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Old
03-20-2013, 01:23 PM
  #451
brs03
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If you think the Ducks have among the best shooters in the league (they don't) or best goaltending in the league (it's good, but it's not top tier) then you could say they're not getting that lucky. I can't say either of those things.

Possession is the best predictor of future success. Better than raw scoring, much better than W-L record. Lucky teams win whether they're objectively good or not. That's why it's so interesting in cases like the Ducks which are gigantic outliers. And coaching has little impact on sh% or sv%.

Honestly? I expect them to become a much better possession team in the future while their luck regresses. Good coaches beget good possession teams, and BB is a good coach (Caps were above average-to-dominant possession teams under him). For some reason (iffy roster is my guess) they're a terrible possession team this year, much worse than I would have expected.


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Old
03-20-2013, 01:32 PM
  #452
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Originally Posted by strungout View Post
Hasn't done much eh?

I'd gladly take 21-3-4 compared to this **** we're watching on a nightly basis.
Hasn't done anything different yet than he did with the Caps. I'm not bashing BB. My point is, it's just the same as when he coached the Caps. That it was fun and exciting during the regular season, and they came back when down a lot. But the comment was that the Ducks are fundamentally different than BB's Caps were, and I don't think there's any evidence of that based on comparative success rates.

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Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
I'm interested to see what the Ducks do in the playoffs. I don't think BB has what it takes but we'll see.
I happen to agree, but yeah, it's the playoffs that will be the first opportunity to see if there's a difference. Declaring one now is just baseless.

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03-20-2013, 01:34 PM
  #453
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
If you think the Ducks have among the best shooters in the league (they don't) or best goaltending in the league (it's good, but it's not top tier) then you could say they're not getting that lucky. I can't say either of those things.

Possession is the best predictor of future success. Better than raw scoring, much better than W-L record. Lucky teams win whether they're objectively good or not. That's why it's so interesting in cases like the Ducks which are gigantic outliers. And coaching has little impact on sh% or sv%.

Honestly? I expect them to become a much better possession team in the future. Good coaches beget good possession teams, and BB is a good coach. For some reason (iffy roster is my guess) they're a terrible possession team this year, much worse than I would have expected.
BB has never been a good possession coach here. Even when the caps were firing on all cylinders they were getting pinned a ton and most offense was from one and done rushes. Ducks don't have particularly puck possession inclined personnel aside from Perry so I don't see why that would change.

The biggest factor is that the Ducks defensive personnel is on another level from anything he had here in terms of their combination of ability and experience.

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Old
03-20-2013, 01:36 PM
  #454
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Mark Gandler:
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Last few years, Capitals backbone are third line players.
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In Washington they didn't see all the good things Sasha did. Only his mistakes.

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03-20-2013, 03:01 PM
  #455
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Mark Gandler:
He misstated the metaphor. Our backbone is now our *******.

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Old
03-20-2013, 03:57 PM
  #456
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
If you think the Ducks have among the best shooters in the league (they don't) or best goaltending in the league (it's good, but it's not top tier) then you could say they're not getting that lucky. I can't say either of those things.
That goes on the assumption that all shots are created equal, which is far from the case. In general good teams create better scoring opportunities and limit those same types of chances against. When you are taking better quality shots you are going to put more in and when you are giving up lesser quality shots your goaltender is going to stop more.

I hate the way so many try to take the predictive elements of a sport that is very much a series of single isolated events in baseball and try to do the same thing with a free flowing sport like hockey where almost everything that happens is very intertwined with what else is occurring around it and beforehand.

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03-20-2013, 04:20 PM
  #457
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Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
That goes on the assumption that all shots are created equal, which is far from the case. In general good teams create better scoring opportunities and limit those same types of chances against. When you are taking better quality shots you are going to put more in and when you are giving up lesser quality shots your goaltender is going to stop more.

I hate the way so many try to take the predictive elements of a sport that is very much a series of single isolated events in baseball and try to do the same thing with a free flowing sport like hockey where almost everything that happens is very intertwined with what else is occurring around it and beforehand.
Except "shot quality" has tended to correlate very strongly with possession every time it's been examined (at least when you get past the level of the individual player). To be a team that creates very high quality chances, allows very low quality chances, and yet in doing so gets outchanced significantly as a matter of course would make them a tremendous outlier. To the point where it's tough to imagine it being sustainable.

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03-20-2013, 04:35 PM
  #458
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Except "shot quality" has tended to correlate very strongly with possession every time it's been examined (at least when you get past the level of the individual player)
But you can't do that. Semin taking a wrister from between the circles is a lot different than Ward.

Free flowing sports aren't just about creating chances for anyone they are about creating chances for the right players. Plenty of technically 'good' quality shots are willingly given up to the right players while teams work hard to take away poorer quality ones other players.

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03-20-2013, 04:40 PM
  #459
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Chances for good vs. bad players is born out in icetime and somewhat in matchups, though. It really only becomes an issue if a team is intentionally deploying their players in a poor manner (and bad players don't generate chances for vs. against at as high a rate as good players do; that's the point).

Again, possession has so far turned out to be the best predictor of success out there. If the Ducks are an outlier and their success is more than just randomness, they'd be a huge exception. I'd sooner believe that they'll become a better possession team in the future than I would that they'd continue to outperform their current numbers at such a dramatic rate.

But that's just me.

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03-20-2013, 05:08 PM
  #460
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In Washington they didn't see all the good things Sasha did. Only his mistakes.
As big of an ass**** as Gandler is that's kinda hard to argue.

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Old
03-20-2013, 05:09 PM
  #461
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Originally Posted by CapitalsCupFantasy View Post
Bruce could win the Stanley Cup singlehandedly and his critics would still poopoo him for it. Sad really.
Same way McPhee "could" build a stanley cup winning team

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03-21-2013, 02:34 AM
  #462
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With the Avs loss, Caps are now 29th. Window closed? Nope, just MacKinn'ing.

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03-21-2013, 06:42 AM
  #463
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anaheim 4 chicago 2.

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03-21-2013, 07:44 AM
  #464
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With the Avs loss, Caps are now 29th. Window closed? Nope, just MacKinn'ing.
Man, I hope your are right....an extended win streak at this point would be such a disappointment because of how pointless it would be....

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03-21-2013, 07:56 AM
  #465
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Originally Posted by fedfed View Post
With the Avs loss, Caps are now 29th. Window closed? Nope, just MacKinn'ing.
I know you meant the Avs win but one thing you are forgetting....Tampa, Philly and Buffalo have shown some impressive suckitude this year and are neck and neck with us.

It more these sucky EC teams we have to "contend" with.

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03-21-2013, 09:06 AM
  #466
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$15.5M tied up in Ovy and Green for the next 2 seasons.

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03-21-2013, 01:52 PM
  #467
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Darrell Romuld (CTV) @CTVDarrell 41m
President: The Lethbridge Hurricanes have been handed a timeline to change their uniforms by the Washington Capitals; Complained likeness.


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Old
03-21-2013, 01:54 PM
  #468
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I always wondered how those teams dealt with copyright issues and the like. I figured they had the NHL's blessing; guess not...

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03-21-2013, 02:05 PM
  #469
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Windsor's reds are the same thing too, just without the wording and 3 stars on the front.

I'm wondering why Ted would even care. Wouldn't the likeness just lead to more Caps' jerseys sold?


Last edited by NobodyBeatsTheWiz: 03-21-2013 at 02:30 PM.
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03-21-2013, 02:11 PM
  #470
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What I don't understand is why the Lethbridge Hurricanes would choose the Capitals to imitate.

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03-21-2013, 02:13 PM
  #471
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Originally Posted by Ref9 View Post
Darrell Romuld (CTV) @CTVDarrell 41m
President: The Lethbridge Hurricanes have been handed a timeline to change their uniforms by the Washington Capitals; Complained likeness.
WHL fan chiming in here...I wonder what the true motivation for Leonsis is here? I understand trademarks and intellectual property, but really; who cares?

The owners of the Chilliwack Bruins, Portland Winterhawks & Kitchener Rangers better watch their backs.

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Old
03-21-2013, 02:17 PM
  #472
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Originally Posted by RammsteinGT View Post
WHL fan chiming in here...I wonder what the true motivation for Leonsis is here? I understand trademarks and intellectual property, but really; who cares?

The owners of the Chilliwack Bruins, Portland Winterhawks & Kitchener Rangers better watch their backs.
Well, Kitchener used to be affiliated with the New York Rangers and Portland's jerseys are based on ones obtained via Blackhawks' owenrship, so those are different scenarios. But yeah, the Chilliwack one is seemingly the same situation.

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Old
03-21-2013, 02:18 PM
  #473
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Originally Posted by RammsteinGT View Post
WHL fan chiming in here...I wonder what the true motivation for Leonsis is here? I understand trademarks and intellectual property, but really; who cares?

The owners of the Chilliwack Bruins, Portland Winterhawks & Kitchener Rangers better watch their backs.
You should probably look up how to use a semicolon.

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Old
03-21-2013, 02:20 PM
  #474
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You should probably look up how to use a semicolon.
Quit being such a semi-colon

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Old
03-21-2013, 02:46 PM
  #475
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Originally Posted by Ref9 View Post
Darrell Romuld (CTV) @CTVDarrell 41m
President: The Lethbridge Hurricanes have been handed a timeline to change their uniforms by the Washington Capitals; Complained likeness.
Good to see Ted and GMGM taking care of the big things.

THE BRAND! THE BRAND! PROTECT THE BRAND!

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