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The Official Jordan Staal Thread, Part III

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Old
05-11-2012, 12:39 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by Ogrezilla View Post
How much do you think that is? I still think we could spend Staal's market value on something that would help us more. Unless I am overestimating his market value.
I don't think Staal is worth his market value, which is around 6-6.5 million. His real value is somewhere around 5, which is where a lot of his comparables sit also.

I just can't see him getting 7. That's lunacy, and he will probably never live up to that number.

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05-11-2012, 12:42 PM
  #152
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Over under and Staal trade threads set at.......17. I will take the over.
Not if I can help it. And the same thread closed after 1000 posts and "re-initiated" doesn't count.

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05-11-2012, 12:52 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
I don't think Staal is worth his market value, which is around 6-6.5 million. His real value is somewhere around 5, which is where a lot of his comparables sit also.

I just can't see him getting 7. That's lunacy, and he will probably never live up to that number.
This is exactly what he should be around.

Before the playoffs began, a lot of posters on the Pens board were saying 4.5-5M. Then after his playoffs, that changed to 5.5-6M (at a hometown discount)

On the Pens, he is a 5M dollar player. If he hits FA, that will skyrocket.

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05-11-2012, 12:58 PM
  #154
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I can't find where I posted it but considering that Neal is a 40/40 guy and just got $5M, and Staal hasn't scored 30G or 30A in his career (let alone in the same season), pretty much indicates he is not worth $6M. And before we throw out the "Yah but he played with TK" argument, I doubt there's anyone in here who would suggest playing on Malkin's wing, that Staal would score 81 points (including 40G) like Neal did this year.

Staal is valuable, he is still improving and he has yet to reach his apex, but he's not yet worth $6M a year. It boils down to numbers in the NHL and the numbers aren't there yet.

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05-11-2012, 12:59 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
I don't think Staal is worth his market value, which is around 6-6.5 million. His real value is somewhere around 5, which is where a lot of his comparables sit also.

I just can't see him getting 7. That's lunacy, and he will probably never live up to that number.
I think he could end up being just as good offensively as Eric if given the the same role. 7 mil in that scenario is fair value. Maybe even a slight bargain if the cap goes up next year and stays there.

But as of now, yes, you'd have to be quite desperate to pay him that kind of money.

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05-11-2012, 01:01 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
I can't find where I posted it but considering that Neal is a 40/40 guy and just got $5M, and Staal hasn't scored 30G or 30A in his career (let alone in the same season), pretty much indicates he is not worth $6M. And before we throw out the "Yah but he played with TK" argument, I doubt there's anyone in here who would suggest playing on Malkin's wing, that Staal would score 81 points (including 40G) like Neal did this year.

Staal is valuable, he is still improving and he has yet to reach his apex, but he's not yet worth $6M a year. It boils down to numbers in the NHL and the numbers aren't there yet.
We're talking about his market value. What he brings aside from points is what teams will overpay for. That's why there's such a disparity in contract claims.

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05-11-2012, 01:04 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Mr Jiggyfly View Post
Stewart can fly and carry the puck himself. He is only going to be 25 in Oct
25 is not that young in the "he needs time to mature" sense. He definitely has some type of work ethic or attitude problem, as Colorado is very vague on why they traded him and Hitchcock flat out said he got reduced minutes (and presumably benched this playoff for the same reason) because of "effort" issues. Something to the effect of "the effort has to be there from every player", which is a nice way of saying "he doesn't work as hard as everyone else".

Stewart to me, looks like the prototypical guy who has every talent and tool and at some point in his development decided that was enough to get him through. He's already talking about "important summers" (probably feeling a bit of fear). To me I'd much rather have a guy who you don't have to ask anything of in terms of effort. Would I trade Martin for Stewart? Probably because they both have their issues, but I'd rather trade Martin for someone like Kulemin or a Kunitz type who you know is going to give you 100% at all times, play hurt, etc.



RE STAAL VALUE

Just because some team is willing to overpay for him doesn't mean his value to Shero is $6M+. Three words for that theory: James, Neal, and Stats. And one number: $5M.

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05-11-2012, 01:14 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by JTG View Post
I don't think Staal is worth his market value, which is around 6-6.5 million. His real value is somewhere around 5, which is where a lot of his comparables sit also.

I just can't see him getting 7. That's lunacy, and he will probably never live up to that number.
Two words: Mikko Koivu.

Koivu has a career high 71 points two years ago. He has fewer goals in his best season than Staal had in 62 games this season. And, once again, Staal, in a 2C role with Dupuis and Sullivan, was running at a 40g, 30a pace. Then, add Staal's playoff performance this year, his playoff experience overall. And, top it off with the fact that Staal will be five years young when his third contract starts and the general consensus that Staal is still on an upward trajectory in terms of his development.

Minnesota gave Koivu 6.7M per for his third contract going into this year. And, you're telling me (a) that Staal's agent won't set that as the low bar if he hits free agency and (b) that he won't get that, not just from one crazy team, but instead from a couple of teams?

I agree with you about what Staal's value should be and is to the Penguins. But, I think his market value-- what he'd get as a free agent-- is a minimum 750K higher than the range you've set.

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05-11-2012, 01:15 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
25 is not that young in the "he needs time to mature" sense. He definitely has some type of work ethic or attitude problem, as Colorado is very vague on why they traded him and Hitchcock flat out said he got reduced minutes (and presumably benched this playoff for the same reason) because of "effort" issues. Something to the effect of "the effort has to be there from every player", which is a nice way of saying "he doesn't work as hard as everyone else".

Stewart to me, looks like the prototypical guy who has every talent and tool and at some point in his development decided that was enough to get him through. He's already talking about "important summers" (probably feeling a bit of fear). To me I'd much rather have a guy who you don't have to ask anything of in terms of effort. Would I trade Martin for Stewart? Probably because they both have their issues, but I'd rather trade Martin for someone like Kulemin or a Kunitz type who you know is going to give you 100% at all times, play hurt, etc.


RE STAAL VALUE

Just because some team is willing to overpay for him doesn't mean his value to Shero is $6M+. Three words for that theory: James, Neal, and Stats. And one number: $5M.
25 is young for big forwards. That's just the way it is in the NHL. Ryan Clowe and Ryan Malone say hi. And neither of them have the goal scoring ability that Stewart possesses.

As for Staal's value. Grabo got 5.5. Staal is a better hockey player than him and is viewed as such with his track record in the postseason, size, defensive game and offensive potential getting more talent around him and a bigger role.

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05-11-2012, 01:16 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Two words: Mikko Koivu.

Koivu has a career high 71 points two years ago. He has fewer goals in his best season than Staal had in 62 games this season. And, once again, Staal, in a 2C role with Dupuis and Sullivan, was running at a 40g, 30a pace. Then, add Staal's playoff performance this year, his playoff experience overall. And, top it off with the fact that Staal will be five years young when his third contract starts and the general consensus that Staal is still on an upward trajectory in terms of his development.

Minnesota gave Koivu 6.7M per for his third contract going into this year. And, you're telling me (a) that Staal's agent won't set that as the low bar if he hits free agency and (b) that he won't get that?
He definitely could get that if he hits Free Agency. He should never get that in Pittsburgh tho

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05-11-2012, 01:17 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Chancellor Vitale View Post
25 is not that young in the "he needs time to mature" sense. He definitely has some type of work ethic or attitude problem, as Colorado is very vague on why they traded him and Hitchcock flat out said he got reduced minutes (and presumably benched this playoff for the same reason) because of "effort" issues. Something to the effect of "the effort has to be there from every player", which is a nice way of saying "he doesn't work as hard as everyone else".

Stewart to me, looks like the prototypical guy who has every talent and tool and at some point in his development decided that was enough to get him through. He's already talking about "important summers" (probably feeling a bit of fear). To me I'd much rather have a guy who you don't have to ask anything of in terms of effort. Would I trade Martin for Stewart? Probably because they both have their issues, but I'd rather trade Martin for someone like Kulemin or a Kunitz type who you know is going to give you 100% at all times, play hurt, etc.



RE STAAL VALUE

Just because some team is willing to overpay for him doesn't mean his value to Shero is $6M+. Three words for that theory: James, Neal, and Stats. And one number: $5M.
If Stewart didn't have the warts you are talking about, he wouldn't be available at all, with the kind of talent he has.

Not every player matures at the same time. Look at Kovy in NJ.

Not every player has the work ethic of Parise or Crosby either, but I would think getting traded a third time in as many years plus getting to play with Crosby would light a fire under his ass.

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05-11-2012, 01:22 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by mpp9 View Post
I think he could end up being just as good offensively as Eric if given the the same role. 7 mil in that scenario is fair value. Maybe even a slight bargain if the cap goes up next year and stays there.

But as of now, yes, you'd have to be quite desperate to pay him that kind of money.
That's the thing. Teams are going to say he's 24, has a plethora of playoff experience, including an impact Stanley Cup finals experience. Thrust into a 2C role with inferior linemates, he was damn near a PPG pace with next to no meaningful PP time. And, in the playoffs, he was the Pens best center, not Sid or Geno (easier matchups, sure . . . also the least offensively competent linemates). Plus, he's getting better, and everyone knows it.

This isn't the Neal negotiation. Neal was going to be a RFA. As an unrestricted free agent, he could have gotten 6M, but he was a RFA and 5M was a fair offer based on what Bobby Ryan makes.

Staal will be a UFA approaching perhaps the best contract opportunity of his life. He's got EVERYTHING to gain by not signing with the Pens. Low 6M range . . . sure, that's one thing, taking 15% less than the max he could like Sid, Geno, and Orpik did.

BUT, why in the world would he sign with the Pens for anything less? What incentive does he have not to say 'let's let this play out and see where things are on July 1, 2013'? All that PP time? Those great linemates? Heck, you can't even cite the Pens unique cup chances, not with the way this team has been managed and coached the last three years.

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05-11-2012, 01:24 PM
  #163
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He definitely could get that if he hits Free Agency. He should never get that in Pittsburgh tho
No, I wouldn't give Staal that. That's an entirely different question. As I've written, push comes to shove, the offers blow, then I see Shero giving him 6M just to make sure he doesn't lose him for next to nothing. He'll deal with the fallout afterwards.

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05-11-2012, 01:25 PM
  #164
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If Stewart didn't have the warts you are talking about, he wouldn't be available at all, with the kind of talent he has.

Not every player matures at the same time. Look at Kovy in NJ.

Not every player has the work ethic of Parise or Crosby either, but I would think getting traded a third time in as many years plus getting to play with Crosby would light a fire under his ass.
Yep. That about sums it up. No reason why Shero shouldn't go after him. Especially with the way the trade deadline went. I'd rather invest in a high risk high reward RFA, than waste assets on the ludicrous asking prices for rentals at the trade deadline.

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05-11-2012, 01:27 PM
  #165
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If Stewart didn't have the warts you are talking about, he wouldn't be available at all, with the kind of talent he has.

Not every player matures at the same time. Look at Kovy in NJ.

Not every player has the work ethic of Parise or Crosby either, but I would think getting traded a third time in as many years plus getting to play with Crosby would light a fire under his ass.
Kunitz-Crosby-Stewart
Kulemin-Malkin-Neal

Bylsma uses Crosby and Malkin like Daryl Sutter uses Richards and Kopitar.

Me thinks that would help diffuse a lot of the more apoplectic concerns about how we ever could replace Staal.

The answer is (a) having two lines with two good wingers centered by arguably the best center in hockey > a diluted 3C model in terms of the matchup advantages and (b) Sid and Geno can make up for the loss of what Staal adds defensively if they've got a coach who will recognize that they can do it (as we've argued forever, taking Geno off the PK was a dumb thing by Bylsma, because so much of Geno's game traditionally flowed from that type of responsibility).

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05-11-2012, 01:28 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by mpp9 View Post
Yep. That about sums it up. No reason why Shero shouldn't go after him. Especially with the way the trade deadline went. I'd rather invest in a high risk high reward RFA, than waste assets on the ludicrous asking prices for rentals at the trade deadline.
Or buy another 2M retread for the whole season . . .

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05-11-2012, 01:42 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by KIRK View Post
Kunitz-Crosby-Stewart
Kulemin-Malkin-Neal

Bylsma uses Crosby and Malkin like Daryl Sutter uses Richards and Kopitar.

Me thinks that would help diffuse a lot of the more apoplectic concerns about how we ever could replace Staal.

The answer is (a) having two lines with two good wingers centered by arguably the best center in hockey > a diluted 3C model in terms of the matchup advantages and (b) Sid and Geno can make up for the loss of what Staal adds defensively if they've got a coach who will recognize that they can do it (as we've argued forever, taking Geno off the PK was a dumb thing by Bylsma, because so much of Geno's game traditionally flowed from that type of responsibility).
If we had to trade Staal and that ended up being the top 6, I'd be a happy man. Plus you add at least 1 top prospect and another roster player (or 2 prospects). We COULD end up being a better team now and would have better depth in the organization.

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05-11-2012, 01:47 PM
  #168
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If we had to trade Staal and that ended up being the top 6, I'd be a happy man. Plus you add at least 1 top prospect and another roster player (or 2 prospects). We COULD end up being a better team now and would have better depth in the organization.
Yes, which is why I keep saying Shero will listen to offers for Staal.

You'd have to move Martin in another deal, of course, but it's doable.

Alternate move, if you can't get Stewart, is TK and Martin for Malone. Contract sucks, but his NTC will have expired and you'd have a lot of kids ready to step into his place in a year or two. Then, you'd put Kunitz and Neal with Sid and Malone and Kulemin with Geno. Not my first choice, but this works too. Plus, I'd sure as **** think Malone-Malkin-Kulemin would spend quite a few extended shifts in the offensive zone.

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05-11-2012, 01:50 PM
  #169
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Tim Brent, Tuomo Ruutu, and a 3rd!

I don't think the two sides make good partners for various reasons. But seeing them try to negotiate has been humorous.
Hey, Ruutu isn't even on the table either, we are working with the assumption that he has the same quasi-NMC promise from Rutherford as Gleason now.

IDK, assuming Jordan did say, that were the Pens to trade him, he'd prefer Carolina, and Pens were to entertain the idea just for the Canes then to come not even close to an offer that could get it done, how much of a headstart do they really expect the team that valued him as "Jokinen and 2nd, LOL" to get from him on the UFA market?

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05-11-2012, 02:01 PM
  #170
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I can't find where I posted it but considering that Neal is a 40/40 guy and just got $5M, and Staal hasn't scored 30G or 30A in his career (let alone in the same season), pretty much indicates he is not worth $6M. And before we throw out the "Yah but he played with TK" argument, I doubt there's anyone in here who would suggest playing on Malkin's wing, that Staal would score 81 points (including 40G) like Neal did this year.

Staal is valuable, he is still improving and he has yet to reach his apex, but he's not yet worth $6M a year. It boils down to numbers in the NHL and the numbers aren't there yet.
Staal is a UFA, Neal wasn't. That's a gigantic difference. If Neal had held out for more money the Pens could have said fine, we'll send you to Columbus.

Staal holds all the cards. He can set his price. Is he worth 6 million? Nope, but that might be what Shero has to pay to keep him.

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05-11-2012, 02:04 PM
  #171
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One name you've mentioned in the past that I think is totally gettable is Evander Kane. Thats a great fit for the Pens and someone that we should be talking more about.

Another is Frolik. He oozes skill. He's a little soft but he is active and can play a Voracek style game of puck get. To be honest I don't even think he's that soft. He gets involved but is still way to skill. Thats an easy thing to build up and the Pens can make him a star.
Kane is nasty... I doubt the Jets move him for anything but a massive overpayment. Him and Crosby on the same line would be unreal... after Parise nobody is a better winger in my eyes than Kane.

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Yeah, I don't think Staal gets close to UFA. We will either re-sign him or some other team will trade for him and throw a bigger role and truckload of cash his way to keep him from UFA. Players like Staal just don't hit UFA that often.
Cane fans forget that Marc plays for the Rags... a team that pisses money away and they ALWAYS make a play for the big name UFAs. I wonder if they would make a play for Jordan... *cough*

Good luck outbidding James Dolan. Cane fans will be in for a rude awakening if they think Jordan is turning down the silly money Dolan will throw at him, and yep, he still gets to play with one of his brothers, so they don't even hold that trump card.

Ya, good luck with that.

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05-11-2012, 02:09 PM
  #172
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Something's gotta be done the next CBA. I know Staal's been in the League for a while now, but being UFA at 23 years old in any sport is kinda{MOD EDIT}


Last edited by Homeland Security: 05-11-2012 at 07:11 PM. Reason: edit
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05-11-2012, 02:11 PM
  #173
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Something's gotta be done the next CBA. I know Staal's been in the League for a while now, but being UFA at 23 years old in any sport is kinda {MOD EDIT}
why is that? You dont think a player deserves to be a UFA after 7 full seasons?


Last edited by Homeland Security: 05-11-2012 at 07:11 PM. Reason: edit
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05-11-2012, 02:11 PM
  #174
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Something's gotta be done the next CBA. I know Staal's been in the League for a while now, but being UFA at 23 years old in any sport is kinda {MOD EDIT}
It'd certainly help us out if we were trading his RFA rights. More teams could afford him and we wouldn't be under the gun to move him by the end of summer.

But playing 7 seasons in the league is more than enough time imo to be in UFA status.


Last edited by Homeland Security: 05-11-2012 at 07:11 PM.
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05-11-2012, 02:13 PM
  #175
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Something's gotta be done the next CBA. I know Staal's been in the League for a while now, but being UFA at 23 years old in any sport is kinda {MOD EDIT}
Well it's 7 full seasons or 28. It has to be our you would be punishing players who were good enough to get into the league earlier than projected.


Last edited by Homeland Security: 05-11-2012 at 07:11 PM. Reason: edit
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