this point than Moore was when he was taken, but its something to chew on with the news that he's, at least, fielding offers.
Not exactly how it happened, but Moore was certainly on our radar. Howson said he was shocked Moore lasted that long. He initially dropped down to 26th from 16th, and then once he saw John last til 21, he traded up again. Makes me wonder who he expected to pick at 26.

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06-17-2012, 07:56 AM
  #804
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Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
One name continues to prevade my thinking now that its become official that the CBJ are at least fielding offers for the 2nd overall. Howson seemed general pleased, despite the +/- rating, with John Moore's inagural season in Columbus. Moore was billed as the best-skating defenseman in his draft. This year, Brad Skjei with the USNDTP is rated very similar, skating-wise, to John Moore, and many mocks I've seen have him going with in the 19-26 range (Moore went 18th).

I don't forsee a drastic tradedown until the early twenties, but if Howson wants him, he could potentially get extra pick(s) back to move down into the teens or 20.
Please stop doing whatever it is that is influencing your thoughts. Live clean. Why in (insert preferred deity here)'s name would Howson do that?

And remember, the last time he traded out of the 16th spot, he missed out on a guy named Chris Kreider (off course he wouldn't have taken him anyway)

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06-17-2012, 10:14 AM
  #805
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Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Please stop doing whatever it is that is influencing your thoughts. Live clean. Why in (insert preferred deity here)'s name would Howson do that?

And remember, the last time he traded out of the 16th spot, he missed out on a guy named Chris Kreider (off course he wouldn't have taken him anyway)
Once again, I'm not advocating any of this, I probably wouldn't move back at all in this draft. Its simply a thought I had as I went though a few mocks and a few reviews.

And I seem to remember there being some question exactly what Kreider's upside at the time would be since his window of experience was high school up to that point. He would have been a bit of a gamble, cause he was still a bit of a project.

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06-17-2012, 10:21 AM
  #806
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Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
One name continues to prevade my thinking now that its become official that the CBJ are at least fielding offers for the 2nd overall. Howson seemed general pleased, despite the +/- rating, with John Moore's inagural season in Columbus. Moore was billed as the best-skating defenseman in his draft. This year, Brad Skjei with the USNDTP is rated very similar, skating-wise, to John Moore, and many mocks I've seen have him going with in the 19-26 range (Moore went 18th).

I don't forsee a drastic tradedown until the early twenties, but if Howson wants him, he could potentially get extra pick(s) back to move down into the teens or 20.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
The whole line of thinking is that breaking out of your own zone, Moore still has tons of upside, as does Skjei, and the fact that Howson specifically targeted Moore and traded down to get him and Skjei is has similar abilities.

Probably not likely that we move down this far, and Skjei is probably more of a project at this point than Moore was when he was taken, but its something to chew on with the news that he's, at least, fielding offers.
The only similarities I've seen in scouting reports is in skating and in outlet passing. That's pretty much where the comparisons end...Moore was rated more highly in every other aspect over Skjei.

If being a smooth skater is that important, why not just invite Rico Fata to training camp? If I live to be 100, I might never see another guy with as fluid and as explosive of a stride as Fata...he and his 27 career goals.

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06-17-2012, 10:42 AM
  #807
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
The only similarities I've seen in scouting reports is in skating and in outlet passing. That's pretty much where the comparisons end...Moore was rated more highly in every other aspect over Skjei.

If being a smooth skater is that important, why not just invite Rico Fata to training camp? If I live to be 100, I might never see another guy with as fluid and as explosive of a stride as Fata...he and his 27 career goals.
As I read "smooth" and "Rico", I'm having Gerardo Mejia flashbacks

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06-17-2012, 10:53 AM
  #808
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Originally Posted by KeithBWhittington View Post
As I read "smooth" and "Rico", I'm having Gerardo Mejia flashbacks
Well, Gerardo might be a more productive NHLer than Fata was.

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06-17-2012, 12:07 PM
  #809
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
So?

Narrow it down to the last 20 years, then take a look at how those players were acquired and for what. That leaves us:

1992-93 - 3rd-round pick nine years earlier (Patrick Roy)
1993-94 - 2nd-round pick nine years earlier (Mike Richter)
1994-95 - 1st-round pick five years earlier (Martin Brodeur)
1995-96 - Acquired six months earlier with Mike Keane for Kovalenko, Thibault, and Rucinsky (Patrick Roy)
1996-97 - Acquired three years earlier for Steve Chiasson (Mike Vernon)
1997-98 - 3rd-round pick seven years earlier (Chris Osgood)
1998-99 - Signed as a free agent two years earlier (Ed Belfour)
1999-00 - 1st-round pick ten years earlier (Brodeur)
2000-01 - Acquired five years earlier in the same deal referenced for 1995-96 (Patrick Roy)
2001-02 - Acquired one year earlier for Slava Kozlov and a 1st-rounder (Dominik Hasek)
2002-03 - 1st-round pick thirteen years earlier (Brodeur)
2003-04 - Acquired three years earlier with Stanislav Neckar for Mike Johnson, Paul Mara, Ruslan Zainullin, and a 2nd-rounder (Nikolai Khabibulin)
2005-06 - 1st-round pick four years earlier (Cam Ward)
2006-07 - Acquired seven years earlier for 2nd-round pick (J-S Giguere)
2007-08 - Signed as free agent three years prior (Chris Osgood)
2008-09 - 1st-round pick six years earlier (Marc-Andre Fleury)
2009-10 - Signed as undrafted European free agent two years earlier (Antti Niemi)
2010-11 - Signed as undrafted European free agent nine years earlier (Tim Thomas)
2011-12 - 3rd-round pick seven years earlier (Jonathan Quick)

My point is, and has been, that a significant outlay of assets to get a goalie isn't exactly a great idea. Essentially, it's the one position that mirrors the NFL development model...a good one can come from anywhere in the draft (or outside the draft), and the return on any goalie that ranks below "elite" in the market is less than would be expected for a forward or defenseman of similar caliber.

Don't forget that Jaroslav Halak had the huge playoff year, then was traded for a good-but-not-great prospect in Lars Eller. People were up in arms last year because Varlamov netted a 1st- and 2nd-round pick that was universally regarded as significant overpayment.

Harding was 38th overall...what's your point? Even if he were signed, I doubt that he'd net anything more than a 3rd-rounder in the trade market.
No, a good one can't come from anywhere in the draft.

Here we are again...

Quote:
Penguins #2-not drafted by team acquired for package including the guy they took #4 overall in the draft 5 months earlier (#5 overall)
Habs-drafted #51 overall
Rangers-drafted #28 overall
Devis-Drafted #20 overall
Avs--Not Drafted (Avs traded a package including #10 overall picked goalie from 93 draft)
Wings--Not Drafted (UFA) (#56 overall)
Wings--Drafted #54 overall
Stars--Not Drafted (UFA/undrafted)
Devils--Drafted #20 overall
Avs--Not Drafted (See above)
Detroit--Not Drafted (UFA) (#199 overall)
Devils--Drafted #20 overall
Lightning--Not Drafted (Traded package including 1997 #7 overall pick, 2000 #34 overall pick and 2nd round pick #31 overall) Originally drafted #204 overall
Canes--Drafted #25 overall
Ducks--Not Drafted (acquired for #43 overall pick and originally drafted #13 overall)
Wings--Drafted/reacquired as UFA #54 overall
Pens--Drafted #1 overall
Hawks--Not Drafted (UFA)
Bruins--Not Drafted (UFA)
Kings--Drafted #72 overall
So, what do we actually see?

1. 50% of the Cups won in the last 20 years were won by goalies drafted by the winning team.
2. Those goalies drafted by the team that won were taken in the first 3 rounds. Furthermore, only ONE of those goalies drafted by the winning team was taken outside of the first 60 picks (what is now the top 2 rounds)--Jon Quick.
3. The goalies who were not drafted by the winning team in three instances were undrafted players (Belfour, Thomas, Niemi) and in two instances were drafted with picks past round 5 (Hasek and Khabibulin). The other 5 were drafted in the top 60 picks.
4. Those who were not drafted by the winning team were acquired as UFAs in 6 instances (including Osgood, who was reacquired by the team that drafted him). The other 4 instances were trades--all of those trades included an asset which was a pick from the first two rounds of the draft.

Which leaves us here--if you want a Stanley Cup goalie, your best chance is by using a pick in the top 2 rounds, either by drafting yourself or by trading--that accounts for 14 of the last 20 Cups. Only 30% of the Cups in the last 20 years have been acquired without using an asset which was a pick in the top 2 rounds. And of those, 3 were undrafted, 1 (Hasek) was a late round draft pick and 2 were actually themselves drafted in the top 2 rounds.

Conclusion--you are likely to need to use a top 60 pick to acquire a goaltender if you are going to win the Cup. Hence, we should use one of our many picks in this range this year to acquire such a goaltender.

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06-17-2012, 12:22 PM
  #810
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
No, a good one can't come from anywhere in the draft.

Here we are again...

So, what do we actually see?

1. 50% of the Cups won in the last 20 years were won by goalies drafted by the winning team.
2. Those goalies drafted by the team that won were taken in the first 3 rounds. Furthermore, only ONE of those goalies drafted by the winning team was taken outside of the first 60 picks (what is now the top 2 rounds)--Jon Quick.
3. The goalies who were not drafted by the winning team in three instances were undrafted players (Belfour, Thomas, Niemi) and in two instances were drafted with picks past round 5 (Hasek and Khabibulin). The other 5 were drafted in the top 60 picks.
4. Those who were not drafted by the winning team were acquired as UFAs in 6 instances (including Osgood, who was reacquired by the team that drafted him). The other 4 instances were trades--all of those trades included an asset which was a pick from the first two rounds of the draft.

Which leaves us here--if you want a Stanley Cup goalie, your best chance is by using a pick in the top 2 rounds, either by drafting yourself or by trading--that accounts for 14 of the last 20 Cups. Only 30% of the Cups in the last 20 years have been acquired without using an asset which was a pick in the top 2 rounds. And of those, 3 were undrafted, 1 (Hasek) was a late round draft pick and 2 were actually themselves drafted in the top 2 rounds.

Conclusion--you are likely to need to use a top 60 pick to acquire a goaltender if you are going to win the Cup. Hence, we should use one of our many picks in this range this year to acquire such a goaltender.
This is like the age-old debates over who the better QB is based on sustained excellence versus winning championships. Of course, that's not really an age-old debate either; it basically goes back only as far as Fran Tarkenton.

This isn't golf or tennis, where ultimate success is very much up to the individual who's striving to achieve it. Average QBs can win Super Bowls if the team is strong enough elsewhere, and average goalies can win Stanley Cups the same way. Maybe they're merely solid, maybe they're average. Maybe the elite goalie opposing him is playing behind a horrid team.

Mike Vernon is on that list of the last 20 years, and if we back it to 23 years, we'd have him a second time. We would then be overlooking the fact that he was consistently brutal in the playoffs from 1990-96; his flaws were exposed in Calgary and covered in Detroit. We have Antti Niemi on that list, who's about average. Chris Osgood wasn't exactly Vezina-caliber. Imagine if Marty McSorley knew what a legal stick curve looked like; we'd have Kelly Hrudey on there. Or if Dan Cloutier could stop a shot from the red line...he would have outdueled Dominik Hasek, who would retire Cupless. Cloutier was a first-round pick; would that have meant anything?

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06-17-2012, 12:25 PM
  #811
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Originally Posted by EspenK View Post
Please stop doing whatever it is that is influencing your thoughts. Live clean. Why in (insert preferred deity here)'s name would Howson do that?

And remember, the last time he traded out of the 16th spot, he missed out on a guy named Chris Kreider (off course he wouldn't have taken him anyway)
Yeah, all we ended up with was John Moore and David Savard, with Larkin, Lynch, and Blomqvist still in the wings. Think of all those people who could have drafted Savard before we did!

Seriously, when I take over the world, spreading this "we missed out on [X remarkable breakthrough guy]" crap will be punishable by being beaten to death with oranges.

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06-17-2012, 12:28 PM
  #812
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Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
This is like the age-old debates over who the better QB is based on sustained excellence versus winning championships. Of course, that's not really an age-old debate either; it basically goes back only as far as Fran Tarkenton.

This isn't golf or tennis, where ultimate success is very much up to the individual who's striving to achieve it. Average QBs can win Super Bowls if the team is strong enough elsewhere, and average goalies can win Stanley Cups the same way. Maybe they're merely solid, maybe they're average. Maybe the elite goalie opposing him is playing behind a horrid team.

Mike Vernon is on that list of the last 20 years, and if we back it to 23 years, we'd have him a second time. We would then be overlooking the fact that he was consistently brutal in the playoffs from 1990-96; his flaws were exposed in Calgary and covered in Detroit. We have Antti Niemi on that list, who's about average. Chris Osgood wasn't exactly Vezina-caliber. Imagine if Marty McSorley knew what a legal stick curve looked like; we'd have Kelly Hrudey on there. Or if Dan Cloutier could stop a shot from the red line...he would have outdueled Dominik Hasek, who would retire Cupless. Cloutier was a first-round pick; would that have meant anything?
This is a lot of talk which amounts to nothing. I don't give two hoots about views on greatness vs. mediocrity. We were talking about what sort of assets it takes to get a goaltender good enough to be capable to win and we have the facts that show they were capable--they actually won. Your hypothesis that you can do just as well without using a significant asset is disproven. Moving on...

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06-17-2012, 02:40 PM
  #813
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Yeah, all we ended up with was John Moore and David Savard, with Larkin, Lynch, and Blomqvist still in the wings. Think of all those people who could have drafted Savard before we did!

Seriously, when I take over the world, spreading this "we missed out on [X remarkable breakthrough guy]" crap will be punishable by being beaten to death with oranges.
It's not crap when it's true.

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06-17-2012, 02:45 PM
  #814
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It's not crap when it's true.
Sure it's true, just as it is for every team in every league that operates with a draft.

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06-17-2012, 02:51 PM
  #815
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Hey, my approach will boost TV ratings. They've gone to hell since CBJCougar stopped sitting behind the Jackets bench.
Re: Your draft strategy being all about boobs.

I believe this is known as "The Cougar" strategy,
First used to acquire Cale Hulse.

Beats The HF Rule: "the more we agree on a choice the less likely it will happen".

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06-17-2012, 05:52 PM
  #816
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It's not crap when it's true.
I refer you to pete's reply. It happens to everybody, with everybody, at all times. Everybody has draft picks they regret, and it happens frequently to all any time they see someone they passed over. Thinking it's an exclusive disease of the Blue Jackets makes for a strange combination of egotistical arrogance and bullheaded depression.

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06-17-2012, 06:04 PM
  #817
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Remind me why we would want another John Moore? Do we really need two of those guys?
I really want this post to come back and bite you in the arse in about 5 years!

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06-17-2012, 09:27 PM
  #818
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I really want this post to come back and bite you in the arse in about 5 years!
Fair enough!

Washington has made it work with Mike Green and John Carlson (and signed Dennis Wideman), so it's not entirely impossible ... but we also don't have an Ovechkin or Backstrom. Let alone a Jason Chimera

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06-17-2012, 09:54 PM
  #819
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I'm doing a mock draft with me buddies.

Who do you think Columbus will take?

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06-17-2012, 09:56 PM
  #820
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I'm doing a mock draft with me buddies.

Who do you think Columbus will take?
i think we're pretty split b/t galy and murray

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06-17-2012, 10:12 PM
  #821
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Bluejackets fans...

Would you consider this.

2nd overall to Anaheim

For

6th overall and Andrew Cogliano.

Interested, or Would we have to add?

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06-17-2012, 10:36 PM
  #822
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Bluejackets fans...

Would you consider this.

2nd overall to Anaheim

For

6th overall and Andrew Cogliano.

Interested, or Would we have to add?
Add, add, add.

Who is it you want at 2?

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06-17-2012, 10:47 PM
  #823
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Add, add, add.

Who is it you want at 2?
Okay... + second rounder, + third rounder.

Cogliano would help out your team next season... And would be pretty much a shoe in for a top 6 role. I'd say good for around 40-50 points, like he achieved in a top 6 role on the Oilers.

Ducks want to have the freedom to pick one of Galchenyuk, Griggorenko, Forsberg or Murray.

With the loss of Schultz, Murray becomes a more desirable option... Especially if he's the clear cut BPA... But the Ducks need is for a centerman. So likely Griggs or Galy.

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06-17-2012, 11:01 PM
  #824
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Originally Posted by ChairmanCat View Post
Bluejackets fans...

Would you consider this.

2nd overall to Anaheim

For

6th overall and Andrew Cogliano.

Interested, or Would we have to add?
Move down 4 spots for a 3rd liner? No thanks. Add alot more

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06-17-2012, 11:02 PM
  #825
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Okay... + second rounder, + third rounder.

Cogliano would help out your team next season... And would be pretty much a shoe in for a top 6 role. I'd say good for around 40-50 points, like he achieved in a top 6 role on the Oilers.

Ducks want to have the freedom to pick one of Galchenyuk, Griggorenko, Forsberg or Murray.

With the loss of Schultz, Murray becomes a more desirable option... Especially if he's the clear cut BPA... But the Ducks need is for a centerman. So likely Griggs or Galy.

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