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The State of the Defense

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Old
05-14-2012, 09:13 AM
  #276
joestevens29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Stauffer View Post
Gentlemen,

Pretty sure I said that IMO right now Ryan Murray would be the Oilers 4th best defenceman behind Whitney, Smid and Petry.
Murray controlled games for Everett who only won 19% of their games when he was out this year.
I see Murray as at the best a very good #2, and everything scouts from multiple organizations tell me suggest he can play in the NHL next season.
I also think and someone of you would probably agree that there may be only 12-15 true #1 defenceman in the NHL.
The Ryan Whitney from October through December of 2010 was a 1/2, the Ryan Whitney this past season was a second-pairing guy.
Petry made huge steps this year and has the upside to be a #2, but is a lock to be a long term top 4 D-Man.
Smid is a solid second-pairing guy.
Schultz vastly improved the Oilers compete level.
But as a left hand shot he is better suited as a third-pairing LD, then a second-pairing RD.
Water sought it's level in the case of Potter.
As for the prospects.
Klefbom should be a top 4 D-man, but there is nothing to suggest in his offensive numbers in Sweden that he can become a top 2D. David Rundblad put up 50 points in Sweden a year ago and couldn't find full-time work with 2 different NHL organizations this season.
Gernat and Marincin are wild-cards.
If the Oilers are lucky they both play.
Frankly I am a little dissapointed OKC has two D that are ECHL call-ups playing ahead of Marincin right now with Teubert out of he line-up.
Gernat has exceptional offensive instincts, if he keeps developing and works on his footwork he Oilers may have found a "Kieth Yandle-type", later round offensive sleeper.
Musil reminds me a lot of Smid.
I am also not sure if Teubert will ever be better then a #6.

I do think organizations have to capitalize on the lack of patience of others.
A year ago u might have been able to get Del Zotto out of the NYR.
A year ago Leafs fans thought Schenn was the second coming.
What a difference a year makes.
Now Del Zotto is a point-producing stud with the Rangers.
Schenn despite picking up one fewer ES point then Phaneuf is now thought of as too slow, too heavy...yada...yada...yada in Toronto.



I definitely am of the belief that you draft Best Player Available and that the draft history suggest you should lean to forwards in the top three spots over the last decade.

Someone also suggested I was calling for Seguin and Landeskog in that last two drafts; that is total crap!
From the time Hall picked himself up off the ice in Brandon after getting destroyed by Hamonic; he was my guy. He's a winner.
And after seeing RNH 11 times last season with the Rebels, I am pretty sure I was leading the charge for the "Nuge".

Take care,

Stauffer
Gentleman? Well I wouldn't go that far.

Honestly though thanks for the update/defense. I agree with your point about patience, one doesn't have to look much further than our own d-man in Petry/Smid or go further back to Greene who took the next step after he left Edmonton.

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05-14-2012, 09:50 AM
  #277
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It seems the main arguments Murray supporters use are "it makes us a better team next year" and "we need a balanced lineup to win a cup". In terms of the first point, take note that Yakupov makes us a better team next year than Murray. Murray will probably be no more than a #4 defenseman next year, while Yakupov will likely score 20-30 goals on a team dying for secondary scoring. Secondly, while you need a balanced lineup to contend, you don't need a #1 defenseman. Alex Edler didn't become a real #1 until last year, but Vancouver was a contender year after year. If you can get 6 top 4 defensemen, our team would be just as good defensively as a team with 1,2,3,4,5,6. Besides, I highly doubt Murray will be anything more than a #3 defenseman due to his lack of offensive hunger.

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05-14-2012, 04:51 PM
  #278
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
If Whitney when healthy is a #2 why can't Petry become at least that good? Also #4 for Klefbom as his upside at this point in his career is selling the kid short. And Murray would NOT be better than Smid, Petry, or Schultz right now, nor would he be better than Whitney at 75%. Meanwhile Nail could be our 2nd best goalscorer in short order. You don't pass up on that because a guy MIGHT be our 3rd best D on a team that has a notoriously weak defense.
Smid and Petry together faced the others 1st line. and had 2.25GA/60 with goalies making .913 SV%

there were 27 pair of dmen that faced 1st line comp.
the league average for:
GA/60 is 2.45
Sv% is .920%
1.--Coliacovo & Jackmann---1.70GA/60---.935 SV%
2.--Garrison & Campbell---1.84GA/60---.935 SV%
3.--Lidstrom & White---2.00GA/60---.926 SV%
4.--Mcdonnagh & Girardi---2.00GA/60---.928SV%
5.--Doughty & Scuderi---2.03GA/60---.924SV%
6.--Weber & Suter---2.09GA/60---.929SV%
7.--Reghr & Sekera---2.10GA/60---.926SV%
8.--Vlasic 7 Boyle---2.15GA/60---.923SV%
9.--Klesla & OEL---2.16GA/60---.930SV%
10.--Gorges & Subban---2.22GA/60---.920SV%
11.--Smid & Petry---2.25GA/60---.913SV%
12.--Souray & Robidas---2.28GA/60---.922SV%
13.--Chara & Boychuk---2.29GA/60---.918SV%
14.--Gleason & Allen---2.30GA/60---.927SV%
15.--Bieksa & Hamhuis---2.36GA/60---.920Sv%
16.--timmonen & coburn---2.46GA/60---.912SV%
17.--Hamonic & Mcdonald---2.46GA/60---.914SV%
18.--Kulikov & Weaver---2.46GA/60---.922SV%
19.--Kuba & Karlsson---2.50GA/60---.920SV%
20.--Bouwmeester & Butler---2.52GA/60---.923SV%
21.--Alzner & Carlson---2.55GA/60---.914SV%
22.--Fayne & Greene---2.56GA/60---.900SV%
23.--Gunnerson & Phanuef---2.64GA/60---.909SV%

The players in italics should expect a decline in stopping goals.
The bold should expect an increase in preventing goals relative to league average goaltending.

Petry was part of the 11th best defensive pair in the league. they get league average goaltending and they are top 5.
Look at the results and facts.

That was only half a years play.
Both are in the 25-26 age range were Dmen mature.
Top 5 GA with Dubnyk playing .920 for the next 6 -8 years would be Sweet.

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05-14-2012, 05:00 PM
  #279
Joe Hallenback
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You would think Bob Stauffer would know that Teubert is injured and Marancin isn't on the clear day list for OKC

Guess not

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05-14-2012, 05:03 PM
  #280
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
You would think Bob Stauffer would know that Teubert is injured and Marancin isn't on the clear day list for OKC

Guess not
I could be wrong here, but I believe if there is injuries you can be added to the roster and play. Case in point, Hamilton will be playing in place of one of Green/Tremblay for games 1 and 2 of the upcoming series even though he was not on the clear day list.

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05-14-2012, 05:29 PM
  #281
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
You would think Bob Stauffer would know that Teubert is injured and Marancin isn't on the clear day list for OKC

Guess not
You would think that a guy trying to be all smug would know that Marincin is allowed to play if it's for an injury replacement. Much like Curtis Hamilton is expected to play next round.

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05-14-2012, 05:40 PM
  #282
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Originally Posted by t0psh3lfclu7ch View Post
does adding yakupov really mean that we will need to move gagner due to size reasons?
yakupovs size coupled with his playing style could make him more injury prone than hall, and rnh put together.
I'd like to see evidence to support the statement that Yakupov's size puts him at risk of injury. No question that he likes contact and of course that could put him a somewhat greater risk. But even then I don't think it is much of an issue.


Last edited by Fourier: 05-14-2012 at 06:27 PM.
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05-14-2012, 05:54 PM
  #283
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
I'd like to see evidence to support the statement that Ykupov's size puts him at risk of injury. No question that he likes contact and of course that could put him a somewhat greater risk. But even then I don't think it is much of an issue.
Yakupov is much stronger on his skates than RNH or Hall.

You can tell he works out a lot, he's built like a rock already.

Ryan Murray missed basically the same amount of games as Yakupov this year due to injury. Galchenyuk missed the entire year. Grigorenko had ankle issues.

Pretty much all the top prospects were hurt at some point this year.

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Old
05-14-2012, 10:32 PM
  #284
Bob Stauffer
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Re: Joe Hallenback

Joe,

I tweeted out on April 30th tha Teubert was out a while after undergoing facial surgery, so I am pretty sure I was aware that he is out.
Also according to Todd Nelson who I spoke to today on "Oilers Now" and tonight again to confirm, Marincin is eligible to play.
Thx.

Bob

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05-14-2012, 10:40 PM
  #285
Bryanbryoil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Smid and Petry together faced the others 1st line. and had 2.25GA/60 with goalies making .913 SV%

there were 27 pair of dmen that faced 1st line comp.
the league average for:
GA/60 is 2.45
Sv% is .920%
1.--Coliacovo & Jackmann---1.70GA/60---.935 SV%
2.--Garrison & Campbell---1.84GA/60---.935 SV%
3.--Lidstrom & White---2.00GA/60---.926 SV%
4.--Mcdonnagh & Girardi---2.00GA/60---.928SV%
5.--Doughty & Scuderi---2.03GA/60---.924SV%
6.--Weber & Suter---2.09GA/60---.929SV%
7.--Reghr & Sekera---2.10GA/60---.926SV%
8.--Vlasic 7 Boyle---2.15GA/60---.923SV%
9.--Klesla & OEL---2.16GA/60---.930SV%
10.--Gorges & Subban---2.22GA/60---.920SV%
11.--Smid & Petry---2.25GA/60---.913SV%
12.--Souray & Robidas---2.28GA/60---.922SV%
13.--Chara & Boychuk---2.29GA/60---.918SV%
14.--Gleason & Allen---2.30GA/60---.927SV%
15.--Bieksa & Hamhuis---2.36GA/60---.920Sv%
16.--timmonen & coburn---2.46GA/60---.912SV%
17.--Hamonic & Mcdonald---2.46GA/60---.914SV%
18.--Kulikov & Weaver---2.46GA/60---.922SV%
19.--Kuba & Karlsson---2.50GA/60---.920SV%
20.--Bouwmeester & Butler---2.52GA/60---.923SV%
21.--Alzner & Carlson---2.55GA/60---.914SV%
22.--Fayne & Greene---2.56GA/60---.900SV%
23.--Gunnerson & Phanuef---2.64GA/60---.909SV%

The players in italics should expect a decline in stopping goals.
The bold should expect an increase in preventing goals relative to league average goaltending.

Petry was part of the 11th best defensive pair in the league. they get league average goaltending and they are top 5.
Look at the results and facts.

That was only half a years play.
Both are in the 25-26 age range were Dmen mature.
Top 5 GA with Dubnyk playing .920 for the next 6 -8 years would be Sweet.
IMO that was a solid pairing oilbear, not sure that it would be Stanley Cup Championship top pairing strong, and probably not IMO, but If we had another pairing as strong as that one to compliment Smid and Petry then we're cooking with gas. Klefbom and Justin Schultz FTW?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Stauffer View Post
Joe,

I tweeted out on April 30th tha Teubert was out a while after undergoing facial surgery, so I am pretty sure I was aware that he is out.
Also according to Todd Nelson who I spoke to today on "Oilers Now" and tonight again to confirm, Marincin is eligible to play.
Thx.

Bob
I too would like to see Marincin get some games in, but OKC is a Calder Cup contender and through 2 rounds I have a hard time second guessing Nelson which is a polar opposite of the Oilers coaching this season. Marincin will get his chance next season, until then he needs to get thicker and stronger and learn from practicing against top notched AHL players in practice.

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Old
05-15-2012, 01:19 AM
  #286
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
That said I would very much like to echo CupofOil's belief that you may be short changing Klefbom.

Pre-draft Klefbom was talked about more so for his potential offensive upside than he was a a shutdown defender. The guy has a big shot, which we heard he started to use much more near the end of his SEL season, and a very good first pass. If you look at his number as a very young kid in the Färjestads J18 he was close to a ppg and had 10 goals in 31 games.
It would sure be nice if Klefbom turns out to be the kind of player you suggest.

How long has it been since the Oilers drafted a player that turned into a legit first pairing guy? Petry in 06 may get there but prior to that its a long list of guys like Plante, Chorney, Syvret, Lynch, Henry and too many others I know I never even heard of, all the way back to 1996 when they selected Poti. Unless you really consider Greene an impact guy, the Oilers haven't drafted a decent defenseman in the last fifteen years.

And the story before that isn't much better. Paul Coffey in 1980, Lowe in 1979 and Steve Smith in 1981 .... couple of decent filler guys since then but nothing worthy talking about in a first pairing sense. So really, after thirty years of futility at the draft as far as d-men are concerned, it would be amazing if both Petry and Klefbom turned into cornerstone guys. We are due.


Quote:
Now of course Smid is an example of a guy who looked like he would be much better offensively than he so there are no sure things. But given the Oilers forwrads and Klefboms shot and excellent passing and skating skills he has a very good chance of putting up points in the NHL.
Now you're selling Laddy short ... the man was a goal scoring machine last season.

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Old
05-15-2012, 01:57 AM
  #287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Stauffer View Post
Someone also suggested I was calling for Seguin and Landeskog in that last two drafts; that is total crap!
From the time Hall picked himself up off the ice in Brandon after getting destroyed by Hamonic; he was my guy. He's a winner.
And after seeing RNH 11 times last season with the Rebels, I am pretty sure I was leading the charge for the "Nuge".

Take care,

Stauffer
And the two or three months before that Seguin was your guy.

Ryan Whitney could barely skate last year. Top four dman? Those days are gone like the carefree tree planting summers of yore.

Ryan Murray hasnt shown much to think he would be higher than Schultz on the depth chart of many nhl teams. Is it your contention that the Oilers traded top four dman Tom Gilbert to solidify their bottom pairing?

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05-15-2012, 04:55 AM
  #288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Stauffer View Post
Joe,

I tweeted out on April 30th tha Teubert was out a while after undergoing facial surgery, so I am pretty sure I was aware that he is out.
Also according to Todd Nelson who I spoke to today on "Oilers Now" and tonight again to confirm, Marincin is eligible to play.
Thx.

Bob
Bob I am with you on Martin getting to play unless he looks totally out of it I can not see the harm. Who in your opinion would come out of the Barons line up though?

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05-15-2012, 06:57 AM
  #289
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It would sure be nice if Klefbom turns out to be the kind of player you suggest.

How long has it been since the Oilers drafted a player that turned into a legit first pairing guy? Petry in 06 may get there but prior to that its a long list of guys like Plante, Chorney, Syvret, Lynch, Henry and too many others I know I never even heard of, all the way back to 1996 when they selected Poti. Unless you really consider Greene an impact guy, the Oilers haven't drafted a decent defenseman in the last fifteen years.

And the story before that isn't much better. Paul Coffey in 1980, Lowe in 1979 and Steve Smith in 1981 .... couple of decent filler guys since then but nothing worthy talking about in a first pairing sense. So really, after thirty years of futility at the draft as far as d-men are concerned, it would be amazing if both Petry and Klefbom turned into cornerstone guys. We are due.
It certainly has been a long time. And not to defend the Oilers on this because their record does not deserve it, but I am going to bet that they are far from the only team with such a record.

Dmen are so often a crapshoot. Take a look at Boston. You have to go back to Kyle McLeran in 1995 to find a guy who had any significant career. Of course it would shock me if Hamilton does not turn out to be very good.

That said I think that the whole approach to the draft is much different now. Teams know that with the cap they have to develop most of their own talent and many teams have significantly expanded their scouting infrastructure. So even though I think it will still be ture that on the back end there will be far more misses than hits things should get at least a little better.


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Originally Posted by harpoon View Post

Now you're selling Laddy short ... the man was a goal scoring machine last season.
I love Smid, and while we both know he is never going to be an Erik Karlsson I actually believe he has it in him to build on the offensive side of his game. I could see a season where he has 8-10 goals and 25+ points, but of course I am not going to bet the farm on this happening.

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05-15-2012, 08:55 AM
  #290
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Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback View Post
You would think Bob Stauffer would know that Teubert is injured and Marancin isn't on the clear day list for OKC

Guess not
Pretty sure guys from junior don't have to be on the clear day roster.

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05-15-2012, 12:53 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
Well if the plan is to move Hall to C, what do you want with Gagner? 3RW? 3C? Trade him and get some value for him. You don't trade away elite talent like Nail, to fill holes, you trade guys like Gagner to fill holes.
What could we get for Gags and PRV?

Who ever that player is, that is the closest we can get to a #1 dman.

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05-15-2012, 05:18 PM
  #292
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We got fleeced on the Whitney for Visnovsky deal,
We got fleeced on the Schultz for Gilbert deal,
...
Who really trusts this management group to build a solid defense?
I disagree wholeheartedly.

Whitney was point for point just as good as Vishnovski last year until he was injured and is 7 years younger. He was making less money and had already won a cup. This deal was a slam dunk imo and with time it may turn back into a great deal for the oil. This past season and part of last season was a struggle, but lots of players get injured and take time to get back to form.( see Patrice Bergeron, Gary Roberts)

I love the schultz deal, and it filled a real need for the team in creating a potential stopper pairing of Smid and Schultz. Gilbert is not good enough in any aspect of the game to be anything more than a 3-5 d-man on a good team. Schultz at least is very strong defensively.

IMO our defence current and prospects is stuffed with 3-4 d-men and is in need of 2 1-2 d-men. There is the possibility that one or more of them either turn their game around like whitney or develop into a 1-2 in the case of Petry or Klefbom. We still need to keep irons in the fire looking for one, but imo Murray is not the answer and the draft debate in Edmonton between Murray and Yakupov is not rational. Murray might or might not be the #1 d-man we need, but Yakupov will be a 30-40 goal scorer and that is worth a ton more than a maybe on defence.

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05-15-2012, 05:18 PM
  #293
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Originally Posted by Bob Stauffer View Post
Gentlemen,

Frankly I am a little dissapointed OKC has two D that are ECHL call-ups playing ahead of Marincin right now with Teubert out of he line-up.

Take care,

Stauffer
Putting a guy right out of juniors into the AHL playoffs would be a lot to ask. Nelson is probably more comfortable with the steadiness of a couple of vets over the uncertainty of the young guy, especially in do-or-die playoff situations. I don't think it necessarily says anything about Marincin or his ability. At this point, winning is more important than developing, I would think.

I'm glad that Martin is around the room, though, and hopefully seeing what it takes to be prepared for games like these.

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05-15-2012, 05:34 PM
  #294
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I disagree wholeheartedly.

Whitney was point for point just as good as Vishnovski last year until he was injured and is 7 years younger. He was making less money and had already won a cup. This deal was a slam dunk imo and with time it may turn back into a great deal for the oil. This past season and part of last season was a struggle, but lots of players get injured and take time to get back to form.( see Patrice Bergeron, Gary Roberts)

I love the schultz deal, and it filled a real need for the team in creating a potential stopper pairing of Smid and Schultz. Gilbert is not good enough in any aspect of the game to be anything more than a 3-5 d-man on a good team. Schultz at least is very strong defensively.

IMO our defence current and prospects is stuffed with 3-4 d-men and is in need of 2 1-2 d-men. There is the possibility that one or more of them either turn their game around like whitney or develop into a 1-2 in the case of Petry or Klefbom. We still need to keep irons in the fire looking for one, but imo Murray is not the answer and the draft debate in Edmonton between Murray and Yakupov is not rational. Murray might or might not be the #1 d-man we need, but Yakupov will be a 30-40 goal scorer and that is worth a ton more than a maybe on defence.
Whitney never won a cup.

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