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Roberto Luongo Thread (Keep all rumors/speculation here)
The only of knowing that is after the trade, when the experts break it down.
Personally, I feel anything more than Schenn/Gunnar + 2nd tier prospect to be an overpayment.
I could see Gillis having interest in something around Schenn/Gunnar + Colborne/Ashton. Something along those lines would fill a couple needs for the Canucks, although how is Gunnar on the right side?
It gets the job done without the Colton Orr tear fest the other poster was concerned with.
Hasn't stopped free agents from signing with the Rangers.
The whole thing is, it's never going to get to that point with Luongo. He has too much pride to continue playing if he can't at a high level, especially when he'll be making a fraction of the $6M he is accustomed to.
IMO, the only way Luongo's 10 year contract becomes a hindrance to whatever team holds his contract in the final 4 years is if the new CBA counts cap hits after players retire with years remaining on their contracts and they don't grandfather contracts already signed into the new CBA.
With the amount of similar contracts to Luongo's, and the high profile teams, GM's and players involved, I highly doubt they don't at least grandfather them in.
Supply and Demand makes Lou's contract less than desirable.
Also the Canucks are not going to find out what kind of player can be had at 5 (which is a pretty decent one IMO)
Yeah, his contract. I said that. It's in the post you quoted.
And I'm not holding out any hope the 5th overall comes our way if Luongo does in fact become even more masochistic than now and gets shipped off to Toronto. It's just that this Cult of the 5th Overall *cue spiritual intoning* is getting annoying. It's a bloody draft pick, not the winning lottery ticket.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chandrashekhar Limit
The only of knowing that is after the trade, when the experts break it down.
Personally, I feel anything more than Schenn/Gunnar + 2nd tier prospect to be an overpayment.
There. Now, see this? This is actually reasonable. Canucks fans (apart from one notable who spends 24/7 obsessively defending Luongo, you know who he is) aren't expecting massive return. Really. We might throw ludicrous proposals out there just to piss Leafs fans off for the most part, but most of us are actually dialed into reality enough to understand that shining star players aren't coming back this way for Luongo this offseason. Especially if he goes to the Leafs, as shining star players aren't exactly littering the streets there. My guess with that whole Gardiner + Schenn + 5th overall + case of Dom Perrignon + case of lube + autographed photograph of Karl Malden + lost Dead Sea Scroll thing that just came up was some ******* Toronto sports guy heard all the rumours and "buzz" about Lu going to zombiehockeyland and decided to put out something so stupidly overblown about it that if the deal does go down, he set the expectations so unreasonably high that Leafs fans will be going, "Awwww, Gillis wanted THAT?! Man, Burke just smoked him! WHOOO!! Go Burke!" Okay? That's probably what that was.
Now though, I'd rather Lu went just about anywhere else. Just because of all this.
Man...
*edit* ******* sets the profanity filter off now? Huh. Will find a synonym for next time.
Last edited by ProstheticConscience: 05-31-2012 at 12:57 AM.
Reason: Really?
Who thinks 2013 1st might be on the table?
Maybe if it were conditional on playoffs...
That and Kadri with maybe another b-prospect/mid pick and I'd be happy. I'd like to think we'd get more than Schenn+2nd.
So that's Gardiner, Schenn AND the 5th overall pick? Wow...I would absolutely do cartwheels over that.
I'm thinking what's more likely is Gardiner + Lombardi, or Schenn + 5th overall pick. To me that sounds much more fair and reasonable, but hey, I won't complain.
Remember the assets that Burke had traded for Kessel alone:
Leafs 2010 1st rounder (2nd overall) – Tyler Seguin
Leafs 2011 1st rounder (9th overall) – Dougie Hamilton
Leafs 2010 2nd rounder – Jared Knight
Keep in mind that after Burke had traded for Kessel, Burke then signed him to a five year $27 million contract, averaging to $5.4mil/yr. For that season, the cap was at $56.8 million while the current salary cap is at $64 million.
Some people might argue that Kessel is worth more than Luongo as Kessel is younger. However, forwards tend to hit their prime much earlier than goalies do. A forward in his twenties is most likely in his prime while a goalie hitting thirties is most likely to be playing his best as well. In addition, Luongo is much more proven than Kessel was when he was traded from Boston.
While I do think Gardiner, Schenn and the 5th overall pick seem far-fetched as a return for only Luongo, I could realistically see him net two of the three aforementioned players. Hopefully, it's Gardiner and the 5th!
Who thinks 2013 1st might be on the table?
Maybe if it were conditional on playoffs...
That and Kadri with maybe another b-prospect/mid pick and I'd be happy. I'd like to think we'd get more than Schenn+2nd.
Schenn + 2012 2nd is a good deal for Luongo considering that the Nucks have a goalie ready to start and Luongo having a long contract for his age. Getting a young, right handed D that the Nucks can use on the right side who also is very aggressive. + the 2nd which will be early (35th overall). I think that's a good deal for Luongo.
Schenn + 2012 2nd is a good deal for Luongo considering that the Nucks have a goalie ready to start and Luongo having a long contract for his age. Getting a young, right handed D that the Nucks can use on the right side who also is very aggressive. + the 2nd which will be early (35th overall). I think that's a good deal for Luongo.
I'd rather just have the 2nd than Schenn + 2nd.
His contract is worse than Ballard's because Ballard can actually play in the top 4 at the NHL level while Schenn only gets paid like he can.
Schenn + 2012 2nd is a good deal for Luongo considering that the Nucks have a goalie ready to start and Luongo having a long contract for his age. Getting a young, right handed D that the Nucks can use on the right side who also is very aggressive. + the 2nd which will be early (35th overall). I think that's a good deal for Luongo.
I'm reluctant to take on defensemen, as there's a decent chance we can sign Garrison, who's better than Schenn or Gunnar, and if we take on someone else it's less likely we can sign Schultz. All a lot of conjecture, but anyways...
The most serious long-term need for us is a potential star offenseman. Kadri is definitely a risk, but one I'd be willing to take for next year's first as well.
its pretty funny listening to these guys "the canucks are well within their right to ask for any players on the leafs roster" "the first round (5th overall) pick looks pretty good, luke schenn, jake gardiner"
patrick roy was 30 years old had 2 stanley cups to his name when he got traded, and what did he fetch for the habs?
Two under-25 year old 25-30 goal forwards (one a two-way forward, one a powerforward), and a recent French Canadian goalie first rounder (top 10) who went on to be an all-star.
If they didn't demand getting a French Canadian goalie back, they probably could have gotten more.
I'm reluctant to take on defensemen, as there's a decent chance we can sign Garrison, who's better than Schenn or Gunnar, and if we take on someone else it's less likely we can sign Schultz. All a lot of conjecture, but anyways...
The most serious long-term need for us is a potential star offenseman. Kadri is definitely a risk, but one I'd be willing to take for next year's first as well.
Considering that the Leafs have an abundance of d-men, you can pretty much guarantee that a d-man will be the main piece coming back for Luongo.
Given the size of Luongo's contract it's also probably safe to say that Vancouver will also be taking back some salary.
Komisarek + Armstrong OR Lombardi + Mid-level prospect OR 3rd/4th round pick.
Anything more and I think Burke walks away. Burke WILL NOT be overpaying for Luongo and will certainly get into a bidding war should Vancouver be fortunate to start one.
I could see Gillis having interest in something around Schenn/Gunnar + Colborne/Ashton. Something along those lines would fill a couple needs for the Canucks, although how is Gunnar on the right side?
I could see Colborne being available, but not Ashton. His style of play is very rare to find, and something we have been lacking for a LONG time. Just don't see it happening.
Hard to tell about Gunnar on the right side. I didn't see him on that side too often.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arsmaster
Then you'll be upset Burke overpaid.
No I wont be, because he knows what's better for the team more than me. Burke makes his intentions pretty clear, and we pretty much know who is not gonna be dealt. As long as he doesn't touch those pieces, I won't be terribly upset if we threw in a couple extra prospects.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProstheticConscience
We might throw ludicrous proposals out there just to piss Leafs fans off for the most part, but most of us are actually dialed into reality enough to understand that shining star players aren't coming back this way for Luongo this offseason. Especially if he goes to the Leafs, as shining star players aren't exactly littering the streets there. My guess with that whole Gardiner + Schenn + 5th overall + case of Dom Perrignon + case of lube + autographed photograph of Karl Malden + lost Dead Sea Scroll thing that just came up was some ******* Toronto sports guy heard all the rumours and "buzz" about Lu going to zombiehockeyland and decided to put out something so stupidly overblown about it that if the deal does go down, he set the expectations so unreasonably high that Leafs fans will be going, "Awwww, Gillis wanted THAT?! Man, Burke just smoked him! WHOOO!! Go Burke!" Okay? That's probably what that was.
Supply and Demand makes Lou's contract less than desirable.
Also the Canucks are not going to find out what kind of player can be had at 5 (which is a pretty decent one IMO)
How will supply/demand make Lou's contract less desirable? Given we don't know the market yet, there's no way to determine desirability.
At this point, what supply we do know is:
- there is only one #1 goaltender available this summer (2 if you consider Vokoun a #1).
The backups possibly available:
Lindback - RFA, so you only technically get his rights. Never played more than 22 NHL reg seas. games. Only posted avg. SV% behind a defense first team.
Bernier: Again, never played more than 25 NHL reg seas. games, only 16 this yr. HAs never posted a stellar SV& behind a defense first team.
Harding: UFA. 33 was the most NHL reg season games that he played. Never put up stellar SV% behind another defense first team
There's speculation Thomas and Kipper might be available. Thomas is a UFA next summer, so you're only guaranteed his services for 1 yr.
Why would CGY get rid of Kipper? If they were re-building, then I could see it, but they're not. They don't have a proven back up goalie who take the reigns next yr, he's really the only reason they got near the playoffs this yr. He won't be avaliable IMO. IF he is, a team is only guaranteed his services for 2 more yrs as he becomes a UFA.
Demand for goalie:
- Tampa Bay
- Toronto
- Columbus
- New Jersery (if Brodeur retires)
- Chicago
- Possibly: Islanders, Oilers, Washington, Florida(for short term)
That's 5, possibly up to 9 teams who need a #1 goalie (demand). At this point- that we know of - only one (maybe two) #1 goalies on the market. Odds are in favor of the team who's selling a goalie this summer.
Look at the western conference playoff teams this yr. Chicago was the only team who made the playoffs that let in more than 210 goals against. And they only got in cause they scored the 2nd most goals for in W. Conf. The Eastern conf. is significantly weaker, but come on here people. Leafs goaltenders faced the same avg # of 'shots against' per game as the Canucks team, yet Leafs still let in the most goals against in the entire league. Burke (and ever other NHL GM) knows this, he needs a #1 goaltender.
Last edited by SunshineRays: 05-31-2012 at 02:16 AM.
Just over at canuckscentral and another person is confirming the rumor in the "Luongo will waive his NTC" thread. In short, the sticking point is Gardiner. If we get Gardiner, we get Schultz. It's on the last page of the thread.
Quote:
Apparently the sticking point is Gardiner, and apparently the Fan590 was reporting Gardiner, Schenn and the 5th overall.
Yeah, I'd have to think that it would be one of Gardiner or the 5th, but not both unless there were other major pieces going to Toronto too.
I'd think so too.
However, what are some possible players going to Toronto?
Players that the fans called out:
1. Ballard
2. Raymond
3. Malhotra
However, I doubt the Leafs want any of that. Those would be just bad contracts rather than useful assets for them. So if it really is an overpayment for Luongo, don't see any of them being packaged as well.
Defenseman that could be going back the other way:
1. Tanev
2. Edler
3. Alberts
Tanev seems like a logical choice if packaged; he's cheap, has an upside, and is actually useful. If Edler was packaged with Luongo for Gardiner, Schenn and 5th overall, it might actually be a fair trade. It definitely would not be an overpayment by the Leafs. If it's for anything less, then the Leafs got the better end of the deal. Alberts is not worth much in my books, so if the Leafs are giving up a defenseman or two, we can throw him in the package just for the heck of it.
