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Old
05-27-2012, 05:49 PM
  #226
Finlandia WOAT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post

I wouldn't. Players, regardless of when they started in the NHL, often break out in their early-to-mid-20s.

Staal's defensive game just happened to be refined enough to earn him an NHL spot right off the bat
How many players can you name off the top of your head that broke out after playing 6 years in the League?

He can improve his game, but after more than half a decade in the League, it is unreasonable to expect that what you see is not what you are going to get. Even if this proves latter to be untrue, it still affects Staal's current value.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
That's a straw man. Staal was on pace for 50 ES points this year playing with Dupuis and Sullivan. 45 ES points is a low-ball, all things considered.

There's little reason to think Staal couldn't put up ~50 ES points and ~15 PP points in another situation.
I'm interested to know why you think my argument is strawman. The only thing that annoys me more than people using strawman arguments is people that claim that you are making one (and ironically, said claim is usually a strawman itself).

Staal, outside of this previous year , is good for roughly 40 ES points (and even this year, he was "on pace for". He did not achieve it). 40 ES points isn't a lowball for Staal: it's his norm. Outside of last year, .5 PPG pace was Staal's average. I would say that 3 out of the last 4 seasons is more than "little reason".

And every year in the League, he is good for roughly 6 PP points a year. Here is a chart (from NHL.com):

Jordan Staal

Year ES Pts GP PP Pts PP ToI
06-07 27 81 6 1:12
07-08 20 82 7 1:31
08-09 39 82 6 2:19
09-10 41 82 5 1:54
10-11 21 42 7 3:09
11-12 38 62 7 1:59

So to match Mike Richards' breakout season, he is going to have to score another 10 ES points and another 15 PP points. I can see the ES points happening, but the PP? I doubt it. Especially considering that he is already averaging roughly 20 minutes a night playing in all situations.

And Staal is not close to the PP producer that Richards' is. Mike Richards had three consecutive years scoring 30+ PP points. In 08-09, Richards played a minute more than Staal on the PP and outscored him there by 25 points! In 09-10, Richards played a minute and 15 seconds more and outscored Staal again by 25 points!

So forgive my skepticism when it is pretty obvious that he is not the PP producer to match Mike Richards.

Of course, this ignores the fact that Staal has 1 YEAR left on his contract, while Mike Richards had 9.


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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
If not, then it's an easy no.
That's fine, but if Staal does get traded, he is not getting what Richards got, for the reasons listed above.

Staal has the potential to be the impact player that Richards is, but Richards actually does it. And GM's are not going to give up a king's ransom based on potential alone. People vastly overstate how much potential is actually valued by GM's on this board.

You can't try and sell Staal as a 65+ point producer when he has never broken 50.

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Old
05-27-2012, 05:51 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by H a w k s View Post
Who is running Bolland out of town? Jesse Rogers? The guy that thought the hawks were going to trade for Jeff finger? That guy?
Quite a few threads have popped up this year about the Hawks needing retooled. Lack of depth on D, no legit #2C. Bolland was used quite a bit as a piece. Makes a hell of a lot more sense if ur getting a center back than moving a top 4 D or Kane, Sharp, or Hossa.

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05-27-2012, 06:05 PM
  #228
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That's fine, but if Staal does get traded, he is not getting what Richards got, for the reasons listed above.

Staal has the potential to be the impact player that Richards is, but Richards actually does it. And GM's are not going to give up a king's ransom based on potential alone. People vastly overstate how much potential is actually valued by GM's on this board.

You can't try and sell Staal as a 65+ point producer when he has never broken 50.
GM's value players from more than a production standpoint. Their playoff resume, skillset, physicality, size, age, work ethic, defense. Staal has all those in spades.

No doubt if Staal had hit 65-70 Pts this year, his value would be even higher. But Staal is realizing his offensive potential and GM's have the last two seasons to base that on. Not a small
Sample size. Let alone arguably being the best player at ES/SH from either team this past postseason.

GM's will pay up or he won't be traded. I can promise you Shero won't settle.


Last edited by mpp9: 05-27-2012 at 06:32 PM.
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Old
05-27-2012, 06:22 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Captain Tripps View Post
How many players can you name off the top of your head that broke out after playing 6 years in the League?

He can improve his game, but after more than half a decade in the League, it is unreasonable to expect that what you see is not what you are going to get. Even if this proves latter to be untrue, it still affects Staal's current value.
Lecavalier, Thornton, Bertuzzi, Doan, Marleau, the Sedins.

Not coincidentally, almost all of them were high draft picks who came into the NHL right after the draft.

Quote:
Staal, outside of this previous year , is good for roughly 40 ES points (and even this year, he was "on pace for". He did not achieve it). 40 ES points isn't a lowball for Staal: it's his norm. Outside of last year, .5 PPG pace was Staal's average. I would say that 3 out of the last 4 seasons is more than "little reason".
The problem is that you're talking about the "norm" for a player based on his 18-22 year old seasons. I'd be curious to know if you base norms for most players on how they produce between 18-22.

Quote:
And every year in the League, he is good for roughly 6 PP points a year. Here is a chart (from NHL.com):
Charts are nice. Except they lack the context that would illustrate Staal's PP time is for the last 30 seconds with the likes of Kennedy, Cooke, and Niskanen, and I was explicit in stating that I projected those PP totals for him in another situation.

Quote:
Of course, this ignores the fact that Staal has 1 YEAR left on his contract, while Mike Richards had 9.
The per annum is nice, but that crazy length wasn't necessarily a plus for every bidding team, especially considering the terms he left Philly on.

More does not always equal better.

Quote:
Staal has the potential to be the impact player that Richards is, but Richards actually does it. And GM's are not going to give up a king's ransom based on potential alone. People vastly overstate how much potential is actually valued by GM's on this board.

You can't try and sell Staal as a 65+ point producer when he has never broken 50.
Staal actually does it too. Over the past 2 years, reg. season and playoffs, Staal has scored 92 points in 117 games, which works out to an average of 64 points per 82 games.

That's not potential, that's his production over the equivalent of a season and a half.

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Old
05-27-2012, 06:37 PM
  #230
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IMO, shero will trade staal and martin for a legitament top 6 forward, top prospect, 3rd line center to replace staal and a 1st rounnd pick.
Who has the assets to make a trade like that?
Columbus
Wild
Toronto
Chicago
Calagry
Buffalo
IMO, Toronto has the best assets and thats where staal will end up.

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05-27-2012, 06:43 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by mr sidney crosby View Post
IMO, shero will trade staal and martin for a legitament top 6 forward, top prospect, 3rd line center to replace staal and a 1st rounnd pick.
Who has the assets to make a trade like that?
Columbus
Wild
Toronto
Chicago
Calagry
Buffalo
IMO, Toronto has the best assets and thats where staal will end up.
J.Staal isn't Rick Nash; and a lot of GMs don't want Martin's salary. So, I seriously doubt the Pens get that package.

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05-27-2012, 06:46 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by jeromeo87 View Post
J.Staal isn't Rick Nash; and a lot of GMs don't want Martin's salary. So, I seriously doubt the Pens get that package.
guess it depends on who the players are and their contracts plus where the 1st round pick is. I can't see Columbus being in for Staal though or Calgary.

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05-27-2012, 06:49 PM
  #233
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Originally Posted by jeromeo87 View Post
J.Staal isn't Rick Nash; and a lot of GMs don't want Martin's salary. So, I seriously doubt the Pens get that package.
Paul martin was one of the better defensemen in the league when he played for the devils. He's in the wrong system with the penguis. It's not like he fell off the face of the earth (or maybe he did).
According to the insider Chicago is offering Bolland, saad, and a 1st JUST for staal
So imo, both of them can get a legitament top 6 forward, top prospect, 3rd line replacement, and a 1st.

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05-27-2012, 06:50 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by wej20 View Post
guess it depends on who the players are and their contracts plus where the 1st round pick is. I can't see Columbus being in for Staal though or Calgary.
What teams would you expect to make a run at jordan staal?

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05-27-2012, 06:54 PM
  #235
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Originally Posted by mr sidney crosby View Post
IMO, shero will trade staal and martin for a legitament top 6 forward, top prospect, 3rd line center to replace staal and a 1st rounnd pick.
Who has the assets to make a trade like that?
Columbus
Wild
Toronto
Chicago
Calagry
Buffalo
IMO, Toronto has the best assets and thats where staal will end up.
I hate Toronto's assets and they have very little that intrigues me.

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05-27-2012, 06:58 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by mpp9 View Post
This is going nowhere. Why would Chicago be willing to deal Bolland++ if Staal wasn't a significant upgrade? There is in fact a big difference between the two players at this point in their careers.

Staal is coming off a far superior playoff performance. While Bolland had an awful regular season and a so-so playoffs with 3 assists. There's a reason why he's getting run out of town by many in the media and fans.
Nobody is running Bolland out of town. That would imply that we'd take a 2nd round pick to get him out of town. Everyone here has acknowledged that Staal > Bolland and we feel that Staal gives a better upgrade as a 2nd line center. Of course if you guys needed a 2nd line center you should keep Staal but in performing the task of third line center Bolland is a very adequate replacement (again Bolland is one of the top third line centers in the League.. if you disagree then you haven't been following the NHL outside Pittsburgh in the last four years). On your team Staal is a 3rd line center and will always be one. Moving Staal and replacing him with a 3rd line center that is almost as good at a cheaper rate and locked in for an additional year allows you to re-stock your prospect pool (of course none of you like Saad's game because he's not a Pittsburgh prospect but he's one of the top Winger prospects in the League). Bolland did not have an "awful" season. It's pretty clear you're just making stuff up. Malkin-Crosby-Bolland still plays to your team's strength of having the best center depth 1-2-3 but it doesn't mean you're going to be tying up 6 million dollars in your 3rd line Center slot and have no money leftover with Wingers or Defense. If you think Staal's a first line superstar it's amazing the Penguins haven't gone further in the playoffs the last three years. They should be a Dynasty by now.

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05-27-2012, 06:58 PM
  #237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mr sidney crosby View Post
IMO, shero will trade staal and martin for a legitament top 6 forward, top prospect, 3rd line center to replace staal and a 1st rounnd pick.
Who has the assets to make a trade like that?
Columbus
Wild
Toronto
Chicago
Calagry
Buffalo
IMO, Toronto has the best assets and thats where staal will end up.
I'll be shocked if he ends up in Toronto, Sid. I don't see them moving what you want.

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05-27-2012, 07:03 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by Rowdy Roddy Peeper View Post
Lecavalier, Thornton, Bertuzzi, Doan, Marleau, the Sedins.

Not coincidentally, almost all of them were high draft picks who came into the NHL right after the draft.
Lecavalier put up 60+ points in his 2nd season. It didn't take him 6+ seasons to "break out". For Doan, Bertuzzi, and the Sedins, their increase in production wasn't because they "broke out", but were simply given more icetime to produce. Going from 11-12 minutes to 16 minutes or 16 minutes to 20+.

That doesn't apply to Staal, because he's already being given 20 minutes a night and won't be given much more than that when Crosby/Malkin are playing. So expecting a "break out" similar to those players is expecting the impossible.

So you're left with Marleau and Thornton, both who had much more success before their "break out" 6th season than Staal has had. And Marleau's "break out" may very well have been the product of a combination of taking the 1st line winger role from Naslund at the same time a great playmaker like Thornton came over from Boston...in one of the highest scoring seasons of 05-06.

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05-27-2012, 07:09 PM
  #239
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I'll be shocked if he ends up in Toronto, Sid. I don't see them moving what you want.
Yeah, probably but it was an idea hopefully we don't have to move him in the first place i just feel like he doesn't belong on the 3rd line when you don't need 3 terrific centers to win a stanley cup. We did it 1 time. 1 time only! We have a chance every year and somehow we get upset in the 1st or 2nd round. I feel that we need to make some changes and make them now. Depth and defense wins championships and thats why i thought we needed to trade for some depth and i think 4 players is better then 2. (Unless its sidney crosby and evgeni malkin)

P.s how i got 4 players top 6 forward, top prospect, 3rd line center, high draft pick
P.s how i got 2 players Staal and martin

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05-27-2012, 07:10 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by mr sidney crosby View Post
Paul martin was one of the better defensemen in the league when he played for the devils. He's in the wrong system with the penguis. It's not like he fell off the face of the earth (or maybe he did).
According to the insider Chicago is offering Bolland, saad, and a 1st JUST for staal
So imo, both of them can get a legitament top 6 forward, top prospect, 3rd line replacement, and a 1st.
Nobody wants Paul Martin. He's a bad contract. Nobody wants to pay him 5 million for the next three years coming off the year he had. He wouldn't be the first player to get lazy after signing a big deal. Pittsburgh should keep him and hope he turns around. If he's being included in a Staal package be prepared to take a bad contract (albeit a lesser one) back the other way or be prepared to accept less of a package for Staal. Martin definitely doesn't add to what the other team needs to give up.

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05-27-2012, 07:14 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by mr sidney crosby View Post
What teams would you expect to make a run at jordan staal?
It's hard to say but these are the teams I think would have significant interest.

Toronto
Montreal
Buffalo
Carolina
Chicago
Tampa Bay
Anaheim
Dallas
Winnipeg
Minnesota

not all of them will want to put up the pieces to get Staal or have the right pieces but those teams seem to me to be the ones most likely to put in offers.

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05-27-2012, 07:15 PM
  #242
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You know who Sutter centered? Nodl and Dwyer. Put him with Cooke and Kennedy and his numbers will almost certainly increase.

Staal has been given more responsibility offensively as he played on the 2nd line. However, he was still the match-up option against other teams top lines. Let's not go overboard here. You realize you don't have to on the 3rd line to be used in a checking role?

Regarding Jeffrey, I'm talking about the AHL where he centered a scoring line not a checking line. Obviously he's been in the bottom 6 in the NHL.

And yes, keep stating your overall argument. I'm not arguing it. Yet again, I simply said your valuations were off and they are.
Just stop bro, you are embarrassing yourself and simply put, making things up...

First of all, Staal has not been used in a checking role for quite sometime, except for a couple dozen games spread over the last couple of years. Any Pens fan who understands assignments and roles will echo that. With Malkin and Crosby's injuries he has been asked to play a more traditional scoring role. Checking duties went to Dupuis, Park, Jeffrey, Vitale etc.

As far as Jeffrey, again you are throwing crap agt the wall and hoping it makes sense. He never played as a scoring pivot in WBS. He was the third line center, then he was moved into the top 6 his final season as a winger. So where you got the idea he played as a scoring center, beats me.

Finally, you are still beating around the bush that your post was hypocritical. I'm still trying to figure out how you can justify trying to call me out on "devaluing Sutter" then in the next breathe you blow off Jeffrey, and it is plain as day you know little about him.

So again I can't look at Sutter from a point production stand point and feel he isn't a big upgrade over Jeffrey in that manner, but you can tell me Jeffrey will never do this or that, even though you know next to nothing about him.

How's that work again?

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05-27-2012, 07:18 PM
  #243
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Nobody is running Bolland out of town. That would imply that we'd take a 2nd round pick to get him out of town. Everyone here has acknowledged that Staal > Bolland and we feel that Staal gives a better upgrade as a 2nd line center. Of course if you guys needed a 2nd line center you should keep Staal but in performing the task of third line center Bolland is a very adequate replacement (again Bolland is one of the top third line centers in the League.. if you disagree then you haven't been following the NHL outside Pittsburgh in the last four years). On your team Staal is a 3rd line center and will always be one. Moving Staal and replacing him with a 3rd line center that is almost as good at a cheaper rate and locked in for an additional year allows you to re-stock your prospect pool (of course none of you like Saad's game because he's not a Pittsburgh prospect but he's one of the top Winger prospects in the League). Bolland did not have an "awful" season. It's pretty clear you're just making stuff up. Malkin-Crosby-Bolland still plays to your team's strength of having the best center depth 1-2-3 but it doesn't mean you're going to be tying up 6 million dollars in your 3rd line Center slot and have no money leftover with Wingers or Defense. If you think Staal's a first line superstar it's amazing the Penguins haven't gone further in the playoffs the last three years. They should be a Dynasty by now.
I dont' want Dave Bolland as a key piece in a Staal trade. He was on pace for 40 pts this year, has been injury prone with two 75+ game seasons in his 5 year career and we have a guy in-house that can be our answer at 3C for a fraction of the cost.

I watch plenty of Hawks games. I know what his value is in the postseason. I'd rather us go after high potential futures or a top 6 RW as the main pieces.

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05-27-2012, 07:19 PM
  #244
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It's hard to say but these are the teams I think would have significant interest.

Toronto
Montreal
Buffalo
Carolina
Chicago
Tampa Bay
Anaheim
Dallas
Winnipeg
Minnesota

not all of them will want to put up the pieces to get Staal or have the right pieces but those teams seem to me to be the ones most likely to put in offers.
The teams i think don't have much to offer for staal is Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Winnipeg.

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05-27-2012, 07:23 PM
  #245
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I dont' want Dave Bolland as a key piece in a Staal trade. He was on pace for 40 pts this year, has been injury prone with two 75+ game seasons in his 5 year career and we have a guy in-house that can be our answer at 3C for a fraction of the cost.

I watch plenty of Hawks games. I know what his value is in the postseason. I'd rather us go after high potential futures or a top 6 RW as the main pieces.
Saad is high potential future. Do you think Hawk fans are slotting him in our top six next year for the heck of it? We have one open top six spot on the Wings and it's being reserved for Saad. This is a Playoff team we're talking about here not the Islanders.

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05-27-2012, 07:25 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by mr sidney crosby View Post
The teams i think don't have much to offer for staal is Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Winnipeg.
Montreal have the pieces (3rd overall, Subban, Pacioretty) but probably wont move them. Jets have pieces like Bogosian and Kane. Tampa could have a need if Vinny gets moved but I think you're right that they'd struggle to put can enticing package

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05-27-2012, 07:28 PM
  #247
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Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
Lecavalier put up 60+ points in his 2nd season. It didn't take him 6+ seasons to "break out". For Doan, Bertuzzi, and the Sedins, their increase in production wasn't because they "broke out", but were simply given more icetime to produce. Going from 11-12 minutes to 16 minutes or 16 minutes to 20+.

That doesn't apply to Staal, because he's already being given 20 minutes a night and won't be given much more than that when Crosby/Malkin are playing. So expecting a "break out" similar to those players is expecting the impossible.

So you're left with Marleau and Thornton, both who had much more success before their "break out" 6th season than Staal has had. And Marleau's "break out" may very well have been the product of a combination of taking the 1st line winger role from Naslund at the same time a great playmaker like Thornton came over from Boston...in one of the highest scoring seasons of 05-06.
so giving Staal power play time and better wingers wouldn't increase his production like Doan, Bertuzzi, and the Sedins?

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05-27-2012, 07:28 PM
  #248
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Originally Posted by mr sidney crosby View Post
The teams i think don't have much to offer for staal is Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Winnipeg.
They all have assets to offer. Montreal has Patches ,Tampa Purcel, Winnipeg, has Kane, Little and Bogo. It's not a question of whether they have the assets, it's whether they're willing to give up those assets. Doesn't Stamkos play center? Between him and Vinny I don't see them going after Staal.

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05-27-2012, 07:29 PM
  #249
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Saad is high potential future. Do you think Hawk fans are slotting him in our top six next year for the heck of it? We have one open top six spot on the Wings and it's being reserved for Saad. This is a Playoff team we're talking about here not the Islanders.
Again, I personally don't want Bolland back. What would you add to Saad?

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05-27-2012, 07:33 PM
  #250
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so giving Staal power play time and better wingers wouldn't increase his production like Doan, Bertuzzi, and the Sedins?
And what makes you believe either will happen? If anyone's getting better wingers, it'll be Crosby/Malkin before Staal would. And in order for Jordan to get more powerplay time, it would have to come at the cost of Crosby/Malkin getting less. And I don't see any coach making that decision.

That all being said, yes, even adding more powerplay time to Staal (or even just changing the role he's playing on the powerplay) or giving him better wingers wouldn't have the same impact that adding 4+ more minutes of icetime would.

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