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PK Subban Vs Erik Johnson

View Poll Results: EJ or PK
EJ 116 45.31%
PK 140 54.69%
Voters: 256. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-14-2012, 10:40 AM
  #151
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I think a lot of people is really underrating EJ here.
I bet most of them don't even watch him play.

Voted for EJ.

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05-14-2012, 12:22 PM
  #152
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Erik Johnson.

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05-14-2012, 08:27 PM
  #153
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EJ by a little. See him live in our division. He is going to be good. Will just take sometime to put it all together.

But would not shock me if Subban ends up better.

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08-01-2012, 08:11 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
I don't have time to rebutt it, but i am impressed by this post. It was good of you to provide a rebuttal. I have arguments to counter it, but i probably won't write anything for a week (I'm going travelling). Kudos for making an actual argument.

P.S. I'm not out to get anybody or the Avs, i'm only posting my opinion. So talk of that is rather ridiculous, and is what i would call a rather weak straw man. (This is not directed at the poster i'm responding to)
Never heard back from you?

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08-01-2012, 10:42 PM
  #155
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Subban pretty easily. EJ is a bust.

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08-01-2012, 10:59 PM
  #156
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Subban pretty easily. EJ is a bust.

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08-01-2012, 11:31 PM
  #157
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Subban pretty easily. EJ is a bust.
The NHL is a league busts. Even the good players are busts. Crosby is okay.

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08-01-2012, 11:32 PM
  #158
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It's true..

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08-01-2012, 11:40 PM
  #159
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He isn't a bust. He sure as hell had no business being taken 1st overall though.

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08-01-2012, 11:46 PM
  #160
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It's true..
Not surprising that this is coming from you.

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08-01-2012, 11:56 PM
  #161
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Johnson isn't close to a bust lol.

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08-02-2012, 12:00 AM
  #162
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Only on HF is Eric Johnson a bust. A hockey discussion board with a bunch of people who have zero understanding of hockey. Who would have known?

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08-02-2012, 12:00 AM
  #163
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He isn't a bust. He sure as hell had no business being taken 1st overall though.
Yes. Darn him for making the Blues pick him #1

--------------------------

I'd take EJ. Just my homer opinion. I think both of them are very good and its arguable on both sides for who is better. But Subban isn't going to magically grow 4 more inches and 35 more pounds. EJ has a Shea Weber body type. If he ever figures out his game, he will be dominant. Subban will too, but to a lesser extent IMO. EJ just has the body and skills of a #1 d-man, if only he figures it out he will be very good!

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08-02-2012, 12:03 AM
  #164
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EJ is solid but Subban is dynamic. PK please!

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08-02-2012, 12:26 AM
  #165
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I'd take EJ. Just my homer opinion. I think both of them are very good and its arguable on both sides for who is better. But Subban isn't going to magically grow 4 more inches and 35 more pounds. EJ has a Shea Weber body type. If he ever figures out his game, he will be dominant. Subban will too, but to a lesser extent IMO. EJ just has the body and skills of a #1 d-man, if only he figures it out he will be very good!
Yet Subban was playing #1 minutes and had a decent point production on what some people call an off year. He only needs to be careful with his turnovers and he can become one of the most dominant D of the league. Not saying EJ will suck but Subban will be better and is better.

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08-02-2012, 12:54 AM
  #166
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Yet Subban was playing #1 minutes
On a lottery team. Kinda makes me wonder why you guys didn't do so well if he's able to carry you guys so much and gets these outrageous minutes.

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Not saying EJ will suck but Subban will be better and is better.
Oh? Do you have a crystal ball that told you?

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08-02-2012, 12:58 AM
  #167
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Only on HF is Eric Johnson a bust. A hockey discussion board with a bunch of people who have zero understanding of hockey. Who would have known?
You're right.

If there's one thing I've learned on HF, it's that all HF users have zero understanding of hockey, except for the Avalanche fans. They are the smartest and everyone else is dumb.

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08-02-2012, 01:01 AM
  #168
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You're right.

If there's one thing I've learned on HF, it's that all HF users have zero understanding of hockey, except for the Avalanche fans. They are the smartest and everyone else is dumb.
What a nice, useful post.

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08-02-2012, 01:09 AM
  #169
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You're right.

If there's one thing I've learned on HF, it's that all HF users have zero understanding of hockey, except for the Avalanche fans. They are the smartest and everyone else is dumb.
Thank you for the love. Your fan base is really smart to.

Johnson for me, even though Subban is close. Both will be great Defence.

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08-02-2012, 01:23 AM
  #170
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Subban but its really close

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08-02-2012, 02:21 AM
  #171
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Never heard back from you?
I can fix that.

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Hits:
Johnson-123
Subban-105
Hits are a very problamatic stat, as many arenas (especially the Canadian ones iirc) tend to be more conservative than other arenas when offering hits (scorer bias). There has been a clear pattern shown in stats for hits in terms of the arenas they happen in, with some (like Edmonton, whos players had gotten more hits on the road) being stingy and others, like perhaps Colorado (idk if it's true it's only an example)being more generous. I read something about it on copper and blue iirc, so it's possible for you to find it if you want. Also do you think a difference in 18 hits really matters, especially considering Subban is considered the harder hitter. Nobody talks about Erik Johnson highlight reel hits, Subban has laid a few of those out. Hits are only really relevant considering scorer bias when the difference is monumental. Subban also playes against much tougher competition, making running around more difficult.

In saying that Subban did play more games and more minutes, and i don't know what kind of bias there is so you could say Johnson is probably the more volumus hitter. But does that make him a more effective hitter? I don't think so myself. When talking about effectivness of hitting, how hard and who it's against are key questions. Subban was seemingly hitting much better players by virtue of his competition, and as i said earlier has a greater penchant for the big hit. Even if we concede physicality is a edge for Johnson, and i don't think anybody could call it a big edge, it doesn't come anywhere close to substantiating him as a better player.

And just to back up my claims about hits. Googling "Erik Johnson hits" brings up hits on these players: Troy Brodie, Dana Tyrell, Cam Atkinson, Patrik Berglund, Patrik Hornqvist, Jason Blake, Andrew Desjardins, Cal Clutterbuck, Darrol Powe, Patrick Kane, Jared Spurgeon. Only a couple of these hits were on youtube, the majority of them were just run of the mill highlights from nhl.com.

The only "big hits" were on Brodie, Tyrell, Hornqvist, Clutterbuck, Kane and they weren't as good as many Subban hits. They mostly just hits in the corner. Kane is the only first liner, and that hit happened in St.Louis. When Patrik Hornqvist or Berglund is the second biggest offensive threat that comes up, his hits aren't as effective in who they affect.

Googling "P.K. Subban hits" brings up. A Top 10 compilation video (from RDS which is basically french ESPN), Carcillo, Larsson, Brodziak, Lundqvist (lol), Jackman, Kunitz, Greening, Sbisa, Giroux, Kesler, a compliation video for 10-11 (Kostopolus, Stepan, Bishop (TC), Tyrell, Boulton, Vanek, Tootoo, Torres, Kaleta, Krejci, Marchand ). On google Subban has a far greater collection, and half of them are labled "big hit". In one compilation video Subban has more big hits than Johnson does on the internet (That Marchand hit is ridiculous). He also seems to be clearly hitting the better players for the opposing team.

I'd say the evidence on goolge points to Subban being the more effective hitter, even if he does throw less in terms of volume. Subban and his huge hits weigh far more on players minds then Johnsons 18 more hits on the year. His reputation is so much better that again a major hockey news source did a compilation video of them.

Find me something comparable to these hits from Johnson and i might concede, but i looked and couldn't find very many despite his career being twice as long.



Quote:
Give aways:
Johnson-44
Subban-88
Players who handle the puck give it away more. Gretzky used to lead the league in giveaways almost every year iirc. Stuff like Dump ins count as turnovers, so i'd say turnovers as a stat is more troubling when it's a defensive defenseman getting them. A guy like Petry for example who is #2 handles the puck alot because his partner Smid doesn't break the puck out of the zone alot with the pass and is the primary cycle breaker. Smid works the puck to Petry who moves it out. Another key reason for Petry being high up there is he played top line competition, believe it or not the Datsuyks and Thorntons of the world create more turnovers then 2nd and 3rd liners. The top 20 defenseman in terms of turnovers actually lists alot of good players, especially guys who play alot of minutes(like Subban). Again scorer bias is an issue as well in this stat.

Heres the top 20 with all those players clearly better than Johnson bolded:

John Carlson
Jeff Petry
P.K. Subban
Erik Karlsson
Dion Phaneuf
Brent Burns
Keith Yandle

Jake Gardiner
Kevin Bieksa
Zdeno Chara

Dennis Wideman
Dan Boyle
Filip Kuba
Drew Doughty
Carl Gunnarsson
Mark Streit
Hal Gill
Dan Hamhuis
Dan Girardi
Jay Bouwmeester


It seems this list is more of a who's who than anything else. The only players on the list Johnson could be strongly argued as being better than IMO is Gill and Kuba. Other guys like Wideman, Gunnarsson and the young Americans couled be argued too, but i think it's a tougher argument (not unreasonable though). Clearly, you couldn't use this stat to say Johnson is better than any of the above (as most are obviously superior to Johnson, #4 won the Norris ffs), so i don't think it's reasonable to do so in regards to Subban.

Quote:
Takeaways:
Johnson-35
Subban-26
This is another tough stat to evaluate, all real time stats are. Again who you are playing in terms of forwards makes a big difference. Datsuyk is tougher to take the puck from then Carcillo. Also scorer bias again come into the equation. And it's not like the difference is that large either. Johnson may be better at taking away the puck in board battles (another reason for the edge in hits), but who's to say he covers as well? This is too tough to garner much from, as the context for either player illustates a much different reality between the two and the stat is very incomplete as turnovers are often a team accomplishment and not the end all to be all of defensive prowess. There's a reason they aren't often brought up.

Quote:
Johnson had 93 less penalty minutes, despite only having one less fight.
Defenseman taking penatlies isn't the worst thing. I would be more curious to see what the nature of those calls are. Obstruction penalties like holding, hooking, tripping tend to be bad penalties as they indicate a mistake in coverage or laziness. However aggression calls like those relating to various bodychecking calls, slashing, crosschecking, and roughing tend to be PIMs actually valued by NHL GMs and coaches. Taking alot of agressive calls is part of playing a certain style, and that style is often coveted. GM's want their players, defenseman in particular, to be mean. So it could be a major minus on Subban but only if we know the breakdown of calls. As well i'd imagine Subban is more prone to coincidentals and misconducts than Johnson is given the nature of his game (not to call it a fact either). As always competition comes into this as again lines like Datsuyk's or Malkin's tend to draw more penatlies then Berglund's or Hornqvist's. Subban faces top drawer competiton and will invariably be more likely to take more obstruction related penalties. Penalities could be a problem for Subban, but again this is minor when evaluating the ability of a player in comparison to many other more relevant things.

Quote:
Johnson put up 2 less powerplay points, despite playing 8 less games, and averaging more than a minute less per game on the powerplay.
Both playes performed somewhat poorly on the PP. However Johnson played on the 9th ranked Colorado PP, and Subban played on the 28th ranked Montreal PP. I'm certain the strength of each unit contributed to Subbans worse production. In fact we have last year to prove this point as Subban had 4 more points on the 7th ranked unit in about 50 minutes less time then what he had this year. Johnson that year had 10 points in 20 less minutes than Subban got and on two comparable PP units (STL 10th, COL 11th ranked). Subban so far has the clear edge in terms of PP production.

Quote:
Subban:
Gp-77, G-14, A-24, Pts-38, rookie season (21 years old)
Gp-81, G-7, A-29, Pts-36, Sophomore season (22 years old)

Johnson:
Gp-69, G-5, A-28, Pts-33, rookie season (19 years old)
Injured whole year
Gp-77, G-10 , A-29 , Pts-39 , Sophomore season (21 years old)

So very similar rookie seasons, despite Johnson being 2 years younger in his. Then he had a better sophomore year, despite being one year younger in his season.
Why are we looking at this? Johnson has finished his 4th season in 5 years, we have more relevant data to consider. Subban this year took a big step up now taking on top level competition, something Johnson hasn't done (certainly not last year).

Quote:
Anyways, I think a lot of it is preference. Bigger and steadier, or faster and more dynamic. Both can throw big hits, and have produced similar offense. Can't go wrong with either. Subban isn't likely to produce as little as Johnson has the last two seasons, but I think going forward they're numbers will always be close. Subban more goals, Johnson more assists.
Again since i mentioned Quality of Competition so many times i'll post the link for the data, in it we can see Subban starts in his defensive zone far more often and plays against far tougher players. This makes offense harder to contribute at even strength. The remarkable thing, and this really highlights Subban's superiority, is the fact that he outshot the competiton in a relatively similar fashion to what Johnson did despite the much tougher role.

http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...harts_2012.pdf

So despite all Colorado fans always telling me offensive #1's are often used so exclusively in the offensive zone and in offensive situations, how come Subban played in the toughest defensive role other than Gorges. And how come Subban started the second most of all full year Canadians in the defensive zone (3rd counting Gill)? And his ZS were very comparable to defensive defensemen Gorges and Gill (Gill faced much weaker comp.)? Johnson by comparison started in the offensive zone more than any other Colorado defenseman besides Elliott (who was ridiculously sheltered and a rookie).

I applaude your attempt at a substantiative rebuttal, but i'd argue you used perhaps the least relevant stats in pro hockey. At the end of the day Subban plays more minutes in all disciplines, against tougher competiton and more often than not starts in the defensive zone. In doing this he scores more, outshoots in a comparable fashion, and provides clearly more big hits despite all the extra burden of his role. Also as i said earlier his hits are more effective due to the players he is hitting, as his outshooting due to the players he is helping hem in their own zone(best defense equals good offense). Subban is vastly the superior player, really it's by a ton too. All the evidence provided for Johnson are real time stats, fully known to be subject to scorer bias, and none of them are clear enough of a victory or even relevant enough to paint the picture of Johnson being the better player. Who you play against, how much you play, where you start, scoring chances, Corsi, and how much you produce are in contrast the most relevant stats and they show Subban to be clearly superior as well as not being subjective in nature.


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08-02-2012, 02:25 AM
  #172
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Biggest waste of time ever ^

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08-02-2012, 02:26 AM
  #173
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Subban.

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08-02-2012, 02:30 AM
  #174
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Biggest waste of time ever ^
Why because you can't read very well? It takes like 2 minutes top to read it. There's no way it's a bigger waste of time then this comment, whic provides and means nothing. He wanted a reply and i offered it, you don't have to discuss it. I'm willing to bet he will care to respond with his opinion, which is what i care about, oddly enough it's not so much your insignificant opinion (and it's not me deciding it's insignificant, it's you making it apparent). You're just sad because the post doesn't concur with your opinion. So instead of crying about it, just ignore it, and if i had to guess based on this comment it's probably over your head anyways. So please remember my opinions of Johnson, they aren't meant to hurt you. Here's my heartfelt apology for the "waste of time" that was my comment.




ohhhhhh
I didn't mean to hurt you
i'm sorry that i made you cry
I didn't mean to hurt you
I'm just a jealous guy (clearly)


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08-02-2012, 02:35 AM
  #175
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I can fix that.



Hits are a very problamatic stat, as many arenas (especially the Canadian ones iirc) tend to be more conservative than other arenas when offering hits (scorer bias). There has been a clear pattern shown in stats for hits in terms of the arenas they happen in, with some (like Edmonton, whos players had gotten more hits on the road) being stingy and others, like perhaps Colorado (idk if it's true it's only an example)being more generous. I read something about it on copper and blue iirc, so it's possible for you to find it if you want. Also do you think a difference in 18 hits really matters, especially considering Subban is considered the harder hitter. Nobody talks about Erik Johnson highlight reel hits, Subban has laid a few of those out. Hits are only really relevant considering scorer bias when the difference is monumental. Subban also playes against much tougher competition, making running around more difficult.

In saying that Subban did play more games and more minutes, and i don't know what kind of bias there is so you could say Johnson is probably the more volumus hitter. But does that make him a more effective hitter? I don't think so myself. When talking about effectivness of hitting, how hard and who it's against are key questions. Subban was seemingly hitting much better players by virtue of his competition, and as i said earlier has a greater penchant for the big hit. Even if we concede physicality is a edge for Johnson, and i don't think anybody could call it a big edge, it doesn't come anywhere close to substantiating him as a better player.

And just to back up my claims about hits. Googling "Erik Johnson hits" brings up hits on these players: Troy Brodie, Dana Tyrell, Cam Atkinson, Patrik Berglund, Patrik Hornqvist, Jason Blake, Andrew Desjardins, Cal Clutterbuck, Darrol Powe, Patrick Kane, Jared Spurgeon. Only a couple of these hits were on youtube, the majority of them were just run of the mill highlights from nhl.com.

The only "big hits" were on Brodie, Tyrell, Hornqvist, Clutterbuck, Kane and they weren't as good as many Subban hits. They mostly just hits in the corner. Kane is the only first liner, and that hit happened in St.Louis. When Patrik Hornqvist or Berglund is the second biggest offensive threat that comes up, his hits aren't as effective in who they affect.

Googling "P.K. Subban hits" brings up. A Top 10 compilation video (from RDS which is basically french ESPN), Carcillo, Larsson, Brodziak, Lundqvist (lol), Jackman, Kunitz, Greening, Sbisa, Giroux, Kesler, a compliation video for 10-11 (Kostopolus, Stepan, Bishop (TC), Tyrell, Boulton, Vanek, Tootoo, Torres, Kaleta, Krejci, Marchand ). On google Subban has a far greater collection, and half of them are labled "big hit". In one compilation video Subban has more big hits than Johnson does on the internet (That Marchand hit is ridiculous). He also seems to be clearly hitting the better players for the opposing team.

I'd say the evidence on goolge points to Subban being the more effective hitter, even if he does throw less in terms of volume. Subban and his huge hits weigh far more on players minds then Johnsons 18 more hits on the year. His reputation is so much better that again a major hockey news source did a compilation video of them.

Find me something comparable to these hits from Johnson and i might concede, but i looked and couldn't find very many despite his career being twice as long.





Players who handle the puck give it away more. Gretzky used to lead the league in giveaways almost every year iirc. Stuff like Dump ins count as turnovers, so i'd say turnovers as a stat is more troubling when it's a defensive defenseman getting them. A guy like Petry for example who is #2 handles the puck alot because his partner Smid doesn't break the puck out of the zone alot with the pass and is the primary cycle breaker. Smid works the puck to Petry who moves it out. Another key reason for Petry being high up there is he played top line competition, believe it or not the Datsuyks and Thorntons of the world create more turnovers then 2nd and 3rd liners. The top 20 defenseman in terms of turnovers actually lists alot of good players, especially guys who play alot of minutes(like Subban). Again scorer bias is an issue as well in this stat.

Heres the top 20 with all those players clearly better than Johnson bolded:

John Carlson
Jeff Petry
P.K. Subban
Erik Karlsson
Dion Phaneuf
Brent Burns
Keith Yandle

Jake Gardiner
Kevin Bieksa
Zdeno Chara

Dennis Wideman
Dan Boyle
Filip Kuba
Drew Doughty
Carl Gunnarsson
Mark Streit
Hal Gill
Dan Hamhuis
Dan Girardi
Jay Bouwmeester


It seems this list is more of a who's who than anything else. The only players on the list Johnson could be strongly argued as being better than IMO is Gill and Kuba. Other guys like Wideman, Gunnarsson and the young Americans couled be argued too, but i think it's a tougher argument (not unreasonable though). Clearly, you couldn't use this stat to say Johnson is better than any of the above (as most are obviously superior to Johnson, #4 won the Norris ffs), so i don't think it's reasonable to do so in regards to Subban.



This is another tough stat to evaluate, all real time stats are. Again who you are playing in terms of forwards makes a big difference. Datsuyk is tougher to take the puck from then Carcillo. Also scorer bias again come into the equation. And it's not like the difference is that large either. Johnson may be better at taking away the puck in board battles (another reason for the edge in hits), but who's to say he covers as well? This is too tough to garner much from, as the context for either player illustates a much different reality between the two and the stat is very incomplete as turnovers are often a team accomplishment and not the end all to be all of defensive prowess. There's a reason they aren't often brought up.



Defenseman taking penatlies isn't the worst thing. I would be more curious to see what the nature of those calls are. Obstruction penalties like holding, hooking, tripping tend to be bad penalties as they indicate a mistake in coverage or laziness. However aggression calls like those relating to various bodychecking calls, slashing, crosschecking, and roughing tend to be PIMs actually valued by NHL GMs and coaches. Taking alot of agressive calls is part of playing a certain style, and that style is often coveted. GM's want their players, defenseman in particular, to be mean. So it could be a major minus on Subban but only if we know the breakdown of calls. As well i'd imagine Subban is more prone to coincidentals and misconducts than Johnson is given the nature of his game (not to call it a fact either). As always competition comes into this as again lines like Datsuyk's or Malkin's tend to draw more penatlies then Berglund's or Hornqvist's. Subban faces top drawer competiton and will invariably be more likely to take more obstruction related penalties. Penalities could be a problem for Subban, but again this is minor when evaluating the ability of a player in comparison to many other more relevant things.



Both playes performed somewhat poorly on the PP. However Johnson played on the 9th ranked Colorado PP, and Subban played on the 28th ranked Montreal PP. I'm certain the strength of each unit contributed to Subbans worse production. In fact we have last year to prove this point as Subban had 4 more points on the 7th ranked unit in about 50 minutes less time then what he had this year. Johnson that year had 10 points in 20 less minutes than Subban got and on two comparable PP units (STL 10th, COL 11th ranked). Subban so far has the clear edge in terms of PP production.



Why are we looking at this? Johnson has finished his 4th season in 5 years, we have more relevant data to consider. Subban this year took a big step up now taking on top level competition, something Johnson hasn't done (certainly not last year).



Again since i mentioned Quality of Competition so many times i'll post the link for the data, in it we can see Subban starts in his defensive zone far more often and plays against far tougher players. This makes offense harder to contribute at even strength. The remarkable thing, and this really highlights Subban's superiority, is the fact that he outshot the competiton in a relatively similar fashion to what Johnson did despite the much tougher role.

http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...harts_2012.pdf

So despite all Colorado fans always telling me offensive #1's are often used so exclusively in the offensive zone and in offensive situations, how come Subban played in the toughest defensive role other than Gorges. And how come Subban started the second most of all full year Canadians in the defensive zone (3rd counting Gill)? And his ZS were very comparable to defensive defensemen Gorges and Gill (Gill faced much weaker comp.)? Johnson by comparison started in the offensive zone more than any other Colorado defenseman besides Elliott (who was ridiculously sheltered and a rookie).

I applaude your attempt at a substantiative rebuttal, but i'd argue you used perhaps the least relevant stats in pro hockey. At the end of the day Subban plays more minutes in all disciplines, against tougher competiton and more often than not starts in the defensive zone. In doing this he scores more, outshoots in a comparable fashion, and provides clearly more big hits despite all the extra burden of his role. Also as i said earlier his hits are more effective due to the players he is hitting, as his outshooting due to the players he is helping hem in their own zone(best defense equals good offense). Subban is vastly the superior player, really it's by a ton too. All the evidence provided for Johnson are real time stats, fully known to be subject to scorer bias, and none of them are clear enough of a victory or even relevant enough to paint the picture of Johnson being the better player. Who you play against, how much you play, where you start, scoring chances, Corsi, and how much you produce are in contrast the most relevant stats and they show Subban to be clearly superior as well as not being subjective in nature.



Man, u sure are obsessed with EJ.

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