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Mckeen's First Round Mock Draft on Rotoworld

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Old
05-27-2012, 12:56 PM
  #101
Hardyvan123
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Originally Posted by ottawah View Post
I think from everything I read it is quite large. I from what I have seen even larger.

Most scouts are now projecting Murray to be a number 2/3 D man, not even a teams franchise d man. That makes it a huge drop from a franchise winger to a non franchise D. If this was the difference between a Hall and Sequin I would say choose Murray in an instance, but its just not that close. I think Button has Murray as something like the 6th best D man in this draft, and while I do not always agree with Button, I think it goes to show at the very least that Murray has done nothing to separate himself from the pack.
Button is plain wrong IMO and what scouts are you talking about?

Edit: button has Murray 2nd in his mock draft so I have no idea what you are talking about.

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=62451

Murray has #1 Dman written all over him, in fact many scouts felt he could ahve played in the NHL this year, he is already that good defensively and sound positionally.

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05-27-2012, 01:15 PM
  #102
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****ing horrible mock draft

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05-27-2012, 01:22 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Button is plain wrong IMO and what scouts are you talking about?

Edit: button has Murray 2nd in his mock draft so I have no idea what you are talking about.

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=62451

Murray has #1 Dman written all over him, in fact many scouts felt he could ahve played in the NHL this year, he is already that good defensively and sound positionally.
NHL readiness and potential no. 1 D-man are two different things. Murray plays a solid game but the question a lot of people have is warranted: is he good enough to put him imprint on many a game? I'm not sure I can say yes. I believe Murray will either be a great choice to lead the second pairing or compliment a number one on the top-pairing. I do not see him being a guy who sets the tone like a Doughty or a Pietrangelo.

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05-27-2012, 04:50 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by Endersoldier View Post
NHL readiness and potential no. 1 D-man are two different things. Murray plays a solid game but the question a lot of people have is warranted: is he good enough to put him imprint on many a game? I'm not sure I can say yes. I believe Murray will either be a great choice to lead the second pairing or compliment a number one on the top-pairing. I do not see him being a guy who sets the tone like a Doughty or a Pietrangelo.
Okay, if that's opinion everyone has one, but don't go saying that scouts are saying something if you can't back it up.

Your direct quote was that most scouts have him as a 2/3 Dman and it seems like that only your opinion as I haven't seen any scouts or scouting services reporting that.


BTW have you seen him play? I have 5 or 6 times from the time he was 15 in the WHL you could see his skillset and whatever team gets him is getting a stud guy for years to come.

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05-27-2012, 04:54 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Button is plain wrong IMO and what scouts are you talking about?

Edit: button has Murray 2nd in his mock draft so I have no idea what you are talking about.

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=62451

Murray has #1 Dman written all over him, in fact many scouts felt he could ahve played in the NHL this year, he is already that good defensively and sound positionally.
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

Button has Murray ranked as the 7th best D man in the draft

And their if a difference between a mock draft where you try and predict and rankings in where you think they will eventually be.

I've even said i would take Murray as the first D man in the draft, but most of the info I see points to him not being close to Yakapov as a prospect. Button is the extreme example, but he sees a lot more of the guys than many people do, so at least I'll respect his opinions even when I do not agree with them.

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05-27-2012, 04:58 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Okay, if that's opinion everyone has one, but don't go saying that scouts are saying something if you can't back it up.

Your direct quote was that most scouts have him as a 2/3 Dman and it seems like that only your opinion as I haven't seen any scouts or scouting services reporting that.


BTW have you seen him play? I have 5 or 6 times from the time he was 15 in the WHL you could see his skillset and whatever team gets him is getting a stud guy for years to come.
I of course only get to see him on TV. I got to watch him be on the ice for 70% of the goals scored against team Canada through the U18 and U20 last year.

Its a small sample, but for me when he played the tough competition in the big games, he did not put in a solid defensive effort.

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05-27-2012, 05:11 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Okay, if that's opinion everyone has one, but don't go saying that scouts are saying something if you can't back it up.

Your direct quote was that most scouts have him as a 2/3 Dman and it seems like that only your opinion as I haven't seen any scouts or scouting services reporting that.


BTW have you seen him play? I have 5 or 6 times from the time he was 15 in the WHL you could see his skillset and whatever team gets him is getting a stud guy for years to come.
One example is in THN Draft issue, where he is pegged at number four but there were comparisons to Karl Alzner and Nick Schultz. I disagree with these comparisons, but I generally get the drift of what they're saying: he's a safe player who does good work but never takes over a game.

I think this is pretty true when I saw him playing against the Giants in January. Simple game, excellent skater, but nothing jaw dropping. His awareness is very good, he makes smart plays. At the WJC, he did not prove me different. Solid, except for that horrible game against Russia.

If I had to compare him to someone in the NHL, I would say Jay Bouwmeester. There are a few differences, of course: Bouwmeester is very big, while Murray seems to be a better character guy and leader. Both impress with their skating, and they both look like they know what they're doing. Perhaps the difference between no. 1 and no. 2/3 is more than just tools: some call it the killer instinct, some describe it as a je-ne-sais-pas-quoi. Either way, he does not seem to have that. If I'm picking as high as top-5, then I want someone who does have that "killer instinct." Perhaps he will prove me wrong, as well as several others who share my opinion, but as it stands I do not see a No. 1 D-man. However, I do think he can step into the NHL next year and be a contributor.

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05-27-2012, 05:14 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by ottawah View Post
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=49649

Button has Murray ranked as the 7th best D man in the draft

And their if a difference between a mock draft where you try and predict and rankings in where you think they will eventually be.

I've even said i would take Murray as the first D man in the draft, but most of the info I see points to him not being close to Yakapov as a prospect. Button is the extreme example, but he sees a lot more of the guys than many people do, so at least I'll respect his opinions even when I do not agree with them.

Wow Buttons rankings are almost as wacky as the mock draft, there is no way 5 Dmen get picked before Murray this year.

And does anyone really take a flyer on Subban in the top 10 picks that would really be reaching.

Also Teravainen at 5 is really projecting and hoping that he fills out.

A great talent but how is he going to play at a heavier weight?

Button in the video clip on TSN thinks there are 11 players better that Murray in this years draft, well I'm willing to bet that Murray is in the top 6 in terms of impact of the top 12 picks period.

For a guy that favors centers and Dmen over wingers I really have no idea how Murray could fall so low on his ranking list unless he was going for the sensational factor that week on TSN

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05-27-2012, 05:18 PM
  #109
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Good god, that's poorly-written.

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05-27-2012, 05:36 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Okay, if that's opinion everyone has one, but don't go saying that scouts are saying something if you can't back it up.

Your direct quote was that most scouts have him as a 2/3 Dman and it seems like that only your opinion as I haven't seen any scouts or scouting services reporting that.


BTW have you seen him play? I have 5 or 6 times from the time he was 15 in the WHL you could see his skillset and whatever team gets him is getting a stud guy for years to come.
Direct quote from McKenzie's rankings (which are deciphered by "a compilation based on input from various scouts around the National Hockey League," which is - IIRC - made up of 10 scouts, 7/10 which gave Nail a 1st place vote at the start of the year, 9/10 which gave him a 1st place vote in Feb).

On Ryan Murray - also from the Feb rankings (because there was no write up for his lottery edition).

NHL upside: A No. 2 or No. 3 defenceman with leadership qualities who will be relied upon to shut down team's top players, kill penalties and protect leads.

Does this mean all 10 scouts think this? No, but I'd have to think he wouldn't have written it without at least half of them feeling this way. So there you go, NHL scouts.

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05-27-2012, 05:47 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
Direct quote from McKenzie's rankings (which are deciphered by "a compilation based on input from various scouts around the National Hockey League," which is - IIRC - made up of 10 scouts, 7/10 which gave Nail a 1st place vote at the start of the year, 9/10 which gave him a 1st place vote in Feb).

On Ryan Murray - also from the Feb rankings (because there was no write up for his lottery edition).

NHL upside: A No. 2 or No. 3 defenceman with leadership qualities who will be relied upon to shut down team's top players, kill penalties and protect leads.

Does this mean all 10 scouts think this? No, but I'd have to think he wouldn't have written it without at least half of them feeling this way. So there you go, NHL scouts.
Well that's something for sure and I'll have to agree to disagree with them on the case of Murray.

I'm thinking that maybe they expect him to dominate in the W on an extremely weak team where his role is defense 1st. In the u18 worlds in 11 he showed how good he can be if given the role (which the NHL team drafting would do IMO).

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05-27-2012, 05:49 PM
  #112
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The Oilers drafting Murray is just a Columbus/Montreal fan's fantasy.

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05-27-2012, 06:15 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I doubt that teams would ask your asking price since the gap between a guy like Nail and Murray isn't very large at all.


Passed on Seguin for Hall? There was no clear #1 guy in that year and Hall has developed quite nicely.

I think Edmonton fans need to realize that it doesn't matter how many top end potential forwards you have teams need to have strong defenses and puck movers on the back end, something Edmonton really lacks.

If they end up taking Murray and signing a defensive free agent the team will be on it's way, if they take Nail they will be okay too but still need to fill the hole and desperate need on the back end.
I think you missed the point.

We passed on a centre and a defenseman the last 2 years to take the guy we thought was the best player, so we will take the guy at the top our list no matter how much we need defense.

No sane Oiler fan believes the defense doesn't need serious work, I just would be shocked if it was addressed with the #1 pick.

All I know going forward is that every single scouting service, insider, or scout we have heard talk publicly has said Nail is #1, so to give up the chance to choose him seems like it would cost a lot.

And that asking price has been confirmed by both our head scout an president.

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05-27-2012, 06:20 PM
  #114
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There are much better ways to find decent d-men without giving up the 1st overall pick. People seem to think that's what they need to give up to get a decent d-man.

A lot of excellent defensemen have been traded in the last ten years. As far as I know, the 1st overall pick hasn't been involved in any of them.

Taking anyone other than the consensus number one pick doesn't make any sense for the franchise.
Agree 100%.

Since the lock-out

2005 NHL draft
First Dman taken: Jack Johnson, 2nd overall
Better Dmen: Staal 12th, Vlasic 35th, Letang 62nd, Yandle 105th

2006 NHL draft
First Dman taken: Erik Johnson, 1st overall
Better Dmen: None, but a poor year in general for Dmen

2007 NHL draft
First Dman taken: Hickey 4th overall, but the list would be too long, so we'll say Alzner 5th
Better Dmen: McDonagh 12th, Shattenkirk 14th, Subban 43rd

2008 NHL draft
First Dman taken: Doughty 2nd overall
Better Dmen: Debatable, but I'll say Pietrangelo 4th, Karlsson 15th

2009 NHL draft
First Dman taken: Hedman 2nd overall
Better Dmen taken: OEL 6th, argument could be made for Kulikov @ 14th

2010 NHL draft
First Dman taken: Erik Gudbranson 3rd overall
Better Dmen taken: Fowler 12th

That's not to say any of those Dmen (outside of Hickey) aren't impact players, but it would appear for Dmen its a coinflip whether they remain the best Dman from their draft years later. For forwards though....
05 - Crosby 1st overall and best
06 - Staal 2nd OA, Toews, Backstrom and Giroux better for sure, Kessel debatable
07 - Kane 1st overall and best (Benn may make this a debate in a few years)
08 - Stamkos 1st overall and best
09 - JT 1st overall and best
10- Hall 1st overall, case can be made for Skinner and Seguin

Bottom line, forwards are much easier to predict.

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05-27-2012, 06:38 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Well that's something for sure and I'll have to agree to disagree with them on the case of Murray.

I'm thinking that maybe they expect him to dominate in the W on an extremely weak team where his role is defense 1st. In the u18 worlds in 11 he showed how good he can be if given the role (which the NHL team drafting would do IMO).
I don't think scouts are basing anything off of an expectation to dominate in the dub, they're smarter than that. It is more a case of his actual strengths - which are many - but none in the mould of a true #1 Dman (ie a game changer). I tried to follow him as much as possible as I thought for sure the Oil would be picking in the 2-5 range and he'd be a no-brainer in that spot. Some fellow Oiler fans followed some Silvertips blogs and what makes Murray's numbers on a horrible team look even better was that for more than half the season he was paired with a 16 yr old rook. His strengths breakdown like this (and I'm sure you'll agree):

- Excellent skater

- Excellent positioning and reading/anticipating the play

- Excellent attitude and leadership (will definitely be a captain someday)

Who wouldn't want a player like that? But he's average size with little to no aggressiveness and doesn't have a big shot. That's not to say he won't become a #1, but it doesn't leave scouts drooling like a Doughty does, hence why the pre-draft predictions have him as a 2/3. I think he'll be excellent and that there's no way CBJ passes on him at #2.

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05-27-2012, 07:52 PM
  #116
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Ugg, Flyers taking Wilson. I'll be sooo pissed. Thats the kind of player the team would take though. Can hit hard but no offensive ability.
I think he is the type of player they would take after the first. He doesn't fit the mold of their typical first rounder (Carter, Richards, Giroux, Couturier, JVR, Sbisa, Gagne, etc) so I hope they wouldn't be that stupid. But yeah I'm with you. I'm basically ABW (Anyone but Wilson) at this point.

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05-28-2012, 12:40 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
I don't think scouts are basing anything off of an expectation to dominate in the dub, they're smarter than that. It is more a case of his actual strengths - which are many - but none in the mould of a true #1 Dman (ie a game changer). I tried to follow him as much as possible as I thought for sure the Oil would be picking in the 2-5 range and he'd be a no-brainer in that spot. Some fellow Oiler fans followed some Silvertips blogs and what makes Murray's numbers on a horrible team look even better was that for more than half the season he was paired with a 16 yr old rook. His strengths breakdown like this (and I'm sure you'll agree):

- Excellent skater

- Excellent positioning and reading/anticipating the play

- Excellent attitude and leadership (will definitely be a captain someday)

Who wouldn't want a player like that? But he's average size with little to no aggressiveness and doesn't have a big shot. That's not to say he won't become a #1, but it doesn't leave scouts drooling like a Doughty does, hence why the pre-draft predictions have him as a 2/3. I think he'll be excellent and that there's no way CBJ passes on him at #2.
While I agree that Edmonton will probably take Nail, barring some kind of trade, Murray actually has an excellent shot and can rush the puck very effectively.

I understand how a guy like Doughty woes the scouts but Murray has better hockey sense and positioning more like Lidstrom.

I just wonder how Edmonton is going to fix their back end because the reality is that free agents aren't fighting each other to get to Edmonton 1st and no matter how many top end forwards the Oilers collect the recent trend in the NHL shows that teams need good mobile defenseman and Edmonton is years away from that right now.

Don't get me wrong here I'm not trolling as a Canucks fan, I'm more a fan of the game of hockey per say and my comments are from a hockey standpoint and what I think Edmonton needs to build a successful team.

who is going to coach the Oilers this year anyways, the way they treated Renney might have some potential guys wary.

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05-28-2012, 01:16 AM
  #118
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While I agree that Edmonton will probably take Nail, barring some kind of trade, Murray actually has an excellent shot and can rush the puck very effectively.

I understand how a guy like Doughty woes the scouts but Murray has better hockey sense and positioning more like Lidstrom.

I just wonder how Edmonton is going to fix their back end because the reality is that free agents aren't fighting each other to get to Edmonton 1st and no matter how many top end forwards the Oilers collect the recent trend in the NHL shows that teams need good mobile defenseman and Edmonton is years away from that right now.

Don't get me wrong here I'm not trolling as a Canucks fan, I'm more a fan of the game of hockey per say and my comments are from a hockey standpoint and what I think Edmonton needs to build a successful team.

who is going to coach the Oilers this year anyways, the way they treated Renney might have some potential guys wary.
Coaches will be lining up to be potentially coach a group including Eberle, Hall, Yakupov, and RNH.

Tom was treated just fine here, but he coached a team to last, last, and 2nd last in 3 years, head coach for the last 2 of those 3 years.

He still had like 5 months before the season to find a new job and no vacant coaching jobs had been filled, which usually doesn't start happening until June...people are acting like we let him go in September and he had to find a new job weeks before the season.

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05-28-2012, 01:36 AM
  #119
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While I agree that Edmonton will probably take Nail, barring some kind of trade, Murray actually has an excellent shot and can rush the puck very effectively.

I understand how a guy like Doughty woes the scouts but Murray has better hockey sense and positioning more like Lidstrom.

I just wonder how Edmonton is going to fix their back end because the reality is that free agents aren't fighting each other to get to Edmonton 1st and no matter how many top end forwards the Oilers collect the recent trend in the NHL shows that teams need good mobile defenseman and Edmonton is years away from that right now.

Don't get me wrong here I'm not trolling as a Canucks fan, I'm more a fan of the game of hockey per say and my comments are from a hockey standpoint and what I think Edmonton needs to build a successful team.

who is going to coach the Oilers this year anyways, the way they treated Renney might have some potential guys wary.
I think the Oilers are going to try to build a defense with 6 Top 4 guys. Smid and Petry are young and getting better. They're essentially Top 4s now. N.Schultz is also definitely a reliable Top 4. If Whitney can recover well this season, he's a Top 4.

So the Oilers just need to add 2 Top 4 defenders. If they can trade for a Top 4 guy and sign one in free agency (Wideman, Jackman, etc), their defense will be at least serviceable.

With good coaching, a group of solid, but not exceptional defenders can get you pretty far (Carolina 2006, New Jersey 2012).

Of course you need hot goaltending too, but every team needs that to win the cup.

Anyway, I see no chance the Oilers will take Murray 1st overall, because it means they would be passing on the more valuable asset to take a player that won't even make a significant impact for the next few years.

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05-28-2012, 01:39 AM
  #120
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Murray now has hockey sense and positioning like Lidstrom?

Respect lost for some posters.

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05-28-2012, 02:05 AM
  #121
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ive been saying this for months now. the oilers secretly want murray, but they are desparately trying to dupe some team into trading up

so far teams havent falling for the oilers talk and eventually they will realize that the other teams arent fools and they will lower their demands to more reasonable levels.

if no one budges though the oilers will be stuck taking Murray at number 1 and that will be that.......oiler fans are just buying into the talk that there GM is using to try and bluff someone into letting edmonton have their cake and eating it too, but I think the other teams are on to Tambellini, and after 3 straight #1 picks nobody wants to do him any favors

oiler fans have been sold a bill of goods and they bought into it, but if nobody blinks, they will be shocked when Murray goes #1, and then they'll be upset, but thats how Tambellini has chosen to play his hand

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05-28-2012, 09:03 PM
  #122
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ive been saying this for months now. the oilers secretly want murray, but they are desparately trying to dupe some team into trading up

so far teams havent falling for the oilers talk and eventually they will realize that the other teams arent fools and they will lower their demands to more reasonable levels.

if no one budges though the oilers will be stuck taking Murray at number 1 and that will be that.......oiler fans are just buying into the talk that there GM is using to try and bluff someone into letting edmonton have their cake and eating it too, but I think the other teams are on to Tambellini, and after 3 straight #1 picks nobody wants to do him any favors

oiler fans have been sold a bill of goods and they bought into it, but if nobody blinks, they will be shocked when Murray goes #1, and then they'll be upset, but thats how Tambellini has chosen to play his hand
Similar to how we were upset when we took Seguin over Hall? Or how we took Larsson over RNH? Oh wait...

Listen, Oiler fans have heard it all before, how we secretly want a lesser player and are trying to get massive overpayment to trade down.

Fact of the matter is it has never happaned nor have we ever wanted to move down, why would this year be any different?

I'd like to think I'm about 99% sure we will draft Yakupov, but am willing to admit I am wrong if some sort of insanity shows itself.

Will you come back and let everyone tell you how wrong you were if we simply take the best player like we have done numerous times before?

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05-28-2012, 09:20 PM
  #123
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ive been saying this for months now. the oilers secretly want murray, but they are desparately trying to dupe some team into trading up

so far teams havent falling for the oilers talk and eventually they will realize that the other teams arent fools and they will lower their demands to more reasonable levels.
So they secretly want Murray, but are desperately trying to trade the pick? Think about that very carefully...

And teams haven't fallen for it yet? You do realize, don't you, that even if a trade was agreed to it wouldn't be done until the draft?

Your little theory doesn't even make sense.

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05-29-2012, 12:06 AM
  #124
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Murray now has hockey sense and positioning like Lidstrom?

Respect lost for some posters.
Perhaps my thoughts weren't clear but in the sentence you are referring to his (Murray's) hockey sense and positioning is more like Lidstrom than doughty who has incredible tools.

I thought it was clear by using the phrase more like Lidstrom, didn't say exactly like or even like.

I hope that is more clear now.

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05-29-2012, 01:06 AM
  #125
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Originally Posted by Seachd View Post
So they secretly want Murray, but are desperately trying to trade the pick? Think about that very carefully...

And teams haven't fallen for it yet? You do realize, don't you, that even if a trade was agreed to it wouldn't be done until the draft?

Your little theory doesn't even make sense.
No, it makes perfect sense. Edmonton wants Murray, but they figure they can dupe someone into paying through the nose to move up. Then they get to add more pieces, and actually mean it when they say "we got the guy we wanted all along". Obviously, they can't move down very far; Murray probably would fall no lower than 4th under any circumstances.

I still think that we'll see a Columbus/Edmonton flip that involves no real players or prospects of consequence going from one side to another. No Johansen, no Savard, no Jenner...it'll be "change of scenery" types and nothing else.

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