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2012 Offseason Thread II: The Offseasoning

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05-28-2012, 11:33 PM
  #151
Mr Misty
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Putting aside whether Nash would allow a trade to Dallas, look at the teams that were interested in Nash (SJS, NYR, BOS) and the disappointing playoffs they all had. I expect a bidding war, and I would rather the Stars stay out of it.

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05-28-2012, 11:40 PM
  #152
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... the back end of his career? He'll be 28. This ought to be his prime, right?
Not saying you're wrong, but with the current NHL trends, it's not that far off.

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05-29-2012, 12:01 AM
  #153
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Originally Posted by glovesave_35 View Post
Do you want him in a Stars sweater?
If the trade cost isn't too insanely steep, definitely. There isn't a whole lot of difference between Nash and Parise, who everybody wants (including me). Nash may actually wind up being the cheaper option.

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05-29-2012, 01:38 AM
  #154
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
If the trade cost isn't too insanely steep, definitely. There isn't a whole lot of difference between Nash and Parise, who everybody wants (including me). Nash may actually wind up being the cheaper option.
Maybe not production wise but they're pretty much complete opposites as far as play styles go.

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05-29-2012, 06:56 AM
  #155
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Originally Posted by hairylikebear View Post
Maybe not production wise but they're pretty much complete opposites as far as play styles go.
Uhm... Not really?

I haven't watched Nash for a while, but IIRC, he plays more of a power forward's game with a ton of skill. Parise plays a similar game but with more speed. Parise is also prolly a bit better defensively.

Nash is a step down from Parise anyways. But looking at who His line mates have been throughout his career, it's amazing to think he even hits 30. If he were playing with Benn and Eriksson...

That said, I wouldn't offer more than Ott + Smith/Chiasson/Glennie + Both 2nds. But I think a 1st would have to go the other way too, especially looking at the Carter trade. I'm not sure I'm okay with giving up a pick we need so badly.

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05-29-2012, 09:36 AM
  #156
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They wanted Eriksson and Campbell as a base, so we'd be adding.

I'll take Eriksson over Nash 9 times out of 10.

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05-29-2012, 09:55 AM
  #157
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
... the back end of his career? He'll be 28. This ought to be his prime, right?
He's entering his prime on a trend of 40 to 33 to 32 to 30 goals. A guy entering his prime should have those numbers going the other direction. He'll be a 28 year old who hasn't hit 40 goals since he was 24.

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I'll take Eriksson over Nash 9 times out of 10.
Of course you would. Eriksson essentially produces an equal amount of offense, does a lot more without the puck, and costs a lot less.

I'm all for using the cap room to take on a bad contract, but there's no way the Stars should give up two roster players and what amounts to two first round picks in exchange for an overpaid, over-hyped guy still living off his his #1 pick status.

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05-29-2012, 10:58 AM
  #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairylikebear View Post
Maybe not production wise but they're pretty much complete opposites as far as play styles go.
I'm referring to their production, position, and point in their careers.
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Originally Posted by Troy McClure View Post
He's entering his prime on a trend of 40 to 33 to 32 to 30 goals. A guy entering his prime should have those numbers going the other direction. He'll be a 28 year old who hasn't hit 40 goals since he was 24.
That kind of thing is often correlated to team success. Columbus had almost 30 more points in the standings when Nash hit 40 last compared to this season. Put him on a better team with better players and I think you'll see a goal total closer to 40 than 30 once more.

What if we applied the same argument to Loui? His 36 goal season was 4 years ago now. 36, 29, 27, 26 -- doesn't that indicate a concerning downward trend when he ought to be entering his prime? Of course we know that's complete nonsense and that if anything he's gotten better.

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05-29-2012, 11:05 AM
  #159
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Goal scoring tends to peak at very early ages, while point production peaks later.

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05-29-2012, 01:08 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
I'm referring to their production, position, and point in their careers.
That kind of thing is often correlated to team success. Columbus had almost 30 more points in the standings when Nash hit 40 last compared to this season. Put him on a better team with better players and I think you'll see a goal total closer to 40 than 30 once more.
Maybe, but I'm not giving up the farm and an $8 million cap hit on the hopes that a guy on a downward production trend might get things back up closer to 40 goals. If it was one down year, then I'd listen, but this is going on a long time.

Also, don't overlook the other side of that correlation. Part of the reason Columbus had those extra points that season was probably partly due to Nash producing an extra 20 points of offense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
What if we applied the same argument to Loui? His 36 goal season was 4 years ago now. 36, 29, 27, 26 -- doesn't that indicate a concerning downward trend when he ought to be entering his prime? Of course we know that's complete nonsense and that if anything he's gotten better.
Loui is also roughly half of Nash's cap hit. I think what we're seeing is an indication that Loui's 36 goal year was an aberration. He's not likely to be a consistent 30 goal scorer, but that's okay because, unlike Nash, Loui is not paid like a superstar.

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05-29-2012, 01:44 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Troy McClure View Post
Maybe, but I'm not giving up the farm and an $8 million cap hit on the hopes that a guy on a downward production trend might get things back up closer to 40 goals. If it was one down year, then I'd listen, but this is going on a long time.
I wouldn't give up the farm, but I would give up the cap hit. If Nash shot his career shooting percentage this past season (which includes his career-low crappy percentage this year) he would've scored 36 goals and no one would be talking about a decline. The turnaround that's coming next season is easy to predict, much like predicting Ryder's resurgence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troy McClure View Post
Also, don't overlook the other side of that correlation. Part of the reason Columbus had those extra points that season was probably partly due to Nash producing an extra 20 points of offense.
Which is more likely: Rick Nash got fundamentally worse during his prime years, or the Columbus Blue Jackets got fundamentally worse? I'll pick the latter.
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Loui is also roughly half of Nash's cap hit. I think what we're seeing is an indication that Loui's 36 goal year was an aberration. He's not likely to be a consistent 30 goal scorer, but that's okay because, unlike Nash, Loui is not paid like a superstar.
OK, but you're not going to acquire a player like Loui who is payed like Loui. Nash is UFA age. He'd be getting this kind of money from someone regardless. He's not overpaid. He's not overrated or overhyped either judging by people's widespread attitudes toward him.

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05-29-2012, 01:52 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
If Nash shot his career shooting percentage this past season (which includes his career-low crappy percentage this year) he would've scored 36 goals and no one would be talking about a decline.
You're right. Instead of talking about a decline, they'd continue to talk about him in glowing terms that reflects his draft position more than his actual production.

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05-29-2012, 02:10 PM
  #163
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You're right. Instead of talking about a decline, they'd continue to talk about him in glowing terms that reflects his draft position more than his actual production.
Right, because those 270 goals over the past 8 years aren't particularly noteworthy on their own. I'm sure there are plenty of other players who have done that.

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05-29-2012, 02:40 PM
  #164
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Not sure why we're debating it, we all know the price to be paid is going to be too high. Howson's out of his mind.

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05-29-2012, 02:51 PM
  #165
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I have little to no doubt that Nash would score 40 pretty easily in our top 6. The talent is certainly there.

Howson is asking for the moon, but not expecting it. You might as well ask for an insane return if you're fielding offers for a guy like Nash. Start high, then go to a more reasonable return. And they're trying to avoid what happened with Kovy and Atlanta.
^ From what I read on the Columbus board.

It doesn't matter though, we don't have the pieces they're interested in. R. Smith/Chiasson/Glennie and Bachman is not enough for them to part with Nash, and they're the only real pieces they're interested in. That and our 1st, which I'm not okay with trading.

But if all it would take is R. Smith/Chiasson/Glennie + Bachman + 1st (which it won't, I can guarantee that offer has and will be beaten), then I'd probably consider it. Nash is just too good to not turn that down, and even though it might seem like a huge chunk of our future, it really isn't.

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05-29-2012, 03:27 PM
  #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piqued View Post
I wouldn't give up the farm, but I would give up the cap hit. If Nash shot his career shooting percentage this past season (which includes his career-low crappy percentage this year) he would've scored 36 goals and no one would be talking about a decline. The turnaround that's coming next season is easy to predict, much like predicting Ryder's resurgence.
Which is more likely: Rick Nash got fundamentally worse during his prime years, or the Columbus Blue Jackets got fundamentally worse? I'll pick the latter.
OK, but you're not going to acquire a player like Loui who is payed like Loui. Nash is UFA age. He'd be getting this kind of money from someone regardless. He's not overpaid. He's not overrated or overhyped either judging by people's widespread attitudes toward him.
Wish I could hit a 'like this post' button. Spot on.

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05-29-2012, 03:31 PM
  #167
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Is there like, some Nash to Dallas rumor going around? What's with it today? Here, the CBJ forum (that was me, though), and now in two places on the main forum.

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05-29-2012, 03:57 PM
  #168
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The Stars have a new owner and the cap room to be in any deal. You'll see the Stars lumped in a lot of rumors now whether there is real interest or not.

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05-29-2012, 04:54 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
That kind of thing is often correlated to team success. Columbus had almost 30 more points in the standings when Nash hit 40 last compared to this season. Put him on a better team with better players and I think you'll see a goal total closer to 40 than 30 once more.

What if we applied the same argument to Loui? His 36 goal season was 4 years ago now. 36, 29, 27, 26 -- doesn't that indicate a concerning downward trend when he ought to be entering his prime? Of course we know that's complete nonsense and that if anything he's gotten better.
I don't think there's much evidence that playing on a better team automatically inflates goal totals, because you end up with more high quality players competing for limited PP time and favourable ES matchups. Loui Eriksson in your example had his big breakout season that one year where everyone was hurt all season long and he was the only scoring option - that sounds alot like the circumstances Rick Nash has had in Columbus to me.

**At the very least, it's probable that most of us could think of just as many players that saw their production increase substantially after moving to a worse team for a variety of factors.

***but getting back to the point, sure top players in this league get paid a premium to score in the 40-50 goal range, but when you have to give up multiple prized assets in a trade to get that guy on your team it's just not worth it - there is literally 0 chance that Rick Nash provides any measurable amount of excess value over and above that salary he makes, and every chance that he performs well under the level you expect for that sort of compensation. It's a no upside deal.

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05-29-2012, 05:45 PM
  #170
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Right, because those 270 goals over the past 8 years aren't particularly noteworthy on their own. I'm sure there are plenty of other players who have done that.
Where does he rank amongst goal scorers over the past three seasons?

How about point scorers over the past three seasons? (If you're curious, Nash piled up fewer points than Eriksson over that time and barely outscored Mike Ribeiro.)


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05-29-2012, 05:51 PM
  #171
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Where does he rank amongst goal scorers over the past three seasons? How about point scorers over the past three seasons?
In '09-'10, he would've been #1 in goals on our team.

#2 in '10-'11 and '11-'12 behind Morrow and Ryder respectively.

And neither Morrow nor Ryder fit into our long term plan.

Points is different, as he hasn't had a major assets to help the past three years. He's mostly good for goals, but when you think about Columbus as a team, he pretty much has to create most of his own chances.

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05-29-2012, 06:21 PM
  #172
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Loui Eriksson in your example had his big breakout season that one year where everyone was hurt all season long and he was the only scoring option - that sounds alot like the circumstances Rick Nash has had in Columbus to me.
Eriksson also had a 20-something Ribeiro dishing him the puck during his 36 goal year.

I'm not the biggest Nash fan but to be honest I find him to be the most difficult player in the league to pinpoint just how good he really is. He's played for that **** organization for so long that there are no independent variables at play here. I don't know if we're going to draft a true difference maker in the 1st round this year. Maybe this would be a good time to use that pick to trade for a guy who fits a need and is very skilled. The length of the contract isn't ideal but if he plays like he's paid then it won't be a problem.

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05-29-2012, 08:00 PM
  #173
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Eriksson also had a 20-something Ribeiro dishing him the puck during his 36 goal year.

I'm not the biggest Nash fan but to be honest I find him to be the most difficult player in the league to pinpoint just how good he really is. He's played for that **** organization for so long that there are no independent variables at play here. I don't know if we're going to draft a true difference maker in the 1st round this year. Maybe this would be a good time to use that pick to trade for a guy who fits a need and is very skilled. The length of the contract isn't ideal but if he plays like he's paid then it won't be a problem.
Thinking about trading that 1st kills me inside (look at who we're likely to pick and my username and you'll know why), but that makes a lot of sense. Even Girgensons at his peak probably won't be as good as Nash. And judging by the Carter trade (bad example though), I think that'd be a major selling point for them.

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05-29-2012, 09:22 PM
  #174
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Da Costa for Robidas (maybe + a pick) sound fair?

We get rid of Robidas and add a center prospect buried under Turris. Ottawa fans didn't seem to object.

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05-29-2012, 09:29 PM
  #175
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Da Costa for Robidas (maybe + a pick) sound fair?

We get rid of Robidas and add a center prospect buried under Turris. Ottawa fans didn't seem to object.
I wouldn't add anything to Robidas in that trade. I don't know a whole lot about Da Costa but he's an unproven prospect who seems to have good but not elite potential.

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