HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > New Jersey Devils
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Player Usage Charts 2011-12

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
06-01-2012, 09:38 AM
  #1
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Nova Nation
 
Zajacs Bowl Cut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: PA/NJ
Country: United States
Posts: 42,606
vCash: 500
Player Usage Charts 2011-12

http://hockeyanalytics.com/2012/06/2...-usage-charts/

http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Resea...harts_2012.pdf

Devils are on page 37.

I know a lot of people don't like the statistical "sabremetric" approach to hockey but I find this type of stuff so interesting.

Zajacs Bowl Cut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 10:16 AM
  #2
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 12,635
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Anyone who doesn't find value in charts and metrics like this is simply ignorant. This provides very good context for how the different Devils' players were used and how well they drove the play.

And wow Cam Janssen is on an whole different level of awful.

Tallinder is a lot better than people give him credit for. Tough zone starts, tough competition, and still above water on possession.

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 10:35 AM
  #3
Saugus
Ecrasez l'infame!
 
Saugus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Connecticut
Country: United States
Posts: 97,512
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Saugus
Insane just how good of an addition Poni was. Didn't realise he was that positive a factor until now.

Saugus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 10:38 AM
  #4
Luke3026
When you're burned..
 
Luke3026's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Raritan, NJ
Posts: 1,525
vCash: 500
Quote:
Brad Mills and Cam Janssen are abjectly terrible hockey players.
I couldn't have said it better myself.

Luke3026 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 10:59 AM
  #5
Banana Sandwiches
Registered User
 
Banana Sandwiches's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Country: United States
Posts: 2,557
vCash: 500
Meh, I still think stats like these are pointless.

Banana Sandwiches is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 11:00 AM
  #6
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Nova Nation
 
Zajacs Bowl Cut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: PA/NJ
Country: United States
Posts: 42,606
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 27Niedermayer View Post
Meh, I still think stats like these are pointless.
why, though?

I am not saying they are the be all and end all (no stats are), but can't you at least admit they are helpful/interesting?

Zajacs Bowl Cut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 11:09 AM
  #7
Bleedred
Buyout bone dust
 
Bleedred's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Please buyout Zubrus
Country: United States
Posts: 39,807
vCash: 500
Haha!

''It's worth noting that Ryan Carter and Steve Bernier got to enjoy playing with Eric Boulton and Janssen on the fourth line for most of the season. The enforcers-that-enforce-little duo ensured that the fourth line would be pinned back or do nothing on offense. They were horrible on the ice and these charts show it plainly. It's bizarre that they'll likely be in the NHL; Boulton even he has another year in NJ. Lou and DeBoer only put together a competent fourth line for the playoffs. If they go back to guys like them next season, then I don't think they pay much attention to stuff like this.''

How true is this? It's like I said. Put Bernier, and Carter with a good linemate, and they are talented. Put them with a goon, and they are as useless as one. Kovy would be pretty damn useless with a goon!

Bleedred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 11:13 AM
  #8
Ilkka Pikachu
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Country: Portugal
Posts: 4,350
vCash: 500
Quote:
While Sykora has the larger adjusted Corsi value, Zubrus and Elias really drove the bus.

Ilkka Pikachu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 11:24 AM
  #9
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 12,635
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zajacs Bowl Cut View Post
why, though?

I am not saying they are the be all and end all (no stats are), but can't you at least admit they are helpful/interesting?
Because it's easier to just say "I watches the gamez, dont needz stats" than to take the time to understand the methodology behind the statistics and what they signify. People think they have an omniscient sense of what they're seeing on the ice, and unless they're a savant, they really don't. Often times stats corroborate subjective impressions, but they also reveal a lot of things that go unnoticed.

Honestly, anyone who thinks stats like zone starts and QoC are pointless is really out to lunch. How is quantifying where a player starts on the ice and the match ups he goes against pointless? Both of those things will have a big effect on the play and production of a given player.

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 11:26 AM
  #10
Bleedred
Buyout bone dust
 
Bleedred's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Please buyout Zubrus
Country: United States
Posts: 39,807
vCash: 500
I thought Sykie drove the bus! What?

Sykora was great here for us this year though. He was probably the lowest paid non entry level contract player to score that many goals, and put it that many points. $650k for a 21 goal scorer, and 45 point player? That's the best bargain in the league, and Petr Sykora was the best bargain in the league this year. It sucks it didn't work out for him in the playoffs. I'd like to see him back in though. I think he would really shut up the critics.

Bleedred is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 02:45 PM
  #11
The Great Dame
DSevs
 
The Great Dame's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NJ
Country: United States
Posts: 2,684
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Because it's easier to just say "I watches the gamez, dont needz stats" than to take the time to understand the methodology behind the statistics and what they signify. People think they have an omniscient sense of what they're seeing on the ice, and unless they're a savant, they really don't. Often times stats corroborate subjective impressions, but they also reveal a lot of things that go unnoticed.

Honestly, anyone who thinks stats like zone starts and QoC are pointless is really out to lunch. How is quantifying where a player starts on the ice and the match ups he goes against pointless? Both of those things will have a big effect on the play and production of a given player.
Eh I don't put too much stock in stats like these simply because humans are not robots, and the game of hockey is so much more than just a number or two. In no way am I saying these stats are useless, but the best way to evaluate a player is watching the game, and to not believe that is absurd.

The Great Dame is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 02:49 PM
  #12
cj225
Work in Progress...
 
cj225's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: NJ
Country: United States
Posts: 28,083
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to cj225
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Anyone who doesn't find value in charts and metrics like this is simply ignorant. This provides very good context for how the different Devils' players were used and how well they drove the play.

And wow Cam Janssen is on an whole different level of awful.

Tallinder is a lot better than people give him credit for. Tough zone starts, tough competition, and still above water on possession.
Why must you put people down? If it interests you great, if it doesn't, we shouldn't have to feel like you don't approve.

cj225 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 02:54 PM
  #13
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 12,635
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by bnots13 View Post
Eh I don't put too much stock in stats like these simply because humans are not robots, and the game of hockey is so much more than just a number or two. In no way am I saying these stats are useless, but the best way to evaluate a player is watching the game, and to not believe that is absurd.
The problem with watching a game is that no human is able to be cognizant of all the contextual factors going on at once. If a player starts 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, he's going to be on the ice for a lot more scoring chances and probably look a lot better than a player who starts 20% of his shifts in the offensive zone (interested parties should take look at the Sedins v. Manny Malhotra). Quality of competition only compounds this further.

Most people probably won't realize these discrepancies, and thus won't account for them properly when determining who their eyes tell them is the better player.

Additionally, goals are an inherently random statistic in the short term. So balancing it out with CORSI is a good way to determine who's really driving the play and maybe getting a little lucky/unlucky.

Moreover, I think these statistics will generally agree with the eye tests when we think of the best players on the ice. It's at the margins where they're most useful (which 50pt center is better? which defensive specialist is better? etc.).

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 02:58 PM
  #14
Cowbell232
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: New Jersey
Country: United States
Posts: 19,515
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
The problem with watching a game is that no human is able to be cognizant of all the contextual factors going on at once. If a player starts 70% of his shifts in the offensive zone, he's going to be on the ice for a lot more scoring chances and probably look a lot better than a player who starts 20% of his shifts in the offensive zone (interested parties should take look at the Sedins v. Manny Malhotra). Quality of competition only compounds this further.

Most people probably won't realize these discrepancies, and thus won't account for them properly when determining who their eyes tell them is the better player.

Additionally, goals are an inherently random statistic in the short term. So balancing it out with CORSI is a good way to determine who's really driving the play and maybe getting a little lucky/unlucky.

Moreover, I think these statistics will generally agree with the eye tests when we think of the best players on the ice. It's at the margins where they're most useful (which 50pt center is better? which defensive specialist is better? etc.).
You're pushing this thing real hard here, but you're also not accounting for a lot of other factors. Was someone injured? How important is the special teams effort in this? How does the stats line up with wins vs. losses? Simple charts like this aren't enough to really understand a hockey game. And no, just 'watching' for most people isn't enough either...

__________________
[size="1"]"Why I'll be a Devil forever [...] two words. Trust and respect." - Mr. Pat Burns
Cowbell232 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:06 PM
  #15
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 12,635
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowbell232 View Post
You're pushing this thing real hard here, but you're also not accounting for a lot of other factors. Was someone injured? How important is the special teams effort in this? How does the stats line up with wins vs. losses? Simple charts like this aren't enough to really understand a hockey game. And no, just 'watching' for most people isn't enough either...
What am I pushing, exactly? The use of every available element to understand a player's performance? Yes, I am.

Obviously we should always have our mind's eye on additional factors, such as individual and teammate injuries.

Zone starts and QoC are ES statistics.

Stats like CORSI correlate very well with wins and losses over a large sample size. There will be exceptions every season, that's just the nature of randomness and our still imperfect understanding of the game, but it predicts future success even better than goal differential. CORSI has predicted almost every recent collapse/dramatic ascension you can think of. The Wild this season, the Stars last season, the Devils improvement last season, Colorado missing the playoffs last year, Washington's 10-11 goal scoring drought. The list goes on.

Qoc and Zone Start % are statistics that indicate player use. They don't indicate result. So they're very simple in that regard. They're their to alter our perception of the result, based on the kind of circumstances players were utilized in.

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:07 PM
  #16
HeliDevil
Legend
 
HeliDevil's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Country: United States
Posts: 6,579
vCash: 500
interesting stats. not the end all, be all but definitely interesting to see. can't rely on it too heavily, but it certainly shows how terrible some of the players we had on our 4th line this season were

HeliDevil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:16 PM
  #17
Richer's Ghost
Global Moderator
So who's playing C?
 
Richer's Ghost's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: photoshop labor camp
Country: United States
Posts: 50,244
vCash: 313
I'm sure Pete uses analysis like this to decide what the lineup should be.

Looking back vs. looking forward.

Ready, shoot, aim?

__________________


Richer's Ghost is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:20 PM
  #18
Cowbell232
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: New Jersey
Country: United States
Posts: 19,515
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
What am I pushing, exactly? The use of every available element to understand a player's performance? Yes, I am.

Stats like CORSI correlate very well with wins and losses over a large sample size. There will be exceptions every season, that's just the nature of randomness and our still imperfect understanding of the game, but it predicts future success even better than goal differential. CORSI has predicted almost every recent collapse/dramatic ascension you can think of. The Wild this season, the Stars last season, the Devils improvement last season, Colorado missing the playoffs last year, Washington's 10-11 goal scoring drought. The list goes on.

Qoc and Zone Start % are statistics that indicate player use. They don't indicate result. So they're very simple in that regard. They're their to alter our perception of the result, based on the kind of circumstances players were utilized in.
1) Pushing the idea that CORSI/Sabremetrics are somehow the greatest thing since sliced bread. Are they cool to look at? Yes. As import as you say? Ehhh...

2) CORSI doesn't predict ****. In baseball, Sabremetrics *CAN* be used with a large enough sample size to come closer to predicting what will happen in future situations. The way hockey works, this isn't possible. Can it attempt to pick a winner? Sure, but the nature of the game dictates that the weaker matchups WON'T happen with competent coaching.

Cowbell232 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:27 PM
  #19
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 12,635
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowbell232 View Post
1) Pushing the idea that CORSI/Sabremetrics are somehow the greatest thing since sliced bread. Are they cool to look at? Yes. As import as you say? Ehhh...

2) CORSI doesn't predict ****. In baseball, Sabremetrics *CAN* be used with a large enough sample size to come closer to predicting what will happen in future situations. The way hockey works, this isn't possible. Can it attempt to pick a winner? Sure, but the nature of the game dictates that the weaker matchups WON'T happen with competent coaching.
1) How would you know they're not as important as I say? Have you taken the time to analyze them and run some regressions? Look at what the stat gurus were saying about these boom/bust teams before they boomed and busted?

I'm not claiming CORSI is the only thing to based on analysis on. However, it is a very powerful indicator that should be used in any player or team analysis.

2) Baseball is obviously a better game for statistics since it's a series of 1 on 1 matchups that get born out over a very large sample. That doesn't mean statistics like CORSI aren't incredibly useful and predictive in hockey.

I'm not sure what you mean by weaker matchups won't happen. We can see what kind of matchups have occurred, and make determines based on that.

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:29 PM
  #20
Cowbell232
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: New Jersey
Country: United States
Posts: 19,515
vCash: 500
Simply put, there are too many variables and too many things left out because hockey is so complex.

Cowbell232 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:32 PM
  #21
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 12,635
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowbell232 View Post
Simply put, there are too many variables and too many things left out because hockey is so complex.
Which is why CORSI should be utilized in addition to statistics like zone start, QoC, time on ice, etc, as well as watching games, to get a full read on a player.

However, on a team level, CORSI/Fenwick explains about 70% of winning.

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:35 PM
  #22
AfroThunder396
Lou's Secret Sauce
 
AfroThunder396's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hamburg, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 23,903
vCash: 835
The first thing any competent statistics professor will tell you is that while a number is an absolute value, the information you draw from it can vary wildly. Two sets of identical data can be used completely different based on the context they're presented in. People see what they want to see.

I find it particularly amusing that for as much as the numbers guys like to rag on Volchenkov, his CORSI was miles better than Salvador. Interesting since they were effective together on the PK, yet the stats show that when on different pairings at ES there was a huge discrepancy in CORSI despite a negligible difference in QoC.

In fact, this data suggests that Salvador was our worst second defenseman at ES (after Foster) by a considerable margin.

Guys like Clarkson, Sykora, and Ponikarovsky being classified as 'shutdown players' is laughable at any level.


Last edited by AfroThunder396: 06-01-2012 at 03:40 PM.
AfroThunder396 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 03:50 PM
  #23
Feed Me A Stray Cat
Registered User
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Posts: 12,635
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to Feed Me A Stray Cat
Quote:
Originally Posted by AfroThunder396 View Post
The first thing any competent statistics professor will tell you is that while a number is an absolute value, the information you draw from it can vary wildly. Two sets of identical data can be used completely different based on the context they're presented in. People see what they want to see.

I find it particularly amusing that for as much as the numbers guys like to rag on Volchenkov, his CORSI was miles better than Salvador. Interesting since they were effective together on the PK, yet the stats show that when on different pairings at ES there was a huge discrepancy in CORSI despite a negligible difference in QoC.

In fact, this data suggests that Salvador was our worst second defenseman at ES (after Foster) by a considerable margin.

Guys like Clarkson, Sykora, and Ponikarovsky being classified as 'shutdown players' is laughable at any level.
Once again, you would never just look at CORSI and close up shop. Not sure why so many people in this thread are intent on doing that. Indeed, people see what they want to see.

And CORSI measures puck possession, not whether a player is strictly "shutdown." Poni and Clarkson have been good puck possession players for a while now.

In regards to Salvador - he had a lot of puck luck this year. He had the highest PDO of any regular Devils defenseman at 1018 (PDO is the sum of shooting and save percentage when a player is on the ice. This number almost always regresses to 1000, except in the case of spectacular players like Sidney Crosby and Nick Lidstrom). Don't expect the same +/- next season.

Feed Me A Stray Cat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 04:09 PM
  #24
Devils Pride 26
BrickCityHockey*****
 
Devils Pride 26's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NJ
Country: United States
Posts: 927
vCash: 500
Would be cool to see how one for the playoffs would shape up.

Devils Pride 26 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
06-01-2012, 04:18 PM
  #25
AfroThunder396
Lou's Secret Sauce
 
AfroThunder396's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hamburg, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 23,903
vCash: 835
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Once again, you would never just look at CORSI and close up shop. Not sure why so many people in this thread are intent on doing that. Indeed, people see what they want to see.

And CORSI measures puck possession, not whether a player is strictly "shutdown." Poni and Clarkson have been good puck possession players for a while now.

In regards to Salvador - he had a lot of puck luck this year. He had the highest PDO of any regular Devils defenseman at 1018 (PDO is the sum of shooting and save percentage when a player is on the ice. This number almost always regresses to 1000, except in the case of spectacular players like Sidney Crosby and Nick Lidstrom). Don't expect the same +/- next season.
Perhaps I misread, but I could have sworn the opening of the PDF stated that players in Quadrant II should be classified as shutdown players.

The only things I take from this analysis is that:

-Patrik Elias had an astronomical year
-Cam Janssen and Eric Boulton were anchors to the team all season
-Mark Fayne makes everyone that he plays with look good
-Adam Henrique plays like anything but a 21 year old rookie
-Alexei Ponikarovsky and Marek Zidlicky were quality additions that made the team significantly better
-Despite his age and post-injury regression, Adam Larsson is better than a bottom pairing defenseman

AfroThunder396 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:09 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.