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Blackhawks PDO's this season

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Old
05-23-2012, 03:25 PM
  #1
hawksfan50
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Blackhawks PDO's this season

PDO is a stat that simply measures team shooting% and save% while a player is on the on ice ---1000 is assigned as the league mean for the PDO stat...over the long-term there should be a regression to the mean ,so that players who are above the mean ina particular season are probably going to trend down to or below mean in future and vice versa ...the stat is heavily influenced by luck--lucky bounces go in some years more frequently and not so much in other years,who you are on the ice with a lot could change one year over the other as can their own luck with scoring andso shooting % ,similarly preventing goals depends on luck year over year as some years your goalie has better save5 when you are on than in other years and who you play with while on can influence quantity of shots against and effect scoring against differently year to year..IF a player however CONSISTENTLY manages to stay above the mean it means either he is the luckiest of hockey players OR somehow his own contributions CONSISTENTLY help his team be above average ..

THe PDO stats I've found for the Blackhawks (and other NHL teams) are listed on the www.behindthenet.ca website....


Interesting that in 5x5 play ONLY 5 bLACKHAWKS on the team with 20 or more GP were ABOVE the 1000 mean level !


Surprisingly PATRICK KANE ranked 5th best with a barely above average 1002 PDO
while the much maligned BRYAN BICKELL was 6th best at 995 ...and the always
assumed well above average "contributor" Jonathan Toews was ONLY 9th best amongst Hawks forwards at 993....VIKTOR STALBERG and ANDREW SHAW tied at 993
(12th and 13th best among the forwards ) and poor MICHAEL FROLIK was the worst at 970 ...

OF course we can HOPE that several of the 2/3 of our forwards below average for 5x5 PDO will "IMPROVE" by rising to or exceeding the mean and that the few (1/3) of our forwards above the mean 5x5 PDO will not drop to much towards or below the mean ...


Any --Q can take from the overal 1/3 better // 2/3 worse than the PDO mean that their is a lot of WORK to be done to improve the FORWARDS corps 5x5 PDO's next year...


If we take the forward group in 5x4 (ie. PP ) situation ---we find ANDREW SHAW topping the list at a 1158 PDO ....and in fact 11 of the 15 forwards have PDO's ABOVE the mean of 1000 for the entire league ....JONATHAN TOEWS ranked 5th
at 1092 and KANE was 7th among the forwards at 1021 ....Michael Frolik again ranked last in 15th place at just 667...

This looks omnious for our already maligned PP if the regression to the mean over time pprobability holds because we had 11/15 forwards ABOVE the league mean last year in 5x4 PP ---so with so many "probably" due to regress to the mean and so few 4/15 "probably" due to "improve" to or above the mean --we cannot expect our forward group as a whole to improve much on the 5x4 PP (I guess)...


As for the 4x5 (PK) ---the PDO shows (I nearly fell off my chair!) that PATRICK KANE was the best at a 1500 PDO (though his on ice save% was a league mean of 1000 on the dot ) --he was just lucky in shooting% either himself or from his buddies on ice with him in getting shorties...only 9 forwards with 20GP or more were given a 4x5 PDO stat (reflective that not every player is given a PK role) ..ANDREW SHAW was last in the 4x5 PDO with a 727...Michael Frolik with a 1008 PDO was only the 4th of 9 PK forwards 20 GP or more above the mean....AGAIN we can hope the majority (5/9)of those below the mean improve upwards towards or beyond it and that the 4 /9 above it do not drop too much to the mean or below it ...Ideally Q would like to see more above the mean in this stat..


WELL what about the D-men?


On the 4x5 PDO --we had 8 d--men with 20GP or more measured for the stat----DUNCAN KEITH led at 1110 ,SEABROOK next at 1047,HJALMARSSON next at 1019,LEPISTO next at 1000 ---the other 4 were below the league mean on this stat with NICK LEDDY last at a miserable 818...

Again we can HOPE (or expect?) the slackers below mean get luckier and rise to or above mean next year and conversely pray the 4 (or those remaining of the 4) anove it do not fall too far towrds the mean or below it..


ON the 5x4 (PP) --we find 6/7 of our d-men at or ABOVE the league mean of 1000...topping the list (again must have played 20GP or more) was (Again I fell of my chair) SAMI LEPISTO with a whopping 1250 of luck ....STEVE MONTADOR was next at 1177,ODUYA next at 1059,SEABROOK next at 1022,KEITH next at 1019 ,and HJALMARSSON next at 1000...LEDDY was last (7th) with a 953 --wellbelow the mean for the league.


So-- Leddy is due to "IMPROVE" up toward the mean this year? THe D-group quantity above the mean is bound to lose quantity to some regressiond down to or below the mean?

MORE mystifying--with so many (11/15 forwards at or above the mean in 5x4 and 6/7 d-men at or above the mean in 5x4 --HOW COME OUR MUCH MALIGNED PP was so bad? IT is a statistical mystery that does not seem to mske any sense..

In 5x5 play with the d-man group: again SAMI LEPISTO with a whopping 1032 led in PDO (don't re-sign him--he cannot be so lucky again this coming year?),SEABROOK was next at a barely above mean of 1007,followed by Keith at again a barely (FOR THE $$$) above mean of 1006....then 6 d-men BELOW the NHL mean of 1000: montador and Hjalmarsson tiedat 996 and Pduya next at 989 ,DYLAN OLSEN nextat 980,LEDDY next at 977 and O'DONNELL at the bottom of the barrrel at 975...

Again does this mean we rejoive that several of the 6 d-men blow the PDO mean for 5x5 play "SHOULD" get luckier and improve towrds or beyond the mean this season and hope that not too many of the 4 d-men above the mean in this stat will "fall" down towards the mean or below it...


DOES ALL THIS MEAN LEDDY is in for a whopping improvement of a year--OR does it indicate those hyping him as special are INSANE?

What does it all mean?

Well when we combine for all positions we find DAN CARCILLO's 1054 PDO led the team in 5x5 play (20GP or more)--but he got hurt-obviously we missed our 5x5 PDO leader--but can he sustain it --or will he revert back to mean?

LEPISTO's 1032 PDO 5x5 was next HOSSA was 3rd at 1015 ,SHARP at 1014, KRUGER at 1010, SEABROOK at 1007.KEITH 1006,amd KANE at 1002 .....ONLY 8/24 position players with 20GP or more were ABOVE LEAGUE MEAN for this vital 5x5 stat..Q cannot be pleased at alll with such a putrid measure of TEAM "effectiveness" in 5x5
...the much maligned HJALMARSSON and BICKELL were 10th and 11th at 996 and 995 respectively (MONTADOR was also 996) but big bucks Capn' serious was seriously NOT THAT EFFECTIVE with his below mean number at only 993 (given his $$$ we expect well above average stats in total effectiveness)..
LEDDY's 977 was 21st /24 for this 5x5 PDO stat for al position players...

Finall when we look at the 4x5 (PK) for all position players we find Kane's exception (or totally lucky) whjopping 1500 PDO leads the list..next is DAVE BOLLAND's 1215 ...then KEITH's 1110 and SEABROOK's 1047...HOSSA at 1023 and HJALMARSSON at 1019 ...FROLIK at 1008 and LEPISTO right at the 1000 league mean...TOEWS was next at a disappointing 980 and SHARP at 956,O'DONNELL at 919 --then everyone else below 900 with LEDDY and SHAW the last 2 of the 17PK'ers in 4x5 at 838 and 737...


I guess from this we : 1. Never use rookies to kill penalties... 2. expect huge improvements in Leddy and Shaw to trend up over time to the PK mean or better...give TOEWS a kick in the butt to get his PDO's above the league mean numbers for the stat...

And finally --don't trade Hjalmarson--actually quite around "mean" for the money---stop maliging Kane --at least he was above the mean in the PDO categories--OR it means he was just lucky and he regresses to the mean as time goes on-so trade him before it gets worse?

WHATdoes it all mean? Answer: Q has a lot of work to do...Leddy can improve lots OR prove he really is as bad as his PDO stats say....How can Toews be below average in any stat--yet.... Kane did so well in the PDO stats by just playng to his ability for a few shifts a game and mailing in the other shifts and by showing up in only the first 15 games ,taking a long MIA break then returning to "normal" the ennd of February till season end???? Imagine if he played hard all year? HIS PDO stats would go through the roof! BUt alas playing hard the whole year is tooo much to expect from him...


Last edited by hawksfan50: 05-23-2012 at 03:39 PM.
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Old
05-23-2012, 03:27 PM
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Bubba88
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what is this?

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05-23-2012, 03:29 PM
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why did I even open this thread?

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05-23-2012, 03:29 PM
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beCAUSE you got TRICKED into thinking IT was a decent THREAD.

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05-23-2012, 03:41 PM
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hawksfan50
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sorry --i had typed in the wrong website but edited my post starting this thread to the correct website showing the stats www.behindthenet.ca...

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05-23-2012, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Rexy View Post
why did I even open this thread?
you took the words right out of my mouth.

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05-23-2012, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Rexy View Post
why did I even open this thread?
Exactly. Should've saw it was Hawksfan50 and passed.


Trim it down a bit...

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Old
05-23-2012, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawksfan50 View Post
sorry --i had typed in the wrong website but edited my post starting this thread to the correct website showing the stats www.behindthenet.ca...
Who are you and what are you doing replying in a hawksfan50 thread?

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Old
05-23-2012, 04:06 PM
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hawksfan50
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BTW--in all the talk of SUTER going UFA and the Hawks could be a suitor for SUTER ( sorry i had to pun) I note that RYAN SUTER's PDO stats were :

5x5 : 1019 5x4: 1080 and 4x5: 1027


Remember Hjalmarson was 6th overall (all positions) on the Hawks at 1019 in PK --KEITH was 3rd overall on the Hawks at 1110 on the pk--THEY did not have the advantage of a better goalie (RINNE) in net--so I expect SUTER on the HAWKS PK will not be as ABOVE MEAN as he was in NASH...


ON the other hand SUTER was 1080 in the 5x4 (PP) ---he probably helps our PP if he maintains that -he could maintain it because our vanted forwards were in vast majority above mean on the PP --it was our D that did not have high enough PDO's there --so we expect SUTER would help us on the PP --though if luck goes against him he could get unluckier this season and trend down towardthe mean...

His 5x5 stat was only 1019 ---despite Rinne --but we scored more than NADSH 5x5
so maybe thisstat goes up for SUTER if we land him.

THe questionis : IS he worth the likely $$$ required to sign him or how much of a discount does he take IF he wants to play in CHI?


MAYBE we are better off passing on him and waiting tilnEXT SEAON after this to try for WEBER (if NASH refuses to give him the moon?)

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05-23-2012, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by IU Hawks fan View Post
Exactly. Should've saw it was Hawksfan50 and passed.


Trim it down a bit...
need to start looking at the thread creator before I click on it blindly. This is my own fault.

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05-23-2012, 04:43 PM
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beCAUSE you got TRICKED into thinking IT was a decent THREAD.
I lol'd

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05-23-2012, 04:47 PM
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I was actually coming into this thread 100% prepared to read the entire OP.. then I scrolled down once, then twice.. and thought.. "nahhhh".

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05-23-2012, 05:05 PM
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need to start looking at the thread creator before I click on it blindly. This is my own fault.
Mine as well.

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05-23-2012, 05:10 PM
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Originally Posted by massivegoonery View Post
Who are you and what are you doing replying in a hawksfan50 thread?
Three posts in the same thread.

Must be a result of that solar eclipse a few nights ago. We've somehow entered the Twilight Zone.

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05-23-2012, 06:04 PM
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My head hurts.

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05-23-2012, 07:13 PM
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Gimme the cliff notes, gorgeous.

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05-23-2012, 07:47 PM
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05-23-2012, 09:31 PM
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WOW...my brain has a black spot right now. I CAN'T even remember what thread I am in anymore. Something about a UFO or SOMETHING...

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Old
05-23-2012, 10:43 PM
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MurrayBannerman
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WHAT'S A PDO AND WHERE CAN I BUY ONE?!!?!??!?!?!?! ahhhh!!!

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05-23-2012, 11:46 PM
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Gimme the cliff notes, gorgeous.
something tells me his cliffs would still be a wall of text.

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Old
05-23-2012, 11:58 PM
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something tells me his cliffs would still be a wall of text.
They're even longer, somehow.

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Old
05-24-2012, 01:50 AM
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I was actually coming into this thread 100% prepared to read the entire OP.. then I scrolled down once, then twice.. and thought.. "nahhhh".
I thought the same. Wanted to give him a chance this time

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05-24-2012, 05:56 AM
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Well, I read through it all. Near as I can tell, the stat seems to be about "luck" in the game of hockey.

1000 = average luck
>1000 = above average luck
<1000 = unlucky.

There you have it...the abridged version. Unless I'm misunderstanding that wall of text, it's a BS stat if there ever was one. Our horrendous power play vs the supposed much greater than 1000 players on the PP show that the stat is bogus.

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05-24-2012, 12:54 PM
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Well, I read through it all. Near as I can tell, the stat seems to be about "luck" in the game of hockey.

1000 = average luck
>1000 = above average luck
<1000 = unlucky.

There you have it...the abridged version. Unless I'm misunderstanding that wall of text, it's a BS stat if there ever was one. Our horrendous power play vs the supposed much greater than 1000 players on the PP show that the stat is bogus.
do you want that 45 minutes of your life back?

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Old
05-24-2012, 05:38 PM
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