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ATD2012 Final: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Inglewood Jacks

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Old
05-18-2012, 08:31 AM
  #26
markrander87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Actually, I think it's more of a referendum on the state of the offense/defense balance in the ATD. Essentially, this model offers voters a bare minimum of "guaranteed" offense (guys like Jagr, Gretzky and Richard who we know will score) slapped onto a team that is otherwise highly defensive. Among the semifinalists, the team with the best second line was the team that lost in five games. I'm not sure this indicates that the voters favor depth. It seems to me that the voters at this point seem to favor defense quite heavily, and don't give much of a **** about offensive depth.

This was not always the case. This is a new team-building paradigm, and a shocking new level of homogeneity among the teams that have advanced furthest. Earlier, in an ironic response to my criticism of voting patterns, GMM suggested that I post my votes as a template for others to follow. Sadly, the real irony seems to be that the voters are, in fact, following some template, just not mine.


Bingo, it seems as though we marginalize lower tier 1st liners and great 2nd liners because "it is the ATD", but high end offensive guys get treated as if they are still playing against mediocre NHL'ers.

Edit:

Anyways I don't want to sidetrack the finals between these two teams, perhaps this discussion could be moved to the main draft thread?

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05-18-2012, 09:45 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Actually, I think it's more of a referendum on the state of the offense/defense balance in the ATD. Essentially, this model offers voters a bare minimum of "guaranteed" offense (guys like Jagr, Gretzky and Richard who we know will score) slapped onto a team that is otherwise highly defensive. Among the semifinalists, the team with the best second line was the team that lost in five games. I'm not sure this indicates that the voters favor depth. It seems to me that the voters at this point seem to favor defense quite heavily, and don't give much of a **** about offensive depth.

This was not always the case. This is a new team-building paradigm, and a shocking new level of homogeneity among the teams that have advanced furthest. Earlier, in an ironic response to my criticism of voting patterns, GMM suggested that I post my votes as a template for others to follow. Sadly, the real irony seems to be that the voters are, in fact, following some template, just not mine.
"The semifinalist with the best second line left" according to you was as guilty as anyone if not moreso of drafting 2/3 of a good line and finishing it off with a scrub - he did it on both scoring lines. At least arrbez broke the new "formula" for making lines with his second line, though he obviously followed it with his first.

Speaking of second lines, Northcott is definitely better than Stasiuk, but how do Modano-Palffy compare to Lafontaine-Mogilny?

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05-18-2012, 09:48 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
"The semifinalist with the best second line left" according to you was as guilty as anyone if not moreso of drafting 2/3 of a good line and finishing it off with a scrub - he did it on both scoring lines. At least arrbez broke the new "formula" for making lines with his second line, though he obviously followed it with his first.

Speaking of second lines, Northcott is definitely better than Stasiuk, but how do Modano-Palffy compare to Lafontaine-Mogilny?
In my opinion I had the best 2nd line in the draft (unless I'm forgetting one but I was definitely close to the top).Seems like the voters didn't favored depth and balanced forward group this time around , which was their call.

I would personally favor Modano-Palffy in this particular match-up.Modano brings more than Lafontaine on the ice , and I would favor Palffy over Mogilny.Modano was simply a train.

Lafontaine was better offensively , but Modano's offense is probably underrated.Anyone who watched him know how good he truly was despite Hitchcock's regime.


Last edited by BenchBrawl: 05-18-2012 at 09:57 AM.
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05-18-2012, 09:55 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Both of these teams represent what seems to be the new fashion in ATD team-building.

1) Draft 2/3rds of an excellent first line.
2) Draft a bunch of defensemen early.
3) ???
4) Profit.

Personally, I find it a bit banal that three out of the four semifinalists this year were teams built around this concept, but sometimes the wind just blows that way in the ATD. I think overpass deserves a lot of the credit (or blame) for the above being such a popular scheme this year.
New fashion? I've pretty much been doing this exact thing since ATD 8 (Cashman and Klukay in my top-6), and with decent success I think. I always try aim for a strong D corps, and I'm not sure I've ever rounded out a top line before putting a couple pieces in place on my second unit.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
The top lines of every ATD winner since the large format began in ATD 7:

2011: Bucyk - Messier - Selanne

2010: Jackson - Abel - Howe

12: Dumart - Schmidt - Bauer

11: Delvecchio - Nighbor - Cook

10: Bucyk - Sakic - Maltsev

9: Jackson - Mikita - Nedomansky

8: Simmer - Lalonde - Cournoyer

7: Bentley - Lalonde - Taylor


I'm not sure I see a pattern here, guys. If it was as simple as getting a generational offensive talent and then loading up on D, Gretzky/Lemieux/Orr probably would have won one by now.


Last edited by arrbez: 05-18-2012 at 10:25 AM.
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05-18-2012, 10:00 AM
  #30
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What I like about AK's top 6 is that the best players of both lines are incredibly hard to stop physically.Both Jagr and Modano were trains with lots of speed , skills , size and strenght.

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05-18-2012, 10:28 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
"The semifinalist with the best second line left" according to you was as guilty as anyone if not moreso of drafting 2/3 of a good line and finishing it off with a scrub - he did it on both scoring lines. At least arrbez broke the new "formula" for making lines with his second line, though he obviously followed it with his first.

Speaking of second lines, Northcott is definitely better than Stasiuk, but how do Modano-Palffy compare to Lafontaine-Mogilny?
I'd say Mogilny Palffy is close. Mogilny peaks slightly higher as a goal scorer but Palffy is close and better overall offensively. His totals are just smaller due to when he peaked.

Modano swings the advantage to his team through his roughly equivalent offense while providing more size, longevity and defensive play.

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05-18-2012, 01:27 PM
  #32
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Hey all,

My internet access will be hit and miss this weekend. I should be able to get on for a little bit at some point though. Likely tomorrow afternoon.

Speak well of me.

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05-19-2012, 05:24 PM
  #33
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i did not expect it, but it is nice to be here.





gretzky is the big question in any series or game he plays, so i will start there.


cleghorn and chara will of course play against gretzky.


i think most would expect me to use my 3rd line against gretzky, but i don't think that is the best option, except for defensive zone faceoffs. gretzky was very rarely shut down, even by strong defensive players.

i said in last ATD that time in the offensive zone may be more important for gretzky than great linemates. he was still very dominant without great linemates, but had very little value outside the offensive zone and got scored on very much.

gretzky generally averaged about 90-120 "minuses" (ESGA+SHGA) per season. although his bad GA numbers from the latter part of his career are more well known, he was also scored on very much in edmonton, and has the highest total ESGA in history.

for example, total GA in '86....

gary nylund: 182
dave ellett: 171
randy ladouceur : 168
reed larson: 163
wayne gretzky: 162 (42 PPGA)

similarly, gretzky was 13th in GA in '83, 14th in '84, 15th in '85, and 11th in '87. almost all players with higher GA played for terrible teams, and most were d-men.

and keep in mind that that occured with jari kurri's 2 way play at his side.


but as we all know, gretzky was a super-dominant scorer, so his +/- was very high in all of these seasons, and he led the NHL in +/- in '82, '84, '85, '87, and was in the top 10 in +/- in every season from '81-'88.


i think the only way to contain gretzky is to keep him out of the offensive zone. my idea here is to use a territorially dominant unit of jagr, ratelle, cleghorn and chara against gretzky. although my 3rd line is obviously much superior defensively, i think it would also give gretzky more time in the offensive zone.


ratelle was a very good possession player and jagr was one of the best ever. jagr tended to dominate possession. i think they will force gretzky to play D most of the time. ratelle was also a lot better than gretzky on faceoffs.

but for defensive zone faceoffs, my 3rd line will play against gretzky. tkaczuk was also a lot better than gretzky on faceoffs.

we also know that cleghorn and chara were very good possession players in addition to being great defensive players. chara's corsi and +/- show his ability to get the puck going the right direction.

b/c sprague cleghorn usually played 60 minutes, his territorial play can be seen indirectly through his teams' GF/GA records. overpass posted during the debate over the top 60 d-men an analysis of how teams win/loss and GF/GA records changed with and without cleghorn.
Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Teams almost invariably improved when Cleghorn arrived and declined when he left. Especially on the defensive side, where the pre/post Cleghorn squads were 6% worse than league average, as compared to 14% better than league average with Cleghorn. The offensive difference was also positive - 5% above league average with Cleghorn, and 3% below league average without him.


gretzky was a dominant ES scorer, but was not as dominant a territorial player. he generally traded chances with opponents, but b/c he was much better than anyone at creating quality chances, his teams hugely outscored his GA. when gretzky's teammates did not get him enough time in the offensive zone, as later in his career, he sometimes only broke even at ES or was outscored.

putting gretzky in his defensive zone makes him much much less valuable, not only b/c he cannot play offense, but also b/c he generally waited for his teammates to recover the puck, so his team usually spent more time in the defensive zone than necessary.

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05-19-2012, 07:57 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Both of these teams represent what seems to be the new fashion in ATD team-building.

1) Draft 2/3rds of an excellent first line.
2) Draft a bunch of defensemen early.
3) ???
4) Profit.

Personally, I find it a bit banal that three out of the four semifinalists this year were teams built around this concept, but sometimes the wind just blows that way in the ATD. I think overpass deserves a lot of the credit (or blame) for the above being such a popular scheme this year.
I did it with 3/3 of an excellent 1st line, and while my defense was great it wasn't a crazy "draft 3 d-men in the top-120" corps like I had in the past.

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05-19-2012, 08:37 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Both of these teams represent what seems to be the new fashion in ATD team-building.

1) Draft 2/3rds of an excellent first line.
2) Draft a bunch of defensemen early.
3) ???
4) Profit.

Personally, I find it a bit banal that three out of the four semifinalists this year were teams built around this concept, but sometimes the wind just blows that way in the ATD. I think overpass deserves a lot of the credit (or blame) for the above being such a popular scheme this year.
I did it with 3/3 of an excellent 1st line, and while my defense was great it wasn't a crazy "draft 3 d-men in the top-120" corps like I had in the past.

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05-21-2012, 03:23 AM
  #36
nik jr
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neutral zone

the more standard way to limit time in the offensive zone is through control of the neutral zone. against the unique playmaking ability of gretzky, this is especially important.


my reasons for thinking kazan will have more control of the neutral zone:


-- i am not really sure what kind of coach cecil hart was, but the general view of him in ATD seems to be that he emphasized offense. OTOH, hart coached when passive defensive play was normal. i have not found much about which style of play he liked, so he may have been more defensive minded.

toe blake is more famous for the '50s dynasty, which apparently played a more offensive style, but '60s dynasty was more defensive, relying on its 2 way F's and d-corps. blake also limited young cournoyer's TOI and made him a PP specialist. surprisingly, henri richard was never a point per game player after '63 (and only once in playoffs), and peaked at 61p in '66.


-- the vast majority of my players have played in a defensive scheme in which clogging the neutral zone was a basic part of the gameplan. and most of them also played for successful teams, winning the cup or reaching the finals.

cleghorn throughout his NHL career, but particularly in ottawa; chara in ottawa and boston, and with slovakia in international play; desjardins with habs and with flyers under hitchcock; johansson with washington in later '90s-early 2000s; svoboda with habs. smith and naslund with habs; davidson under hap day; modano in dallas; ratelle with boston under don cherry.

even the least defensive minded F's of my team..... andreychuk with NJD under lemaire; palffy with LAK and slovakia in international play (and slovakia had its greatest period of success in international play during palffy's time); jagr in international play, and to a lesser extent with NYR (and czechs also had their greatest period of success during jagr's career, and even when hasek was not in net).

i do not know enough about '80s sabres to characterize their style of play, so i cannot include ramsey and foligno.

somewhat ironically, the players who seem to have never played in such an environment are among my best defensive players: tkaczuk, nesterenko and possibly ramsey.


playing a few seasons for a defensive team does not indicate defensive skill, but as i mentioned in the winnipeg vs philadelphia series, clogging the neutral zone is actually very simple, which is why it is used so often by teams lacking talent and why it has been learned and practiced by teams throughout the world, whether they use it regularly or not. even a weak defensive player like jagr has been able to go from one style of play in NHL to the full blown trap of czechs on big ice with success.


-- i think inglewood's players are more offensive minded. primarily b/c of lafontaine, mogilny and gretzky. top 6 generally play over 1/2 of each game. gretzky always played a very offensive game, and his teammates' play revolved around him. lafontaine and mogilny were also very offensive minded players who generally played a game of speed and quick strikes.

my 1st line is also very offensive minded, but as i mentioned in my 1st post, should have possession most of the time.


-- size and reach of my players should be important in the neutral zone. as a group my team is fairly big, and the smallest players (naslund, palffy) were both fast, which offsets their size a bit.



kazan will not play "the trap." toe blake was not that defensive minded, but apparently did use different forechecking schemes, as all or most all coaches do. kazan will generally use only 1 forechecker (unless, of course, the puck is loose). i don't think kazan has the personnel to play an aggressive hard forecheck, and i don't think that is the right plan.



against gretzky's unit specifically, the forechecker (mostly jagr) will try to force the puck into the hands of moose johnson, who was well below leetch in puck skills.

similarly, trying to force the puck to watson is much better than to boucher, depending on how players are set up, of course.

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05-21-2012, 09:16 AM
  #37
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And the underestimation of (particularly prime) Gretzky without the puck continues..

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05-21-2012, 12:16 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
And the underestimation of (particularly prime) Gretzky without the puck continues..
You can't change the fact that he got scored on an awful lot. You seem to think it was always someone else's fault...

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05-21-2012, 12:30 PM
  #39
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You can't change the fact that he got scored on an awful lot. You seem to think it was always someone else's fault...
Yeah, considering I don't think Inglewood has gone past 5 games so far in the playoffs, I don't think there has been any underestimation of Gretzky's skill (not to say that arrbez hasn't built a stellar team).

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05-21-2012, 01:39 PM
  #40
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Most goals scored against while on the ice in an NHL career

1. Wayne Gretzky* 2285
2. Mark Messier* 2183
3. Raymond Bourque* 2144
4. Paul Coffey* 2018
5. Scott Stevens* 2017
6. Borje Salming* 1977
7. Larry Murphy* 1958
8. Chris Chelios 1951
9. Ron Francis* 1843
10. Steve Yzerman* 1754
Dave Babych 1754
12. Brian Leetch* 1742
13. Larry Robinson* 1716
14. Carol Vadnais 1704
15. Nicklas Lidstrom 1658
16. Rod Brind'Amour 1657
17. Rob Ramage 1648
18. Al MacInnis* 1639
19. Kevin Hatcher 1617
20. Randy Carlyle 1609
21. Rob Blake 1581
22. Reed Larson 1572
23. Doug Gilmour* 1551
24. Teppo Numminen 1547
25. Mark Recchi 1545

With the exception of some defensemen who were notoriously weak in their own zone, this list seems more like a list of players who were good enough to get tons of ice time for a long time than anything else.

I have Gretzky in my division in the LeafCentral draft (I took over a team whose GM was ill), and the opposing GM was arguing that any player who was checking Gretzky couldn't score, which is obviously ridiculous. I was going to use the "Gretzky had more goals scored against him than any other player in history" argument, but decided that would be incredibly misleading after looking at the names of the guys right behind Gretzky in the category.

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05-21-2012, 01:44 PM
  #41
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Highest Career +/-

1. Larry Robinson* 730
2. Bobby Orr* 597
3. Raymond Bourque* 528
4. Wayne Gretzky* 518
5. Bobby Clarke* 506
6. Denis Potvin* 460
Serge Savard* 460
8. Guy Lafleur* 453
9. Bryan Trottier* 452
10. Nicklas Lidstrom 450
11. Brad McCrimmon 444
12. Mark Howe* 400
13. Steve Shutt* 393
Scott Stevens* 393
15. Mike Bossy* 381
16. Al MacInnis* 373
17. Brad Park* 358
18. Dallas Smith 355
19. Chris Chelios 350
20. Jacques Lemaire* 349
21. Guy Lapointe* 329
22. Craig Ramsay 328
23. Bill Hajt 321
24. Bill Barber* 316
25. Brian Propp 310
26. Jean Ratelle* 299
Andre Dupont 299
28. Jari Kurri* 298
29. Jimmy Watson 295
30. Paul Coffey* 294
31. Wayne Cashman 281
32. Jaromir Jagr 280
33. Rod Langway* 277
34. Yvan Cournoyer* 271
35. Sergei Fedorov 261

I've seen the "Jagr visibly put in very little effort when the puck wasn't on his stick, but his consistently good plus minus shows that his awesome puck possession ability gave him a lot of defensive value" argument quite a lot recently on the HOH board.

So what does Gretzky's plus minus mean?

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05-21-2012, 01:45 PM
  #42
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Quote:
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Yeah, considering I don't think Inglewood has gone past 5 games so far in the playoffs, I don't think there has been any underestimation of Gretzky's skill (not to say that arrbez hasn't built a stellar team).
I remember one 7 game series for Inglewood, and 2 of them for Kazan.


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05-21-2012, 11:05 PM
  #43
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You can't change the fact that he got scored on an awful lot. You seem to think it was always someone else's fault...
I'll just let TDMM's posts speak for themselves.

I don't want to get into it with you again about how group stats are rubbish for describing individual play.

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05-22-2012, 07:56 PM
  #44
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What's with the Leaf Lander-style career totals without any context whatsoever?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Most goals scored against while on the ice in an NHL career

1. Wayne Gretzky* 2285
2. Mark Messier* 2183
3. Raymond Bourque* 2144
4. Paul Coffey* 2018
5. Scott Stevens* 2017
6. Borje Salming* 1977
7. Larry Murphy* 1958
8. Chris Chelios 1951
9. Ron Francis* 1843
10. Steve Yzerman* 1754
Dave Babych 1754
12. Brian Leetch* 1742
13. Larry Robinson* 1716
14. Carol Vadnais 1704
15. Nicklas Lidstrom 1658
16. Rod Brind'Amour 1657
17. Rob Ramage 1648
18. Al MacInnis* 1639
19. Kevin Hatcher 1617
20. Randy Carlyle 1609
21. Rob Blake 1581
22. Reed Larson 1572
23. Doug Gilmour* 1551
24. Teppo Numminen 1547
25. Mark Recchi 1545

With the exception of some defensemen who were notoriously weak in their own zone, this list seems more like a list of players who were good enough to get tons of ice time for a long time than anything else.
yes, and it's also heavily weighted towards players who killed a ton of penalties and it is entirely comprised of players who played at least 7 seasons between 1975 and 1997, except Lidstrom (and most of them played at least a dozen of those seasons). What a horrible stat; you can do better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Highest Career +/-

1. Larry Robinson* 730
2. Bobby Orr* 597
3. Raymond Bourque* 528
4. Wayne Gretzky* 518
5. Bobby Clarke* 506
6. Denis Potvin* 460
Serge Savard* 460
8. Guy Lafleur* 453
9. Bryan Trottier* 452
10. Nicklas Lidstrom 450
11. Brad McCrimmon 444
12. Mark Howe* 400
13. Steve Shutt* 393
Scott Stevens* 393
15. Mike Bossy* 381
16. Al MacInnis* 373
17. Brad Park* 358
18. Dallas Smith 355
19. Chris Chelios 350
20. Jacques Lemaire* 349
21. Guy Lapointe* 329
22. Craig Ramsay 328
23. Bill Hajt 321
24. Bill Barber* 316
25. Brian Propp 310
26. Jean Ratelle* 299
Andre Dupont 299
28. Jari Kurri* 298
29. Jimmy Watson 295
30. Paul Coffey* 294
31. Wayne Cashman 281
32. Jaromir Jagr 280
33. Rod Langway* 277
34. Yvan Cournoyer* 271
35. Sergei Fedorov 261

I've seen the "Jagr visibly put in very little effort when the puck wasn't on his stick, but his consistently good plus minus shows that his awesome puck possession ability gave him a lot of defensive value" argument quite a lot recently on the HOH board.

So what does Gretzky's plus minus mean?
Basically the same thing but to a different extent. And yes, it's true about both players, which means that nik's strategy of keeping Gretzky out of the offensive zone is a useful one, provided he can execute it, and none of the above stats prove otherwise.

But again this is an absolutely horrible use of a stat with absolutely no context associated with it. Look at how many players on this list had their primes after 1995, when scoring started to really drop and parity between the best teams and the worst started to increase.

In terms of adjusted +/-, which actually contextualizes all these things (maybe not perfectly, but much better than raw stats) (and which is actually the basis of the above argument you are quoting, not not raw +/-), Jagr is +504 to Gretzky's +402. (in their 8 year primes, gretzky wins +349 to +336, in almost the exact same adjusted GP.)

Yes, it is arguable that Gretzky and Jagr had about the same positive impact on team goal differential at their best. Gretzky did it by being 100-20 = 80 and Jagr did it by being 90-10 = 80 but it appears that the net (even strength regular season) result was similar.

Everyone can see that Gretzky was considerably better than Jagr offensively (and pretty much everyone else as well), but also, he got scored on a ton, and Jagr didn't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Canadian
I'll just let TDMM's posts speak for themselves.

I don't want to get into it with you again about how group stats are rubbish for describing individual play.
Then you have nothing to say, because those posts said nothing useful.

You think Grant Fuhr was amazing, you think Paul Coffey wasn't nearly as bad as a lot of people insist he was, it's well known that Jari Kurri was one of the greatest defensive forwards of his time, the next four more important Oilers' defensemen of the 1980s were well-known defensive stalwarts, yet Gretzky had a ****load of goals scored against him when he was on the ice and it's blasphemous to suggest it may have had something to do with him. This doesn't add up, bro.

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05-22-2012, 09:38 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
What's with the Leaf Lander-style career totals without any context whatsoever?



yes, and it's also heavily weighted towards players who killed a ton of penalties and it is entirely comprised of players who played at least 7 seasons between 1975 and 1997, except Lidstrom (and most of them played at least a dozen of those seasons). What a horrible stat; you can do better.



Basically the same thing but to a different extent. And yes, it's true about both players, which means that nik's strategy of keeping Gretzky out of the offensive zone is a useful one, provided he can execute it, and none of the above stats prove otherwise.

But again this is an absolutely horrible use of a stat with absolutely no context associated with it. Look at how many players on this list had their primes after 1995, when scoring started to really drop and parity between the best teams and the worst started to increase
You're right it's a horrible stat which is exactly what I was trying to show.

Nik jr trotted out the lazy "Gretzky got scored on more than any other player in history" argument that I see thrown around on hfboards, (and I can't blame him, I almost used it myself in my leafschat series until I did a search for the other players who were scored on a lot and realized how misleading it was).

The argument kind of loses its luster when you see that
1) Messier and Bourque are 2/3 on the list, with Scott Stevens and Nicklas Lidstrom also placing highly
2) Gretzky's high plus minus shows that he wasn't hurting his team by allowing a lot of goals - because he was helping the team score that much more

Quote:
In terms of adjusted +/-, which actually contextualizes all these things (maybe not perfectly, but much better than raw stats) (and which is actually the basis of the above argument you are quoting, not not raw +/-), Jagr is +504 to Gretzky's +402. (in their 8 year primes, gretzky wins +349 to +336, in almost the exact same adjusted GP.)
How on on Earth does Gretzky's massive advantage in real plus-minus get "adjusted" to a large advantage for Jagr? Are you still using overpass' old "adjusted plus-minus" that I never see him using anymore?

Quote:
Yes, it is arguable that Gretzky and Jagr had about the same positive impact on team goal differential at their best. Gretzky did it by being 100-20 = 80 and Jagr did it by being 90-10 = 80 but it appears that the net (even strength regular season) result was similar.


Seriously? This is crazy talk. My god, the stars of the dead puck era have gone from massively underrated to massively overrated. And now it's hidden behind questionable formulas.

Quote:
Everyone can see that Gretzky was considerably better than Jagr offensively (and pretty much everyone else as well), but also, he got scored on a ton, and Jagr didn't.
And despite getting scored on a ton, his real life plus minus (you know, the thing that actually measure how many goals were scored by both teams when he was on the ice) murders Jagr's. I realize that plus minus is a team stat, but it is no more or less a team stat than "he got scored on a lot." If you want to bring out the "his team got scored on a lot," you need to recognize how much more often his team actually scored.

Quote:
Then you have nothing to say, because those posts said nothing useful.

You think Grant Fuhr was amazing, you think Paul Coffey wasn't nearly as bad as a lot of people insist he was, it's well known that Jari Kurri was one of the greatest defensive forwards of his time, the next four more important Oilers' defensemen of the 1980s were well-known defensive stalwarts, yet Gretzky had a ****load of goals scored against him when he was on the ice and it's blasphemous to suggest it may have had something to do with him. This doesn't add up, bro.
2nd and 4th on the list of most goal scored against were teammates of Gretzky's, including one of those "well-known defensive stalwarts."

The 80s Oilers didn't care about playing defense in the regular season. We all knew that already, didn't we?

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05-22-2012, 11:06 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
You're right it's a horrible stat which is exactly what I was trying to show.

Nik jr trotted out the lazy "Gretzky got scored on more than any other player in history" argument that I see thrown around on hfboards, (and I can't blame him, I almost used it myself in my leafschat series until I did a search for the other players who were scored on a lot and realized how misleading it was).
But we've talked about this before in the HOH section. Even when it's contextualized properly (adjusted for era, ES isolated) he's extremely high on the list, if not 1st (I am sure you can find this)

You are apparently missing that nik also pointed out how often Gretzky placed highly in goals against. Your argument seems to be "yeah, but he really just compiled his way there"... that is not true; he was among the goals against leaders many times.

You missed the point here. The stat is horrible, yes, we all know that, but your use of it was horrible - career totals, unadjusted and irrespective of situational usage. You tried to demonstrate that it was nothing more than guys who played a lot for a long time, but there is so much more to it, and if properly contextualized, a lot of those names would no longer be on the list, but I know one who still would be.

Quote:
The argument kind of loses its luster when you see that
1) Messier and Bourque are 2/3 on the list, with Scott Stevens and Nicklas Lidstrom also placing highly
2) Gretzky's high plus minus shows that he wasn't hurting his team by allowing a lot of goals - because he was helping the team score that much more
1) the only players who killed penalties on this list less often than Gretzky are Coffey and Recchi. You don't think that makes your interpretaton of this list extremely misleading?
2) yeah, I can totally see how the phrase "100-20 = 80" might have made you think I said Gretzky was hurting his team...

Quote:
How on on Earth does Gretzky's massive advantage in real plus-minus get "adjusted" to a large advantage for Jagr? Are you still using overpass' old "adjusted plus-minus" that I never see him using anymore?
Oh no, he sure doesn't; he only brought up the underlying numbers from that study about 150 times in the HOH defensemen project....

Quote:


Seriously? This is crazy talk. My god, the stars of the dead puck era have gone from massively underrated to massively overrated. And now it's hidden behind questionable formulas.
No, it's not really that questionable, as long as you understand that it is caveated as follows: regular season, per game, even strength, on their particular teams. If you do, then there is nothing overly controversial about what I said.

Quote:
And despite getting scored on a ton, his real life plus minus (you know, the thing that actually measure how many goals were scored by both teams when he was on the ice) murders Jagr's. I realize that plus minus is a team stat, but it is no more or less a team stat than "he got scored on a lot." If you want to bring out the "his team got scored on a lot," you need to recognize how much more often his team actually scored.
You have to be kidding me if you are trying to say you've never noticed how ridiculous +/- stats were in the 70s and 80s. The two are not comparable. Scoring was higher, and parity was poor. That alone means that a player in an identical situation from 1980-1990 is going to have a more extreme +/- than one in the 1992-2002 range. Look at how "common" Gretzky's career figure is among other players of his time, and how common Jagr's is.

Throw in their respective teams and linemate situations, and do you really think those numbers are that different?

Quote:
2nd and 4th on the list of most goal scored against were teammates of Gretzky's, including one of those "well-known defensive stalwarts."
good god, who on earth do you think I was referring to? You should re-read what I said.

You're getting carried away here. I'm not really commenting on their overall impacts or their values as all time greats. I am using their overall results as indicators to show their defensive records. The truth is Gretzky was bad defensively and awesome offensively. nik's strategy is to keep him out of the offensive zone. It's really questionable whether that will be accomplished, yes, but isn't the outlining of this strategy what brought ringleader of the Gretzky defenders out? Apparently thinking that keeping Gretzky playing poor defense all game, means he's underestimating Gretzky. No, nik's not underestimating Gretzky's defense - he has it just right. it sucks, and if Gretzky spent the majority of the game swirling by the blueline he'd be really ineffective. what nik is underestimating is how easily Gretzky will probably still find the puck on his stick and heading towards the other end, despite his team's best efforts. And once it's there, nothing you and I have said on this topic is relevant.

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05-22-2012, 11:56 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
But we've talked about this before in the HOH section. Even when it's contextualized properly (adjusted for era, ES isolated) he's extremely high on the list, if not 1st (I am sure you can find this)

You are apparently missing that nik also pointed out how often Gretzky placed highly in goals against. Your argument seems to be "yeah, but he really just compiled his way there"... that is not true; he was among the goals against leaders many times.

You missed the point here. The stat is horrible, yes, we all know that, but your use of it was horrible - career totals, unadjusted and irrespective of situational usage. You tried to demonstrate that it was nothing more than guys who played a lot for a long time, but there is so much more to it, and if properly contextualized, a lot of those names would no longer be on the list, but I know one who still would be.
Your understanding of my point is what's horrible here. *Before you go calling out people, you should try to understand their posts.*

I was showing that the "Gretzky had more goals scored against him than any player in history" line is misleading. *Nothing more, nothing less

Quote:
1) the only players who killed penalties on this list less often than Gretzky are Coffey and Recchi. You don't think that makes your interpretaton of this list extremely misleading?
I don't have spreadsheets in front of me, but I know Gretzky is one of the more prolific penalty killers of all time

Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
Here's the list for centres. I've gone 20 deep so you can find teammates of the wingers.

Rk Player PKTime TeamPK+
1 Don Luce 7.40 0.81
2 Doug Jarvis 6.60 0.79
3 Steve Yzerman 6.29 0.81
4 Bobby Clarke 5.76 0.81
5 Lorne Henning 3.90 0.75
6 Dave Poulin 4.65 0.79
7 Kris Draper 4.77 0.81
8 Sergei Fedorov 4.77 0.83
9 Mark Messier 9.11 0.90
10 Wayne Gretzky 5.86 0.86
11 Derek Sanderson 3.71 0.80
12 Guy Carbonneau 8.68 0.91
13 John Madden 5.74 0.87
14 Butch Goring 6.43 0.89
15 Phil Esposito 3.63 0.83
16 Adam Oates 4.46 0.87
17 Stu Barnes 3.87 0.86
18 Mike Ridley 3.55 0.85
19 Mike Peca 4.73 0.89
20 Bill Clement 4.32 0.89

The list of centres is deeper than the wingers. Oates would rank #10 on the list of wingers, Barnes would be #11.

Also, there is one way that this metric doesn't map to defensive skill. It gives credit for shorthanded goals. That's why Gretzky is in the top 10 here - most of Edmonton's value on the penalty kill came because they were so dangerous shorthanded. Although I guess you could say that's a kind of defence...
Quote:
2) yeah, I can totally see how the phrase "100-20 = 80" might have made you think I said Gretzky was hurting his team...
If Jagr is a 90 offensively, Gretzky is a lot higher than 100

Quote:
Oh no, he sure doesn't; he only brought up the underlying numbers from that study about 150 times in the HOH defensemen project....
He brings up R-on and R-off numbers, not the highly flawed adjusted plus minus formula which assumes a player had as much control over his off-ice ratio as his on-ice one. *

Quote:
No, it's not really that questionable, as long as you understand that it is caveated as follows: regular season, per game, even strength, on their particular teams. If you do, then there is nothing overly controversial about what I said.
And you need to assume that a player automatically becomes worse if he performs the same but gets better off ice support from teammates....

Quote:
You have to be kidding me if you are trying to say you've never noticed how ridiculous +/- stats were in the 70s and 80s. The two are not comparable. Scoring was higher, and parity was poor. That alone means that a player in an identical situation from 1980-1990 is going to have a more extreme +/- than one in the 1992-2002 range. Look at how "common" Gretzky's career figure is among other players of his time, and how common Jagr's is.*

Throw in their respective teams and linemate situations, and do you really think those numbers are that different?
Why should I bother adjusting plus minus for era when he initial claim was not adjusting goals against for era?

You're right that comparing raw plus minuses is stupid.*

Quote:
good god, who on earth do you think I was referring to? You should re-read what I said.

You're getting carried away here. I'm not really commenting on their overall impacts or their values as all time greats. I am using their overall results as indicators to show their defensive records. The truth is Gretzky was bad defensively and awesome offensively. nik's strategy is to keep him out of the offensive zone. It's really questionable whether that will be accomplished, yes, but isn't the outlining of this strategy what brought ringleader of the Gretzky defenders out? Apparently thinking that keeping Gretzky playing poor defense all game, means he's underestimating Gretzky. No, nik's not underestimating Gretzky's defense - he has it just right. it sucks, and if Gretzky spent the majority of the game swirling by the blueline he'd be really ineffective. what nik is underestimating is how easily Gretzky will probably still find the puck on his stick and heading towards the other end, despite his team's best efforts. And once it's there, nothing you and I have said on this topic is relevant.
Gretzky was not a good defensive player, but I don't see him as uniquely bad or anything.

I find "goals on ice against" a questionable metric without context


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05-23-2012, 12:00 AM
  #48
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As for nik's strategy, I do think that putting players who can score against Gretzky is a good strategy since you can't really stop him, but you can take advantage of his lack of defense. I'd say the same about Mario.

The ideal center to go against Gretzky IMO is someone who can slow him down as much as possible and score on the counterattack.

The Jagr line can definitely score. Are they good enough defensively? That's the question IMO


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05-23-2012, 12:03 AM
  #49
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Also to be clear, I have no idea if Gretzky's plus minus adjusted for era is better than Jagr's (the adjusted plus minus 70s is using punishes players for playing on good teams too much for me to take it seriously).

The point which apparently I didn't make clear is that goals on ice against needs to be balanced with goals on ice for, especially for a run and gun team. Anyway, carry on

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05-23-2012, 05:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
As for nik's strategy, I do think that putting players who can score against Gretzky is a good strategy since you can't really stop him, but you can take advantage of his lack of defense. I'd say the same about Mario.

The ideal center to go against Gretzky IMO is someone who can slow him down as much as possible and score on the counterattack.

The Jagr line can definitely score. Are they good enough defensively? That's the question IMO
I wrote out like 6 paragraphs last night on my laptop, and it froze on me before I could save it. Second time this has happened to me in this draft, you'd think I'd learn.

Anyhow, to touch on a couple things:

I really don't mind the matching of Kazan's first unit against Gretzky, for a few reasons. First, I think my top line is better than the Jagr line both offensively and defensively. The Jagr-Andreychuk combo is pretty poor on the backcheck, and I think that will be an issue. I think Dave Andreychuk is going to be a liability out there. Slow as molasses, no real defensive game to speak of (at least not in his scoring prime), and actually a fairly unimpressive even strength scorer (never higher than 15th in ES goals, and only top-20 three times...so, a little worse than Steve Thomas, for instance). I think Kurri is a very tough matchup for him.

And while defending Jagr is no easy task, I like the matchup Watson's size and strength gives me against him. Can't stop him completely, but at the very least I have a strong skating defensive player whose massive size and strength should make it tougher for Jagr to bull his way to the net down low. And as I've mentioned before, Rod Brind'Amour will again be seeing some time at LW on that line when the situation warrants. I think he's also a solid match against Jagr, and his famous faceoff ability will obviously be used in key situations.

I like the Cleghorn-Chara pairing a lot, but I'm not sure this type of matchup plays to their strengths, particularly those of Chara. Not that they'll be terrible, but I think you get more out of those two playing against a Howe or Messier than you do against Gretzky. Chara in particular will have to be very careful against the counter-attack, as having to turn and skate with speedy players has been a weak area for him in the past.

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