That's the one thing that separates Murray from any other pick in this draft to me, aside from maybe Nail. The worst you're going to get from him looks to be a solid 2nd pairing dman. The upside is unknown and is probably a #2 dman, though it could be higher. But basically you'll be drafting another Glen Wesley or Marc Staal to add to your defense if you select him. And that is the single biggest reason that he's likely to go before some of these other dmen that have higher upside, but far more risk to selecting them.
I agree on everything other than I would point out Staal was drafted 12th overall I believe, and Wesley at the time was considered a lights out offensive D man. Heck, two years before Wesley was drafted he had almost as many points that year than Murray has had through his whole career.
I sat by a scout (or so he said, but our conversations led me to believe it was genuine) at the start of the year at a67's game so I asked about Ceci. He sort of shrugged, and said he saw him as a second pairing D man in the league, and therefore not worthy of a top 15 pick. His point was teams will often look for bang high up in the draft because they can always fill out the bottom half of their roster easily enough with trades and free agents.
Just look at last year. Couterier was the safe pick, but the two teams in front of the flyers went for the higher risk pick. Same thing with staal, watching two other d men go in the three picks above him that were not as accomplished.
I'm not saying Murray will fall, and will say he's the first d man I would take, but if I had to predict a faller, he would be for those reasons.
Maybe, but in a draft that seems to lack forward flair, you've got a forward with size and speed. I just cannot see a lot of teams passing on that. He has first line potential, most every other forward out of the top 4 has at best second line potential.
One that comes to mind is Rielly. The kid would of been top 3 or top 5 if he was healthy all year but now I see him falling out of the top cause of the play of Maata and TT.
Maybe he would have went that high, but he is also in the mold of a Ellis or Murphy, and they did not go in the top ten despite being far stronger offensive players (just based on ppg in their draft year). He is a touch bigger though, so that will play in his favor.
To me I hope to see Reilly go high, but he is one i can see falling. Smallish offensive oriented D men have fallen in the past, and with his injury and the plethora of d men available, it can happen. Of course as often said, it only takes one team to fall in love with you.
Let's hope one of the defensive defensman fall like Reinhart or Ceci right to 15 for the Sens Or Radek Faska! I really hope we don't draft Olli Maata.
Maata is gonna be a top 2-3 dman at the next level cuz he thinks the game well and is good all around. And if you want a defensive dman with 2 way abilities I don't know why you would not want him. He is one of the safest.
IMO with his current play in the playoffs he put himself out of the reach of the teams picking 12-15th.
But that means guys like one of Ceci, Trouba, Reinhart could fall to the 15th range.
I agree a lot of the teams picking top 14 that missed the playoffs minus ONLY Edmonton are STARVING for top 6 impact forwards. I could see some studs being had later than even Hamilton was had by the B's do to all of NYI, Ott, Win and Philly wanting more impact forward in their system last year. The gab between Hamilton and the other forwards picked ahead of him being non existent tipped the scales.
It will be the same this year except there is a lot more quality dman than last years forward heavy draft.
So that means I expect all the 3 Russians, plus Forsberg, plus TT, plus Faska, and probably Colberg to be gone in the top 10-12.
Galy won't make it past 7. Minnesota loves this kid.
Source? Or like most fans at this time of the year, just you assuming?
Originally Posted by the8bandarmadillo
Nope. I think they will actually trade down if Galy is gone.
The Wild would make sense as a trade down team, especially if the 4 forwards and Murray-Dumba go top 6.
They all bring different things, but I don't feel there's a big amount of difference in value between Rielly, Reinhart, Teravainen, Trouba, etc. A team like TB could be desperate to trade up to land the offensive dynamo they need in Rielly and have all those 2nd rounds to dangle.
There are lots of quality guys in there this year, Murray, Dumba, Trouba, Reinhart, Reilly, Ceci, Koekkoek, etc. I could see somebody overjoyed at the chance to pluck one of these guys late in the first round.