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NHL Draft - Prospects Discuss hockey prospects from all over the world and the NHL Draft.

Who Will Be the Biggest Faller?

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Old
05-22-2012, 10:43 AM
  #76
Draiskull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin8se7en View Post
Morgan Reilly would be my bet if I HAD to bet on it. I think he could slip outside the top 10
It's not likely, but its the nature if the thread.
on the flip side Reilly can go as high as 2nd overall. The kid is RNH of D.
Elite vision and very good passer.

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Old
05-22-2012, 11:42 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Iggy-4-50 View Post
The way the KHL is throwing $$$ at young players I would not waste a top 10 pick on a Russian, I can see Edmonton trading the #1. with the number of great looking Dman up for grabs they would be stupid not too. I can see Montreal and Toronto dumb enough to take Yakupov and give up a lot to get him.
This argument needs to stop propogating itself.

When a player is already in North America and hasn't shown any signs of trouble (ie. no trouble with coaching, no complaints by their agent etc) the likelihood of them leaving for Russia is very slim.

Grigorenko/Yakupov are already in North America. Kuznetzov/Tarasenko were not.

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Old
05-22-2012, 11:46 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by ottawah View Post
I find it a bit amusing people trying to talk Yakapov down to number 3 ....

Columbus has not had bad luck with Russians, they have had crappy drafts. It has nothing to do with the nationality and all to do with not picking good players. Look at their high picks (top 10) the past bit.



Filatov? He had a chance elsewhere he sucks not because he wanted to go back to Russia, because he plains stinks.

Voracek, Czech maybe not a star but when looking at players after him, not bad.

Brassard? Canadian, numbers wise a good career, but really not an impact player.

Brule? Canadian. Pretty meaningless career so far.

Pickard? Canadian. Pretty much a dud.

Zherdev, Russian, not good enough to stay in NHL.

Nash - Canadian, Perfect pick.

LeClaire - Canadian, waste of a pick.

Kesla, Russian, just not that good.


When it gets right down to it, they have just made crappy picks regardless of the nationality. If anything that screams just take the best damn player possible. Yakapov is not Zherdev, not Kesla, not Filatov in the sense that he is the consensus number 1, agreed by everyone to be the best player available, the only sure star of this draft, not some player ranked as a second tier prospect like all those other russians were. No was he slides past 2 if by some miracle he does not go 1.

Speaking of which .....

As for Murray to Edmonton, that is also a pipe dream IMHO. A guy most scouts now think will be a second pairing D man going first overall? A player that may be safe, but does not have the wow factor offensively or defensively of your usual top picks? Edmonton already has a few decent d men and their top 2 prospects are D men. They need a goalie, and the draft is not a place to answer that short of a trade, and if they want to pull that off, they either take the best player available, or the team trading with them takes him.

Look back. Think anyone wants to change Kane for Alzer? Hedman for Taveras? Gubranson for Hall? I think those are all three good dependable d men who will be in the league for 15 years, be decent second pairing, maybe edge into first pairing D men, never dominate offensively or defensively but be solid good players. Sound familiar?

I'll not rag too hard on Murray, I still think he is the best D man in this draft, but as far as hockey value goes, he is not Yakapov. I cannot see how Edmonton would draft Murray number 1.
While I agree, your playing revisionist historian. It's easy to look back and say these players were crap, but they were ranked that high for a reason. No team is that bad at drafting without a reason. Their history points to a failure in their development system, over a failure in drafting. Or more likely a failure of both together.

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05-22-2012, 12:23 PM
  #79
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Grigorenko wouldn't surprise me if he was taken between 12 and 15.

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Old
05-22-2012, 12:24 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by TheFinnishKulemin View Post
While I agree, your playing revisionist historian. It's easy to look back and say these players were crap, but they were ranked that high for a reason. No team is that bad at drafting without a reason. Their history points to a failure in their development system, over a failure in drafting. Or more likely a failure of both together.
Fair enough, I'd not argue that, but the basis of my point is was that its not just drafting Russians that got them in trouble. Its hard to argue those were any worse draft picks than the other multitudes of mistakes they made.

So bad drafting, bad development, its still IMHO not a reason to think they will not take Yakapov simply because he is russian and they had bad luck with russians before.

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Old
05-22-2012, 01:08 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by ottawah View Post
I agree on everything other than I would point out Staal was drafted 12th overall I believe, and Wesley at the time was considered a lights out offensive D man. Heck, two years before Wesley was drafted he had almost as many points that year than Murray has had through his whole career.

I sat by a scout (or so he said, but our conversations led me to believe it was genuine) at the start of the year at a67's game so I asked about Ceci. He sort of shrugged, and said he saw him as a second pairing D man in the league, and therefore not worthy of a top 15 pick. His point was teams will often look for bang high up in the draft because they can always fill out the bottom half of their roster easily enough with trades and free agents.

Just look at last year. Couterier was the safe pick, but the two teams in front of the flyers went for the higher risk pick. Same thing with staal, watching two other d men go in the three picks above him that were not as accomplished.

I'm not saying Murray will fall, and will say he's the first d man I would take, but if I had to predict a faller, he would be for those reasons.
Oh no question. It's definitely a matter of likely upside vs potential in weighing Murray vs some of the other dmen in this draft (Reilly and Dumba especially). I will say though, on Staal despite him going 12th, he very nearly was selected by the Canes at #3. Their scouting staff was quite literally split between taking Staal and Johnson. Karmanos wanted the more hyped player, so that's who the Canes ended up taking. Foolish move looking back at it now IMO.


Last edited by DaveG: 05-22-2012 at 01:47 PM. Reason: clarity
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Old
05-22-2012, 01:46 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
Oh no question. It's definitely a matter of upside vs potential in weighing Murray vs some of the other dmen in this draft (Reilly and Dumba especially). I will say though, on Staal despite him going 12th, he very nearly was selected by the Canes at #3. Their scouting staff was quite literally split between taking Staal and Johnson. Karmanos wanted the more hyped player, so that's who the Canes ended up taking. Foolish move looking back at it now IMO.
Lets not talk foolish decisions, my Senators skipped over Staal much later for Brian Lee ......... my heart still weeps on that one.

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